Oklahoma vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -5.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Tex 33 – OU 27.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,900) Initially was thinking that I’d be fading Gabriel, and probably still will, but his 29.8-point projection is very intriguing, particularly as a low-owned option that he’ll be on Saturday. OU is top two in every advanced passing metric this season and game script should favor Gabriel throwing the ball as a near-touchdown underdog. With how OU spreads the ball around to its pass-catchers, don’t feel the need to stack Gabriel with any Sooner receiver either. The Longhorns are allowing just 11.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s so far.
Fade – RBs. Don’t care who’s available and who isn’t, nor do I care about the prices. The RB rotations have been a mess all season, and we don’t know the status of the team’s best running back. Texas is allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing backfields and are No. 3 in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Nic Anderson ($4,800) We have seen separation in Big 12 play among the OU receivers, not rotating 7-8 guys in and out of the lineup like they did in the non-con. But instead of a top three like I’d initially thought, it looks to be four as 4-star freshman Nic Anderson has forced his way into the conversation. Five receiving touchdowns in the last three games, seeing the most playing time he has all season last week against Iowa State.
Pivot Play – WR Andrel Anthony ($6,100) Folks will be down on Anthony after being targeted just once last week vs. Iowa State. But if there is a difference maker at receiver that boosts OU the most to a potential victory, it’ll be Anthony. Zero relevance to Saturday, but his Michigan performance in a major rivalry game against MSU on the road will always stick in my head. Bright lights brings out the best in Anthony?
Best of the Rest – WR Jalil Farooq ($6,300) Like the trajectory here for Farooq with 23 of his 27 targets coming in the last three games. That’s what happens with the condensed rotation for OU receivers. Just not sure there is slate-breaking potential here vs. Andrel Anthony. If you stack OU receivers, its imperative in having multiple Texas options on the other side of your lineup.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes ($5,900) Remember that foot injury Barnes suffered in the offseason? Doesn’t appear to be fully healthy still, with HC Brent Venables calling it “a funky thing.” Have not seen a status update as of Friday as to his availability.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,300) Worthy has found the end-zone in both meetings with the Sooners in his college career, including his best performance in a Longhorns uniform with 9-261-2 as a freshman in 2021. The OU secondary is playing at an elite level, ranking 11th in pass D success rate, but have allowed six different receivers to hit double-digit fantasy points against them already.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,700) Only argument I can make for Whittington here is he’ll see increased usage over the middle of the field with a less-than-100 percent Ja’Tavion Sanders and the Sooners’ defense playing two-high safeties to account for Worthy and Mitchell. Less than 20 yards receiving in each of the last three games. Whittington needs volume to be a productive fantasy option and he’s unlikely to get it with all the weapons Texas has.
Bargain Bin – Keilan Robinson ($3,300) A friend of a friend that is a huge Texas fan relayed to me that he expects Keilan Robinson to be a factor on Saturday. Why is not exactly known to me. But the former Alabama transfer did play a critical role in last year’s Red River Rivalry with 60 total yards and a touchdown.
Pivot Play – WR Adonai Mitchell ($5,400) Season-highs last week for Mitchell with 10-141-1 on 13 targets in the win over Kansas. An ailing Ja’Tavion Sanders opens up the possibility for more usage with all of the Texas receivers, particularly if he plays a decoy role only.
Best of the Rest – RB Jonathon Brooks ($6,700) Was a debate for me to choose either Worthy or Brooks as the top play for the Longhorns. Just think this could be tough sledding for Brooks to find running room against a stout OU front that is allowing just 7.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far and are 23rd in rush D success rate. Brooks has been arguably the best back in the entire country the last few weeks so wouldn’t shock me to see him hit the century mark again, but this’ll be the toughest test to date. QB Quinn Ewers ($8,600) scored 31 fantasy points at Alabama, so he’s capable against any defense. I’ll probably have low exposure here, though, against a defense that is allowing just 12.2 FPPG.
Injury Notes – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,900) A little bit of he said, she said here. According to the Texas 247 beat writer, Sanders has not participated or been limited in practice all week. Message boarders are saying they know the Sanders family and that someone said he’ll play. Sarkisian says Sanders is ready to roll. 95% chance Sanders is suited up and will play Saturday. How effective he’ll be is anyone’s guess.
LSU vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: LSU -5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: LSU 35 – Mizzou 30
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,100) and/or Malik Nabers ($6,500) Unsure why DK priced two of the best receivers in the country so cheap. Must have one in your lineup or stack both together – both viable options here against a Missouri defense that ranks 72nd in pass D success rate and allowing a combined 44.6 FPPG to opposing WR groups. LSU is also depleted at receiver behind Thomas/Nabers as both Chris Hilton and Aaron Anderson will not play on Saturday. Assuming Missouri keeps this game within striking distance, Nabers and Thomas will play the entire game.
Fade – RB John Emery ($4,400) The LSU backfield rotation from last year has evaporated. Logan Diggs played 58 of the 76 offensive snaps against Ole Miss last week and backup running backs have combined for just eight rushing attempts of the last two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,500) We have not seen the sophomore jump that was expected from Taylor in 2023, though a lot of that has to do with the excellence of Nabers and Thomas. That said, we’ve seen a small uptick in production since returning from a Week 3 injury, now targeted five times in each of the last two games. Missouri allowed 24.2 fantasy points earlier in the year to Ben Sinnott.
