Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT -1.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: TT 28.5 – K-St 27
Weather: Dome
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,700) Looking for a bounce back performance from Will Howard this week after he played his worst game of the season against Oklahoma State, tossing three interceptions in the loss. Really strong 27-point projection for this pricing, facing a below average Texas Tech secondary that allows the 27th most fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks. Howard also has a rushing touchdown in all but one game this season.
Fade – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,000) The former Iowa transfer has seen an uptick in playing time the last two weeks since coming back from injury, but still appears to be the 4th or 5th option in the Kansas State passing game. Played less than 50% of snaps against Oklahoma State last week, splitting time with WR RJ Garcia ($5,000) If that split continues, both essentially are nullified from the conversation.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Jackson ($4,600) Jackson took advantage while both RJ Garcia and Keagan Johnson missed time due to injury, and has seemingly secured a starting job, playing 84% of the offensive snaps last week vs. Oklahoma State.
Pivot Play – TE Ben Sinnott $5,400) Second on the team in targets (35) and routes run this season, facing a Texas Tech defense that is allowing the 18th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends. And that was against Wyoming, West Virginia, and Houston – teams that don’t frequently target the tight end position in the passing game. Sinnott will be the best tight end Tech has faced all season.
Best of the Rest – I watched that entire game last week against Oklahoma State and my biggest takeaway was that there is no longer a competition for who is the RB1 for the Wildcats – this is DJ Giddens’ ($6,500) job moving forward. 59-16 advantage in offensive snaps played in favor of Giddens, though Ward did look like his explosive self when he did touch the football with 59 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts. WR Phillip Brooks ($6,900) should see low ownership at his pricing and like him as a GPP play as the team leader in targets (38) and receptions (27). Tech has allowed four receivers to score 19 fantasy points or more against them this season, three of which have come in B12 play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($6,300) We’ll stick with Brooks here as the top play, but we still believe there is going to come a time when Tech will revert back to their Air Raid tendencies under OC Zach Kittley. If there was a time that would occur, Saturday night might be it as Kansas State has been very strong defending the run, ranking 4th in rush D success rate and allowing just 15 FPPG to RB1s. Brooks might’ve actually been a fade too had it not been for us watching Ollie Gordon rush for 136 yards against this same defense. If Gordon can do that, Brooks and this Tech ground game is fully capable.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,900) Our projected WR1 for Tech coming into the year has been a complete non-factor since the Tahj Brooks takeover. Specifically, the last two weeks with just 11 receiving yards on a combined five targets. I would say that it’s solely attributed to Tech running the football effectively, but the number of snaps and routes run for Bradley have also declined over that two-game span. This seems like a product of whom Behren Morton is most comfortable throwing to.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($3,700) Not sure if this will be a permanent thing, but Eakin has seen a meteoric rise in playing time over the last three weeks and caught a TD pass against Baylor last Saturday. The 6-foot-2 redshirt freshman played 77% of the offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($6,300) At some point, B12 defenses are going to smarten up and load the box to stop Tahj Brooks and this running game. The good news for Tech is they have a legitimate quarterback to defeat defenses that employ such a strategy. Morton was outstanding last week against Baylor, completing 73% of his passes with four combined touchdowns in the win. I’d go as far as saying that Morton is so cheap here that you can stack both he and Brooks together in a lineup as well. K-State is only allowing 18.3 FPPG to QB1s this season, but don’t grade out well against the pass, ranking 66th in success rate and 93rd in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Myles Price ($4,900) The Price has been Right the last two weeks with the senior slot receiver catching a combined 15 passes on 18 targets in Big 12 play. Price’s connection with Morton is evident, and we’ve harped on the role the slot receiver plays in the Air Raid offense under Kittley (Malachi Corley, Jerreth Sterns).
