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South Carolina vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -6.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UK 26.5 – SC 20
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB MarShawn Lloyd ($5,400) Teams can run on Kentucky, and South Carolina I believe is getting back one of their starting offensive linemen from injury. That’s not to say Kentucky is a bad run defense by any stretch, giving up just 12.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but are eighth in the SEC, allowing Florida, Ole Miss and NIU to average over four yards a carry against them. Lloyd and the entire RB group has to have a big day to pull the upset.
Fade – QB Spencer Rattler ($4,600) Pfewww. From 5-star prospect, to landing massive NIL deals, to now having a lower salary on Draftkings…. than his current backup! Guess that’s what happens when you’ve thrown seven interceptions and just four touchdowns, leading to you having the worst quarterback rating in the SEC. I wouldn’t even bother with this despite the temptation. Kentucky is allowing just 11.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Zero confidence Rattler will turn things around.
Bargain Bin – WR Jalen Brooks ($3,500) There is some separation at WR for the Gamecocks where Brooks is one of two receivers to play 64% of the offensive snaps this season. Brooks is the team leader in routes run and second in target (20).
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($4,800) Game script dictates Wells should see some looks as a near touchdown underdog and is the team leader by a considerable margin with 31 targets on the season. The confusing part is not utilizing Wells, or even Rattler for that matter, in ways that they are best at which is stretching the field. Wells caught seven passes against South Carolina State, but an aDOT of just 1.4 yards. Rattler’s best attribute is his downfield passing. Not happening. This is what occurs when you have the worst offensive coordinator in the country.
Best of the Rest – TE Jaheim Bell ($3,500) Very similar case to Rattler where the price is tempting but rarely going to make an impact on your roster. And again, blame the offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield for not utilizing his best offensive weapons to their full potential. 11 targets through five games is not what was expected coming into the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Chris Rodriguez ($7,000) Rodriguez jumped right back into action last week, rushing for a team-high 72 yards on 19 carries. Good thing UK got their senior back ramped up last week, because he might need to tote the rock 30 times if the quarterback situation goes the way we think it will. Even if Will Levis were to play, C-Rod remains the top option against a South Carolina defense that ranks 13th of 14 teams in the SEC, allowing 185 YPG on the ground. Kentucky’s OL is below average, so this isn’t a smash spot, but it’s pretty close given we expect the Wildcats to keep the ball on the ground much of the evening.
Fade – QB Kaiya Sheron ($4,500) https://twitter.com/thorku/status/1577862560640008192
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,800) I’m going to assume that Kentucky won’t ask its backup quarterback to throw many passes down the field beyond the first down sticks. That could help Tayvion Robinson’s production whose 24 receptions on 27 targets primarily come around the line of scrimmage with a 4.2 aDOT. Might end up being Sheron’s best friend come Saturday. We’ve seen Robinson line up in the backfield and take jet sweeps on multiple occasions in SEC play and wouldn’t surprise to see that happen against Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Barion Brown ($5,000) A recent surge in the last three weeks now has Brown second on the team in targets, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each game during that span. Potential added bonus that Brown doubles as the team’s primary return man, already with a 100-yard touchdown.
Injury Notes – QB Will Levis ($7,500) Line movement throughout the week seems to indicate folks are expecting Will Levis to sit on Saturday, and there are a few ominous tweets out there that suggest the same.
Washington State vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -12.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: USC 39 – Wazzu 26.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Cameron Ward ($5,600) There really isn’t much analysis needed here when it comes to Ward. Draftkings flubbed the pricing here. And the passing game for Wazzu has been clicking the last three games.
Fade – Everyone outside the top four WRs. In Week 4, 31 of the 36 targets that went to WRs went to the starting foursome of Renard Bell, Robert Ferrel, Donovan Ollie and De’Zhaun Stribling. In Week 5, it was 26 of 31 targets. This isn’t a Mike Leach air raid system where we’re seeing 7-8 receivers catch three or more passes each week.
Bargain Bin – WR Robert Ferrel ($3,500) Very noticeable the last few weeks that the attention has shifted from the outside receivers at the start of the year to now in the slot of late. Since coming back to the lineup in Week 3, Ferrel immediately started producing, converting on all 17 of his targets with a pair of touchdowns in the last two weeks. Shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering Ferrel and Ward played together at Eastern Washington.
Pivot Play – WR Renard Bell ($4,800) We touched on above how Ward is finding his slot receivers of late. First and foremost is senior Renard Bell where 17 of his 28 targets have come in the last two games alone with over 200 combined receiving yards. USC is 4th in pass play explosiveness, so they’re good on the back end at limiting big plays, but 92nd in pass play success rate. Could spell good news between the hashes for someone like Bell.
Best of the Rest – RB Nakia Watson ($4,700) Watson probably won’t see a ton of ownership, but what he does still own is the Wazzu backfield, garnering 60% of the volume share. USC’s vulnerable against the run this season, allowing 19.6 FPPG and 104th in success rate. WR Donovan Ollie ($4,000) and De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,000) have been playing second fiddle to the slot receivers of late, but neither will break the bank to roster them. Both wideouts are averaging over six targets a game, and we mentioned the lack of rotation with the starters.
Injury Notes – n/a
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