Pivot Play – WR Kyren Lacy ($5,200) Limited depth at the wide receiver position as we noted above, so expect Lacy to play at least 3/4s of the game on Saturday. Was targeted four times against Ole Miss, notching 51 yards and a touchdown. Would imagine less than 2% ownership for Lacy in most contests.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Daniels ($9,000) Very average Missouri secondary facing one of the best quarterbacks in college football. We mentioned Mizzou’s pass D success rate above. The Tigers are allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QB1s with four different QBs hitting 20 fantasy points or more against them. That list includes Seth Henigan, Nick Vatttiato, Will Howard and Ken Seals – none of which are in the stratosphere of Daniels. RB Logan Diggs ($6,200) is getting the large majority of playing time in the LSU backfield the last few weeks. With the way the passing game is clicking, Diggs will have numerous scoring opportunities. That said, Missouri ranks No. 6 nationally in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Hilton ($4,800) Downgraded to doubtful per Brian Kelly.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($6,900) No brainer. I don’t think you’d get much of an argument if stating that Burden has been the best receiver in college football in 2023. And now gets an LSU secondary that is 108th in pass D success rate and allowing 24 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – RB Nathaniel Peat ($5,600) Just too high a price for a backup running back, though Peat has forced his way into a backfield rotation that is now a 60-40 split.
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($4,800) The former 4-star recruit and Ohio State transfer is starting to live up to his recruiting profile, now with 50+ receiving yards in each of the last three games. Not sure what changed since the start of the year, but 14 of Cooper’s 15 targets have come in that stretch despite his playing time not fluctuating when compared to the first two games.
Pivot Play – QB Brady Cook ($7,400) Our fearless leader Joe was high on Brady Cook in the preseason, which was the correct call, but not for reasons that we expected. The QB1 was limited earlier in the year due to injury and seems to have affected his ability to run, now with just 66 rushing yards on 29 attempts. Hasn’t mattered as far as his fantasy output, now with multiple 30-point performances in the last three games. Strength of schedule for Missouri in the first five games could be the counterargument against Cook this week, but we noted the LSU defensive metrics above.
Best of the Rest – RB Cody Schrader ($6,900) Schrader’s prop line has dropped since the open, but have to imagine that’s more to do with Peat’s inclusion in the backfield rotation rather than the matchup. Because the matchup with LSU is favorable for the Mizzou RB1. 15.9 FPPG allowed to opposing starting running backs and are 115th in rush D success rate. We have not seen the RBs featured as much in the passing game this year, but Schrader is capable. WR Theo Wease ($5,500) was routinely a fade for us at Oklahoma, but that is no longer the case as a competent side kick to Burden. 26 of his 35 targets this season have come in the last three weeks. This is a top-heavy target share where Burden, Wease and Cooper combine for 74%. Tight ends and running backs aren’t involved much in the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -19.5
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: OSU 38 – MD 19
Weather: 53 degrees / 16% rain / 11 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – WR Jeshaun Jones ($5,600) Throwing out the Michigan State game as Maryland was up double-digits as soon as the opening whistle sounded. Jones has surpassed 100 yards in two of his last three games, ranking first on the team in receptions (20) and yards (329). Ohio State is allowing the third fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WR1s but did allow slot receiver Malachi Corley to score 22 fantasy points in their matchup with WKU. Jones plays 79% of his snaps in the slot.
Fade – RB Roman Hemby ($6,800) I’ve never predicted a Roman Hemby week correctly so me fading him here probably means he rushes for 120 and two scores. That said, he’s trending downward, averaging under four yards a carry in each of the last three weeks as Maryland has split the backfield a bit more than they did in early September. The game script obviously doesn’t work in Hemby’s favor and Ohio State is giving up just 6.0 FPPG to opposing RBs.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($4,100) After a blazing start to the year, Dyches has been quiet in recent weeks with just 19 yards on five targets in B1G play. Still tied for second on the team in receptions (18), facing an Ohio State defense that just allowed 15 fantasy points to Notre Dame tight end Mitchell Evans. Dyches will be under 2% ownership in larger GPPs.
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($5,200) Of the starting trio of Maryland receivers, Prather will probably see the lowest ownership of the group as he doesn’t have the eye-popping stats the other two provide. But the West Virginia transfer has scored a touchdown in 60% of his games played this season. Prather would have a better catch rate (64%) but drops continue to plague him with three in five games.
Best of the Rest – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,400) You can attempt to guess correctly on the Maryland receiver carousel or just invest in the guy getting them the football. Solid start to the year for Baby Tua with a combined 16 touchdowns and three interceptions, completing 66% of his passes. But that’s expected in the month of September when Maryland routinely dominates under Mike Locksley. Heart of B1G play against the big boys is where the Terps usually crawl back into their turtle shell. Will Saturday be different? Ohio State is allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the country. WR Tai Felton ($5,500) had a monster performance against Indiana with 134 yards and three touchdowns. The junior receiver leads the team in targets (30) and routes run. Hadn’t scored double-digit fantasy points in the four games prior to that, so potentially an outlier.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Emeka Egbuka ($7,800) 17 fantasy points or more in each of the last three games for Egbuka who would get a slight increase in value should we get more confirmation that MHJ is limited. Season-high 10 targets against Ohio State in Week 4. Six different receivers have scored 12 or more fantasy points against Maryland this season already.
Fade – RB Miyan Williams ($6,000) See below on our bargain bin suggestion.
Bargain Bin – RB Chip Trayanum ($4,200) Ohio State beat writers called the former Arizona State transfer the clear RB2 behind TreVeyon Henderson as he’s found the end-zone twice in the last two games, including the game-winner against Notre Dame as the clock expired. That shows a huge level of trust for me being in the game that late in that situation. Anywhere between 7-10 carries is the expectation for Saturday if Ohio State can get the lead. Might be the cheap alternative to Henderson if the Buckeyes continue to rotate the backfield like they have in 2023.
Pivot Play – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,400) 19 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games for Henderson after the dud he put up in Week 1. Maryland, statistically, is average against the run, allowing just 11.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s but are 61st in rush D success rate. Henderson is talented enough to thrive against any opponent. The issue is touches inside the 20 where he gives way to Trayanum and sometimes Miyan Williams. Trayanum has a 10-7 advantage in red-zone carries.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyle McCord ($8,100) We’re seeing the reasons why we didn’t have McCord as a Top 20 fantasy QB entering 2023. He’s playing well with six touchdowns to just one interception, but he’s a complete zero as a runner. And when you’re providing negative fantasy points on the ground, you need to be throwing for 300 and four TDs. The only way you’re investing in McCord is a game stack hoping this game shoots out. TE Cade Stover ($4,600) has been sensational this season in competitive matchups with at least five receptions in three of the first four games. Tight ends can be a new QBs best friend. He now sits third on the team with 22 targets.
