Clemson vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Clem -6.5
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: Clem 30 – Syra 23
Weather: Dome
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($5,900) The touchdown equity for Shipley remains a frustration, with just one rushing score compared to three for backup Phil Mafah. His touch counts last week against Florida State, though, were promising with a 19-10 advantage in rushing attempts, and a chunk of Mafah’s carries came when Shipley was forced off the field with a stinger. The Syracuse front ranks similarly to the opponent, allowing just 11.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 15th in rush D success rate. Not a must-have in your lineups, but Shipley’s increased usage last week is promising.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($4,700) The former 5-star has the stat lines of a walk-on through the first month of the season with just seven receptions on 11 targets. I’ll give Randall a slight boost in that he played 68 of 82 offensive snaps last week in Clemson’s most competitive game of the season. But he seems to be the fourth option at best in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Brown ($4,800) Antonio Williams might want to get back sooner rather than later because the freshman is pushing for that starting slot receiver job if he hasn’t won it outright already. Biggest difference for me between the two is Brown is now averaging 16.5 YPC in the last two weeks where Williams didn’t even his 11 YPC in 2022. Different system, sure, but Brown is a clear difference maker. Value obviously downgraded slightly if Williams is available Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,600) Briningstool hasn’t been the fantasy difference maker at the tight end position we expected in the preseason, but he now has three receptions in each of the last three contests. Syracuse has allowed multiple tight ends this season – Max Klare and Austin Hence – to top 11 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,500) Notable improvements each week from Klubnik, though plenty of learning on the job, such as not checking into a wide receiver screen on 4th-and-1 instead of QB sneaking up the middle. 23.4-point projection keeps Klubnik in the conversation, but a tough matchup against a Syracuse secondary that is allowing just 11.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Injury Notes – WR Antonio Williams ($5,500) Maybe there is a Clemson fan page that knows more about this situation, but as it stands now, Williams looks to be doubtful with an ankle injury. Dabo Swinney stated this week that Williams is doing everything he can to play and living in the weight room, but no official update outside of that.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($5,700) Rolling with Allen over Shrader here given the surplus of quarterbacks on the slate to spend up or down on. The Clemson defense is 29th in rush D success rate, allowing just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. What aides Allen’s value is his abilities in the passing game, now with 11 receptions on 12 targets in the last three games. Sean Tucker was featured heavily in the passing game a year ago in this matchup with five receptions and a touchdown as Syracuse ditched the run game mostly.
Fade – RB Juwaun Price ($4,700) Running room will be tough to come by for LeQuint Allen on Saturday, so we won’t even consider his backup. Allen dominates the volume share among Syracuse running backs at 54%.
Bargain Bin – WR Donovan Brown ($4,800) Increased usage from the wide receivers for the Cuse this season with Oronde Gadsden out for the season with injury. The redshirt freshman has arguably been Syracuse’s most consistent receiver since the onset of the season with at least 50 yards receiving in all four games. Tied for the team lead with 17 receptions and the most routes run of any wideout.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,400) Looking back to last season’s matchup, Shrader threw for just 170 yards and a touchdown, but accounted for 21 of the team’s 27 total carries in that game. Does Syracuse take a similar approach against this stingy Clemson front? The Tigers are allowing 18.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s, so not necessarily dominant defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Damien Alford ($5,800) Alford leads the team with 25 targets and his production has skyrocketed in the last two games with 18 of those targets coming in that span. Over 200 receiving yards in the last two weeks. WR Umari Hatcher ($5,200) is a close third in routes run for the Orange, but his production has fallen off since Week 2. Did find the end-zone against Army last week on five targets. Notable that while his production took a dip, his playing time has remained consistent. He’s on the field a lot.
Injury Notes – WR Isaiah Jones ($5,300) Was not dressed in warmups last week and we currently have a zero projection for him. Unsure of his status but is part of the four-man WR rotation when healthy. This is likely the reason for Alford’s outburst the last two games, so Jones playing would impact his value.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: A&M -6
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: A&M 30 – Ark 24
Weather: Dome
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Evan Stewart ($7,200) The concern here is only if Stewart has the same WR-QB connection with Max Johnson that he does with Conner Weigman who is now out for the season. Stewart had a season-low three receptions on three targets last week against Auburn, though the game didn’t dictate a ton of passing with Auburn being so inept offensively. Still managed to find the end-zone and is the team leader in every receiving category.
Fade – WR Ainias Smith ($5,200) Roll of the dice here in fading Smith as he’s been an integral part of the passing attack the last two games, specifically, with over 200 receiving yards on 18 targets. The issue is that all of that production came without WR/TE hybrid Noah Thomas ($5,600) in the lineup due to injury. Jimbo Fisher stated that Thomas is good to go for Saturday’s matchup, convoluting the possible target share among the secondary receivers.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Johnson ($3,800) Brotherly bonds are inseparable. And the QB-TE duo is one of actual blood brothers. Was on display last week with Johnson nabbing a 30-yard receiving TD.
