Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State
Point-Spread: CCU -19
O/U Total: 72.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Is it possible to roster all three running backs this week for Coastal Carolina? I understand the frustration with the CCU backfield with carries being split between Reese White, Braydon Bennett and Shemari Jones, but we’ll want a piece of at least two of them taking on the 129th ranked rush defense in the country in Arkansas State who just gave up 500 yards on the ground to Georgia Southern. Just a massive advantage for Coastal on the ground in this matchup where their experienced offensive line ranks 11th in Line Yards and 6th in Rush Play Success Rate. Head coach Jamey Chadwell said that Jones will be back in the lineup this week, as will starting QB Grayson McCall who was in a walking boot when he came out of the halftime locker room last week. Chadwell said his star QB is ready to “rock and roll.” Could we take a pass on McCall this week considering the matchup that heavily favors CCU on the ground? McCall’s efficiency numbers have improved but the volume has taken a dip from last year, where he’s averaging just 5.4 carries per game – half of what he averaged a year ago.
What has remained the same this year is the target share for Jaivon Heiligh and Isaiah Likely who account for 50 percent of the volume with eight of the 14 receiving touchdowns. All four of Likely’s TDs have come in the last three weeks, and Arkansas State has already given up a 35+ point performance to a tight end this season (Sean Dykes). Kameron Brown starts opposite Heiligh on the outside and is third on the team with 12-191-1 on 16 targets, and had a season-high seven targets vs. ULM last week. If looking for a separator at running back, Bennett is the preferred option in the passing game with 10 receptions on 10 targets. Tyson Mobley, Tyler Roberts and Greg Latushko are the other receivers who see rotational snaps if you are thinking Coastal blowout.
Arkansas State:
Based on Butch Jones’ comments after the game, it still sounds like they’re content with rolling out James Blackman as the starter, as he told reporters that he didn’t consider making a switch in the 3rd quarter despite three interceptions from Blackman against Georgia Southern. Layne Hatcher came in to throw for two touchdowns, but completed less than 50 percent of his passes and turned the ball over as well. Unless we get indication of a firm switch, the smart play here is to still roll out Blackman if wanting a piece of the Arkansas State QB situation. In larger GPPs, maybe you go contrarian and start Hatcher with the hopes that Jones makes a switch mid-game and Hatcher has the hot hand. Just no way of knowing. The Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt by a wide margin, averaging 50 pass attempts per game and nearly 380 yards through the air, but take on a CCU pass defense that 22nd in pass coverage grades per PFF and 13th in Pass Play Success Rate. Coastal hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown yet this season.
Even if we avoid the QBs, we do want some exposure to the Arkansas State receivers with how much they throw the ball. Corey Rucker, Jeff Foreman and Te’Vailance Hunt have remained the starters through the first five games, but we are seeing more and more guys dip into the snap count share as the season goes along, namely Dahu Green who is back from injury and has found the end-zone each of the last two weeks. His appearance back in the lineup means Hunt’s snap counts have taken a hit since the start of the season, and has just nine targets in the last two weeks. I believe this was due to last week’s blowout, but backups Adam Jones, Reagan Ealy and Jack Combs all saw season-highs in snaps. Would still lean towards the top four options as the primary group if this remains a competitive contest. Freshman tight end Emmanual Stevenson had just one target last week, but has been a steady presence in the Arkansas State passing attack with 11 receptions and averaging a little over four targets a game.
Running the football is optional for Arkansas State, and based on their 3.26 YPC team average, there is a reason they throw it 50 times a game. Lincoln Pare found the most success last week with 54 yards on seven carries to go along with 3-25-1 on four targets in the passing game. Pare now has 14 catches on 16 targets this season. Snap counts are nearly even, though, between Pare, Iowa State transfer Johnnie Lang and Alan Lamar. ASU’s offensive line has actually done a nice job this year, ranking 31st in Line Yards, meaning their 73rd overall ranking in Rush Success Rate falls on the running backs and this offensive system.
