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Duke vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: KU -7.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: KU 36.5 – Duke 29
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($6,000) How many college basketball references are we about to hear this week? Leonard has been a pleasant surprise this season considering he was in a quarterback competition all through fall camp, now averaging 25.5 FPPG and completing over 73% of his passes. Against the only “formidable” opponent he’s faced this season, Leonard only completed 54% of his passes with one touchdown on the road at Northwestern. Numbers suggest Leonard is in play this week, facing a Kansas defense that is allowing 32.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 110th in pass play success rate.
Fade – QB Jordan Moore ($5,000) Funny to think that Moore was in a battle during fall camp with Leonard for the starting quarterback job. The sophomore has made a very successful transition to receiver, leading the Blue Devils with 13 receptions on 14 targets and has found the end-zone in each of the first three games. DraftKings lists him at quarterback unfortunately so he’s off the table.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan Waters ($3,300) There should not be an $1,800 difference between Waters and Jaylen Coleman. The Blue Devils are fourth in the ACC in rushing, and this is a near 50-50 split between the two with Coleman’s 29 attempts to Waters’ 25 attempts.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($6,100) Calhoun was a popular waiver wire selection in CFF last week, but put up a dud with a goose egg on a single target. Have to think the opponent played a part here with the 49-20 blowout over North Carolina A&T. In the two games leading up, Calhoun was tops on the team with 16 targets.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylen Coleman Like Jordan Moore, Coleman has also been a pleasant surprise where most counted him out of the running for the starting job. The junior has responded by leading the team in rushing and found the end-zone every week thus far. Of the two defensive components, Kansas has been better defending the run so far, allowing just 3.4 YPC and are 72nd in rush play success rate. Dead last in the Big 12, though, so we do believe Duke will find some running room. Aside from Moore and Calhoun, WR Eli Pancol ($3,500) is the third option in the Blue Devils’ passing game with seven receptions on 11 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,900) Daniels leads the most efficient offense in the country, scoring 53 PPG yet are just 118th in offensive plays run this season. Duke’s pass defense looks good on the surface, but who wouldn’t after having played Temple and North Carolina A&T. Against Northwestern, the Blue Devils allowed 435 passing yards and two touchdowns to Ryan Hilinski. After rushing for 123 yards and two scores last week vs. Houston, Daniels now leads the Jayhawks with 237 yards on the ground.
Fade – WR Lawrence Arnold ($6,500) Too expensive for a wide receiver on a team that is 20th in the country in rush play percentage (60%) and is averaging just 36 receiving yards per game through three weeks. Targets are spread fairly evenly amongst Kansas’ top three wideouts in Arnold, Luke Grimm ($5,600) and Quentin Skinner ($4,400), so if choosing one, I’d probably look towards the discounted options. Skinner is tops among the trio with an aDOT of 19.6.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RBs Like the Blue Devils, Kansas is distributing the volume in the backfield between Devin Neal ($7,200) and Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,500) so evenly that it depresses both players’ values. While Duke allowed over 50 fantasy points to running back Evan Hull in Week 2, the Blue Devils have been very good against the run so far, ranking 11th in rush play success rate. Again, competition faced must be considered here too, but that’s dramatic improvements from last season in the first year under a new staff. Battle of strengths on Saturday against Lance Leipold and his innovative rushing offense.
Best of the Rest – The players listed above account for over 70% of Kansas’ total production on offense so would not advise getting cute with any options beyond those.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. SMU
Point-Spread: TCU -2.5
O/U Total: 70.5
Implied Score: TCU 36.5 – SMU 34
Weather: 89 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Max Duggan ($7,100) I am ready to be hurt again. We’re still sorting out the TCU running backs and wide receivers as of now, so we must lean on the QB here in Duggan, regardless of how gross it feels. Projections sit at over 27 fantasy points and Duggan has the highest QBR rating among P5 quarterbacks after his five-touchdown performance against Tarleton. Maybe he’s taken well to the Sonny Dykes passing system?