Injury Notes – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,900) I was wondering why Kyle McCord’s prop bet showed up earlier in the week, but nothing on the Ohio State receivers until just yesterday. Apparently, the ankle injury suffered against Notre Dame continues to bother Harrison Jr. who stated it’s worse than the injury suffered last season but is good enough to play. I mentioned a few weeks ago that the Ohio State beat writers do a fun article listing certain prop bets for themselves to wager on. For an over/under of 82.5 receiving yards for Harrison Jr., two of the three said under.
Rutgers vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -13
O/U Total: 44
Implied Score: Wisc 28.5 – RU 15.5
Weather: 48 degrees / 9% rain / 14 mph winds
Rutgers:
Top Play(s) – RB Kyle Monangai ($5,100) Thought to be the third string running back entering the season is now the third-leading rusher in the Big Ten, averaging 17.6 attempts per game. I think I like Monangai right now as a lower-owned play because DFS players will see Wisconsin and automatically think fade. Not the case in 2023. Not bad, but also not a dominant B1G defense like we’ve seen in the past. Allowing 14.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 93rd in rush D success rate. We know the volume should be there for Monangai to produce decent numbers.
Fade – QB Gavin Wimsatt ($5,700) A quarterback that threw for 46 passing yards in a game this season is never an option. Against the only formidable defense played this season, Wimsatt scored just 13.0 fantasy points with 3/4s of those points coming on one fluke play against Michigan.
Bargain Bin – WR JaQuae Jackson ($3,900) 13 of Jackson’s 23 targets have come in the last two weeks, now second on the team in receptions, targets and first in receiving yards. If there is a big play to be had behind the Wisconsin defense, Jackson is likely to be on the receiving end as he’s averaging 17.3 YPC with an aDOT of 16.1 yards.
Pivot Play – RB Samuel Brown ($4,800) Definitely not an option this week, but file away in the back of your mind for later in the year that Brown was the perceived RB1 entering 2023 had it not been for injury. HC Greg Schiano spoke about Brown this week to the media, stating he’s getting closer to his 2022 form. Saw a season-high nine attempts with a touchdown last week against Wagner.
Best of the Rest – WR Christian Dremel ($4,700) Dremel has easily been Rutgers’ best receiver through the month of September with 14 receptions and 60% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Seven different receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Badgers in 2023, with three wideouts surpassing 20 fantasy points.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($8,400) Has to be wheels up for Allen now right, following the season-ending injury to Chez Mellusi? That’ll depend on how those that are replacing Mellusi in the lineup perform in his absence. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo has never had a 200+ carry running back in the last nine seasons – he always splits the workload between his RB1 and RB2. Does that remain the case with Mellusi no longer around? We’ll find out Saturday. As for the matchup with Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights are only allowing 11.4 FPPG to RB1s this season but are 99th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Chimere Dike ($5,200) Not all that interested in any Wisconsin receiver as we’re not projecting anyone over 10 fantasy points here. Five different wideouts for the Badgers have at least 14 targets this season. So, we’ll look to save salary if choosing someone. In argument for Dike, he’s run the most routes of any Wisconsin receiver this season and has a team-high 20.7 YPC.
Bargain Bin – RB Jackson Acker ($3,400) Acker, a former 3-star recruit, will get the first opportunity to replace Chez Mellusi. We have nine years of evidence from Longo as a play-caller and the 12.75 attempts per game that Mellusi averaged when healthy is not an outlier. That’s been a constant under Longo. Does that trend continue with Acker as the RB2 now? Will be dependent on how he performs.
Pivot Play – Rostering Any Wisconsin WR. Maybe an alpha emerges from the group down the road, but the Badgers are spreading the ball around evenly amongst six different players. Will Pauling leads the way with just a 15% target share, essentially splitting slot reps with Skyler Bell. Maybe former 4-star recruit CJ Williams ($3,300) is the long-term answer, targeted seven times last time out against Purdue, stealing some reps way from Bryson Green who’s been largely ineffective. Don’t feel the need to roster anyone outside of Braelon Allen for the Badgers.
Best of the Rest – QB Tanner Mordecai ($8,200) A 23.4-point projection keeps Mordecai in play here, but that is boosted by his four rushing touchdowns in the last two games played. Sustainable? Mordecai isn’t Lamar Jackson, and Longo QB1s are only averaging around five rushing TDs per season. He’s already 80% of the way there. I don’t foresee Mordecai succeeding through the air vs. the Rutgers secondary that is allowing just 12.9 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: UCLA -3.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UCLA 31 – WSU 28.5
Weather: 90 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Cameron Ward ($8,600) High-level stats look remarkable for the UCLA pass defense but look at the list of quarterbacks faced this season. Grayson McCall with an inept coaching staff. Jalen Mayden with an inept coaching staff. Backup QBs for Utah and whoever trots out under center for North Carolina Central University. Advanced data shows that the Bruins are just 88th in pass D success rate. That shouldn’t scare you off of a potential Heisman contender in Cam Ward. He’s our second-highest projected QB of the slate behind Jayden Daniels.
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($5,200) Washington State runs the football just 44% of the time – good for 106th in the country. Watson also splits the reps with backup RB Jaylen Jenkins ($4,200) which renders both nearly irrelevant.
Bargain Bin – WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,900) The top two receivers for Wazzu will garner higher ownership rates, and for good reason, but don’t forget about the true freshman slot receiver who enters the starting lineup with Lincoln Victor out due to injury and DT Sheffield no longer on the team. Hernandez has been a stud ever since spring ball and displayed that against Oregon State with seven receptions on eight targets. Slot receivers have typically been the target hogs in Ben Arbuckle’s offensive system.
