South Carolina vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -6.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: UK 26.5 – SC 20
Weather: 52 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB MarShawn Lloyd ($5,400) Teams can run on Kentucky, and South Carolina I believe is getting back one of their starting offensive linemen from injury. That’s not to say Kentucky is a bad run defense by any stretch, giving up just 12.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s, but are eighth in the SEC, allowing Florida, Ole Miss and NIU to average over four yards a carry against them. Lloyd and the entire RB group has to have a big day to pull the upset.
Fade – QB Spencer Rattler ($4,600) Pfewww. From 5-star prospect, to landing massive NIL deals, to now having a lower salary on Draftkings…. than his current backup! Guess that’s what happens when you’ve thrown seven interceptions and just four touchdowns, leading to you having the worst quarterback rating in the SEC. I wouldn’t even bother with this despite the temptation. Kentucky is allowing just 11.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Zero confidence Rattler will turn things around.
Bargain Bin – WR Jalen Brooks ($3,500) There is some separation at WR for the Gamecocks where Brooks is one of two receivers to play 64% of the offensive snaps this season. Brooks is the team leader in routes run and second in target (20).
Pivot Play – WR Antwane Wells ($4,800) Game script dictates Wells should see some looks as a near touchdown underdog and is the team leader by a considerable margin with 31 targets on the season. The confusing part is not utilizing Wells, or even Rattler for that matter, in ways that they are best at which is stretching the field. Wells caught seven passes against South Carolina State, but an aDOT of just 1.4 yards. Rattler’s best attribute is his downfield passing. Not happening. This is what occurs when you have the worst offensive coordinator in the country.
Best of the Rest – TE Jaheim Bell ($3,500) Very similar case to Rattler where the price is tempting but rarely going to make an impact on your roster. And again, blame the offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield for not utilizing his best offensive weapons to their full potential. 11 targets through five games is not what was expected coming into the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Chris Rodriguez ($7,000) Rodriguez jumped right back into action last week, rushing for a team-high 72 yards on 19 carries. Good thing UK got their senior back ramped up last week, because he might need to tote the rock 30 times if the quarterback situation goes the way we think it will. Even if Will Levis were to play, C-Rod remains the top option against a South Carolina defense that ranks 13th of 14 teams in the SEC, allowing 185 YPG on the ground. Kentucky’s OL is below average, so this isn’t a smash spot, but it’s pretty close given we expect the Wildcats to keep the ball on the ground much of the evening.
Fade – QB Kaiya Sheron ($4,500) https://twitter.com/thorku/status/1577862560640008192
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,800) I’m going to assume that Kentucky won’t ask its backup quarterback to throw many passes down the field beyond the first down sticks. That could help Tayvion Robinson’s production whose 24 receptions on 27 targets primarily come around the line of scrimmage with a 4.2 aDOT. Might end up being Sheron’s best friend come Saturday. We’ve seen Robinson line up in the backfield and take jet sweeps on multiple occasions in SEC play and wouldn’t surprise to see that happen against Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Barion Brown ($5,000) A recent surge in the last three weeks now has Brown second on the team in targets, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each game during that span. Potential added bonus that Brown doubles as the team’s primary return man, already with a 100-yard touchdown.
Injury Notes – QB Will Levis ($7,500) Line movement throughout the week seems to indicate folks are expecting Will Levis to sit on Saturday, and there are a few ominous tweets out there that suggest the same.
Washington State vs. USC
Point-Spread: USC -12.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: USC 39 – Wazzu 26.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Cameron Ward ($5,600) There really isn’t much analysis needed here when it comes to Ward. Draftkings flubbed the pricing here. And the passing game for Wazzu has been clicking the last three games.
Fade – Everyone outside the top four WRs. In Week 4, 31 of the 36 targets that went to WRs went to the starting foursome of Renard Bell, Robert Ferrel, Donovan Ollie and De’Zhaun Stribling. In Week 5, it was 26 of 31 targets. This isn’t a Mike Leach air raid system where we’re seeing 7-8 receivers catch three or more passes each week.
