Memphis vs FAU
- Point Spread: Memphis -13.5
- Total: 63.5
Top Play(s) – Caden Veltkamp ($7,400) hasn’t been that great of a quarterback, but his volume takes him over the top. He’s thrown 138 passes in 3 games and has 23 rushing attempts during that time. You can almost guarantee the bonus will be hit through the air especially with a game script that should only reinforce their desire to pass consistently. Buyer beware, Veltkamp has 7 interceptions against the two FBS opponents he has faced.
Easton Messer ($6,800) certainly hasn’t been the top 3 receiver that Mike thought he’d be, but it’s hard to not love his usage. His 21.7% target share doesn’t pop on paper, but it does when you realize they’ve thrown 158 times on the season. The issue with Messer is the offense hasn’t rolled as well as we thought, meaning he’s a PPR monster that just can’t find the end zone. Let’s hope they get rolling coming out of the bye week.
Bonus top play time! Sutton Smith ($7,100) appears to have a stranglehold on the RB1 position for Memphis. He’s had 3 straight games of 21+ fantasy points and is coming off his most efficient game in 2025 last week rushing for 147 yards on 12 attempts. The game script could push towards spreading the ball around a good bit, but Smith does have big play potential with 50 and 64 yard runs so far this season.
Fade – I don’t believe there is a true fade that isn’t obvious, but I do believe Xavier Terrell ($3,800) is a little sketchy. The guy had a big game in week 3 thanks to 7 receptions and a touchdown, but he was only in on 26 of the team’s 84 snaps. This means that when he was on the field, he touched the ball 50% of the time (6 rushing attempts and 7 receptions). That doesn’t feel like a number that will consistently hit.
Bargain Bin – If you’re going to throw 50+ times per game then your cheap receivers are in play. Asaad Waseem ($3,300) has the most touchdowns on the team along with the second most receptions even though he’s technically WR4 for target share. Some caution is needed as Waseem is a clear fourth in snaps and routes run on the team. Dominique Henry ($3,500) ranks third in target share and is certainly in play. There’s some upside limitations because there are a lot of cooks in the kitchen but both are easily in play thanks to the price tag and system.
Pivot Play – Brendon Lewis ($9,000) comes in with the huge price tag but with good reason. He gives us big rushing upside (100+ yards last week, 4 rushing touchdowns on the season) and has an elite matchup against Florida Atlantic. The Owls have given up 38 and 39 points to FBS teams this season (Maryland and FIU), paving the way for a huge game from Lewis. We’ve seen Lewis give us very good usage numbers with 46 and 40 opportunities in his past two games.
Injuries – N/A
Arizona vs Iowa State
- Point Spread: Iowa State -6.5
- Total: 48.5
Top Play(s) – Ismail Mahdi ($5,100) has stepped up with Kedrick Reescano injured. If that happens again then we’re going to see a heavy bit of Mahdi like in week 3 against Kansas State. In that game he ran the ball 22 times for 189 yards and added 2 receptions on top of that. The Cyclones have been fairly stout against the run but has given up 4ypc or higher in 2 of their 4 games this season.
Fade – Noah Fifita ($6,900) did give us some rushing production last week against Kansas State, but is that really something we can count on weekly? He’s a guy we expect to chuck it around but typically stay in the pocket. Iowa State’s defense has been very strong in 2025, giving up a big game to Kansas State in week 0 but giving up no more than 6.7YPA since. They’ve also given up just one passing touchdown to 4 interceptions since week 1.
You couldn’t pay me to use Carson Hansen ($7,500) at this price tag and with Abu Sama healthy and active. His usage has been as sporadic as it gets and he can’t be relied upon to score around the goalline. He has zero touchdowns on the season.
Bargain Bin – Javin Whatley ($4,400) and Chris Hunter ($3,500) are two cheap receiving options to consider in this Big 12 matchup. They’re top two in routes run, targets, and receptions on the season for the Wildcats. Whatley really is the guy to target here though after an 11 target game. Fifita is only projected to throw for 197 yards, so don’t go overboard here. Both are in play but aren’t elite options considering the tougher Iowa State matchup.
Pivot Play – Rocco Becht ($7,300) is a solid play most weeks but lacks the umph to really get excited to throw in your lineup. He’s hit 40 opportunities just once in 3 games, the opener against Kansas State. Since then we’ve seen that number drop to 32 and 30. The night slate is just 7 games, so there’s reason to consider a guy like Becht who has flashed in the past. We just need him to combine the higher rush usage in week 0 with his effectiveness of 10.6YPA like in week 3.