Pivot Play – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,400) Fisher said Moss’ 15 carries last week were a product of the sophomore running back finally being 100% healthy. Hard to imagine that Amari Daniels ($5,400) goes by the waste side as he’s been performing well as the starter up to this point, averaging over six yards per attempt, but there was a massive disparity in rushing attempts between the two last week. Something to monitor moving forward.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Johnson ($8,200) Johnson played well in relief of Conner Weigman last week, completing 7-of-11 passes for 123 yards and two scores. The Razorbacks are only allowing 17.9 FPPG to opposing QBs this season but haven’t gone through a gauntlet of top-tier QBs. Arkansas is just 82nd in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,200) The Arkansas receiving corps was a complete unknown entering 2023 having to replace five of their top six pass catchers. The Razorbacks appear to have a legitimate WR1 now in Armstrong who has hit 70 receiving yards in three of the first four games this season. The former Division III transfer is a massive target at 6-foot-4, leading the team in targets (29), receptions (24) and his aDOT (average depth of target) is second on the team at 12.4 yards. Game environment sets up nicely as well for Armstrong, playing in a dome environment at Jerry World and with Arkansas entering a near-touchdown underdog.
Fade – RB AJ Green ($5,300) See below on injury notes.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaac TeSlaa ($4,500) Arkansas lacks considerable depth at the wide receiver position, resulting in a top-heavy target share between Armstrong and TeSlaa at 50%. If Arkansas is throwing the football, it is likely going in one of three directions between those two and the freshman tight end we’ll spotlight below. TeSlaa is averaging 13.4 YPC and a higher aDOT (13.3) than Armstrong.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,300) No surprise there was a small adjustment period with Jefferson and new offensive coordinator Dan Enos, which came to a head in the loss to BYU. Despite throwing a pair of interceptions and being sacked four times, Jefferson seemed to find a groove in the second half against LSU last week with a pair of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. The Texas A&M defense has been excellent against the pass this season, but against the one comparably offense in Miami back in Week 2, this secondary was shredded by Tyler Van Dyke.
Best of the Rest – TE Luke Hasz ($5,000) Ranks sixth among all tight ends in college football with a PFF receiving grade of 88.5 after his performance last week against LSU, now with three receiving touchdowns in the last two games. Lack of depth at receiver also contributed to Hasz mini breakout of late.
Injury Notes – RB Raheim Sanders ($5,600) We don’t have an official designation for Rocket Sanders entering Saturday’s contest, but the senior running back has participated in practice for three-straight days which is all but assuring he’ll play vs. A&M. While AJ Green has been putting up respectable numbers as the de facto starter, Sanders will retain his RB1 status. As for the matchup, I’d steer clear as A&M is allowing just 8.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and we don’t know for certain Rocket will get his normal 20 touches a game.
Florida vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -1.5
O/U Total: 44
Implied Score: UK 23 – Fla 21
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky Pearsall ($7,400) One of the higher target shares in the country at over 32% with over a third of the team’s receiving production. WR1s are averaging just 12 fantasy points a game against this Kentucky secondary, but Pearsall is arguably one of the highest floor players on the slate with at least six receptions in all four games this season. At $7.4k, it is tough to fathom spending that much with a limited ceiling. Likely less than 10% ownership in most GPPs.
Fade – QB Graham Mertz ($5,900) Self-explanatory. If you needed extra motivation to have zero exposure to Mertz, he will be facing a secondary that is allowing the third fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in all of FBS.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone below $4.5k for the Gators (and probably won’t have any exposure to Florida players in general).
Pivot Play – WR Eugene Wilson ($4,700) The 5-star freshman is back on the depth chart after missing last week with a shoulder injury. Minimal yardage to this point, but he’s still second on the team in targets (12) despite missing a game and has a 100% catch rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Roulette. One week you think Trevor Etienne is finally taking hold of the RB1 job. The next is Montrell Johnson doubling up Etienne on rushing attempts. I really do wish I had better analysis for you. And most times in these situations, it’s just best to have very limited exposure or none at all. Kentucky is allowing just 17 fantasy points combined to opposing backfields and are 40th in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Dane Key ($5,100) Playing the Kentucky wide receiver wheel of fortune is not prudent in most weeks, and probably not here either, but we know Kentucky will be forced to throw against this dominant Florida front seven. If choosing one, we’d land on Dane Key who is second on the team in targets (26) and first in routes run. If looking for a comparison, Tennessee did have multiple wide receivers hit double-digit fantasy points against the Wildcats, though they were playing from behind most of the night. Might be best to just look elsewhere for DFS options.
Fade – RB Ray Davis ($6,700) Might seem like a surprise here with our 18.4-projection, but I’ll look to other running backs on the slate. Florida has been DOMINANT against the run this season, allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing backfields and rank 2nd in rush D success rate. His prop number has moved down since the week started too.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Production is centralized here between the QB, starting RB and trio of WRs. Anyone sub $5k has a projection of three points or less.
Pivot Play – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,900) Given this is a guessing game among the Kentucky receivers, the highest-priced option in Robinson will likely see the lowest ownership of the three. Down week against Vandy last Saturday, but Robinson was streaking entering the matchup with over 200 receiving yards and three scores – albeit against G5/FCS competition. Banking on the Liam Coen slot receiver favoritism here.