Pivot Play – Stacking both WR Josh Kelly ($6,000) and Kyle Williams ($5,400) The performance from these two receivers, along with Cam Ward, against Oregon State back in Week 4 was one of the most impressive I’ve seen all year long with a combined 70 fantasy points and four receiving touchdowns. Teams simply don’t throw on the Oregon State secondary like that, and Ward carved them up, averaging 11.9 yards per attempt which was his second-highest mark of the season. On paper, UCLA’s secondary rates similarly to Oregon State. I do think Ward will lean on his veteran outside receivers so long as Victor remains out of the lineup and stacking the two together is a viable play.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Hamilton ($3,800) Wazzu employs 4-wide sets around 50% of the time under offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle so Hamilton could be a longshot play as the fourth option in the passing game. Was targeted four times for minimal yardage against OSU. The Cougars did not rotate anyone else in the game, which was notable for me, considering how the coaching staff talked up the WR depth all offseason. No other receiver beyond the top four played more than three offensive snaps in Week 4.
Injury Notes – WR Lincoln Victor ($5,600) Still at least another week away from Victor’s return to the lineup after being injured HOLDING THE EXTRA POINT. Will coaches ever learn to not use their best players on special teams?
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Carson Steele ($5,600) Not much interest at all here on the UCLA side despite a 31-point implied team total as this offense has been very hit or miss this season from a fantasy perspective. We’ll lean slightly towards Steele here as the top option, but don’t feel great about it as this is a 55-45 split backfield. The reason is the Washington State defense which has not been great against the run in 2023, ranking 104th in rush D success rate and allowing 17.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Imagine what that number would be too if it was Damien Martinez rushing for those three TDs against Wazzu and not backup Deshaun Fenwick. Steele remains the starter here, but there seem to be calls for TJ Harden to see more attempts.
Fade – Receivers Not Named J. Michael Sturdivant. Next four receivers after Sturdivant are collectively averaging 7.3 FPPG, with the former Cal transfer garnering 30% of the target share that has gone to UCLA wideouts. UCLA should be able to throw on Washington State with some success, but there isn’t a trustworthy option aside from the WR1.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($4,300) Chip Kelly loves his tight end usage as we saw a few years back with Devin Asiasi and Greg Dulcich. Is 6-foot-4 redshirt freshman Carsen Ryan next in line? Scored a touchdown in each of the first two games despite minimal playing time, followed by three catches on three targets in an extended look against Utah. Washington State allowed two tight ends – Dallin Holker and Jack Velling – to hit double-digit fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Pivot Play – RB TJ Harden ($5,000) We saw it two weeks ago with Deshaun Fenwick, not Damien Martinez, rushing for 100+ and three scores on this Wazzu defense. Repeat of that with Harden? It’s a near even split between the two ball carriers, and Harden has actually been the more impressive player with a 7.4 YPC average and 57% breakaway rush rate per Pro Football Focus.
Best of the Rest – QB Dante Moore ($6,000) It was ugly, there is no question about it, but Utah makes a lot of teams look ugly on offense. In the other three games this season, Moore has thrown a combined seven touchdowns. The Wazzu pass defense is better than their rush defense, but not by a significant margin, allowing 17.9 FPPG and 74th in success rate. A 19.6-point projection at $6k puts Moore in play as a potential option but far from a priority.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -21
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Clem 37.5 – WF 16
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – WR Jahmal Banks ($6,600) When is the last time a Dave Clawson-coached team at Wake Forest was projected to score just 16 points. I’m sure it was recent but still difficult to fathom given all of the offensive talent. Game script should work in favor of Banks here who leads the team in every receiving category through four games. Clemson is allowing a combined 29 fantasy points to opposing WR groups this season, so it is not necessarily a must that we need to roster any WF receivers.
Fade – RB Justice Ellison ($5,300) We wouldn’t normally be interested in Ellison regardless in this matchup against a good Clemson front that is allowing only 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Now add in the fact that RB2 Demond Claiborne ($3,300) has forced his way into making this a 60-40 backfield split means we’re even less interested in Ellison. If you feel that strongly that a WF running back should be in your lineup, for whatever reason, I’d save some coin and roll with Claiborne who has double-digit carries in every game this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Wesley Grimes ($3,900) The former 4-star recruit Third on the team in targets (23), but the team’s top deep threat, averaging nearly 20 YPC with a team-high 16.5 aDOT. Just need one to pay off Grimes’ salary and he sees far more targets than most receivers in this same price range.
Pivot Play – QB Mitch Griffis ($6,800) I’m not sure in good conscience I can even tout Griffis as a pivot play, that’s how inconsistent he’s looked as the Wake Forest QB1 – a spot that was seemingly matchup proof with Sam Hartman and some of the other Demon Deacon QBs over the last few seasons. The Tigers are allowing just 17.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s and that’s after facing three top 20 fantasy quarterbacks in Jordan Travis, Garrett Shrader and Riley Leonard. Similar to Cade Klubnik as we’ll explain below, Griffis is probably best served as a game stack option, hoping this matchup turns into the 51-45 offensive explosion from last year.
Best of the Rest – WR Taylor Morin ($6,200) or KeShawn Williams ($5,300) Wake Forest runs 4-wide almost exclusively so both Morin and Williams are on the field a majority of the time. Unfortunately, their production from a week-to-week basis has no rhyme or reason to it, so may the odds ever be in your favor if choosing one for your lineup. Do not stack the two together.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyler Brown ($5,300) This is assuming that Antonio Williams does not play again on Saturday, and Brown has given the Clemson coaching staff a reason to be patient with Williams’ rehab from injury. Career-highs last week with 153 yards on 12 targets – double the amount of the next closest receiver. Wake Forest has allowed some big performances this season to opposing WRs, giving up 48 fantasy points collectively per game which is 13th most in the country.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($4,500) Not sure if Adam Randall got injured or not against Syracuse, but his stat-line looks very similar to what he’s done in the previous four games – next to nothing. The former 5-star played all of seven snaps last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,100) The thought in the preseason was Clemson’s lack of playmakers at receiver would result in Briningstool being a major factor in the passing game. That hasn’t transpired. The 6-foot-6 tight end is still on the field a ton and has been targeted at least four times in each of the last four games, but the results aren’t there. Wake Forest has yet to allow a tight end to score more than six fantasy points against them this season.