Bargain Bin – WR Robert Ferrel ($3,500) Very noticeable the last few weeks that the attention has shifted from the outside receivers at the start of the year to now in the slot of late. Since coming back to the lineup in Week 3, Ferrel immediately started producing, converting on all 17 of his targets with a pair of touchdowns in the last two weeks. Shouldn’t be much of a surprise considering Ferrel and Ward played together at Eastern Washington.
Pivot Play – WR Renard Bell ($4,800) We touched on above how Ward is finding his slot receivers of late. First and foremost is senior Renard Bell where 17 of his 28 targets have come in the last two games alone with over 200 combined receiving yards. USC is 4th in pass play explosiveness, so they’re good on the back end at limiting big plays, but 92nd in pass play success rate. Could spell good news between the hashes for someone like Bell.
Best of the Rest – RB Nakia Watson ($4,700) Watson probably won’t see a ton of ownership, but what he does still own is the Wazzu backfield, garnering 60% of the volume share. USC’s vulnerable against the run this season, allowing 19.6 FPPG and 104th in success rate. WR Donovan Ollie ($4,000) and De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,000) have been playing second fiddle to the slot receivers of late, but neither will break the bank to roster them. Both wideouts are averaging over six targets a game, and we mentioned the lack of rotation with the starters.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Travis Dye ($7,100) I’m simply playing the most attainable (price-wise) player on the USC offense which is the running back that has hit 20 fantasy points in each of the last four games. 44% of the backfield volume share and averages 2.4 targets per game. Washington State is no slouch defensively, ranking 32nd in rush play success rate. But have allowed two 20+ fantasy performances from Pac-12 running backs already.
Fade – QB Caleb Williams ($10,200) We need Caleb Williams to get 50 fantasy points here at this cost. And he hasn’t sniffed 40 points yet this year. After a frustrating Oregon State performance, the Trojans came out sloppy and uninspired (mostly on defense) last week too against Arizona State. Washington State is second in the conference in scoring defense and second in sacks. USC has given up 11 sacks already.
Bargain Bin – WR Brenden Rice ($3,100) Big disparity in routes run between the top three starters at receiver and the rest of the group. And Jerry Rice’s son is starting to come on of late with 16 of his 18 targets coming in the last three weeks. He should be $4,100, not $3,100.
Pivot Play – WR Mario Williams ($7,000) The production hasn’t been there this season, but Williams is still tied for first in targets, leads the team in routes run and second on the team with two receiving touchdowns. We want pieces of USC offense and Williams’ price is somewhat attainable.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Addison ($9,400) Still think this is even too pricy that its just not worth it to roster Addison if he’s not putting up similar numbers to the ones he did at Pittsburgh. And outside of the Stanford game, Addison is not doing that. Washington State is prone to allowing the big play in the passing game, though, ranking 121st in explosiveness. In multi-entry GPP, I’ll have a few lineups of just playing Addison by himself. Can’t realistically form a competitive lineup stacking him with Williams, and there isn’t a need to against a formidable Washington State defense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: KSU -1.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: KSU 23.5 – Iowa St 22
Weather: 56 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Kansas State:
My analysis won’t change each time that Kansas State is on a slate. It’s a two-man show for the Wildcats with QB Adrian Martinez ($8,400) and star RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,300). After five games, the duo now accounts for 87% of the team’s total yardage gained and 15 of the 18 offensive touchdowns. Kansas State is fourth in the country in rushing yards, averaging well over six yards a carry as a team after piling up 343 yards on the ground against what was a top 40 rush defense coming in with Texas Tech. There really is no secrecy to what Kansas State wants to do with the football, ranking 13th in the country as they keep the ball on the ground 61.7% of the time. Saturday will be the biggest challenge to date for Martinez and Co., facing an Iowa State run defense that ranks atop the Big 12, allowing just 83 yards per game. Since the opener, the Cyclones have held their last four opponents to under four yards a carry.