Best of the Rest – WR Barion Brown ($5,600) Team leader in targets (30) though he’ll likely be matched up with Jalen Kimber, Florida’s top cornerback on the outside. QB Devin Leary ($7,000) is a last-ditch resort with just a 17-point projection. An opposing quarterback has yet to top 20 fantasy points against the Gators this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. Colorado
Point-Spread: USC -21.5
O/U Total: 73.5
Implied Score: USC 47.5 – Colo 26
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams (10,500) Stating the obvious here as Colorado is allowing 25.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and rank 126th in pass D success rate. This is the Bo Nix question from last year in that is the spend up to have Williams in the lineup worth it? I tend to lean no here as there are several running quarterbacks in the sub-$7k range that can give us 20+ fantasy points this week. Lot of eyeballs on this game Saturday, though, where Lincoln Riley might choose to spotlight his Heisman quarterback for those clicks that Colorado has been getting.
Fade – RB Austin Jones ($5,900) For whatever reason, the RB pecking order has been decided with Marshawn Lloyd ($7,600) holding a 29-10 rushing attempt advantage since Week 1. Just found it strange that this happened after Jones rushed for 54 yards and two scores in the opening game with San Jose State. Seems as though Jones didn’t necessarily lose the job…more that Lloyd won out as the more talented player. Colorado is allowing just 12.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Bargain Bin – WR Michael Jackson III ($4,100) USC will rotate seven different receivers so you can absolutely get away with playing Caleb Williams and not stacking with any of his wideouts. Jackson is one of those seven, targeted just six times this season, but played a season-high 25 offensive snaps vs. Arizona State. Risky to roster any USC receiver with how Williams spreads the ball around.
Pivot Play – WR Brenden Rice ($6,400) Revenge game as Rice heads back to Boulder where he started his playing career. Has caught a touchdown in all four games this season, including a season-high seven receptions on nine targets against Arizona State. USC doesn’t necessarily have a true WR1, but the Buffs are allowing 24.4 FPPG to opposing top wideouts this season.
Best of the Rest – USC WRs. Six different USC wideouts have been targeted 10 or more times this season, and the two that haven’t hit that mark also see considerable playing time. Mario Williams ($6,300) leads the team in targets (19) with just 14% of the target share. In line exactly with how USC has distributed the ball the last previous two seasons.
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado:
Top Play(s) – WR Jimmy Horn Jr. ($6,600) This is assuming Xavier Weaver does not play, and automatically flips to him as Colorado’s top play if he is available. Horn Jr. is tied for 15th nationally in receptions (26).
Fade – RB Dylan Edwards ($5,900) USC can be abused defensively in the running game, allowing 19 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 72nd in rush D success rate. The trouble here for Edwards is that his attempts took a steep nosedive last week against Oregon. That was largely due in part to being down by seven touchdowns, but the return of Alton McCaskill ($4,900) to the lineup makes this a crowded backfield that isn’t very effective most weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Michael Harrison ($4,500) Came in garbage time, but the WR/TE hybrid found the end-zone for the third time in the last two games vs. Oregon. USC allowed double-digit fantasy points to both P5 tight ends faced this season – Ben Yurosek and Jaylin Conyers.
Pivot Play – WR Javon Antonio ($4,600) Again, this is dependent on the status of Weaver for Saturday. Antonio will start outside, regardless, because of the injury to Travis Hunter, but will inevitably assume a higher target share if Weaver sits as well. Ran the fourth most routes among Colorado receivers last week, playing 75% of the offensive snaps.
Best of the Rest – QB Shedeur Sanders ($9,500) Sanders is closer to a fade than a play for me, especially if Xavier Weaver does not suit up. Would you believe that the USC defense is actually performing well against the pass in 2023? 27th in pass D success rate and allowing just 16.3 FPPG to opposing QBs. The question now becomes if that is sustainable against the better Pac-12 opponents? The collection of quarterbacks USC has faced includes – Drew Pyne, Justin Lamson, Chevan Cordeiro and whatever Nevada is rolling out these days.
Injury Notes – WR Xavier Weaver ($6,800) We have a projection for Weaver now, but have not seen any clarity on the situation, aside from a few social media observers that noticed Weaver at practice in a non-contact jersey and not suited up. Seems as though this will be a GTD until pregame warmups or when Pete Thamel tweets out the news.
Penn State vs. Northwestern
Point-Spread: PSU -27
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: PSU 35 – NW 9
Weather: 71 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($7,100) OR Kaytron Allen ($7,300) Notice the OR and not and/or. Just once in 16 games played together have the two scored 20+ fantasy in the same game (vs Auburn in 2022). The Wildcats have been adequate against the run this season, ranking 60th in rush D success rate and allowing 28 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. NW also allowed 198 rushing yards to a true freshman last week. Roll of the dice as to which Penn State running back will be the top scorer on Saturday – just make sure you don’t have both in your lineup.
