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Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State
Point-Spread: Coastal -2.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: Coastal 33 – Georgia St 30.5
Weather: 89 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Grayson McCall ($8,000) Fine start to the year for McCall, averaging 26.2 FPPG and a completion percentage over 70%. Hence why McCall is fourth in the country in passer rating through three games. Matchup favors the junior quarterback here against a Georgia State defense that has struggled to defend the pass, allowing over 400 yards and five TDs last week to Charlotte. The Panthers are 108th in pass play success rate and allowing 29 FPPG to opposing QBs to start the year.
Fade – WR Jared Brown ($4,400) Brown was questionable last week with illness, but wound up playing 42 snaps against Buffalo. Sits second on the team in targets (12) but everything is around the line of scrimmage with a 2.7 aDOT. You need a hell of a lot more targets than what he’s getting to reach value if you’re not producing big plays.
Bargain Bin – TE Jacob Jenkins ($3,000) All offseason we were wondering if there was a candidate at tight end to replace the production of Isaiah Likely. Doesn’t seem “likely” that Coastal has a guy, but junior Jacob Jenkins has been targeted five times in the last two games, resulting in a pair of touchdowns. Played just 15 of 56 offensive snaps, though, last week vs. Buffalo as the Chants are utilizing more 3-WR sets than in year’s past.
Pivot Play – RB Reese White ($5,300) DFS players might flock to RB CJ Beasley ($4,200) after his career-day last week with 150 total yards and two touchdowns. And this is not to say we cannot roster him because we’ve seen in year’s past how Coastal will get multiple running backs involved in the offense. But his increased usage was largely due to two fumbles by White. Listening to Chadwell post-game, I don’t think this is a situation where White is going to be usurped because of the mishaps.
Best of the Rest – WR Tyson Mobley ($5,500) Don’t like relying on players at this type of price that are touchdown-dependent. And that’s what Mobley is right now. Did find the end-zone three times in the last two games but targeted just five times in the span as the third or fourth option in the passing game. WR Sam Pinckney ($6,500) is having a rebound season in the Jaivon Heiligh role,
Injury Notes – Don’t have any inside information here as to when RB Braydon Bennett ($6,100) will return to the field after missing the first three games but doesn’t sound like it will be anytime soon. HC Jamey Chadwell stated on his weekly radio show that Bennett would be out longer than expected. Shame, because Coastal needs him.
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($5,800) Tommy DeVito $3k more expensive than Darren Grainger? That’s a database glitch spitting out numbers without any common sense or rationale. The junior quarterback has looked exceptional the last two weeks, completing 65% of his passes with seven total touchdowns. Granted, that production has come against two of the worst defenses in the country in Charlotte and North Carolina, but its not as though Coastal Carolina is the steel curtain. 25-point projection at his salary makes Grainger a near lock this week.
Fade – WRs Not Named Jamari Thrash ($5,000) or Robert Lewis ($4,600) Feel free to choose whichever player your heart desires between Thrash or Lewis…or even both. But there is nobody else to consider in the Georgia State passing game as the WR duo combines for 63% of the team’s total target share. No other receiver has double digit targets. Thrash leads the team with 31 targets and tied at the top with most offensive snaps played. Lewis is not far behind in targets (21) and leads the Panthers in receiving touchdowns (4).
Bargain Bin – RB Marcus Carroll ($4,000) Carroll saw a season-high 15 attempts for 94 yards in the loss to Charlotte last week, getting more playing time than backup Jamyest Williams. Sign of things to come? Sounds like Shawn Elliott will ride the hot hand in the backfield because of the team’s depth at the position, so playing Carroll could potentially go sideways if he doesn’t produce…or someone else does.
Pivot Play – RB Jamyest Williams ($4,500) Season-lows for Williams against Charlotte with just seven carries on 18 offensive snaps, finishing third behind starter Tucker Gregg and the aforementioned Carroll. Could be a three-way split in the Georgia State backfield, but they’re all relevant because the Panthers are 17th nationally in run play percentage (62%).
Best of the Rest – RB Tucker Gregg ($4,800) Gregg leads the team, averaging 17.3 carries per game, and to his credit, has averaged over four yards a carry in each of the last two games. Seems to be the most trusted option of the three running backs by the coaches. Of the two defensive phases, the Chanticleers have been far better defending the run, allowing just 2.77 YPC and 50th in rush play success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a