Clemson @ Syracuse
Point-Spread: Clem -14
O/U Total: 45
Weather: Dome
Clemson:
Will Shipley has already been announced out this week, with Dabo Swinney saying he is off crutches now, meaning we should get another heavy dose of Kobe Pace who rushed for 125 yards and a TD on 18 carries vs. Boston College. Backup Phil Mafah did see some work with eight carries, averaging 7.3 YPC, but I’d expect the split to be similar between the two backs this week. Been tough sledding against the Cuse this season on the ground – outside of the Florida State game – as the Orange are giving up just 3.1 YPC and opposing RB1s averaging just 10.1 FPPG. Don’t see any major statistical advantages here for the Clemson rushing attack so Pace is a decent play at his pricing, but not someone we need to be overweight on. At receiver, still just two playable options here in Justyn Ross and Joseph Ngata who account for 46 percent of the target share. Both should continue to be featured as E.J. Williams is still not 100 percent healthy according to Swinney, and Frank Ladson is questionable with a groin injury. In Ladson’s place, FR Beaux Collins saw his most extended work of the season against BC with five targets – didn’t convert on any. Tight end Braden Galloway was in concussion protocol during the bye week and no update as of now. Just nine targets on the season with six coming in the opener against UGA.
The continued dilemma of D.J. Uiagalelei and if we need to roster him this week. How much did the bye week help as a reset to DJU’s season? Syracuse is sitting second in the ACC in pass defense but this is a beatable secondary. 51st in Pass Play Success Rate. Allowing opposing QBs to complete nearly 70 percent of their passes. Allowed eight of the 10 touchdowns passes in the last three games where Sam Hartman, Malik Willis and Jordan Travis have all scored 28 fantasy points or more. I know the Orange had that massive upset over Clemson at home in 2017, but this really is a series that has been dominated by the Tigers over the last decade.
Syracuse:
Dino Babers may have saved his job by finally transforming his offense to something that is successful with Garrett Shrader under center, but this isn’t the week to start him. Clemson is allowing just 16 FPPG to opposing QBs, which only partially applies to Shrader as he’s averaging just 11 completions per game since taking over as the starter. The Tigers are allowing under three yards a carry on the ground and now have had an extra week to prepare for the Cuse offense with the bye. Sean Tucker is a no-go this week at his pricing for me, along with the plethora of options available to us at running back. Clemson is allowing just 10.7 FPPG to opposing RBs this season. The volume Tucker receives is about the only appealing attribute for Tucker this week, averaging 29 touches per game since Shrader took over the QB1 spot. Only two viable options in the passing game for Syracuse look to be slot-man Courtney Jackson and Anthony Queeley, with the latter being the preferred of the two for me. Jackson has led the team in targets (13) in each of the last two weeks, but Queeley isn’t far behind at 11, found the end-zone in the each of the last two games, and higher upside with an aDOT of 21.5 in that span.
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