Fade – WR Malik McClain ($4,700) Relegated to just 15 snaps against Iowa last Saturday and didn’t see a single target. With the emergence of Keandre Lambert-Smith as the team’s WR1 and Dante Cephas’ increasing rep counts, McClain appears settled in as a backup.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyler Warren ($4,500) Heavy tight end usage for both Warren and co-starter Theo Johnson, combining for 21 receptions and four touchdowns in the last three games. Warren gets the nod because he has all four of those touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WR Dante Cephas ($4,200) Penn State has brought along the Kent State transfer slowly after arriving in the Summer, and after starting against Iowa last week, Cephas is in line to start again on Saturday. Practice reports from Penn State beat writers suggest Cephas was repping at the front of practice drills this week. His 43 snaps played against the Hawkeyes was the second-most among Penn State receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($8,500) Northwestern is only allowing 19 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Sounds great, right? They’ve faced Gavin Wimsatt, Gavin Hardison and Athan Kaliakmanis. Against the one good quarterback this season – Riley Leonard – the Wildcats allowed 31 fantasy points to the Duke QB1. I think Penn State can just ground n’pound their way to victory on Saturday, but the Northwestern secondary is terrible.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northwestern:
Despite last week’s exhilarating comeback win in overtime over Minnesota, the Wildcats have the lowest implied team total on the slate facing a potential College Football Playoff opponent in Penn State. Have to spotlight WR Bryce Kirtz ($5,200) after his 215-yard and two-touchdown performance last Saturday, and game script should obviously work in his favor as a 27-point underdog. Ben Bryant completing passes against Penn State is vastly different than against Minnesota, though.
Arizona State vs. California
Point-Spread: Cal -12.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Cal 30 – ASU 17.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 25% rain / 8 mph winds
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijhah Badger ($5,700) I was going to list another player here, but more on that situation in a minute. Last time we saw Trenton Bourguet under center, it was not a pleasant outcome for the Arizona State offense, gaining just 230 total yards of offense a shutout loss to Fresno State. That said, Bourguet did start 6 for his first 8 passing before leaving the game due to injury, and we saw late last year he’s at least a capable passing option. We just need him to be adequate enough for Badger who had his best game of the season last week with 9-88-1 on 12 targets. Cal is allowing 23.8 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.
Fade – n/a. I’d probably suggest a full-team fade here rather than singling out any one specific player as everyone is priced correctly. Implied team total of 17 doesn’t suggest anyone is fully worth rostering.
Bargain Bin – TE Jalin Conyers ($4,000) Strong performance from Conyers coming back from injury last week with 71 yards on seven targets. It wasn’t all that long ago that we were touting Conyers as a potential top five fantasy tight end this season after routinely making plays in spring/fall camp. If Bourguet can be serviceable, Conyers can hit or surpass value with ease.
Pivot Play – QB Trenton Bourguet ($4,800) Arizona State is 116th nationally in pass efficiency so this would be a major risk that could sink a lineup. But we do have evidence of Bourguet performing well as a starter – albeit under a previous staff – hitting 300 passing yards three times in 2022. Very limited exposure here with such a low team total and projection, but I can see a path to hitting 15 fantasy points which would pay off his salary. Just have to hit big at the other spots in your lineup.
Best of the Rest – RB Cameron Skattebo ($6,400) If memory serves, Arizona State typically rotated their first-line starters with backups at different points during practices in previous weeks so this could be all for naught. BUT, on Wednesday’s practice report, Skattebo was seen with the second-team offense during drills. Could be something, could be nothing. Tough to imagine Arizona State doesn’t feature one of their best offensive players the week after putting up 190 yards of total offense with two scores against USC. California has been much better defending the run this season, allowing just 9.0 fantasy points to opposing RB1s.
Injury Notes – QB Drew Pyne ($5,300) Will not play and is probably out a few weeks. RB2 DeCarlos Brooks ($4,300) was not seen at practice.
California:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeremiah Hunter ($5,900) I would say that Jaydn Ott has more “break the slate” type potential, but Hunter has been the one staple of the Cal offense this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this year. 26% target share facing an Arizona State defense that gives up points in bunches, allowing 24.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season – 6th most in the country.
Fade – QB Ben Finley ($6,100) Cal opened up its QB competition again this week between Finley and Sam Jackson, and the way each played against Washington last Saturday, it’s tough not to envision the staff rolling with Jackson here. The question now becomes…do we see multiple quarterbacks in the game?
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Endries ($3,700) Tight ends aren’t frequently utilized in Jake Spavital’s offensive system, but he’s finding ways to incorporate the redshirt freshman tight end who saw his most extended playing time against Washington, finishing with 54 yards on six targets. Endries was targeted just five times in three games in the weeks prior so a longshot opportunity here that I probably wouldn’t take.
Pivot Play – WR Trond Grizzell ($4,800) Have not heard of Trond Grizzell prior to writing up this slate but intrigued by the box scores at the very least, now scoring a touchdown in each of the last two games. I don’t believe he starts ahead of Taj Davis ($5,000) but has been more productive. His snap counts have ascended with each passing week. Now sits second on the team in targets (18) behind Hunter.