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($8,500) As close to a lock as it gets in college football. Second in the country in total targets (71) which equates to 14 a game!!! That’s 37% of the team’s total target share. If Jirehl Brock does not play, this game will come down to Hutchinson and the passing game. Defensively, the Wildcats are average across the board, ranking 68th in pass yards allowed and 71st in yards given up on the ground.
Fade – RBs not named Jirehl Brock We saw a split in carries between Deon Silas and Eli Sanders in place of the injured Brock against Kansas, with neither player finding much success. Combined the duo rushed for 39 yards on 20 carries. Why? The offensive line. 12 sacks allowed, which is the second worst mark in the conference. Iowa State is also 88th in line yards created, 63rd in stuff rate and 106th in second level yardage (per CollegeFootballData). The only RB I’m playing from Iowa State is Jirehl Brock.
Bargain Bin – WR Dimitri Stanley ($4,300) Major uptick in playing time and production for the Colorado transfer with 19 of his 20 targets coming in the last three games. Don’t know that I absolutely agree with a higher projection than sophomore Jaylin Noel, but they’re close enough where I’d take the salary savings. Stanley is trending upwards.
Pivot Play – QB Hunter Dekkers ($6,000) Particularly if Brock is out, Dekkers is going to have to win this game with his arm. Kansas State does rank 23rd in pass play success rate but are allowing 28.3 FPPG this season to opposing QBs. The Cyclones are now averaging 39 pass attempts per game in 2022, the highest number since Matt Campbell has been in Ames. While Dekkers hasn’t been an upgrade over Brock Purdy like some thought, there is prime opportunity here for fantasy production.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – RB Jirehl Brock ($6,200) I’m wrong plenty of times when it comes to analysis, but I sit here on Friday night searching message boards to find out of Brock is available or not for Saturday night. Do not question my work ethic and commitment! All that said, it looks to be a wasted venture as I came up wit…nothing. No news means good news? We’ll find out Saturday afternoon on Brock’s status (hopefully).
Clemson vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: Clem -20.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Clem 34.5 – BC 14
Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley (6,900) Very much in on Will Shipley over fantasy points props this week, and I like for the Clemson offense to lean on their sophomore running back in a night game that could near freezing cold temps at some point. As much as we think highly of the backfield depth Clemson possesses, Shipley is really only battling DJU for carries right now with 46% of the volume share. BC is very basic across the board defensively, ranking 63rd in success rate, 59th in rush explosiveness allowed and 14.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Only concern here really is Clemson blowing out BC and limiting the touches of their best offensive player.
Fade – WR Joe Ngata ($4,900) Don’t know when this move will happen, but the expectation is that 5-star FR Adam Randall will force his way into the starting lineup at some point over the mediocre Clemson starters. Ngata would be the first to exit, converting on just 56% of his targets with two drops and zero touchdowns in 2022. There isn’t a Clemson player with more than 15% target share.
Bargain Bin – WR Antonio Williams ($3,500) True freshman slot receiver is now firmly established in the starting lineup, currently third in routes run and targets. Led the team with five receptions on six targets against NC State last week.
Pivot Play – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,400) Clemson’s best pass-catcher? Former 4-star has three touchdowns in the last four games with 15 of his 17 total targets coming in that span. As with every other Boston College statistic defensively, they’re smack dab in the middle of the country, allowing 7.0 FPPG to opposing tight ends this season.
Best of the Rest – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,500) DJU does project well here at 26 fantasy points and has been legitimately good on the road, tossing six touchdowns and zero interceptions, completing 62% of his throws. The numbers aren’t bad for BC defensively, giving up 21.3 FPPG to quarterbacks and 44th in pass play success rate, but nothing insurmountable for DJU to have a good performance.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Second-lowest implied team total of the slate. I’m honestly still stunned that Boston College is this bad offensively, given the pieces they returned in 2022, but that’s what happens when your offensive line is the worst position group on the roster. Impacts the entire machine. WR Zay Flowers ($5,700) is the only option here, ranked 15th in the country in targets (52), with 34% of the team’s target share.