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Wazzu -7.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Wazzu 32.5 – AZ 25
Weather: 66 degrees / 2% rain / 8 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob Cowing ($7,000) I remember in the preseason, and I was guilty of this too, but everyone was jumping on sophomore Tet McMillan in CFF drafts because of the immense upside. Well, the senior receiver Jacob Cowing continues to pace the Arizona receivers, leading the team in nearly every receiving category after hauling in three touchdown last Saturday against USC. Washington State is allowing the 31st most fantasy points in the country to opposing WR groups.
Fade – n/a. Outside of the game-time decisions of Jayden de Laura and Michael Wiley, everyone mentioned for Arizona in this writeup is a potential option. They’re priced appropriately.
Bargain Bin – WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($4,100) I thought we’d see more involvement from MLC this season as he was assuming close to 100 targets even as the WR3 for Arizona following the departure of Dorian Singer to USC. That hasn’t transpired with just 12 receptions on 17 targets in six games, but MLC has played over 74% of the offensive snaps for Arizona this season. Production returns aren’t there, but Craig is on the field a ton with almost zero rotation at the WR position.
Pivot Play – RB Jonah Coleman ($5,500) Average to below-average rush defense for Washington State, allowing 15.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s, ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in yards given up per game on the ground, and 93rd in Rush D success rate. Whatever production you were getting from Michael Wiley, you’ll get that and then some from Coleman who some view as the better pure running back.
Best of the Rest – WR Tet McMillan ($6,200) No reason not to have McMillan or Cowing in your lineup and can stack both if you want as Arizona has a top-heavy target share. QB Noah Fifita ($7,400) is viewed by some as the QB1 in waiting behind de Laura and might be QB1 right this moment after throwing for five TDs last week in the narrow loss to USC. 21.7 projection probably doesn’t warrant playing Fifita this week against a pretty good Wazzu secondary that has allowed just one QB to surpass 20 fantasy points in a game. RB DJ Williams ($3,800) has been in college for a decade it seems. Double-digit carries in each of the last three games.
Injury Notes – QB Jayden de Laura ($7,700) Messaging from HC Jedd Fisch is that de Laura needs to be 100% to regain his starting spot. If he’s at 95%, it’ll be Fifita. I highly doubt we see de Laura on Saturday. As for RB Michael Wiley ($5,100), I don’t anticipate we see him either, but the beat writer was confusing with his posts on the Arizona message board. First saying that it sounds like Wiley is out for this week, then backtracks by saying Fisch wants to get him 10-15 snaps on Saturday. But his “vibes” are telling him that Wiley won’t play. My head hurts. 10-15 snaps is not worth starting any player in DFS. Don’t risk playing Wiley.
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Kyle Williams ($5,600) Double-digit fantasy points in every game this season for Williams, who should once again be Cam Ward’s top target with Lincoln Victor out and Josh Kelly potentially not at 100%. 18 of his 30 targets this season have come in the last two weeks. WR1s are averaging 17.5 FPPG against the Wildcats this season. Williams is probably my favorite play of the entire slate.
Fade – n/a. Everyone is priced appropriately that the key contributors for Wazzu are all options.
Bargain Bin – WR Carlos Hernandez ($4,700) 15 of his 25 targets have come in the last two weeks with Victor out of the lineup. The true freshman has been a favorite of the coach’s since March in spring practice. More value in DK than FD because of the PPR scoring format as Hernandez is only averaging 7.7 YPC.
Pivot Play – RB Nakia Watson ($4,800) Running the football is simply not a priority under OC Ben Arbuckle, as the Cougars are 120th in rush play percentage (41.7%). That said, Arizona is allowing the 24th most fantasy points this season to opposing RB1s. This was also a hot topic between Watson and beat reporters this week who questioned him about Washington State’s woes running the football. Something tells me he’ll find the end-zone on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – QB Cameron Ward ($9,100) Projections indicate Ward is the best QB play of the slate. I don’t totally disagree, but also have some hesitancy to where you could fade him. Average Arizona secondary statistically, ranked 77th in pass D success rate, but have allowed just one quarterback this season to score more than 20 fantasy points against them. Heck, Michael Penix Jr. – albeit down both Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze – was limited to just 14.5 fantasy points. Ward will also be without at least one starting receiver and potentially two, depending on Josh Kelly’s status.
