Iowa State vs. Houston
Point-Spread: ISU -14
O/U Total: 43
Implied Score: ISU 29.5 – Hou 15.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jayden Higgins ($5,200) Higgins leads the team in targets (20), receptions (17), routes run and has 50% of Iowa State’s receiving touchdowns, finding the end-zone in each of the first three games. Extremely top-heavy target share between Higgins and his counterpart Jaylin Noel at 50% with the next closes wide receiver having just nine targets.
Fade – RB Abu Sama ($4,800) The prop betting market appears to still think that Abu Sama is Iowa State’s RB1. While that still might be the case, this is not appearing to be a backfield that Sama has sole possession of. Eastern Michigan transfer Jaylon Jackson led the Cyclones in carries last week against Arkansas State, averaging almost a yard more per carry than Sama did. Carson Hansen also led the team with two rushing scores on the day. Houston has been very good against the run, ranked 22nd in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – RB Carson Hansen ($3,400) Headlining the game preview on the team’s 247Sports site was a spotlight section on the aforementioned Abu Sama, questioning whether his spot as RB1 on the depth chart was changing. RB Jaylon Jackson ($4,500) out-carried both Sama and Hansen on the day, but it was the latter who found paydirt twice. The 220-pound sophomore has at the very least a role on the team as Iowa State’s power back, now with five red-zone carries on the year, compared to just three for Sama. Being a double-digit favorite against a hapless Houston offense, I feel like one Iowa State RB should be in our lineups.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Noel ($5,700) Higgins will see more ownership as he has the cheaper salary with more upside. But I like to see what slot receivers have accomplished so far against this Houston defense, and the numbers look promising for Noel’s outlook this week. UNLV’s Jacob de Jesus and Oklahoma’s Deion Burks combined for 34 points against the Cougars as two of the top three highest scoring WRs to face Houston.
Best of the Rest – QB Rocco Becht ($6,300) Good, not great option this week against a good Houston defense that plays well vs. the run and the pass, ranking 51st in success rate. The Cougars are allowing just 14 fantasy points to opposing QBs having already played Brendan Sorsby, Matthew Sluka and Jackson Arnold. (You would’ve thought that was a gauntlet before the season). TE Benjamin Brahmer ($3,800) has not had a huge impact after a stellar freshman year, targeted just eight times in three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Not sure I remember a scenario where a team didn’t have a single player on DraftKings that had a salary above $5k. Speaks to how poor the Houston offense has played this season, ranked 129th in overall scoring and 124th in offensive success rate. Quarterback is eliminated from the player pool as there’s a very real chance we see both Donovan Smith and Zeon Chriss. Three-way split at running back for a team that averages just 3.5 yards per carry, no thank you. Maybe throw in a receiver like WR Joseph Manjack ($4,600), WR Stephon Johnson ($4,100) or Mekhi Mews ($3,400) who continue to run with the starters, but the Iowa State pass defense has been outstanding, ranking 21st in success rate and 18th in EPA per pass play.
Stanford vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -22.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Clem 40 – Stan 17.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 19% rain / 5 mph winds
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($6,300) Any wide receiver that can “Moss” Travis Hunter is good enough to succeed against a Clemson secondary that hasn’t been dominant to start the year, ranked 83rd in pass D success rate and 85th in EPA per pass play defensively. Five different receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points already against the Tigers.
Fade – RB Sedrick Irvin ($4,500) The one projected RB1 starter for the Cardinal has fallen to third on the depth chart, playing a season-low 29% of the snaps last week while not getting a single carry. Micah Ford and Chris Davis are just better.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,600) Third on the team in targets (11), receptions (9) and routes run. Clemson gave up 10.2 fantasy points this past weekend to NC State tight end Justin Joly.
Pivot Play – A Stanford Running Back. You wouldn’t think that’d be the case, right? But the Clemson run defense has been below average to put it lightly. 118th in rush D success rate, allowing almost 35 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields so far. That includes teams like Appalachian State and NC State who really can’t run the football that effectively in 2024. RB Chris Davis ($3,500) and Micah Ford ($4,300) had very productive games vs. Syracuse last week, combining for nearly 130 yards on the ground. Huge risk, obviously, as a three-touchdown underdog.
