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Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -2.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: A&M 26.5 – Ark 24
Weather: 95 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Raheim Sanders ($7,400) Rocket Sanders accounts for 60% of the rushing yards accumulated by the Hogs this season and leads the SEC in rush yards per game at 143.7. Top three running back in the country too steep a statement? I know we typically think of A&M as a stout defense, but the Aggies have struggled to stop the run so far, allowing 154.3 YPG on the ground which is 83rd nationally.
Fade – WR Warren Thompson ($5,000) You’ll get the same fade play every week Arkansas is on the slate. Most offensive snaps of any Arkansas receiver, and for what? Six receptions on 11 targets and hasn’t topped 40 yards in a game yet this season. Min pricing is the only time we consider Thompson on our rosters…if that.
Bargain Bin – WR Matt Landers ($4,200) The Toledo transfer had a breakout performance last week against Missouri State with 7-123-0 on eight targets which now puts Landers second on the team with 17. Feels due for a touchdown, right? As expected, Landers is tops on the team (min 5 targets), averaging 15.1 yards per catch and aDOT of 14.3.
Pivot Play – TE Trey Knox ($4,000) Rarely will we roster a tight end in a large GPP not named Michael Mayer or Brock Bowers. And we still wouldn’t advise it here, but there’s at least an argument to be made for Knox. Leads all Arkansas skill position players in offensive snaps played and is third on the team in targets. A&M has actually struggled to defend the tight end position, allowing 10.4 FPPG to opposing TE1s.
Best of the Rest – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,000) Crazy to think a quarterback like Jefferson isn’t a lock here at $7k. What more do you want? A dual threat quarterback who’s third among SEC quarterbacks in rushing yards (169) and his efficiency ratings are off the charts, completing over 70% of his passes. Unlike the running game, the Aggies have excelled at defending the pass, allowing just 147.3 yards per game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – RB Devon Achane ($6,300) First off, what am I missing? How is A&M favored here? Homefield advantage? Arkansas is better at running the ball, passing the ball and defending the run. I digress. Similar to Rocket, anytime A&M is on the docket (hey that rhymed) Achane will be the top play. The Razorbacks haven’t been dominant defending the run, allowing 16.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 84th in rush play success rate.
Fade – QB Max Johnson ($4,700) I say this with a caveat that we should expect a better performance from Johnson in his second start with the Aggies. Mostly because he’ll get back Evan Stewart and Chris Marshall who did not play due to disciplinary reasons against Miami. The Razorbacks are 48th in pass play success rate defensively, but have been susceptible to the big play, ranking 120th in explosiveness. Might be some area to exploit in the A&M passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Evan Stewart ($3,600) Very concentrated A&M passing attack where Ainias Smith and Stewart account for 53% of the total team target share with no other receiver accounting for more than eight targets in three games. There aren’t many A&M receivers that can separate from defensive backs the way Stewart can on this roster.
Pivot Play – WR Ainias Smith ($5,900) Same argument for Stewart, just at a more expensive rate. Leads team in targets (22), receptions (14) and touchdowns (2). Smith’s yards per route run (3.16) and aDOT (10.5) are the highest marks of his career to date, and could cause problems against a leaky Arkansas secondary prone to allowing a big play or two.
Best of the Rest – n/a The three skill position players listed above account for 58% of the team’s offensive production. Nobody else for the Aggies needs to be considered aside from those listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: KU -25.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: UK 39.5 – NIU 14
Weather: 74 degrees / 19% rain / 11 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
I’d steer clear from NIU until they get into MACtion next week. Defense can’t stop a nosebleed. QB Rocky Lombardi is questionable, and likely not playing as it was Ethan Hampton leading the offense in practice as of Wednesday (Lombardi is listed atop this week’s depth chart. Lowest implied total of the slate, and that’d drop if Vegas knew that Lombardi was out.
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Levis ($8,300) Threw 37 pass attempts while also rushing for a TD against Youngstown State last week. Have to think UK is going to up the tempo against NIU after a disappointing performance prior to SEC play starting the following week. As bad as the Huskies are at defending the run, they’re worst against the pass, allowing 38.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 127th in pass play success rate.
Fade – Non-starters. Popular play to roster some backups in a possible blowout situation such as this. But what was the reason for all of the starters getting so many offensive snaps against Youngstown State? Mark Stoops not pleased with the performance of his 1s? We’d be wrong not assume that this changes much against a more formidable opponent in NIU, right?
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($4,800) Blowout situations like this are a perfect opportunity to get the talented freshmen involved. Projection of just 7.0 fantasy points doesn’t suggest we consider the 4-star receiver, but Brown saw a season-high seven targets on 43 offensive snaps against Youngstown State.
Pivot Play – RB Kavosiey Smoke ($6,100) Even in a 31-0 blowout, starting RB Kavosiey Smoke saw 62% of the Kentucky rushing attempts, finishing with 65 yards and a touchdown. Not impressive to average just 3.6 YPC against an FCS opponent and the performance of the OL has been a reason why, ranking 100th in stuff rate and 94th in line yards. Get-right opportunity? Northern Illinois is 87th in rush play success rate and allowing 21.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – WR Tayvion Robinson ($6,900) I was one of many that heavily invested in Tayvion Robinson a few weeks back against Florida, thinking he was the second coming of Wan’Dale Robinson. Expectations were overblown as Robinson saw just two targets, spending much of the game in the Kentucky backfield. The Virginia Tech transfer was utilized as expected against Youngstown State with six receptions on six targets, but tough to trust the Kentucky plan with Robinson moving forward. WR Dane Key ($6,300) looks to be the receiver to own here, finding the end-zone in each of the last three games, and leading the Wildcats with a 16.5 aDOT.
Injury Notes – n/a
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