Injury Notes – WR Lincoln Victor ($5,800) Victor is not expected to play on Saturday. Seems like he could potentially play in Week 8. WR Josh Kelly ($6,100) could make or break the slate. The quote from HC Jake Dickert is that Kelly is “working through some pain and stuff” but is expected to play on Saturday despite not practicing for a portion of the week. To me, that indicates fading Kelly despite the potential he brings to the Wazzu WR room. Huge risk / reward scenario.
Auburn vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -11.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: LSU 36 – Aub 24.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jarquez Hunter ($5,500) Auburn is 7th nationally in run play percentage and the best route for the Tigers to steal a win here, in my opinion, is to limit possessions and make it an ugly rock fight. While nowhere near as bad defending the run as they are against the pass, we saw just last week this LSU defense allow 100+ yards and multiple scores to Missouri RB Cody Schrader. LSU is allowing 19.1 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Ja’Varrius Johnson ($3,800) Search Ja’Varrius Johnson on Twitter. One beat writer says doubtful. The next says questionable. The next says Johnson was a full participant. I say avoid the confusion entirely for a wide receiver on a team that only throws the ball 37.1% of the time – 127th in the country.
Bargain Bin – TE Rivaldo Fairweather ($4,000) LSU is allowing the sixth most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends. The former FIU transfer had a season-high seven targets last time out against Georgia.
Pivot Play – QBs. We know how bad the LSU secondary is, ranked 123rd in the country in yards allowed through the air and giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The tricky part about this situation is picking the right quarterback here, if you so choose, because Auburn will use both Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford on Saturday. I think this is simply a stay-away situation because of the unknown factor, and I don’t believe Auburn can win a shootout on the road, so they’ll want to condense the game somehow. But seemingly every QB this season has been able to find success against the LSU secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Jay Fair ($4,700) Auburn will probably be a full-team fade for me admittedly, but three touchdowns are coming from somewhere with the Tigers so we’ll need to uncover a potential piece or two to have in our lineups. And what better spot to target than a player facing this leaky LSU secondary. Fair leads the team in targets (27), receptions (18) and yards (196). LSU is giving up the 10th most fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. RB Brian Battie ($4,500) is the quick, change-of-pace RB2 that has had 10 touches in each of the last two games. WR Shane Hooks ($4,500) is Auburn’s top deep threat on the outside, ranked third in targets (17) and receptions (8). Please limit to just one Auburn receiver in a lineup, at best.
Injury Notes – RB Damari Alston ($4,900) Doubtful for Saturday night according to Hugh Freeze.
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Nabers ($8,800) What more is there to say with Malik Nabers and this LSU passing game? Double-digit targets in three of the last four games. Auburn has yet to allow an opposing receiver to score more than 19 fantasy points against them in 2023, so I wouldn’t go overboard with LSU passing game exposure.
Fade – Backup RBs. Insert RB Logan Diggs’ ($6,200) face into the meme generator with an image from the movie Captain Phillips with the quote “Hey, look at me, I am the captain now.” What was once thought to be a cluttered backfield is anything but now. Just two rushing attempts went to running backs not named Logan Diggs last week against Missouri. Similar story the week prior as well. As for the matchup for Diggs, Auburn is not as stingy defending the run, and I trust LSU against anyone with their experienced offensive line. Diggs will be in a lot of my lineups.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,300) I looked to see Auburn’s numbers against opposing tight ends and saw they are 112th in fantasy points allowed. Looks like a good matchup for Taylor, right? Then I remembered that Auburn most recently faced Brock Bowers, so the numbers are definitely skewed. Jayden Daniels is looking in three directions in the passing game, one of which is Taylor who is third in receptions (17) and targets (21).