Best of the Rest – RB Jadyn Ott ($8,100) Was hoping Ott wasn’t so pricey, but guess the matchup was baked into his salary. That said, Arizona State hasn’t been as dreadful against the run, ranking 81st in rush D success rate and allowing only 13.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. There was some clear rust coming back from injury, averaging just 2.9 YPC against Washington. What we haven’t seen is Ott’s impact in the receiving game with just seven targets after leading all RBs in the country last season with 46 receptions on 54 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -16.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Tex 39 – KU 22.5
Weather: 92 degrees / 17% rain / 14 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,800) Tough choice here between Daniels and Devin Neal as the top choice, as Texas has been equally adept at defending both the run and pass this season. Will side with Daniels here with Kansas being a 16-point underdog and game script working in his favor. Daniels has found success against Texas over the years, throwing five touchdowns and just one interception, scoring 20 fantasy points or more in both starts.
Fade – RB Daniel Hishaw ($4,900) Texas ranks 7th in rush D success rate and is allowing just 12.9 FPPG to opposing backfields this season. Not impenetrable, as we saw with Harrison Waylee topping 100 yards rushing earlier in the year, but not a situation to invest in the backup RB for Kansas.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering anyone below $4.9k.
Pivot Play – RB Devin Neal ($6,000) Projection puts Neal in play for his salary at 17.2 fantasy points. Texas’ defense is stingy vs. the run. Some exposure is the play, but not overboard. The Kansas offense ranks 9th in total EPA, meaning they’re one of the most efficient offenses in the country. That means everyone in play for the Jayhawks to some capacity, regardless of the opposition.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The trio of Luke Grimm, Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner are separated by just two targets between them, and because of that, none of the three are likely to be in the winning GPP lineup. Game flow likely dictates Kansas to throw the ball 30+ times, but a difficult proposition in guessing who will be the top target of the week. Grimm gets the slight nod in that he has three of the team’s seven receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($6,200) Doesn’t seem like we have to worry about the 5-star freshman stealing carries from Brooks in the immediate future with Steve Sarkisian coming out to the media this week stating Brooks has earned the opportunity to receive “the bulk” of the carries. Music to our ears. The Jayhawks are only allowing 10.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s but are 90th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,800) I don’t mean to pile on Whittington as a fade each week, but the senior slot receiver provides limited upside in an offense where he’s the fourth option at best in the passing game. Has hit double-digit fantasy points just once in his last 10 games played.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,700) Best game of the season last week for Sanders who has now hit 100 yards receiving in two of the last three games. Kansas has struggled to defend opposing tight ends so far, allowing just under 10 FPPG – 22nd highest number in the country through four games.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,700) DFS players will have most exposure to Brooks on Saturday with his pricing and the numbers aren’t bad for Kansas when defending the run in 2023. The Jayhawks have been worse against the pass, ranking 101st in pass D success rate and allowing 23.9 FPPG. A 25-point projection for $8.7k is a nice spot on this slate for a low-owned QB.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,500) One thing that hurts Worthy this week and Adonai Mitchell ($5,200) is Kansas’ ability to limit the big play, having allowed only five passing plays of over 25+ yards or more this season. Of the two, we’d favor Worthy than here knowing that as he’s tops on the team in targets (28) and receptions (19) as he’s not been as reliant on big plays to provide fantasy production. Would not stack the Texas passing game in this situation and limit it to one WR here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: UGA -14.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UGA 29.5 – Aub -15
Weather: 85 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Daijun Edwards ($6,000) Injuries have forced Edwards into a bellcow role, something he hasn’t been up to this point in his career but has played extremely well to this point with over 180 yards and three touchdowns in two games. Of the defensive components for Auburn, the run defense has been most leaky, allowing three running backs to score 13 or more fantasy points against them. Rank 86th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($8,900) Quarterback is the position to spend down on for this Main Slate, in my opinion, and not taking Beck against what is statistically the No. 7 pass defense in the country. Auburn is allowing just 9.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s in 2023, and this is Georgia’s lowest implied total of the season to date.
Bargain Bin – WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($4,900) PFF shows that Rosemy-Jacksaint did not start last week, but he’s been arguably Georgia’s best receiver to date, converting on 11 of 13 targets and averaging over 16 yards per reception. If you’ve been playing CFB DFS for a while now, you know the situation with Georgia receivers and their viability (or lack thereof).
Pivot Play – TE Brock Bowers ($5,400) Rumors of Brock Bowers not being 100% healthy look to be inaccurate after his display last week, catching all nine of his targets for 121 receiving yards and two scores. You’ll be shocked to learn that Bowers leads Georgia in all receiving categories.
Best of the Rest – WR Dominic Lovett ($5,300) The Missouri transfer is first among Georgia receivers in targets (23), receptions (17) and routes run, but we’ll be interested to see if his role changes any should Ladd McConkey make a return to the lineup. Max 1 Georgia receiver in any lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Ladd McConkey ($6,000) Sounds as though Georgia will get back their WR1 for Saturday but quotes from Kirby Smart indicate it might be in a limited role. Can’t risk that when it’s a risk in general to roster Georgia receivers. RB Kendall Milton ($5,500) likely will travel with the team but is considered a game-time decision. RB Andrew Paul ($3,600) is likely the top backup to Edwards with Roderick Robinson also out.