Best of the Rest – QB Ashton Daniels ($5,800) Daniels is relatively cheap here given his ability to run the football but have extreme doubts he’ll pay off this salary on the road against this Clemson pass rush. Quarterbacks are only averaging 16.1 FPPG so far against the Tigers, scoring almost 30% lower than their seasonal totals when facing Clemson. I was honestly not familiar with WR Ismael Cisse ($5,000) prior to watching last week’s Syracuse matchup but came away very impressed. 16 receptions on 18 targets the last two games, seemingly surpassed Tiger Bachmeier on the pecking order.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($6,600) No real explanation needed here. Mafah remains underpriced on DraftKings relative to his fantasy production. We will say, though, that Stanford’s strength is the run defense. Nothing impenetrable that we need to worry about the Clemson RB1, but the Cardinal are 74th in rush D success rate, allowing just 14.9 FPPG to opposing backfields. Still, assuming health is a non-factor, Mafah will get his weekly 15-20 touches.
Fade – RB Keith Adams ($3,600) Adams remains ahead of Jay Haynes on the official depth chart, but the latter has been far more effective with his garbage time opportunities, rushing for 40+ yards in each of the last two games.
Bargain Bin – WR TJ Moore ($3,000) The 3-star freshman played a season-high 67% of the offensive snaps last week in the blowout of NC State, topping 40 receiving yards for the second straight game. Everyone moves up the ladder with Adam Randall confirmed out this week.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,200) Getting shades of TCU’s Max Duggan right now when thinking about Cade Klubnik. The connection is offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who turned Duggan into a fantasy star in his senior season, and we’re seeing the second-year bump now with Klubnik who’s scored 83 fantasy points the last two weeks. The Stanford pass defense is not good, allowing 26 FPPG to opposing QBs this season.
Best of the Rest – Pass Catchers. Roll a dice and see which one it lands on because Klubnik is spreading the ball around with no wideout having more than 17% of the target share. Antonio Williams and Jake Briningstool are the priorities, but as many as 5-6 receivers could see playing time if this gets ugly.
Injury Notes – WR Adam Randall ($3,400) Ruled out due to injury. Cole Turner will move over to be Bryant Wesco Jr.’s backup as a result.
Georgia vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: UGA -1.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UGA 25 – Bama 23.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 15% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($6,300) I would imagine Saturday night looks like the Kentucky box score where Etienne dominated the backfield touches with 19 of the 30 rushing attempts. The Alabama run defense has been the shakier of the two defensive components, ranked 38th in success rate, and did allow multiple South Florida running backs to score double-digit fantasy points.
Fade – QB Carson Beck ($8,700) I count at least seven quarterbacks, six of which are cheaper, that I have far more interest in than Beck this week. My builds will be centered around Nussmeier, Howard and Klubnik. Alabama currently ranks No. 2 in pass D success rate and Georgia doesn’t have the skill talent overall that they’ve had in year’s past.
Bargain Bin – WR Arian Smith ($4,900) While UGA receivers still aren’t all that relevant for fantasy purposes, we’re not seeing the silly rotations that we’ve seen in year’s past. Smith has played over 75% of the offensive snaps this season and is second on the team in both targets and receptions. It was mentioned this week that explosives will win this game for either side, and Smith is the most explosive UGA wideout, averaging 22.0 YPC over his career.
Pivot Play – WR Dominic Lovett ($5,600) The senior slot receiver leads the team in all receiving categories. If looking at opponents that Alabama has faced so far this season, the two top scoring receivers – Will Pauling and Sean Atkins – to face the Tide this season both play in the slot, combining to score 31 fantasy points in their matchup.
Best of the Rest – WR Dillon Bell ($5,400) Third on the team in targets, receptions and routes run. All three starting UGA receivers play over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. WR Colbie Young ($5,100) has seen his playing time decrease since Week 1 but could be an X-factor with his size/speed combination. Limited depth behind the top three with London Humphreys out.
Injury Notes – WR London Humphreys, WR Sacovie White and RB Roderick Robinson will not play.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($9,100) Milroe sits here by default with a 25-point projection as the centerpiece of the Alabama offense. But same argument really applies here like we mentioned with Beck. Our core QB plays will be from the LSU, Ohio State and Clemson games.
Fade – WR Kobe Prentice ($5,400) This pricing doesn’t make much sense at all. Prentice is WR4 and played just 24% of the team’s snaps against Wisconsin in Week 3. Georgia’s pass defense is elite, ranking No. 9 in success rate, so we’re not all that interested in the passing game components as a whole, let alone a backup.