Army vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: WF -16.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: WF 41 – Army 24
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Army:
Everyone by now should remember last year’s memorable 70-56 offensive explosion between Army and Wake Forest. And while the Black Knights should be able to score some on this WF defense, we would not suggest game stacking for this year’s matchup. Army is utilizing multiple quarterbacks this season with Tyhier Tyler (runner) and Cade Ballard (passer) which suppresses value on both. Tyler has scored 20+ fantasy points in each of the last three games played and WF is allowing just under 200 rushing yards per game. He’d be the choice of the two QBs if selecting one. Jakobi Buchanan and Tyson Riley will split reps at B-back, though the former is the “starter” in name. Both players have dealt with injuries this season, so don’t be fooled by Riley’s 20-attempt performance in Week 3. WR1 Isaiah Alston caught three touchdowns in this game a year ago, but doesn’t have one yet this season. Close to 50% team target share. A-Back Tyrell Robinson is a P5 level player that averages about as many touches (8.75) as he does yards per carry (9.1).
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($9,300) We’ll touch on the Army run defense below, but the Knights’ secondary is ripe for the picking. 33.0 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks, 123rd in pass play success rate and 83rd in explosiveness allowed. Hartman will carve them apart. Its just a matter if Army keeps up enough to get 40 points out of the Wake Forest QB1 and not 25.
Fade – Taylor Morin ($4,900) As far as fading goes, this really should be “n/a” because Wake is the team to stack this week. But Morin looks to be trending downwards here with fellow slot man Ke’Shawn Williams ($4,200) doing the opposite. Snap counts haven’t changed really for either player, but 16 of Williams’ 21 targets have come in the last three games. Just 12 targets for Morin in that stretch. Not a ton of disparity, but we’re trying to look for subtle hints to help us. In reality, every receiver could potentially eat on Saturday against this Army defense.
Bargain Bin – See above with Ke’Shawn Williams.
Pivot Play – RB Justice Ellison ($5,900) We hate Wake Forest running backs normally, but love Ellison this week as a pivot play, and even considered him as the top option for the Deacons this week. Army’s defense is horrendous in every sense of the word, particularly against the run where why’re allowing 24.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s, third most in the country. WF’s running game is starting to trend upwards since the second half of the Clemson game, and Ellison is coming off a season-high 114 yards and a touchdown against Florida State.
Best of the Rest – WR A.T. Perry ($7,200) Tied a season-high with 11 targets to go along with eight receptions and a touchdown in the win over Florida State. There’s still a ton of depth in the Wake Forest WR corps, and both Jahmal Banks ($5,600) and Donavon Greene ($5,100) could end up as the top performer on Saturday night. But the concerns that Perry’s value was on a steep decline were overblown. In a potential blowout situation, RB Christian Turner ($5,100) could be of some value this week as well. WF running game on the uptick, and Turner saw 20 carries against Florida State last Saturday. Dave Clawson loves to rotate his RBs.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -3.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ND 27 – BYU 23.5
Weather: Dome
BYU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaren Hall ($7,800) Hall has been playing with a M.A.S.H unit of receivers all season long, yet continues to perform with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. Strength of the ND defense has been its play on the backend, ranking 17th in pass play success rate. Outside of the Drake Maye 47-point explosion where game script played a major role, the Irish have limited opposing quarterbacks for the most part.
Fade – RB Chris Brooks ($6,100) Yes, it’s me, the guy who is still salty about not hitting his Chris Brooks under prop last week in a game where he had negative rushing yards at half. Brooks may start on Saturday with Miles Davis banged up, but I am not playing any BYU running back behind an offensive line that is 114th in line yards, 118th in stuff rate and 111th in second level yards. ND can be vulnerable against the run, but we’re not spending $6k for a BYU running back this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Kody Epps ($4,600) This answer would be Miles Davis or Puka Nacua if they played, but we must roll with what we know for certain. And that’s with Kody Epps who has come on strong the last three weeks with a touchdown in each game. Had a season-high 86 yards against Utah State last week. Given that Epps works primarily in the slot, I believe Nacua’s availability would of the most importance here to Epps’ value.