Auburn:
We don’t have a single Auburn player projected to score more than 9 fantasy points this weekend. Teams have taken a pass-first approach against Georgia this season, but we’re anticipating seeing multiple quarterbacks on Saturday after Payton Thorne’s disastrous performance against Texas A&M. And you definitely don’t want to invest in the Auburn pass-catchers if Robby Ashford is under center. Only way Auburn scores multiple offensive touchdowns is if Georgia is disinterested defensively – which they’ve been at times this season.
Indiana vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -14
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: MD 32 – Ind 18
Weather: 71 degrees / 16% rain / 12 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylin Lucas ($4,600) Last week you see the limitations with Lucas because of his size, rushing for just 43 yards on 13 carries. Keep him between the tackles and not in space, and Lucas is not as effective a player. More surprising in that we didn’t see Lucas get a single target against Akron, just one week after nabbing 10 receptions against Louisville. By design to keep him healthy with Josh Henderson out maybe?
Fade – QB Tayven Jackson ($6,000) If you’re looking for quarterbacks in the $6k range or lower, just look to Illinois QB1 Luke Altmyer with a substantially higher projection. Maryland is allowing just 12 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks so far.
Bargain Bin – WR Donaven McCulley ($4,100) McCulley gets a slight projection bump if EJ Williams sits out again this week. The converted quarterback played 56 of 62 offensive snaps last week, resulting in three receptions on four targets. Indiana will be throwing as a two-touchdown underdog.
Pivot Play – RB Christian Turner ($4,100) Turner is a longshot play that becomes irrelevant to us if Josh Henderson is available. Rushed for 67 yards and a score on 13 attempts last week. Maryland is a mediocre defense against the run, ranking 66th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Camper ($5,300) Camper seems 100% healthy now after playing 50 of 62 offensive snaps last week against Akron, finishing with 103 yards on eight targets. The usage is promising for fantasy production as Camper finished with a 26.8 aDOT vs. the Zips and is now averaging 19.2 yards per reception. Both are WAY up from a year ago, so Camper doesn’t need a ton of volume to hit value.
Injury Notes – Josh Henderson ($4,500) Bless the Big Ten for instituting the Inactives List rule. Likely wouldn’t have known Henderson was not playing because of it. Have not seen an update for this week, but we’ll find out two hours before game time.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,700) Difficult to choose a top play on the Maryland side as they spread the ball around amongst several pass-catchers and have a rotation of sorts in the backfield, with a potentially less than 100 percent RB1. We’ll side with the guy that has the ball in his hands 95% of the time in Baby Tua. Tagovailoa is not a priority play, though, with just a 22.3 projection facing an adequate Indiana secondary that is 37th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Antwain Littleton ($5,000) Steep price for being the RB3 for Maryland. Colby McDonald has been the more effective back of the two, with Littleton averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. The only argument in favor of Littleton is that he leads the team in red-zone rushing attempts with nine – Hemby is right behind him with 8.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($4,500) Quiet performance last week from Dyches with just one reception on four targets. Ohio State tight end Cade Stover found success against this back seven in his matchup earlier in the year, scoring 14.8 fantasy points. That’s the only team so far on the Indiana schedule that utilizes the tight end position, so we really only have one true data point.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($7,200) Disappointing performance from Hemby last week against a downtrodden Michigan State defense, rushing for just 12 yards on 10 carries. It came out after the game that Hemby was a bit limited in practice that week according to Mike Locksley. Assuming Hemby is g2g on Saturday, he’ll face an Indiana rush defense that has allowed 16 fantasy points or more to three running backs in four games. Hemby offers added value in the passing game with 13 targets on the year.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Crapshoot. Five players with between 13% – 16% of the target share. Your guess is as good as mine here. And Maryland spreads the ball around so much that it’s typically not worth doing a deep dive either.
Injury Notes – n/a.
Michigan vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: UM -17
O/U Total: 39
Implied Score: UM 28 – Neb 11
Weather: 87 degrees / 10% rain / 20 mph winds
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,300) Seeing the passing game incorporated more for the Wolverines was awesome to watch as a fan. Now hitting the road for the first time this season, I can see Michigan reverting to what they do best against an inferior opponent and that’s run the football with their RB1. Looks like hot and windy weather too on Saturday with a very low implied team total from a Michigan perspective. Nebraska grades out very well in defending the run so far but have faced three of the worst rushing teams in the country in Colorado, Louisiana Tech and NIU.
Fade – QB J.J. McCarthy ($8,500) Going to reiterate here what we said about. The low team total + weather conditions won’t attract me to rostering McCarthy in this spot at his pricing. I’ll be taking pieces from the Michigan offense to create my lineups but won’t stack. Outside of the Colorado performance, Nebraska has fared well against the pass too, allowing just one QB (Shedeur Sanders) to score more than 17 fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – TE AJ Barner ($3,100) Michigan runs a ton of 12 personnel, meaning AJ Barner and Colston Loveland are on the field together a ton, with just two receivers on the outside. Instead of suggesting a WR3 who is rarely on the field, we’ll go with a player in Barner who is playing over 60% of the offensive snaps each week. Still an extreme longshot.
