Virginia @ Miami
Point-Spread: UM -5
O/U Total: 62
Weather: 82 degrees / 13% rain / 15 mph winds
Virginia:
Brennan Armstrong is obviously a lock in our lineups, the decision comes with which to slot in him as the Captain or not. This is a matchup that obviously favors Armstrong, facing a Miami defense that is 93rd against the pass, allowing 246 yards per game and an average of 28.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this year. With literally no running game to speak of, the offense falls on Armstrong’s shoulders where he is now second in attempts per game at 45.0 and leads the Cavs with 9.25 carries a game. Zero interest in the UVA running backs because UVA is disinterested in running the football. RB1 Wayne Taulapapa was seen fully dressed at practice after missing the contest, but both he and Mike Hollins are priced too high for running backs that average less than six carries a game and have no involvement in the passing offense.
Armstrong’s volume + UVA being five-point underdogs indicates we want to stack the Virginia passing game if possible. No official updates as of Tuesday regarding tight end Jelani Woods who was seen in a walking boot around their feet/ankle areas. Will need to monitor his status in pregame. Dontayvion Wicks posted back-to-back games over 100 yards or more with four touchdowns in the last three games. He remains the team’s big-play threat with an aDOT of 19.7. Billy Kemp IV saw double digit targets in consecutive games, but suffered a case of the drops against Wake Forest (2). Ra’Shaun Henry lost his cool late in the game with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, but has 19 targets in the last two games, and played the most snaps of any WR vs. Wake Forest. Of the secondary options in the passing game, tight end Grant Misch was in on 51 of the 90 snaps against Wake Forest and saw a season-high three targets in place of Woods. 6-foot-4 freshman Malachi Fields has seen his snap counts increase over the last two games, and has six targets in that span. Not sure he would see the field in a competitive matchup. Keytaon Thompson is probably eliminated from the player pool after suffering a broken hand against UNC. Played with a cast on his hand last week, and his snap counts (40) didn’t dip as much as expected, but his reduced productivity was noticeable with two catches on three targets.
Miami:
As of writing this post on Tuesday evening, we don’t have official word whether or not D’Eriq King will play against Virginia, but sounds as though the expectation is he will not be available. So, we plan for the alternative with Tyler Van Dyke getting the nod on Thursday, though it should not surprise anyone if we also see FR Jake Garcia either as the two were deadlocked following fall camp for the QB2 job. Both players looked up to the task against Central Connecticut State last weekend, combining for 417 yards and had more TD passes (5) than incompletions (4). Favorable matchup against a UVA pass defense that has allowed eight passing touchdowns in the last two games alone, and is 94th in Pass Play Success Rate.
As bad as the pass defense has been of late, Virginia has been arguably worse at defending the run, allowing nearly 400 yards to North Carolina in Week 3 and 203 yards last week to Wake Forest. Sophomore Jaylan Knighton will return to the lineup after missing the first month due to suspension, but how ready will he be in terms of conditioning? Backups Cody Brown and Thaddius Franklin Jr. saw extended work against CCSU, combining for over 160 yards and three touchdowns, but that was a chance for Manny Diaz to get a look at Miami’s future (if he’s even around for it). My expectation is that we see a heavy dosage of starter Cam’Ron Harris as played 88 of 90 snaps in the Hurricanes’ last competitive game. No guarantees Harris or any other back will take advantage of the UVA defense as Miami. Is 125th in Stuff Rate, 124th in Line Yards and 97th in Rush Play Success Rate.
Eight different receivers saw 17 or more snaps last week, and while I think this staff will try to see some of the younger players more as the season goes along, we should get back to the normal rotations of Mike Harley and Charleston Rambo as we saw the first three games. As for who that third WR will be, is Key’Shawn Smith’s starting job in a bit of jeopardy? Played a decent amount against CCSU, but didn’t have a single target, while his backup Romello Brinson had the No. 1 play on SportsCenter following his Odell Beckham-like one-handed touchdown grab in the end-zone. Brinson’s snap counts increased between weeks 2 and 3, playing a fairly significant amount against Michigan State and then saw season-highs last week. Tight end Will Mallory has not had the season to date that we expected of him, with just eight receptions on 12 targets, but you can get formulate some really interesting lineups with him in the Captain slot, for someone that plays ¾ of games.
Become a member of theCFFsite and gain access to all exclusive DFS content, which includes all write-ups and Weekly Player Rankings/Projections. Click here for details.