Pivot Play – RB Will Shipley ($6,400) Not the statistical start that we anticipated from Shipley in 2023, but the touches have increased ever since his minor blowup on the sidelines with his position coach against Florida Atlantic. 18 carries in each of the last two games, and figures to see that much again as a near three-touchdown favorite. Why Shipley isn’t the top play here? Wake Forest has been very good against the run, allowing just 11.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far. RB Phil Mafah ($5,300) deserves some consideration as a pivot to Shipley. Less volume but gets a ton of looks inside the red zone as we frustratingly see every week. Despite a significant disadvantage in total carries to Shipley, Mafah trails just 15-12 in red-zone touches.
Best of the Rest – QB Cade Klubnik ($8,000) I think the only way you play Klubnik here is hoping that this game turns into last year’s shootout and game stack it with Wake Forest players. Solid but unspectacular could describe Klubnik’s season from a fantasy aspect, completing over 60% of his throws with an 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio, but has yet to score over 22 fantasy points against a P5 opponent this season. WF has been better than expected against the pass, allowing just 18 FPPG and 32nd in pass D success rate. High floor, low ceiling play as a standalone.
Injury Notes – WR Antonio Williams ($5,300) Sounds like Williams is doing more in practice this week and moving well, but Clemson now has the luxury of waiting until he’s fully 100% healthy before bringing him back because of the emergence of Tyler Brown. I’d heavily lean towards Williams not playing Saturday.
Virginia Tech vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -24
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: FSU 38 – VT 14
Weather: 81 degrees / 4% rain / 11 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Four options in total that we’re going to be brief with here because of Virginia Tech’s low team total. QB Kyron Drones ($5,400) is in play solely due to his rushing ability which has been on display the last three games with a combined 58 rushing attempts. BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos did damage with his arm and legs to this FSU defense with 30 fantasy points so Drones would appear to be a good play from that standpoint. The counterpoint is that Florida State has had two weeks to prepare for a similar QB as they’re coming off the bye.
RB Bhayshul Tuten ($5,500) has a stranglehold now on the RB1 job for the Hokies after rushing for nearly 200 yards in the last two weeks, including a season-high 109 yards on 24 attempts vs. Pittsburgh. This is not a dominant FSU front, allowing over 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I would have very limited exposure, though, if looking at Tuten as an option. Virginia Tech is also starting to look like its in-state rival Virginia with the concentrated target share among the top two receivers in WR Jaylin Lane ($5,300) and WR Da’Quan Felton ($5,100). 12 of the 18 targets last week against Pittsburgh went to those two wideouts. Only play here I’m mildly excited about rostering would be Drones because of the dual-threat ability + Pricing.
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Trey Benson ($6,600) If not now, when for Trey Benson? Virginia Tech is 77th in rush D success rate and allowing 20 FPPG to opposing RB1s. The passing game has excelled, but for Florida State to reach the heights they want to get to this season in reaching/advancing in the College Football Playoff, the Seminoles have to get Benson on track and confident like he was the second half of last year.
Fade – RB Lawrance Toafili ($5,100) If looking to roster a Florida State backup running back, I’d look to spend down on Rodney Hill rather than Toafili. The only advantage Toafili has over Hill is his passing game usage with 10 receptions on 11 targets.
Bargain Bin – RB Rodney Hill ($4,000) Trey Benson still dominates the touch counts in the Florida State backfield, but we’re seeing a bit more rotation than we thought in the preseason. The coaching staff especially talked up Hill who impressed in limited action, averaging over five yards a carry. Assuming Vegas is correct in that FSU will blow out the Hokies on Saturday, Hill could get some second half run. We’ll give a quick second nod to WR/RB Ja’khi Douglas ($3,000) who was listed as a co-starter on the depth chart this week after not being listed all year.
Pivot Play – QB Jordan Travis ($8,700) I do expect a more run-heavy script from the Florida State offense this week as they’ve been a bit more pass-happy than we expected entering 2023. Travis still has one of the highest floors of any QB on the slate but faces a Virginia Tech defense that is 20th in pass D success rate and allowing just 16.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. The laundry list of QBs faced this season, though, have contributed to those numbers – Gavin Wimsatt, Grant Wilson, Phil Jurkovec and Cam Fancher.
Best of the Rest – WRs Johnny Wilson ($6,200) and Keon Coleman ($6,700) Not a ton to add here that you don’t already know. Coleman is dominating the red-zone targets between the two, but Wilson is heavily involved with a team-high 32 targets. Would not stack the two together in a potential blowout, but having either or in a lineup is always a strong strategic move. TE Jaheim Bell ($4,800) has seen his usage increase in the last two weeks with 11 of his 16 targets coming in that span. Saw just one target though in FSU’s lone blowout this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -9.5
O/U Total: 60
Implied Score: UNC 34 – Syra 25.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($5,800) Best play of the slate? The UNC run defense was looking improved the first couple weeks of the season, but has reverted back to form prior to the bye. Rank 104th in rush D success rate and allowing 20.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. If Rodney Hammond can muster up 18 fantasy points against this defense, Allen should surpass 20 with his receiving ability.
Fade – RB Juwaun Price ($4,500) Probably a given to everyone reading this, but LeQuint Allen dominates the volume share in the Cuse backfield as long as he’s healthy (he is). Allen and Shrader combine for all 12 of the Syracuse rushing touchdowns in 2023.