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,800) Probably still at a point where Edwards is too difficult to fit in our lineups at this pricing and with the level of production he’s provided thus far in the season. That said, it was notable last week that the telecast mentioned they’d be making a concerted effort of getting Edwards more opportunities in space. Didn’t really transpire with just eight touches but had a nice 33-yard receptions on a creative play call. A breakout performance will happen at some point in 2023, just a matter of guessing which week it’ll be.
Best of the Rest – WR Roman Wilson ($5,900) and Cornelius Johnson ($5,200) Going to be the same story each week for the Michigan receivers. No other Michigan receiver has more than five targets this season, so when McCarthy does throw, it’s evident which direction the ball is going. Three receivers have already score 20 fantasy points or more against the Cornhuskers in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Billy Kemp ($4,600) Facing the Michigan pass rush, it wouldn’t surprise us to see several check downs to Nebraska’s most trustworthy receiver in Kemp who leads the team in targets (23), receptions (13) and yards (132). 14 of the 23 targets for Kemp has been with Heinrich Haarberg at quarterback.
Fade – RB Anthony Grant ($5,400) I know Grant is the last-man standing in the Nebraska backfield and had a tremendous game against Louisiana Tech last week with 135 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Louisiana Tech ain’t Michigan. The Wolverines have a ton of beef in the middle of the defensive line and the numbers show it, allowing just 6.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Fidone II ($4,000) Nebraska has five passing touchdowns this season. 60% of those have gone to Fidone, who is now second on the team in targets (13).
Pivot Play – QB Heinrich Haarberg ($6,300) Only player on the Nebraska side we have projected to score more than 13 fantasy points. Much to be desired from Haarberg as a passer, but any quarterback that rushes for over 250 yards and two touchdowns in two games should be on our radar. Not shocking since the non-conference portion of Michigan’s schedule was cupcake, but the Wolverines are allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks (8.2).
Best of the Rest – n/a. Second lowest implied team total on the slate. We wouldn’t advise rostering any Nebraska players, much less anyone not listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Purd -1
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Purd 27 – Illini 26
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Williams ($5,700) Feels like we haven’t touted Williams yet this year. As was the case a season ago, Williams offers such a high floor in DK’s full-point PPR setting, now tied for 15th in the country with 39 targets and leads the Illini with 24 receptions. Seven different receivers this season have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Purdue secondary which ranks 84th in pass D success rate.
Fade – WR Pat Bryant ($6,000) Bang for buck not worth it. Bryant is second on the team in most receiving categories, with a team-high two touchdowns, but is averaging just five targets a game. Not cost effective to have Bryant in any lineups.
Bargain Bin – RB Reggie Love ($4,200) Bret Bielema stated on Monday that Love avoided serious injury last week and that he should be back to practice on Wednesday. Assuming all goes well, Love gets a favorable matchup with a Purdue front that allowed 195 rushing yards last week to Wisconsin. RB1s are averaging over 19 FPPG vs. the Boilermakers who rank 102nd in rush D success rate. Should we catch wind that Love is limited, Josh McCray ($4,000) instantly shoots up the priority list as the two normally split carries on a weekly basis. High-level numbers don’t paint a rosy picture, but the Illinois run game has actually been effective as usual this season.
Pivot Play – QB Luke Altmyer ($5,700) I wonder if we see Altmyer get back to his running ways this week. The former Ole Miss transfer was off to a hot start with 129 rushing yards in the first two weeks. Just seven yards in the last two games. Not sure if its schematic, but the Purdue defense has allowed quarterbacks to rack up yardage on the ground recently. Tanner Mordecai had 44 yards and two scores on 14 carries last week. The game prior, Garrett Shrader went for 195 and four touchdowns on 25 attempts. A 21.3-point projection at this pricing for a dual-threat QB who has hit 20+ fantasy points in three of four games played is definitely under consideration.
Best of the Rest – WR Casey Washington ($4,600) Wide gap between Isaiah Williams and the rest of the Illini receiving corps, but they don’t rotate much this year among the top three. Washington is second in routes run on the team, and the trio of Williams/Washington/Bryant combines for 59% of the team’s target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Deion Burks ($5,700) Season-high 12 targets last week for Burks in the comeback attempt vs. Wisconsin and has now hit double-digit fantasy points in three of four games played. As we mentioned last week, Purdue does not rotate at the wide receiver spot often, with the three starters all playing over 80% of the offensive snaps. Burks has been on the field for 291 of the 298 offensive plays that Purdue has run this season.
