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Nebraska vs. Rutgers
Point-Spread: Neb -3
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Neb 26 – Rutg 22.5
Weather: 58 degrees / 19% rain / 8 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Anthony Grant ($6,800) So much for the notion that Mark Whipple would split carries between multiple running backs as he’s done at previous stops. 32 carries in the win over Indiana, versus just six for backup Gabe Ervin Jr. This is a stingy Rutgers defense statistically, allowing under three yards a carry on the season, but coming off a performance against Ohio State where the Knights gave up 252 yards and five touchdowns – most of which to Miyan Williams. Don’t put a ton of stock into the first four games in which they limited Boston College, Iowa, Wagner and Temple – all awful rushing teams.
Fade – Gabe Ervin Jr. ($5,200) See above.
Bargain Bin – TE Travis Vokolek ($3,500) Simply the cheapest Nebraska player that I’d even consider so that’s why he’s listed, but not someone I’m targeting. Was tied with Marcus Washington for the most receiving routes run last week against Indiana, targeted four times but resulting in just one reception.
Pivot Play – QB Casey Thompson ($6,700) For such a dismal four-game slate, there are a surplus of quarterback options at our disposal. For that reason, I don’t really love Thompson in this spot but also not removing him completely. Home and away splits don’t look promising for Thompson going on the road in a night game spot. Rutgers is 33rd in pass play success rate and allowing just 17.8 FPPG to quarterbacks. I’ll sprinkle some lineups, but will be vastly underweight.
Best of the Rest – WR Trey Palmer ($6,900) Was a tough decision between Grant and Palmer for Nebraska’s top play but I’d always side with a running back destined for 20+ rushing attempts in a game where the Cornhuskers are favored. Still, Palmer is arguably the best WR option on the slate, now accounting for 31% of Nebraska’s team target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Samuel Brown ($3,000) Looks like the takeover in the Rutgers backfield has occurred with 4-star freshman Samuel Brown getting a team-high 15 carries for 79 yards in the loss to Ohio State. Nebraska is awful defending both the run and the pass, but have been worse on the ground, ranking 122nd in rush play success rate and allowing over 22 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Once we get to October, the number of times we consider min-priced players drops significantly, but this situation absolutely fits the bill.
Fade – QB Evan Simon ($5,300) HC Greg Schiano didn’t necessarily have the most glowing remarks about his current starting quarterback, practically saying the best thing he’s done is his ability to take a hit and bounce back from it. Both Gavin Wimsatt and Noah Vedral are questionable for Friday, with Schiano stating they have a plan in place for when to bring Vedral back. I’m not even considering starting a QB that threw for just 74 yards this past week against Ohio State.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – TE Johnny Langan ($4,300) Would never play a tight end at this pricing unless he’s Michael Mayer or Brock Bowers, but the Swiss army knife Langan impacts the game in a variety of ways. Second on the team in targets (22), fourth in rushing attempts (22) and is probably a better quarterback than both Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The only WR truly even worth mentioning for Rutgers may not even play on Friday (see below). Outside of that you have a smorgasbord of mediocrity between Shameen Jones, Joshua Youngblood, Chris Long and Sean Ryan who are averaging 5.2 receptions per game as an entire group.
Injury Notes – We touched on the quarterback situation above. Noah Vedral was throwing pregame last week, so he might be closer to starting. WR Aron Cruickshank ($4,800) delivered the now-infamous hit to the Ohio State punter that resulted in an ejection. We’ll see if it’s just a first-half suspension or full-game on Friday.
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