Bargain Bin – TE Dan Villari ($3,500) After leaving the game early against Clemson last week, Villari said he expects to suit up against the Heels Saturday. Was targeted a season-high three times with 65 yards and a score.
Pivot Play – WR Donovan Brown ($5,000) or Damian Alford ($5,500) There isn’t much to distinguish between the two receivers, to be frank. Routes run per game, targets and yards per reception are nearly identical. Alford is the deep threat of the two with a significantly higher aDOT of 14.9, but that is the only notable difference between them. I would not stack with multiple Syracuse receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,200) Shrader and Allen in the same lineup is a feasible stack given how centralized the production is around this QB/RB combo. If choosing one, the numbers definitely favor Allen > Shrader when looking at the two as UNC’s pass defense stands out statistically, allowing just 12 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 25th in pass D success rate. It should ALSO be noted that UNC has faced Joey Aguilar, Athan Kaliakmanis, Phil Jurkovec and Spencer Rattler this season. Garrett Shrader is easily the best QB the Heels will have faced to date.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Tez Walker ($3,000) Bombshell news broke mid-Thursday that the NCAA reversed course and uplifted the ineligibility ruling, making Walker eligible for the remainder of the season. There’s no way of knowing as of writing this how much playing time Walker will receive, but very much worth the price of admission at min-salary. Sounds like Walker has been practicing so he should be in game shape for Saturday. The former Kent State transfer was the best UNC receiver throughout offseason practices by all accounts.
Fade – WR Kobe Paysour ($5,200) Paysour was playing out of position with Walker out of the lineup. He’s strictly in slot receiver in my mind yet was playing outside due to necessity. I’m assuming with Walker back in the lineup, Paysour shifts back inside, but is the second starter behind Nate McCollum. That likely makes Paysour the fourth option at receiver.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($3,500) Nesbit is now priced in a range where we can potentially fit him into our lineup. Very talented tight end that probably hasn’t been utilized up to his potential but did see a slight uptick in production of late with four targets in each of the last two games. Risky because we don’t have evidence of how Drake Maye will prioritize his pass-catchers with everyone now healthy and available.
Pivot Play – RB Omarion Hampton ($5,700) Should be noted that Hampton’s prop bets are being bet down after starting at 74.5 to open the week. I think Hampton is this team’s most talented option and has proven as such, but the UNC staff has an affinity for British Brooks who should be 100% health after the bye week. We’ll likely see a split against a Cuse front that is 10th in rush D success rate nationally.
Best of the Rest – QB Drake Maye ($9,500) We haven’t looked towards Maye a lot in DFS this season but seems to be hitting his stride with a pair of 28-point fantasy performances in the two weeks leading up to the bye. Looks like he’s gaining confidence in Chip Lindsey’s offensive system. And now Maye has his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal at receiver and tight end. This is a tough matchup, though, against a Syracuse defense that is limiting QBs to just 13.5 FPPG.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: Ala -2.5
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: Ala 24.5 – A&M 22
Weather: 72 degrees / 1% rain / 13 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jase McClellan ($6,500) Expecting a run-heavy game script from the Tide on Saturday with some weather concerns and an elite A&M pass defense. Trouble is that the Aggies have been just as good against the run, ranking 10th in success rate and allowing under 9 fantasy points a game to opposing RB1s. Emphasizes how little interest I have on the Alabama side in this matchup. After some thought McClellan was on the verge of losing his job, he’s seen an uptick the last two weeks with a combined 36 touches.
Fade – WR JaCorey Brooks ($5,000) This could be all Alabama receivers, but we’ll spotlight Brooks as the staff continues to rotate heavily, particularly on the outside where you’re seeing a combination of Brooks, Malik Benson, Kendrick Law and Jalen Hale all getting considerable playing time the last two weeks. Alabama is running heavy 12 personnel this season under OC Tommy Rees, meaning only two receivers are on the field at a time.
Bargain Bin – TE Amari NiBlack ($3,900) The addition of Rees as play-caller has resulted in increased usage for the tight end position, namely NiBlack who has arguably been Bama’s best pass-catcher this season. A&M is allowing just 2.2 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season.
Pivot Play – RB Roydell Williams ($5,100) Grasping at straws here trying to find any Alabama plays from this game. 62-38% run to pass ratio for Alabama the last few weeks as they’re figuring out the best plan of action to attack defenses with Milroe and his limited passing abilities. Williams has just 21 touches the last two games as he’s started to take a back seat to McClellan. Still, I expect a very run-heavy game script from the Tide this week.
Best of the Rest – Probably not playing anyone on the Alabama side in this matchup, but we’ll always side with a dual-threat QB first and foremost. Double-digit rushing attempts in three of his four starts. Why is Milroe not a priority then here? Outside of the Miami game, this A&M pass defense has been exceptional; ranked No. 4 in pass D success rate and allowing only 11.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Injury Notes – WR Jermaine Burton ($5,900) Burton is banged up this week, per Nick Saban, after playing just nine offensive snaps against Mississippi State. That essentially eliminates him from contention if even Burton plays with the run-heavy script Alabama has employed recently with Monroe at QB.
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Evan Stewart ($7,300) No hard-hitting analysis here. Best players typically shine in big moments and Stewart has hit double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. We saw both Texas receiver score 18 or more fantasy points against the Tide earlier in the year. Not a priority play against a secondary that ranks 5th in pass D success rate but will have some exposure.