Fade – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,400) We likely won’t know or find out pregame whether or not Mockobee is back in the good graces of the coaching staff after not starting last week, receiving just three carries in the loss to Wisconsin. The multiple fumbles in the game prior likely resulted in the benching. Personal opinion is that Mockobee is clearly the best RB on the roster, but coaches do seem intent on getting Tyrone Tracy and Dylan Downing involved as well. Can’t risk it.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,100) The 6-foot-4 redshirt freshman is tied for 10th among tight ends with 22 targets this season – 20 of which have come in just the last three games. The previous regime under Jeff Brohm knew how to recruit the position with success stories like Payne Durham and Brycen Hopkins, and Klare looks to be next in line.
Pivot Play – RB Tyrone Tracy ($5,600) While I still believe in Mockobee, Tracy acquitted himself well last week with 92 yards and a touchdown on 10 touches, averaging over 10 yards a carry. Should the coaching staff stick with last week’s rotation, Tracy will face an Illini defense that is abysmal against the run, ranking 118th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($5,200) Same arguments for Burks above apply here for Yaseen who has been a very pleasant surprise, now second on the team with 22 receptions on 32 targets. Seems as good a time as any for his first receiving touchdown of the year against a middling Big Ten defense. QB Hudson Card ($6,600) is a high floor, low ceiling play for us with just a 20-point projection. Purdue is 44th in pass play percentage, facing a defense that is allowing 19.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. I’d rather roster Altmyer of the two QBs – better pricing and better runner.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. Memphis
Point-Spread: Mem -3.5
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: Mem 32 – BSU 28
Weather: 89 degrees / 1% rain / 9 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($6,800) We’ll continue to ride the hot hand as long as George Holani is out, and it’s fairly obvious that Boise State should not turn back the clocks if/when the senior running back can return to the field. Jeanty has been the star most expected him to be, scoring 28 fantasy points or more in each of the first four weeks. Memphis is not a push over defensively, but also not the Steel Curtain against the run, ranking 59th in rush D success rate and allowing 16.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Billy Bowens ($5,000) Boise doesn’t rotate the receivers much, so there is an established top three, but Bowens is a distant third among the group that offers little upside. Has converted on just 29% of his 17 targets with a team-high three drops. I’d imagine we’ll be seeing talented freshman Prince Strachan continue to see increased reps in the hopes of taking Bowens’ job in the near future.
Bargain Bin – WR Prince Strachan ($3,200) Not necessarily advising this play as the freshman has received just three targets in four games but has seen his playing time increase in the last two weeks. With Bowens struggling as we noted above, I think we’ll see a change in the starting lineup at some point this year.
Pivot Play – WR Stefan Cobbs ($5,500) Cobbs is not the player we believed him to be a year ago, but he’s still on the field a considerable amount for 68% of the offensive snaps. Second on the team in targets (27), but we just expected him to be more of a deep threat than he’s been with an aDOT of only 8.3 yards.
Best of the Rest – QB Taylen Green ($6,200) High floor with the rushing upside of Green, but this isn’t a great matchup against a Memphis secondary that ranks No. 1 in pass D success rate. That’ll happen when facing Arkansas State and Navy this season, but the Tigers’ defense is only allowing 13.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. And Taylen Green hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency throwing the ball in 2023. WR1 Eric McAlister ($6,700) is becoming a G5 star at the wide receiver position with 230 yards and three scores in the last two games alone, now averaging 10 targets a game.
Injury Notes – RB George Holani ($5,500) Boise State beat writers have been very good about tweeting out the inactives in pregame warmups so we should find out beforehand whether he’s available. Jeanty is a lock n’load if Holani is out, and we lower our exposure only slightly to the sophomore running back if Holani is back in the lineup. Its clear who is the better player of the two.
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Watson ($6,500) This is a marginal Boise State defense Memphis will be facing on Saturday in all aspects. 71st in success rate defending the run and 75th in pass D success rate. Four running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Broncos this season already. Watson is one of the best dual-threat weapons in college football right now, leading all running backs nationally with 24 receptions on 24 targets. As has been the case with Memphis each year under HC Ryan Silverfield, the Tigers cannot run the football effectively, but Watson is such a dynamic weapon in the passing game that he’ll likely hit value as a result.
Fade – RB Sutton Smith ($5,200) Thought we were going to see a mini breakout in 2023 from the talented sophomore after his Week 1 performance with 115 yards and two touchdowns. Turns out it was just the Bethune Cookman defense. The advanced stats around the Memphis running game are pitiful once again. 111th in rush play success rate and 103rd in rush EPA per play.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone under $5k on the Memphis side.
Pivot Play – WR Roc Taylor ($6,100) Investing in Memphis receivers tends to be a crapshoot, but Taylor has emerged as the team’s top playmaker with six catches in three of the first four weeks, now leading the team with 29 targets. Boise State is not the dominant secondary it was a year ago after losing two All-Conference performers.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,000) More was expected of Henigan entering his third season as a starter, but the numbers on the stat sheet show a pretty good fantasy option, completing nearly 70% of his passes and scored 24 or more fantasy points in all four games started. Boise State is allowing 26.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season – 11th most in the country. Their secondary has regressed considerably. WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($5,400) would be the second choice behind Taylor as far as Memphis receivers to invest in, now third on the team in targets and routes run.
Injury Notes – n/a