Houston @ Tulane
Point-Spread: Hou -6
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 8% rain / 2 mph winds
Houston:
Another clean (ish) performance from Clayton Tune last week against Tulsa, completing 71 percent of his passes for 241 yards and two scores, though he did toss the one interception. Again, and maybe this is due to the hamstring injury he suffered two weeks ago, but Tune isn’t using his legs much this year, now averaging just 5.8 attempts per game with only seven carries in the last three weeks. Tune not being effective with his legs really diminishes his value, but a VERY favorable matchup for him against a Tulane defense that is allowing the second most FPPG to opposing QB1s in the entire country at 38.7. Skewed a bit by Matt Corral’s 65-point outburst but Spencer Rattler, Dylan Hopkins and Holton Ahlers all topped 25 fantasy points against the Green Wave defense. Not shockingly, Tulane ranks 121st in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate.
Will have to monitor pregame the status of Ta’Zhawn Henry who I believe left the contest last week with an injury, though I haven’t seen anything firm on that. Even if Henry is available, Alton McCaskill is now THE guy in the Houston backfield after rushing for three scores last week and now has 20 total touches in each of the last three games. Mulbah Car has now become the third option in the Houston backfield, seeing just garbage time work vs. Tulsa. The Green Wave are only marginally better at defending the run this season, giving up over 200 yards on the ground and 14 rushing scores with opposing RB1s averaging 19.5 FPPG.
We know about Nathaniel Dell as the clear WR1 for Houston, averaging around nine targets per contest and 29 percent of the target share. KeSean Carter and Jeremy Singleton saw the second and third-most snaps, respectively, last week, but the production hasn’t been noteworthy for much of the season. Singleton did have a 47-yard touchdown vs. Tulsa but had all of one target on the day. WR4 Jaylen Erwin saw a season-high 33 snaps with four targets, and we also saw extended action from both Jake Herslow and Seth Green, though the score may have had something to do with that. Tight end Christian Trahan remains the team’s second-best pass-catching option, averaging around four targets and 35 receiving yards per game. As has been the case with every position, Tulane can’t cover tight ends either this season, allowing 12.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s.
Tulane
Not loving this matchup here for Michael Pratt facing one of the best defensive lines not only in the AAC, but probably in the country at wreaking havoc in opposing backfields. Houston is allowing just 15.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s, though have to take under consideration they’ve faced Navy and Rice in that span – two teams who don’t throw the ball much at all. Pratt has seen the uptick in volume that we expected under offensive coordinator Chip Long, averaging 32 attempts per game compared to 25 a year ago, but his efficiency hasn’t taken that second-year jump, completing just 59 percent of his throws. The Cougars are fifth overall nationally in pass defense and fifth in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Pratt hit 20 fantasy points scored in four of the five games played this year so he does provide a solid floor as Tulane have trailed opponents for much of the season, but aren’t bad enough to not be competitive either which provides a favorable game script.
Tulane appears to have whittled the rotation down to just three in the backfield with Cameron Carroll, Tyjae Spears and Ygenio Booker seeing the majority of the work. Former Utah transfer Devin Brumfield announced he is transferring again. Carroll leads the team with around 10 touches per game, but is not featured much in the passing game. Booker has seen a significant uptick in playing time over the last two weeks with 15 carries in the span, and looks to be the team’s best pass-catcher out of the backfield with nine catches on 11 targets against UAB and East Carolina. Spears seems to be the third option in the rotation – disappointing after such a promising start to his 2020 season but still hasn’t fully recovered from the injury that ended his year it appears. Tulane’s offensive line is a big part of the problem here as they’re 110th in Line Yards and 110th in Stuff Rate. I’d avoid this group entirely.
After a slow start to the year, for whatever reason, Duece Watts is looking like the team’s WR1 that he was a season ago, now with 19 of his 29 total targets coming in the last two weeks. Jaetavian Toles only had two targets last week, but leads all WRs on the team in total snaps this year and still has a dependable role on offense each week. Tight end Tyrick James has been arguably the most consistent pass-catcher on the team with at least two receptions in every game, and the second-most targets on the team with 26. Crap shoot beyond those three with Phatt Watts, Jha’Quan Jackson and Shae Wyatt seeing rotational work. Watts had a season-high five targets vs. East Carolina, while Jackson didn’t have a single one despite playing 25 snaps.
Become a member of theCFFsite and gain access to all exclusive DFS content, which includes all write-ups and Weekly Player Rankings/Projections. Click here for details.