Pivot Play – WR Gunner Romney ($5,200) The most expensive of the BYU receivers, but promising that Romney stepped right in following his absence and was tied for the team lead in targets. Played just 33 of 61 offensive snaps so he was very effective in the limited time on the field.
Best of the Rest – WR Keanu Hill ($4,800) Played 51 of the 60 available offensive snaps and did record a touchdown against Utah State. That’s three in the last two games alone, and leads the team in routes run for the season. He’s on the field more than any other wideout.
Injury Notes – Head coach Kilani Sitake said that Miles Davis, Puka Nacua and Chase Roberts were “probable” or a “possibility” for this weekend. I’m not holding my breath for any of them. We’ll wait and see what officially comes out prior to game time, but I’m making lineups initially in a world where they do not play. UPDATE – Puka Nacua is expected to play.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($5,500) With every passing week, the Notre Dame running game looks to be improving, as the Irish nearly rushed for 300 yards against North Carolina in Week 4. Still a three-headed backfield, but Estime is the grinder in between the tackles, and he had a huge day against the Heels with 133 yards and a pair of scores. BYU is soft on the interior, ranking 114th in rush play success rate and gave up 10 rushing first downs against Utah State last week.
Fade – QB Drew Pyne ($5,300) Credit where credit is due for Pyne, throwing for 289 yards and three touchdowns in the win at North Carolina. Now do it against an opponent that is not one of the worst defenses in the country, unlike the Tar Heels. Overall numbers are good for the BYU secondary, ranked 34th in pass play success rate and 27th in explosiveness but it is a group that has struggled of late. 44 fantasy points to Bo Nix is understandable at this juncture. 29 fantasy points to Cooper Legas is not.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Chris Tyree ($5,200) It’s pretty clear that ND will look to establish the run on Saturday as they have the edge in the trenches and want to keep the running game trending upward. I’m definitely not advising playing two ND running backs in a lineup, but you could make the argument for either Estime or Tyree this week. Love that Tommy Rees is finally utilizing Tyree how he should’ve been all year long with nine targets in the last two games. That’s in addition to 15 or more carries in that span with 144 combined rushing yards.
Best of the Rest – TE Michael Mayer ($5,600) We’ve written about Mayer enough that you should know what to expect by now. Found the end-zone in each of the last three games and is the team leader in targets (34) by a considerable margin. Highest floor of any player on the slate but won’t win you a large GPP.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -24.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Ala 37.5 – A&M 13
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Doesn’t have the sorta ring that “Braelon or Bust” has in our main slate writeups, but the messaging is the same. RB Devon Achane ($6,000) or bust. Don’t trust Haynes King enough to feed any of the talented A&M receivers, despite their low cost. Alabama is allowing just 11.5 FPPG to opposing RBs this season and 6th in rush play success rate. Probably best served to just avoid the Aggies on Saturday night.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,600) Gibbs doubled his previous season-high with 18 carries for 200 yards and two scores against Arkansas last week. Is that the game plan again with Bryce Young out? I tend to think so because the workloads for backups Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams were basically the same they’ve been all season. A&M is only allowing 11.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but is 67th in rush play success rate defensively.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($6,900) Fading the highest-priced Alabama receiver feels like the best strategy in 2022. Holden is the team leader in targets but accounts for just 16% of the team target share. Ball is being spread around more than we’ve ever seen it for the Tide and now they don’t have Bryce Young.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Jase McClellan ($4,800) Alabama’s offensive line mashed against Arkansas, and I guarantee Saban is revving up that group again this week without Young. There is a chance this game becomes a slog and the Tide just try and mash their way to victory with the running game. And while Gibbs had a season-high in carries last week, he’s not a Braelon Allen that will carry it 30 times. Could argue McClellan is the best pure runner on the roster as he’s averaging 7.5 YPC and scored a TD in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – QB Jalen Milroe ($8,000) We haven’t seen Milroe play much but do know this staff is infatuated with the sophomore quarterback. And he did account for two touchdowns in relief of Young against Arkansas, including a 77-yard TD run. Our projection has Milroe a tad higher than some others that I’ve seen but you’re getting a 24-26-point projection for an $8k quarterback which keeps him in play as an option. Plus, lets be honest, there is a motivation factor here for Saban to absolutely obliterate A&M given the offseason comments between the two coaches and for last year’s upset. That’s just storyline speculation, though.