Injuries – Kedrick Reescano (Q), Greg Burkle (Q)
Virginia Tech vs North Carolina State
- Point Spread: NC State -10
- Total: 56.5
Top Play(s) – Oh, don’t act all surprised by Kyron Drones ($6,200) being the top guy here! The guy has 12+ rushing attempts in 3 of 4 games. He’s coming off back to back 32+ fantasy point performances, showing improvement in the passing game. Now, NC State poses as a tougher matchup than Wofford and ODU, but they’ve also given up 9.6YPA and 8.5YPA to Duke and ECU. They’ve struggled against the pass on the season. With Drones looking improved albeit in a small sample size, you have to love the potential of 40+ very quality opportunities this weekend.
The real top play is Hollywood Smothers ($9,200), but he does come with a hefty price tag. His usage is going to be 50% or better, and he’s going up against a VT run defense that gave up 7.08ypc to Vanderbilt and 6.25ypc to ODU. The Hokies simply can’t stop the run. Smothers’ usage this season has been surprising, at least to me, but now is not the time to be stubborn. He’s going to have 20+ great opportunities in this matchup.
Fade – This Ayden Greene ($6,300) price tag is kind of wild isn’t it? He hasn’t done a whole lot and while he’s a dynamic player, his aDOT is 14.9. I said Drones was improved. I didn’t say he was a brand new man. Those longer routes are going to be very volatile and unlikely to be successful with Drones under center.
Bargain Bin – The risky option here is Terion Stewart ($4,000), but boy is that risky. He’s marked as probable, but he’s been banged up all year long. Marcellus Hawkins has been unimpressive and PJ Prioleau ($3,500) seems to be a pass game threat, not one in the run game.
Pivot Play – Trying to figure out which NC State receiver has the big game this weekend is tricky, but there are interesting cheaper options. Terrell Anderson ($4,700) led the team in receiver targets against Duke and turned it into a 2-touchdown, 166 yard performance. He’d be my bet after one of the Hokies best defensive players hit the portal after the Pry firing.
Injuries – Terion Stewart (P), Wesley Grimes (Q)
Washington State vs Colorado State
- Point Spread: Colorado State -5.5
- Total: 50.5
Top Play(s) – Zevi Eckhaus ($7,000) takes the honor as the top play just because every other option here feels pretty bad. This is surprising considering Colorado State has an implied team total of 28 and Washington State is just 23. Eckhaus has a rushing touchdown in both games he’s played this season. He’s also a true gunslinger, making some nice plays against Washington but also throwing 2 interceptions. These G5 games can be fruitful on big slates due to lack of knowledge of the smaller schools and Zevi is your best bet to be on the right side of that.
Fade – Am I allowed to say everyone else? Jackson Brousseau ($6,600) gets the start at quarterback for the Rams but that doesn’t mean I like it. He looked fine against UTSA last week on limited usage. The system in theory should elevate him, but I’m not buying it yet. And because of that, the receivers are in question. Tommy Maher ($4,900) leads the team in target share at 18.3%, but he’s caught just 9 of the 17 targets he’s been thrown.
Bargain Bin – Armani Winfield ($3,600) has been a big play threat for the Rams and comes at a cheap enough cost where I’m interested. He’s averaging 11.8YPT which makes up for the fact that he’s only seen 12 targets. Don’t let the numbers fool you though! He played just 6 snaps in week 1 followed by 29 and 66. Winfield is going to end up as the WR1 for this team when it’s all said and done.
Pivot Play – With all this talk about passing games, how about looking at the RBBC that Colorado State utilizes? Jalen Dupree ($5,900) should see more usage in theory, but it’s Lloyd Avant ($4,500) that has looked better on a per carry basis. Do we see one break free and take the majority of the carries?
Injuries – Jordan Ross (Q), Jaxxon Warren (Q)
Alabama vs Georgia
- Point Spread: Georgia -3.5
- Total: 52.5
Top Play(s) – Ryan Williams ($8,000) showed out in a big way against Wisconsin last weekend, bringing down 5 passes for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ty Simpson has shown a liking to Germie Bernard this season, but in the two games both have played, Williams has just 2 less targets than Bernard. Let’s bet on the talent here and fact that Georgia was beat up by the Tennessee passing game just two weeks back.
Both Ty Simpson ($7,900) and Gunner Stockton ($7,800) are not surprisingly great options come Saturday night. Stockton is more likely to give you rushing production that helps you hit value while Simpson will use his strong receiving room to do damage. Stockton has two games of 34+ fantasy points on the season thanks to his 124 and 3 touchdowns on the ground in 2025. Simpson on the other hand hit 36.8 fantasy points at home against Wisconsin thanks to 4 passing touchdown and 382 yards through the air.
Fade – At this price, Nate Frazier ($6,700) has to be considered a fade. He has back to back games of 14 attempts, but he doesn’t seem to show off any burst. He’s also losing carries to Josh McCray around the goalline thanks to the size difference. Frazier needs to start showing some production in the passing game if he’s going to lose snaps to 2-3 other running backs like he has this season.