Fade – WR Taye Barber ($5,600) Second on the team in targets (7) and second among receivers in offensive snaps played, but I’ve seen this movie way too many times before. Averaged just 6.5 FPPG in 2021 with one performance over 20 fantasy points. 12 different TCU receivers have caught a pass already this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan Hudson ($3,000) The 4-star freshman saw his first extended playing time of the season against Tarleton, leading the team with five receptions on five targets and a touchdown. FWIW, Blake Nowell ($3,000) caught three passes on four targets and played double the snaps of Hudson at the same RWR alignment. Will have to check in on this pregame if you want to invest here.
Pivot Play – WR Quentin Johnston ($7,600) You know the GIF where the dude draws a clown on his face? That’s the feeling I have when creating a lineup with QJ in it. A projected Top 10 fantasy receiver entering the year, Johnston has posted 22 yards in each of the first two games. We’ll throw out the Tarleton matchup for now considering it was a blowout of epic proportions. Against Colorado, Johnston was targeted six times and did play the most snaps of any receiver. I still want to believe its possible that QJ can replicate what previous Sonny Dykes wide receivers have done in the past, averaging 69 receptions and nine touchdowns over the last eight seasons.
Best of the Rest – RB Kendre Miller ($7,700) Over the last eight seasons, Dykes’ RB1 has averaged just 13.9 rushing attempts per game. Miller is averaging 11 attempts per over the first two games. While Miller is the best of the bunch over the likes of Emari Demarcado ($5,000) and Emani Bailey ($3,900), there’s a chance we see all three get considerable reps in the backfield. SMU is allowing 24 FPPG to opposing RB1s through three games and were gashed by Roman Hemby last week, so we wouldn’t totally discount Miller.
Injury Notes – WR Quincy Brown ($3,000) Brown caught multiple touchdowns last week, but will be out multiple games due to injury per Dykes.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – WR Rashee Rice ($8,600) Rice has become a near-lock this season regardless of his pricing. topping 130 yards receiving in all three games this season. Rice is now second in the country with 45 targets behind only UTEP’s Tyrin Smith who has played one more game. To further exemplify Rice’s importance to the offense, his 39% target share is one of the highest marks in the country, with no other SMU receiver totaling more than 14 targets.
Fade – RB TJ McDaniel ($4,200) SMU heads into Saturday looking more from the running game after averaging just 3.6 YPC vs. Maryland last week. Of the three options in the backfield, McDaniel was a distant third in offensive snaps – on the field just 15% of the time – with only five attempts.
Bargain Bin – WR Austin Upshaw ($3,500) WR has been a mess for the Mustangs beyond Rice with multiple injuries to multiple starters. Don’t know exactly if starter Jordan Kerley suffered an injury or ineffective play but it was Upshaw who wound up playing 78% of the offensive snaps with two receptions and a touchdown. There was clear separation vs. Maryland with the top three receivers a step above the others in terms of playing time.
Pivot Play – WR Jake Bailey ($6,200) The Rice transfer immediately came back from injury to play 79 of the 102 total snaps, finishing second on the team with four receptions on five targets. Huge gap between the WR1 and WR2 here, but noticeable to me how Bailey was immediately integrated back into the fold over the other receivers. Have to think there will be opportunities here with a game total over 70.
Best of the Rest – The quarterback getting Rice the football hasn’t been half bad either as QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,800) is completing over 61% of his passes and already surpassed 1,000 yards in three weeks. We don’t have a great sense of how good or bad the TCU defense is considering they’ve played Tarleton and Colorado, but Mordecai easily has the highest floor of any quarterback on the slate considering game total, SMUs struggles to run the ball and
Injury Notes – WR Beau Corrales ($3,000) is practicing this week after injuring his shoulder in fall camp. TBD on if he plays or not, so unlikely to consider him after his first few days back on the football field.