Fade – RB Amari Daniels ($5,200) With Le’Veon Moss now 100% healthy, Daniels has taken a backseat to the RB2 role in the last two weeks. Not the matchup to play a backup running back against a defense allowing just 18 fantasy points to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Johnson ($3,100) Only A&M player under $5k you can consider. Played 50% of snaps last week against Arkansas, converting on both of his targets. Brother to brother connection between the TE and QB. Alabama allowed 16 fantasy points earlier in the year to Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Pivot Play – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,400) 32 carries in the last two games for Moss as he’s asserted himself as the top back in the A&M backfield. Most fantasy points allowed in a game by the Tide this season was 13 points x2 to Jeffrey Pittman and Jonathon Brooks. This is a top 25 run blocking unit for A&M so the Aggies should find some room on the ground, and Moss has the ability to hit value if he’s getting 15+ touches as he’s done the last two games. Can’t imagine the Aggies want Max Johnson throwing the ball 30+ times on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Ainias Smith ($5,400) In a video preview for the matchup, the Texas A&M beat writers spotlighted Smith as a potential x-factor for Saturday. Nothing specifically from an on-field aspect but his older brother used to play for Alabama and there was a public dispute about Saban blocking a potential transfer to Georgia. Added motivation for the Smith family whenever facing the Tide. 70 or more receiving yards for Smith in the last three games, aided by the injury to Noah Thomas as both play snaps in the slot. QB Max Johnson ($6,200) is cheap enough to possibly consider as he’s played well in the last two games, completing over 60% of his passes with four touchdowns. Some added value as he does have some movability in the pocket. Alabama is elite in the secondary and allows only 14 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Purdue vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -2.5
O/U Total: 39
Implied Score: Iowa 20.5 – Purd 18
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 14 mph winds
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Deion Burks ($5,700) Third time in five games last week that Burks led the Boilermakers in targets, finishing with 5-83-1. While the defensive pass metrics for the Hawkeyes are superb, they’ve actually allowed a handful of fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Terrell Vaughn, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Jayden Higgins each scored over 20 fantasy points in their matchups with Iowa. In total, six different receivers scored double-digit fantasy points against the Hawkeyes.
Fade – QB Hudson Card ($5,600) Quarterbacks projected around 15 fantasy points must be sub-$5k and a dynamic runner to be in consideration for a 12-game slate. Card does not fit either description. Iowa is allowing just 13.8 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks – coincidentally Card’s exact projection.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Probably a full-team fade with the low game total, so definitely not playing anyone sub-$5k.
Pivot Play – RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5,300) High-level numbers paint a better picture for the Iowa rush defense. Top 10 nationally in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB1s (8.3) yet are just 51st in rush D success rate. Tracy, a former Iowa transfer if you forgot, has taken hold of the RB1 job after Devin Mockobee’s fumbling issues in Week 3. 112 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries vs. Illinois last week. Taller task against this Iowa defense, but never underestimate a revenge game storyline.
Best of the Rest – WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($5,300) Top heavy target share for the Boilermakers with the top three wideouts accounting for 61% of the targets. Yaseen sits second at 36 targets and leads the team with 24 receptions. Would not roster multiple Purdue wideouts in this likely low-scoring matchup but Yaseen would be a strong pivot off Burks should you choose to do so.
Injury Notes – TE Max Klare ($3,900) Purdue’s TE1 left last week’s game with a lower body injury. No diagnosis as of Tuesday on his status. Not the matchup to risk playing him. Day 1 projected starter Garrett Miller ($3,800) caught his first touchdown of the season against Illinois last week. His playing time has increased since returning from injury.
Iowa:
The only Iowa player we have projected to score double-digit fantasy points this week is the backup quarterback. Noteworthy that RB Kaleb Johnson ($5,100) is back at practice this week, but you know our stance with players returning from injury. That fadability (yes, I made that word up) is enhanced when its an Iowa player returning from injury running behind an offensive line that is 128th in stuff rate and 123rd in line yards. The fact that Iowa’s offensive line has been this unstable for like three years running now is astonishing. Here’s another stat for you. Johnson has scored seven touchdowns since the start of 2022. Next closest Iowa player in touchdowns scored is their starting safety. Just think about that.
Central Florida vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: UCF -1.5
O/U Total: 64
Implied Score: UCF 33.5 – KU 31
Weather: 64 degrees / 4% rain / 11 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB1. Who that is we don’t know as of Thursday writing this. JRP was on the field for pregame warmups against Baylor last week with a massive brace on his leg. But seemed to be putting plenty of weight on it so he doesn’t appear far off from returning. This will be a late swap situation in the afternoon once pregame reports start trickling in. And I think we do need to monitor because Kansas is allowing over 25 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. QB Timmy McClain ($7,700) threw the ball very poorly last week yet still managed 24 fantasy points with his dual-threat ability.
Fade – n/a. Either starting QB is in play, as are both RBs as they’re priced appropriately. Condensed target share among the top three receivers (though it’s anyone’s guess as to which pops off in a given week). Each of the primary contributors for UCF are potential options.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Don’t play any UCF players sub-$4.5k.
Pivot Play – WR Kobe Hudson ($5,600) Not sure what exactly happened last week that resulted in Hudson being targeted just twice after the streak he was on with 100+ receiving yards in three straight games. Facts are that Hudson’s playing time was not altered at all, still on the field of 62 of the 66 offensive snaps. Will see lower ownership % as a result.
Best of the Rest – RB RJ Harvey ($6,100) Strong 19-point projection here for Harvey at this pricing, facing a defense allowing around 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Last week was the first time all year Harvey did not find the end-zone. Kansas is 103rd in rush D success rate. WR Javon Baker ($5,400) was the preferred option last week with 113 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. We’ve seen twice this season where Baker and Hudson have both hit double-digit fantasy points in the same game, but not advisable to stack both in the same lineup. I’d have just one paired with the UCF QB1. Trio of Hudson, Baker and WR Xavier Townsend ($5,100) combine for 58% of the target share and 60% of the team’s receiving production.
Injury Notes – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($7,900) Plumlee is back at practice this week, but TBD if he will be available on Saturday. Do we see two quarterbacks? Kansas HC Lance Leipold stated on his weekly radio show that his guess is that JRP is back under center for Saturday so take that fwiw.
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,300) Game script worked against Neal last week as KU was down double figures. Don’t see that being the case against UCF as a field goal favorite at home. The Knights are allowing 27.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and rank 107th in rush D success rate. A Kansas running back needs to be in your lineup on Saturday.