Bargain Bin – WR Kendrick Law ($3,900) If we’re going based on playing time, then we think DK has the salaries backwards between Prentice and Law, where the latter played 70% of the snaps in Week 3 vs. Wisconsin. Production is all that matters, and we haven’t seen it from Law, so we’d be tentative about playing him or Prentice at this point.
Pivot Play – RB Jam Miller ($6,400) Georgia hasn’t given up many fantasy points to running backs this season – with Kentucky’s Demie Sumo being the high number at 13 – but the deeper analytics don’t grade this UGA run defense as anything special, ranking 95th in success rate and 39th in EPA per rush play. Miller seems to have separated himself over Justice Haynes right now as the team’s primary ball-carrier, whereas Haynes is being utilized as a third-down option.
Best of the Rest – WR Germie Bernard ($5,500) and / or WR Ryan Williams ($6,200) Like Georgia, the Tide will need explosives in the passing game to score on the Dawgs, because this pass offense isn’t good enough to dink and dunk on 12-play scoring drives. The 5-star freshman leads the team in every receiving category, with 50% of the receiving touchdowns and averaging over 28 yards per receptions. Would have just one Bama wide receiver maximum in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -17.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: PSU 32.5 – Illini 15
Weather: 66 degrees / 33% rain / 5 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Pat Bryant ($6,400) or WR Zakhari Franklin ($5,500) Top heavy target share for the Illini with Bryant/Franklin combining for 52% and no other Illinois receiver having more than six targets on the season.
Fade – RB Kaden Feagin ($5,300) Just don’t see a pathway to success here for Feagin with how dismal the Illinois run game has been. 99th in rush success rate offensively with the sophomore back averaging just 4.48 YPC for the year. Penn State is no longer the No. 1 defense in the country at stopping the run, but still damn good up front, ranked 16th. No running back has scored more than 12 fantasy points so far against the Nittany Lions.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Arkin ($3,300) Arkin is third on the team in targets (9), playing nearly 85% of the team’s offensive snaps. In no way am I comparing Tanner Arkin to Harold Fannin, but we did see a tight end already score 30 fantasy points on this Penn State defense.
Pivot Play – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,300) Illinois will have to throw to win this game, or magically improve significantly with their run blocking in a week’s time. Altmyer was outstanding last week on the road against Nebraska, now with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions with the sixth best passer rating in the Big Ten. Penn State’s pass defense is very good, allowing just 7.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, but did give up 254 yards in that win over Bowling Green earlier in the year.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Illinois has tried like nine different WR combinations in the slot to this point with minimal success.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,700) Kaytron Allen might be more popular than Singleton on this slate because of the salary difference, but we have a massive projection gap between the two because of overall fantasy production this season. Singleton is averaging almost three yards per carry more than his counterpart. He holds a 4-1 advantage in red zone carries. And is a bigger factor in the passing game. Illinois has yet to allow a running back to score more than 11 fantasy points against them this season, so we’d limit to just one Penn State running back in a lineup.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($5,000) Why? Why is a player priced at $5k that has four targets in three games? Sure, the Ohio State transfer did start against Kent State, playing almost 90% of the offensive snaps with a season-high 60 yards receiving. But there are at least three other Penn State options we’re more interested in with the passing game, two of which are cheaper.
Bargain Bin – RB Kaytron Allen ($4,200) Allen is going to factor into a lot of DFS lineups because of this pricing. The disparity in overall talent is notable this season more than ever between Singleton and Allen, but realistically this is still a 37-35 overall split in rushing volume. 40 yards and one TD pays off Allen’s salary.
Pivot Play – WR Harrison Wallace ($5,800) Seems like forever and a minute ago that Wallace went for 117 and two scores vs. West Virginia in the opener. The junior receiver is still first in routes run and second in targets (16) for the Nittany Lions this season, and Illinois has given up several big performances already this season to wide receivers. Four wideouts have scored 14 or more fantasy points in their matchups with the Illini.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($8,500) Allar looks much improved this season with a competent offensive coordinator, completing 71% of his throws with eight TDs and one interception. Average matchup this week against the Illini who are only allowing 13 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and 78th in pass D success rate. TE Tyler Warren ($5,200) is the team leader in targets (18) and touchdowns (2). WR Omari Evans ($4,000) might be emerging as the team’s WR2 next to Wallace, with touchdowns in each of the last two games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Point-Spread: OSU -24
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: OSU 36 – MSU 12
Weather: 68 degrees / 20% rain / 8 mph winds
Michigan State:
Top Play(s) – WR Montorie Foster ($4,300) MSU might be healthier at receiver this week, but that’s still TBD. And with the depleted WR room, we saw last week how much Aidan Chiles leaned on his senior receiver, targeted 12 times on the day. Foster is now above that 30% target share threshold that we love in a fantasy receiver.