Injury Notes – QB Bryce Young ($9,700) Young will not play this week due to a shoulder injury.
Florida State vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -3.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: NC St 27 – FSU 23
Weather: 56 degrees / 5% rain / 5 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan Travis ($8,100) Wheels came off a bit last week for FSU in the loss to Wake Forest, and now face the second-best defense in the ACC. Don’t trust the Seminoles to run the ball effectively against NC State’s defensive front, and we rarely roster FSU receivers, so this game comes down to how Jordan Travis performs. 21-point projection at $8,100 is probably a fade, but really nobody else here of interest on the FSU side.
Fade – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,700) Split backfield against the No. 15 run defense in the country? I’d debate sitting Ward even if he garnered 60% of the volume share in the FSU backfield. Opposing RB1s are averaging just 11.0 FPPG against the Wolfpack this year.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,700) We’re not used to seeing this from the Seminoles in recent years, but Wilson is developing into a bonafide WR1 for FSU. First in yards, first in touchdowns, first in receptions, first in targets and the highest yards per route run (3.61) of any wideout on the team.
Best of the Rest – WR Mycah Pittman ($5,400) Of course at his highest price point of the season, Pittman ends up going off for 85 yards and two scores against Wake Forest. That’s now nine receptions on 10 targets in the last two weeks for the junior receiver that leads all wideouts in routes run this season. Very cautious about playing FSU receivers against an NC State secondary that is second nationally in pass play success rate and allowing just 12.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Tough matchup all around for the Noles this week.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – WR Thayer Thomas ($6,200) I’ll start by saying NC State could put up 30 this week and this is probably still a full-team fade. The Wolfpack could still win the ACC, yet there is really nothing here to like/love from a fantasy standpoint. We’ll roll with Thomas here at an attainable salary as a player whose trajectory is on the rise with 23 targets coming in the last two games alone.
Fade – QB Devin Leary ($6,800) Game script works against Leary here as a favorite and playing on a team where the defense is winning NC State games this year. Essentially, Leary is now a game manager that is tasked with not making mistakes. Completion percentage is down, yards per game are down, attempts are down. Florida State is allowing over 26 FPPG to opposing QBs but has been gashed by runners like Malik Cunningham and Jayden Daniels. Leary won’t run.
Bargain Bin – WR Keyon Lesane ($3,100) Lesane is third on the team in both targets (212) and routes run this season for NC State, with some decent separation between him and the fourth receiver. 12 of his 21 targets have come in the last two weeks, though everything is around the line of scrimmage.
Pivot Play – WR Devin Carter ($5,300) Taller receivers have given the Seminole secondary fits this season with both AT Perry (6-foot-5) and Jaray Jenkins (6-foot-2) scoring over 20 fantasy points vs. FSU. The 6-foot-3 Carter will be the forgotten man of the NC State receivers but is second in both targets (23) and routes run.
Best of the Rest – RB Demie Sumo ($5,000) Just not a good week against Clemson for the running game or NC State’s offensive line. Understandable given the opponent. Excuses go out the window against Florida State who is ninth in the ACC in rush defense and ranks 88th in rush play success rate. We’ll always have a split backfield, but we lean towards talent with Sumo who is simply the better player over Jordan Houston.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Arizona
Point-Spread: Oreg -13.5
O/U Total: 70.5
Implied Score: Oreg 42 – Az 28.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 57% rain / 6 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Bo Nix ($8,900) With any other QB, I might be concerned that Oregon just mashes it against this Arizona front in the run game, but Nix is going to join in on the fun! And with the Wildcats throwing the ball the way they have, getting an implied team total of four touchdowns, I don’t think we’re at risk of Nix not being utilized to his fullest extent to win this game.