Bargain Bin – Zachariah Branch ($4,600) has been impressive in 2025! Well, at least for a UGA receiver he’s been impressive. He has a touchdown in 2 of 3 games this season and leads the team with a 16.7% target rate. To feel really great about this play, you need it to be a bit of a shootout. Vegas has this one a field goal difference and in the low 50s, so not a bad start towards that hope.
Pivot Play – Nothing says low ownership pivot like rostering a running back coming off injury against Georgia. Jam Miller ($6,400) is reportedly back and will be giving it a go Saturday. This isn’t the matchup you want to start the season with, but Miller gives us a bit of a mystery box here. He ran for 4.6ypc on 145 attempts last season, so we do know he has some talent when healthy.
Injuries – Jam Miller (P)
Oregon vs Penn State
- Point Spread: Penn State -3.5
- Total: 51.5
Top Play(s) – Nicholas Singleton ($8,100) is a big play threat that hasn’t been able to break free in 2025. His receiving production is down as well with just 5 receptions in 3 games. Hopefully this is just a case of a soft schedule that turns around in this huge Big 10 matchup Saturday night. If Penn State wants to win they have to have a great performance from Singleton and they know it.
Dante Moore ($6,700) has really turned it around as an Oregon Duck. He’s coming off a 4 touchdown performance against Oregon State and showed us some rushing potential that is very intriguing from a fantasy perspective. Will we see 7 attempts happen again or is he going to stay within the pocket moving forward? Considering this matchup, I suspect it’s the former as it’ll be all hands on deck to beat the Nittany Lions.
Fade – What a fall for Drew Allar ($7,700) a guy who was once predicted to be an elite NFL Draft prospect. Now, he can’t even break 17 fantasy points against the likes of Villanova, FIU, or Nevada. He’s giving us nearly nothing on the ground and the passing volume for Penn State will never be high enough to make up for that. The only way he hits value is if he hits big on touchdown equity around the goalline, which isn’t likely considering the running back room they have.
Bargain Bin – Jayden Limar ($3,400) appears to be the clear backup RB behind Noah Whittington. If Whittington misses this game then Limar becomes a great option. Even with Whittington playing he should still see good playing time. The matchup is obviously pretty tough, but he’s looked good so far in 2025.
Would it surprise you to know that Malik Benson ($3,600) is the most targeted player ont he Oregon Ducks? Well, he’s technically tied with Dakorien Moore ($5,800), but we’ll give the tie to the veteran. Benson has near identical stats to Moore but both should be great plays on Saturday. Moore has the upside to pop a huge game while Benson is more likely to produce steady fantasy points with a limited ceiling.
Pivot Play – I know Allar isn’t all that good, but if this game turns into a bit of a shootout then it feels like a good idea to have Trebor Pena ($5,400) or Kyron Hudson ($4,800) in tournament formats. They’re tied for the lead in target share at 20.4%. I also wonder does that number rise in these bigger games? It’s worth considering a deeper look when building lineups this weekend.
Injuries – Noah Whittington (P)
Kentucky vs South Carolina
- Point Spread: South Carolina -6.5
- Total: 46.5
Top Play(s) – Let’s be stubborn and trust in LaNorris Sellers ($8,100) one more week shall we? He has ended with negative rushing yards in back to back games and even before the head injury suffered mid-way through the Vandy game, he ran for just 48 yards on 21 attempts in his first two games. Is he hurt? Is it poor play calling? Thankfully, I’ve been encouraged by his passing abilities, ending with 10.5YPA or better in the 3 games he’s finished this season.
Fade – Cutter Boley ($6,400) should not be considered in any formats period. He looked fine in week 3 but that was against Eastern Kentucky. I’m not trusting that at all with this matchup against South Carolina.
Bargain Bin – If something is up with Sellers besides the head injury then why not consider Rahsul Faison ($4,400). He ran the ball just 6 times for 5 yards against Missouri but before that had his best game of the year with 74 yards on 14 attempts. The game script points towards the run something the Wildcats have been just okay against in 2025. They’ve given up 4.37 and 4.58ypc to Eastern Michigan and Ole Miss this season.
If you want to trust the pass game more this weekend then the obvious choice is Vandrevius Jacobs ($3,800). He’s second on the team in targets but did lead the team with 8 last game turning those targets into 128 yards and a touchdown.
Pivot Play – I’m not sure where you’d want to invest in Kentucky besides Seth McGowan ($5,700). The quarterback play is pretty bad, so you have to be concerned about his upside. Will Kentucky even score 3 touchdowns? The good news is that McGowan has seen 18, 15, and 18 attempts in his first 3 games and that doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.
Injuries – Dante Dowdell (P), Michael Smith (Q)