Fade – QB Aidan Chiles ($6,400) and RB Nate Carter ($4,700) Obviously a bad matchup for both. Ohio State is giving up just 8.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season – albeit against cupcake competition. This slate is fluttered with better quarterback options. There was also mention in a Michigan State article where the writer believes it’s time to make a change in the backfield where RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams ($4,400) is the starter as he’s averaging over a yard per carry more than his backfield counterpart.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($3,300) Same argument here that we wrote with Foster. Velling saw a season-high 11 targets vs. Boston College last week and was finally utilized the way he was back at Oregon State. Let’s hope that continues!
Pivot Play – See above on Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams.
Best of the Rest – WR Aziah Johnson ($3,500) If Marsh and Glover wind up not playing, Johnson is the player that benefits the most aside from Foster and Velling. Was targeted four times last week vs. BC with over 50 yards receiving for the second consecutive week.
Injury Notes – WR Nick Marsh ($4,000) and Jaron Glover ($3,600) Marsh is a game-time decision and Glover is expected back. Not the matchup to play a receiver that is not at 100%.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($7,700) I know we tend to play for upside in DFS, but I like getting safe points where I can, and Howard should be one of the safest plays on the slate aside from Garrett Nussmeier. 22 fantasy points in each of the first three games to start the season and faces a Michigan State defense that is weaker against the pass, ranked 60th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB James Peoples ($4,500) Peoples was good to us in the non-conference in blowout situations. This could be a blowout, but it’s very likely the Buckeyes lean on just Henderson, Judkins and Howard in the run game Saturday night.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($4,800) Tate is a distant third in fantasy production among the Ohio State receivers but isn’t far behind on targets (12) with a 92% catch rate and is first on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah Smith ($7,700) or WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,900) Would not stack both in a lineup, but pairing one with Howard feels like a sound strategy given the leaks on the back end of the MSU secondary. WR1s have torched the Spartans so far. Maryland’s Tai Felton went for 36 fantasy points and just this past weekend Boston College’s Lewis Bond had a season-high 22 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Would only roster one between TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins against an above average Michigan State run defense. Judkins has separated slightly with a 36-24 advantage in rushing attempts, but both are averaging over 8.0 yards per carry with nine of the team’s 13 rushing TDs. Both are viable, just wouldn’t stack both.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Alabama vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -21
O/U Total: 65
Implied Score: LSU 43 – USA 22
Weather: 81 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Gio Lopez ($7,500) South Alabama is good enough to score on LSU, so I think this is a potential game stack situation. And the centerpiece would be Lopez who is the perfect fantasy QB in that he can make plays with his arm and legs yet make enough mistakes so that we can get a back-and-forth type scoring affair. LSU has improved defensively, but the secondary is still a concern, ranking 117th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Kentrel Bullock ($4,100) The strength of the LSU defense right now is in the run game, so we’re fading South Alabama’s RB2. Maybe not the RB1, though.
Bargain Bin – WR Devin Voisin ($3,800) or WR Jeremiah Webb ($3,500) There was some intrigue as to who would be the WR1 between Jeremiah Pritchett and Devin Voisin this season, and while neither are Caullin Lacy, they’ve both been relatively productive. Voisin has a 84% catch rate, averaging close to five targets per game. They like to throw the quick hitters to him as we saw last week vs. App State which might come into play against LSU’s front. Webb played a season-high 67% of the snaps last week.
Pivot Play – RB Fluff Bothwell ($5,500) The true freshman who was the talk of college football on Twitter (X) on Thursday night with his second consecutive 100-yard performance. Kentrell Bullock is still in the mix and Braylon McReynolds will return at some point, but there’s an evident gap in terms of talent here. LSU is better defending the run but has already allowed multiple backs to hit 20+ fantasy points against them this year.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Pritchett ($6,300) Pritchett is probably just an option if stacking with Lopez as I don’t know that I’d play him solo. Still leads the team in every receiving category, averaging over seven targets per game. LSU, for as questionable as the secondary has been so far, hasn’t allowed an opposing WR to score more than 15 fantasy points this year. TE DJ Thomas-Jones ($3,200) plays 75% of the team’s offensive snaps and is fourth in routes run with three receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
LSU:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($7,900) If Vegas is accurate and South Alabama can get three touchdowns in this matchup, Nussmeier likely goes nuclear in this spot. His prop lines are already up over 320 yards this week. South Alabama’s weakness is in the secondary, ranked 113th in pass D success rate and allowed a combined 65 fantasy points to North Texas’ Chandler Morris and Ohio’s Parker Navarro.
