To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.
Kentucky vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Ole Miss 30.5 – UK 24
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,800) I don’t view any Kentucky player as being a must-play this week, and I’m tentative because the last time we promoted Robinson as the option was when he had all of one reception against Florida in Week 2. Since then, the Virginia Tech transfer has seen his utilization increase with 13 receptions on 13 targets in the last two weeks. It’s clear Robinson won’t be a 40% usage guy like Wan’Dale Robinson was a year ago but is still the best option UK has at receiver.
Fade – RB Kavosiey Smoke ($5,300) This would be a difficult matchup even if it was Smoke starting against the Rebels who are allowing just 3.18 YPC and 11th in defensive rush play success rate. Now add in Chris Rodriguez ($6,000) back into the mix after his four-game suspension and Smoke is immediately removed from our player queue.
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($4,300) With every passing week, Brown’s snap counts continue to increase along with his targets. Best performance of his young career last week against NIU with four receptions on five targets and a pair of touchdowns.
Pivot Play – QB Will Levis ($6,900) The Ole Miss secondary has played well to this point, ranking 23rd in pass play success rate and allowing just 15.0 FPPG to opposing QBs. The opposing QBs they’ve faced – Gunnar Watson, Davis Brin (got injured) and Jeff Sims. Game script sets up here for Levis being forced to throw the football, and while the production hasn’t been there, the Kentucky QB is still getting between 7-9 rushing attempts per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Dane Key ($5,700) Tied for second with Brown with 18 targets, while leading the team in touchdowns (3), aDOT (16.5) and second in yards per route run (2.74). As we mentioned with Robinson, looking like a situation where any one of the three wide receiver can pop off in a given week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($5,000) Posted in the Discord earlier this week that an “educated guess” by the Ole Miss beat writer suggested we will not see Zach Evans or Ulysses Bentley this week, meaning the 4-star freshman is about to get a heavy dose of work Saturday. The Rebels are fourth in the country in rushing, averaging 48.5 attempts per game which puts them in the top 10 nationally. Assumption as of Tuesday writing this is that Judkins and Jaxson Dart will do the heavy lifting on the ground Saturday. Kentucky is allowing just 10.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but have faced three teams in Florida, NIU and Miami (OH) that all rotate their backs.
Fade – WR Jaylon Robinson ($7,500) Kiffin stated last week that Robinson would be a go against Tulsa and wound up seeing zero snaps. Last time Robinson was healthy, he combined for just three targets while splitting reps with fellow slot receiver Jordan Watkins ($3,300). I’d invest elsewhere if wanting a piece of the Ole Miss passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Trigg ($3,400) Trigg has clearly not lived up to the preseason hype coming in with just 13 receptions in four games. But this is a player with the upside to help win a GPP even at this pricing. Trigg is still third on the team in targets (17) and on the field for 66% of offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Jaxson Dart ($7,700) Unlikely to see high ownership in a large GPP at this price and it makes sense given Ole Miss is just 11th in the SEC in passing, facing a Kentucky defense that is 11th nationally in pass play success rate. UK is also eighth in FBS, allowing only 11.0 FPPG to opposing quarterback this season. We’ll see what transpires over the week with the injuries to both Evans and Bentley, but the name that comes to mind first for who will replicate some of the missing rushing production – Dart.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Heath ($4,000) The former Mississippi State transfer leads the team in receptions (13) and targets (19), finding the end-zone in three of four games to start the year. WR Jonathan Mingo ($5,800) is second in both categories but leads the team at 3.13. yards per route run (3.13) and the highest aDOT for the Rebels at 20.7.
Injury Notes – See above on Zach Evans, Ulysses Bentley and Jaylon Robinson.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -7.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: KSU 32.5 – Tx Tech 25
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Myles Price ($5,400) This was the Myles Price we expected preseason. Opposing defenses are clearly going to game plan around keeping everything in front of them, forcing sustained drives to where maybe Donovan Smith makes a game-changing mistake. That didn’t happen against Texas, and Price was the beneficiary with 12 receptions on 16 targets.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,000) Just have to raise a player’s pricing by $1k after putting up four receptions in the last two weeks, ya just have to. Let down two games in a row by Bradley, and now his percentage of offensive snaps took a slight hit last week against the Longhorns. Coaches looking at different options? I’ll give one argument for Bradley, even though we’re fading him. Kansas State’s secondary is 107th in pass play explosiveness, and Bradley is the big-play threat on the team with an aDOT over 14.0 for the season.
Bargain Bin – WR Nehemiah Martinez ($3,000) AND J.J. Sparkman ($3,000) Everything is around the line of scrimmage for Martinez, who averaged just 0.68 yards per route run against Texas. But how many min priced players on a slate can you say have 13 receptions on 18 targets in the last three games. Hint – not many. Sparkman saw a HUGE jump against the Longhorns, playing 77 of 102 offensive snaps, far and away his season high, converting on all four of his targets. Minimal output but curious to see if this continues as the coaching staff attempts to get him on the field more.
Pivot Play – QB Donovan Smith ($7,200) Strongest performance of the season last week for Smith, throwing for 331 yards with three total touchdowns in the overtime win over the Longhorns. His 26-point projection at $7,200 means he’s in play for us, but I have some reservations. In his first road test of the year against NC State, Smith faltered with three turnovers and is now facing a Kansas State defense that leads the conferences in interceptions. The Wildcats can be beaten over the top, ranking 107th in explosiveness, but are 16th in pass play success rate defensively and the No. 2 pass defense in the conference.
Best of the Rest – Split backfield between SaRodorick Thompson ($4,900) and Tahj Brooks ($5,500) where the snaps counts are practically 50-50, but the former has been far more effective the last two weeks with over 100 rushing yards combined against NC State and Texas. Brooks has struggled to find any running room in that stretch, averaging just two yards a carry. Do we see the staff continuing to get Thompson more involved? Low-upside play with both in an offense that throws the ball 60% of the time.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Same story each week – QB Adrian Martinez ($7,800), RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,200) or bust. That duo accounts for 64% of the team’s offensive yardage gained and 11 of KSU’s 14 total touchdowns. I’m thinking this might be the Deuce Vaughn breakout week. Tech is vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball, but has been gashed by opposing RB1s so far, allowing 25.3 FPPG which is the sixth worst mark in the country. Against NC State two weeks ago, Demie Sumo really hurt the Red Raiders in the passing game with 4-93-1 coming out of the backfield, and we know Vaughn is plenty capable of that. Tech is 21st in pass play success rate and allowing just 17.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, so not sure we see Martinez do as well through the air this week. Will give a quick nod to WR Malik Knowles as a long-shot option at $4,200. 50+ receiving yards in each of the last two weeks on a combined 13 targets. Tech has allowed 22 passing plays of 15 yards or more this season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.