Fade – WR Dont’e Thornton ($3,500) Not sure if there is something behind the scenes, and its unfortunate because he’s a talented player who we thought would emerge this season, but this has the looks of an offseason transfer candidate. Just one target in each of the last three games, and his snaps have fallen significantly. Unless there is an injury we’re unaware of, Thornton is out of the rotation.
Bargain Bin – RB Noah Whittington ($3,500) Likely to be a popular play among the sharps as it is a dead-even split in the Oregon backfield for carries between Whittington and “starter” Markeise Irving. Makes perfect sense as Oregon is going to pound the ball into oblivion on Saturday night against the 125th ranked Arizona rush defense that has allowed four yards a carry in all five games this season. And that includes North Dakota State, along with two of the worst offenses in college football in San Diego State and Colorado. Oregon should have their way in the trenches.
Pivot Play – RB Markeise Irving ($5,400) Whittington will be the popular play to cut costs, but Irving is the team’s starter. Leads all Pac-12 running backs in yards per carry (7.54) At least 70 yards on the ground in each of the last four games. This is the strongest “pivot” play on the board in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Cota ($3,900) We’re focused on the Arizona rush defense but don’t forget about the Oregon passing game here, who should also have a good day if Bo Nix continues to play the way he has. Cota’s production has spiked the last two weeks with nine receptions on 13 targets and double-digit fantasy points in each game. He leads all Oregon receivers in routes run. WR Troy Franklin ($5,200) continues to pace the group with the team lead in receptions and targets. Those are the only two wide receivers I would consider for Oregon.
Injury Notes – Byron Cardwell ($4,700) I know Cardwell has been in pregame warmups the last two games but didn’t see the field at all against Stanford last week. Have to assume he’s very close to a return, but even then, he was third in the pecking order. Not playable.
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – QB Jayden de Laura ($6,700) This matchup just sets up beautifully for points. Arizona passing game is straight rolling. The Wildcats are two touchdown underdogs so game script is fantastic. Oregon is stout against the run, but susceptible against the pass, ranking 112th in pass play success rate. And de Laura is relatively cheap. The danger here is Arizona is not great playing from behind, which it likely will be on Saturday, and de Laura is forced into making bonehead decisions which is he definitely prone to do.
Fade – RB Jonah Coleman ($4,400) I thought prior to the year we would get a full-fledged committee in the Arizona backfield. Instead, Michael Wiley ($5,300) is beginning to separate with double-digit carries in the last two weeks. I don’t think Arizona is going to be able to run the ball effectively against the second-best rush defense in the conference, so I’d rather play the starter in Wiley who is also an effective pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner McLachlan ($3,500) Had literally no idea who this was until a lost an under prop on him three weeks ago. Fourth on the team in targets (22) with at least 50 yards receiving in three of the last four games.
Pivot Play – WR Jacob Cowing ($7,400) You wouldn’t think that Arizona’s WR1 would be a pivot play, but I think most people are going to be looking to cut costs and roster one of the other talent Wildcat receivers. Cowing currently leads the Pac-12 and ranks among the top five FBS players in receiving TDs, receiving yards, receiving yards per game, and receptions per game.
Best of the Rest – WR Dorian Singer ($5,000) Singer was a player on the rise late last year and that strong play has continued into 2022, now averaging 8.4 targets a game. Topped 100 yards in each of the last two weeks. In the same vein as de Laura, I’m curious to see how the Arizona passing game looks against a stretch of ranked opponents upcoming. WR Tetairoa McMillan ($4,200) hasn’t been as efficient as his counterparts but is third on the team in both targets (38) and routes run, while second in touchdowns (3). He’s on the field just as much as both Cowing and Singer.
Injury Notes – n/a