Fade – RB Kaleb Jackson ($3,500) and WR Zavion Thomas ($3,900) Based on snap counts, these two seem to be out of the picture right now with Jackson running as RB3 and Thomas playing just 13% of snaps vs. UCLA. With Hilton back, Thomas’ stock drops further.
Bargain Bin – RB Caden Durham ($3,900) We shouldn’t have been surprised last week that a stubborn old head coach went to his veteran over a freshman, despite the latter being a significantly better player. Durham still found the end zone in the passing game but was ineffective in the run game. The freshman looks to be RB2 currently, but this is a game setting where he should find the end-zone at least once.
Pivot Play – RB Josh Williams ($4,200) Fair price for LSU’s RB1 at the moment as he got the bulk of the work against UCLA with 62 yards and a score on 13 attempts. If that volume is replicated this week, he’ll find the end-zone again most likely with such a high implied team total.
Best of the Rest – Pass-catchers. The LSU receivers are all priced properly and can choose any of Kyren Lacy, CJ Daniels or Aaron Anderson and feel good about your lineup. WR Kyle Parker ($4,200) had a feature article on an LSU site about him moving up the depth chart, but would be a risk unless this is a blowout. TE Mason Taylor ($4,500) remains the one constant among LSU pass-catchers with a team-high 25 receptions, and second in targets (30). This is a potential stack week with multiple LSU options.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Hilton ($5,000) Hilton could’ve played last week if needed but is expected to make his debut on Saturday. I don’t think we can play him at this price, mostly because of how deep the LSU WR room is looking right now with other younger pieces stepping up in his absence.
Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT -2.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: TT 30.5 – Cincy 28
Weather: Dome
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – WR Xzavier Henderson ($7,300) Cincinnati still has not found a sidekick to Henderson outside of tight end Joe Royer this season, so the WR1 continues to dominate the target share at 33%. Tech has done well so far in limiting opposing WR1s, with no wideout scoring more than 15 fantasy points against the Red Raiders this season.
Fade –See injury notes.
Bargain Bin – WR Sterling Berkhalter ($3,000) Berkhalter was a name singled out by the Cincinnati beat writer as a name trending up after the Houston game, seeing a major boost in playing time at 71% of the offensive snaps. Had 60 receiving yards on four targets. Looks like he’ll be the WR2 next to Henderson moving forward.
Pivot Play – RB Corey Kiner ($6,000) 45% of Cincinnati’s rushing attempts this season belong to Kiner who has two 100-yard rushing performances in the last three games. Tech is 66th in rush D success rate, but did allow 36 fantasy points to Cam Skattebo.
Best of the Rest – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,100) Sorsby’s production has tapered off the last two weeks, but wasn’t needed much at all in the blowout win over Houston last week. Tech is 96th in pass D success rate and gave up 33 fpts earlier in the year to Washington State QB John Mateer. This is a game where you have either Kiner in a lineup or Sorsby – don’t stack the two together. TE Joe Royer ($3,600) Second on the team with 13 receptions on 22 targets as the secondary receiving option behind Henderson. 5.2 fantasy points is the most allowed by the Tech defense so far to opposing tight ends, but they’ve faced teams like North Texas and Washington State that don’t utilize the position in the passing game.
Injury Notes – Cincinnati coverage is tough to find, and they’re chatting more about the Cincinnati Reds than the Bearcats on the message boards. One obscure comment seemed to suggest WRs Aaron Turner and Tyrin Smith may be questionable and/or out this week. They haven’t been productive enough this season to even consider so we’d fade them.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($8,000) We’re seeing the same Tahj Brooks that we did last season, now with three 100-yard rushing performances in three games. Set and forget type player that you just put in your lineup and don’t really need to worry that he’ll hit value or not. Cincinnati is 98th in rush D success rate and already allowed a 37-point performance to Pitt RB1 Desmond Reid earlier in the year.
