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Tulane vs. Houston
Point-Spread: Hou -2.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Hou 29 – Tul 26.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Tajae Spears ($5,300) Spears’ usage by the coaching staff is odd. Just nine carries in the biggest game of the season vs. Kansas State? Was this the game-plan in trying to limit his touches for the long-term or is Spears not 100%? Regardless, we are now in conference play and Spears looked 100% against Southern Miss with 114 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Houston is 105th in rush play success rate defensively and 116th in scoring defense. In the Cougars’ defense, they’ve played multiple OT games already, but the group is not playing up to standard.
Fade – All Tulane pass-catchers. No wide receiver has more than 16% target share and Tulane has three tight ends with between 3-6 targets. WR Deuce Watts has played the most snaps of any receiver yet is sixth on the team with only five receptions on eight targets. Messy situation that I don’t want any part of.
Bargain Bin – WR Dea Dea McDougle ($3,000) All that said, if forced to choose an option, I suppose it would be the min-priced McDougle who has been consistent all year long with 10 receptions on a team-leading 17 targets. We’re getting close to the point in the year, though, where it doesn’t make much sense to be rostering $3k players anymore.
Pivot Play – QB Michael Pratt ($6,500) We’re seeing an improved version of Michael Pratt in 2022, completing 64% of his passes with seven touchdowns, but is getting pressured / sacked at a similar rate to last year which led to him getting injured. Tulane isn’t calling many designed runs for Pratt as a result, but the rushing output has been there much of the season, now with over 170 yards on the ground in the last two weeks. One of Houston’s top pass rushers suffered a season-ending injury, and the Cougars could be without their nose guard who was suspended last week.
Best of the Rest – WR Shae Wyatt ($3,900) If taking a risk on a Tulane receiver, I’d lean towards Wyatt who is a proven commodity in this offense, finishing with 33 receptions and three touchdowns a year ago. Slow start to the year but did top 100+ yards with a touchdown in Week 2 against Alcorn State. Posted 1,600 receiving yards the last time he played under offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda, so the slow start to 2022 is a bit surprising.
Injury Notes – WR Lawrence Keys ($3,500) The Notre Dame transfer was held out last week due to an unspecified injury. 11 targets in three games played.
Houston:
Top Play(s) – Nathaniel Dell ($7,300) Just another ho-hum 7-134-1 performance despite being less than 100%. Our concerns about Dell’s declining value in 2022 due to more weapons at receiver was clearly over-analyzing on our part. Still leads the team with 24 receptions, three touchdowns and a 29% target share which isn’t far off from his 2021 numbers.
Fade – TE Christian Trahan ($3,800) For reasons unbeknownst to me, Trahan has not been a factor at all in the Houston passing game this season, not seeing a single target in each of the last two weeks despite playing a full set of offensive snaps. Improved WR depth the cause? Trahan’s only running a receiving route on 78% of passing plays, compared to 84% last year. Staying in to block more?
Bargain Bin – WR Joseph Manjack ($3,800) Not someone I’m looking to play here, but nine of his 15 targets have come in the last two games. I guess the shoving incident with a teammate on the sidelines hasn’t affected his standing with the staff, but maybe enhanced it?
Pivot Play – QB Clayton Tune ($6,200) Tulane is No. 1 in yards allowed per game through the air in the country, allowing just 102 yards per game. That stat we just told you is completely irrelevant considering they’ve played Southern Miss, Kansas State and UMass. The Green Wave are 43rd in pass defense success rate and are allowing 18 FPPG to opposing QBs. Still good numbers but this isn’t a lock down secondary that we should be threatened off playing Tune this week. Tune’s numbers might actually be better if Houston wasn’t hurting themselves each game – No. 1 in the country in penalty yardage.
Best of the Rest – RB Ta’Zhawn Henry ($5,900) Will have to check in pregame on the status of Brandon Campbell who sat out last week with an ankle injury. Changes the entire dynamic of the Houston backfield whether he’s available or not. In his place, Henry rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts vs. Rice last week. Houston’s offensive line has performed well so far, but this is a tough matchup against a Tulane defense that is 7th in rush play success rate. And that’s after facing Deuce Vaughn and Frank Gore Jr. Still believe that a WR Matthew Golden ($5,100) blowup game will happen at some point – maybe now that he’s priced up to over $5k. Noticeable that his aDOT has dropped from 16.4 in the opener to now around 8.0 yards over the last three games, and his production has increased *slightly* as a result.
Injury Notes – RB Brandon Campbell ($6,200) is listed as OUT on DraftKings, but don’t believe that is his official designation this week. We’ll have to check on him, because he directly impacts Henry.
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If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.