Fade – WR Quentin Skinner ($4,700) Season-low last week in routes run for Skinner as he was targeted just twice with zero receptions. Not a ton of upside with the Kansas receivers given it’s a ball-controlled offense (105th in plays per game), facing a solid secondary. Wide receivers are combining for just 27 fantasy points against UCF this season, and Kansas distributes the ball evenly amongst Skinner, Luke Grimm, and Lawrence Arnold. If you do have a KU wideout in a lineup, limit one.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,100) HT to the Kansas beat writer for pointing this one out. Multiple times last week Baylor had a tight end open in the red-zone but failed to convert with QB Blake Shapen. In UCF’s matchup with Kansas State, Ben Sinnott scored 11 fantasy points as was targeted eight times. A good a time as any for a Mason Fairchild breakout performance, though I wish he was a tad cheaper.
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($4,700) We referenced UCF’s struggles defending the run above. Hishaw has impressed this season, averaging over six yards a carry with a rushing TD in all but one game. Particularly if Jalon Daniels is out, expect a ball-controlled game plan from the Jayhawks on Saturday. If Kansas is out to a lead in the second half, Hishaw is the one to wear down defenses.
Best of the Rest – QB Jason Bean ($6,700) UCF has been very good defending the pass this season, ranking 35th in pass D success rate and limiting QB1s to just 18 FPPG. Allowing 293 yards to Blake Shapen last week also shows those numbers might be a tad inflated due to the lack of top-tier QBs faced this season, along with teams not needing to pass against this porous run defense. Bean is definitely in play, assuming Daniels is out, as this matchup has shootout potential.
Injury Notes – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,800) Not expecting to see Daniels on Saturday after the report came out he hasn’t done much this week in practice. An unfortunate circumstance last week as he tweaked his back again during pregame warmups. Shooting that NIL commercial in the offseason (where he initially injured his back) has proven costly.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UF -18.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: UF 35 – Vandy 16.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 3% rain / 11 mph winds
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Sheppard ($5,700) Sheppard is tied for second in the country in targets this season (56), hitting at least 60 yards receiving in five of six games. Even in the lackluster 31-yard performance against Kentucky, Sheppard was still targeted 10 times in that game. He gets a slight upgrade if we do see AJ Swann back under center Saturday.
Fade – RB Patrick Smith ($5,200) Smith saw his fewest number of snaps last week in the blowout loss to Florida. Makes sense from a game script perspective that he barely played, but notable that Smith also gave way to talented true freshman Sedrick Alexander ($4,100) who impressed in the passing game with seven receptions on seven targets. Its just a matter of time before Alexander secures that RB1 job full-time. We all saw what Ray Davis did last week to this Florida defense. But unless the Gators have just quit on Billy Napier, we’ll consider that performance a one-off outlier.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not using anyone listed below $4.5k.
Pivot Play – n/a. Not using anyone from Vandy outside of who is listed currently in this writeup. QB situation is a mess. One of the worst rushing teams in the SEC. And this team doesn’t use the tight end position in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden McGowan ($5,300) McGowan’s production has dipped the last two weeks with just seven receiving yards on six targets. McGowan even gave way a bit to backup slot receiver Junior Sherrill ($3,800) who out-produced him in limited time with three catches and a touchdown. We’re going to assume that was a result of the game being out of hand and that McGowan will retain his starting spot. But something to watch for moving forward.
Injury Notes – QB AJ Swann ($6,500) Listed officially as probably, but a Wednesday night update from the team beat writer suggested that Ken Seals will start again on Saturday. The indication given was that Swann could get some run against the Gators as well, though. We were out on this situation before knowing that. But if you see a Ken Seals player prop bet, be sure to alert me of where so I can throw my entire bankroll on that under. WR3 London Humphreys ($4,800) did not practice Monday and is considered questionable. WR Quincy Skinner Jr. ($4,600) would garner most of the playing time opposite Sheppard on the outside if Humphreys were to sit.
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,800) Won’t go as far as saying a lock, because nobody on this dreadful Florida team should ever be considered a lock, but Johnson skyrockets up the board if Trevor Etienne were to sit on Saturday. RB1s are only averaging 13.5 FPPG against the Dores this season, but Vandy is 13th in yards allowed per game on the ground in the SEC. 15 carries would be a mortal lock for Johnson Saturday if Etienne is out.
Fade – QB Graham Mertz ($6,400) Mertz completes nearly 80% of his passes yet still has not hit 20 fantasy points in a game this season. Non-running QBs in run-based schemes are nearly irrelevant to us. Will say that if there ever was a matchup to play Mertz, this would be the one. Vandy allows over 21 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and are 96th in pass D success rate. Potentially down a starting RB could mean more passing volume too. Why am I talking myself into this…?
Bargain Bin – WR Andy Jean ($3,400) We’re getting to the point in Billy Napier’s tenure where not only does he need to start winning more games, but also showcasing some of these prized freshmen, because that fanbase is ready to have his head on a spike. Andy Jean is one of those prized recruits who saw his most action of the season last week with four receptions on five targets.
Pivot Play – WR Ricky Pearsall ($7,400) 28% target share and 1/3rd of the team’s receiving touchdowns for the year, while hitting double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. Vanderbilt is allowing the second most fantasy points in the entire country to opposing wide receivers. While everyone will be focused on nailing the running back position with the injury situation, we could easily profit at receiver.
Best of the Rest – WR Kahleil Jackson ($4,900) Jackson had his most productive game as a collegiate player last week with 41 yards on four targets. Nothing to write home about, but he’ll see increased playing time moving forward with Caleb Douglas possibly out for the season due to injury.
Injury Notes – RB Trevor Etienne ($5,400) The sophomore running back is listed as questionable with an upper body injury. 4-star true freshman RB Treyaun Webb ($4,300) would see the uptick in playing time if Etienne were to sit. Webb impressed in limited action this season, rushing for 71 yards and two scores on 14 carries against McNeese State.