Fade – WR Micah Hudson ($3,000) After playing a season-high 42% of the snaps in Week 3 vs. North Texas in a blowout, the 5-star freshman did not play against Arizona State is a more competitive setting. Not even worth considering despite this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Caleb Douglas ($3,700) Douglas should be about $1k more expensive after his performance against Arizona State, playing 87% of the snaps with a season-high eight targets. All Tech receivers get a boost if Josh Kelly doesn’t play or is limited. Should that happen, Drae McCray and Jordan Brown also enter the equation.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($8,300) Solid 22-point projection this week for Morton as this is finally starting to look like a Zach Kittley offense, now 11th in pass yards per game and No. 1 nationally in attempts per game. QBs are scoring 12% more fantasy points per game than their seasonal average when facing the Cincinnati defense this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Coy Eakin ($5,100) Would probably rather spend down to Caleb Douglas than roster Eakin, though he has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four games this season. The sophomore receiver is tied for second in targets and second in routes run for the Red Raiders.
Injury Notes – WR Josh Kelly ($6,600) Kelly showed up on this week’s injury report, but concerns were somewhat squashed as HC Joey McGuire said he’d be surprised if Kelly does not play on Saturday. Kelly leads the team in every receiving category, so his status is paramount to the Tech offense.
Florida State vs. SMU
Point-Spread: SMU -6.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: SMU 27 – FSU 20.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Lawrance Toafili ($4,900) From a projection standpoint, Toafili at this pricing makes some sense. I’m personally hesitant to buy-in all the way for a few reasons. SMU is solid against the run, ranking 42nd in rush D success rate and haven’t allowed a running back to score more than 14 fantasy points in a game. Secondly, it’s actually freshman RB Kam Davis ($3,400) that sits atop the depth chart and will take on the Roydell Williams / Trey Benson role in the offense. That said, you’re not breaking the bank here for Toafili and its an FSU offense that needs him with the lack of playmakers.
Fade – QB DJ Uiagalelei ($5,500) DJU apparently had a good week of practice, but we’re still not buying that translating into an actual game setting as he’s failed to score more than 12 fantasy points in a game this season. At the very least, you could make the argument that DJU isn’t getting replaced for Brock Glenn, though. Famous last words…
Bargain Bin – WR Hykeem Williams ($3,300) Major uptick in playing time last week for the former 5-star, playing 53% of the team’s snaps and is now listed as a starter on this week’s depth chart.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Benson ($4,500) Boundary receivers have given SMU some troubles this season with TCU’s Eric McAlister (23 fpts) and Jack Bech (36 fpts), along with Nevada’s Cortez Braham (16 fpts). Benson still leads the team in targets and receptions.
Best of the Rest – TE Kyle Morlock ($3,300) Is on the field more than any other Seminole skill player, has the most routes run and third on the team with 16 targets. WR Ja’Khi Douglas ($4,600) is third in routes run and second in targets (18).
Injury Notes – RB Roydell Williams ($4,500) Was not listed on the team depth chart and will miss another week with a foot injury.
SMU:
Top Play(s) – RB Brashard Smith ($6,500) The move from wide receiver at Miami to running back at SMU was a life-changing experience for Smith as he’s looking like a future NFL Draft pick in the coming year(s). With Jaylan Knighton already confirmed out, and backup LJ Johnson day-to-day, it could be another heavy workload for Smith on Saturday night. If Johnson were to sit, Smith’s backups would be another converted wide receiver in Roderick Daniels Jr. and freshman Derrick McCall.
Fade – WRs. We thought there was a chance this year that a wide receiver would separate from the group – looking at you Jordan Hudson – but this is the same dynamic from last season, and all are downgraded with Jennings at QB. Six different receivers are playing between 45-55% of the offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – n/a. If you’re desperate to roster an SMU receiver, choose the cheapest one. Little difference between the six options at this point.
Pivot Play – TE RJ Maryland ($5,500) Maryland is not the Top 10 tight end option we expected in the preseason, but this could be a good matchup against an FSU defense that has struggled to defend the position. Cal tight ends combined for 15 fantasy points last Saturday. Memphis TE1 Anthony Landphere had 17 fantasy points vs. the Seminoles.
Best of the Rest – QB Kevin Jennings ($7,600) Maybe it’s behind the scenes stuff going on, or the poor offensive line play, I don’t know. BUT, Kevin Jennings is not better than Preston Stone and I’m still baffled by this move. You’re better off spending 100-200 more for Will Howard or Garrett Nussmeier. FSU is allowing just 17.5 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, and their defensive line should be able to get after Jennings…if they’re motivated.
Injury Notes – RB LJ Johnson ($4,600) Questionable with a concussion and considered day-to-day.