Pivot Play – WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,100) I’m amazed by the discrepancy in prices for the two LSU receivers because they’re numbers are not all that different this season, with Thomas actually leading the team in receiving touchdowns (9). Top heavy target share for Thomas/Nabers at 57%.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Daniels ($10,000) I do think this is a slate where you can bypass Daniels as there are several legitimate QB options on the slate. That said, Daniels is also our highest projected player in college fantasy football this week, and tough to deny the results, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in all but one game this season. This will be the best pass defense Daniels has faced to date, with Auburn ranking 18th in pass D success rate and allowing only 11 fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami vs. North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -3.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UNC 30 – Mia 26.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 27% rain / 5 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacolby George ($4,000) Don’t understand whatsoever as to why Miami receivers are so cheap. George should be in the $5k range at minimum. Top-heavy target share for Miami so all three wideouts are in play. George gets the nod as the cheapest option, yet second on the team in targets and receptions.
Fade – Backups. Condensed production at the top where you should not consider any Miami players beyond the top contributors. QB1, RB1 and RB2 and the top three WRs. Nobody else.
Bargain Bin – WR Colbie Young ($4,200) I’ll want to do a quick double-check pregame to ensure Young is healthy as he did come out of the Georgia Tech matchup a bit gimpy. If healthy, he’s way too cheap at $4.2k and we’ll go into why the outside receivers might be the preferred options below. Trio of George, Young and Restrepo combine for 69% of Miami’s target share.
Pivot Play – RB Henry Parrish ($5,700) No, I don’t think the backfield has been turned over to RB Donald Chaney Jr. ($3,900) after his 106-yard rushing performance against Georgia Tech on 24 carries. Product of how the game played out with Parrish averaging just 3.1 yards per attempt on 17 carries, as he did come out of the Temple matchup at less than 100%. I think you can mix some of both players into lineups, facing a UNC rush defense that is 99th in rush D success rate, but would favor Parrish still as the team’s lead back.
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier Restrepo ($5,900) Primetime matchup in the slot tonight between Miami’s best receiver and one of North Carolina’s best defenders. Restrepo now leads the team in receiving with 36 receptions on 43 targets after a monster performance against Georgia Tech. Three 100-yard efforts in the last four weeks. Lining up across from Restrepo will be East Tennessee State transfer Alijah Huzzie who has three interceptions this season and has allowed a reception on just 12-of-30 targets. Wouldn’t be surprised if TVD looks elsewhere on Saturday, and he’s obviously got two other very capable receivers to throw to. I’d lean towards solo plays with the Miami receivers, rather than stacking with QB Tyler Van Dyke ($6,200) despite the moderate pricing. North Carolina is allowing just 11.0 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Drake Maye ($9,600) All coming together for this UNC offense at the right time for a primetime matchup against a ranked opponent. Maye has been sizzling the last three games with multiple 400-yard performances. The Hurricanes have allowed just one quarterback to surpass 19 fantasy points this season and do rank highly in most pass defense metrics. A tad misleading when the schedule has featured Miami (Ohio), Georgia Tech, Bethune Cookman and Temple. You can play Maye naked in a lineup and not be forced to stack in with any UNC pass-catchers with the surplus of weapons at his disposal.
Fade – RB British Brooks ($4,600) I know this coaching staff absolutely loves British Brooks and the leadership he provides, but I also believe they’ve turned the page at the running back position and have fully cemented RB Omarion Hampton ($6,100) as the team’s RB1. Not the greatest matchup for Hampton either, facing a Miami defense that is No. 2 in rush D success rate and giving up 9.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Minimal exposure to Hampton and zero exposure for any UNC backups.
Bargain Bin – TE Bryson Nesbit ($4,000) Starting to see more involvement from the junior tight end with two touchdowns in the last three games. Season-highs last week for Nesbit in targets, receptions, yards, and routes run.
Pivot Play – Receivers Not Named Tez Walker. We all do it. When setting our lineups and looking for pairing options with Drake Maye, our eyes will go to Tez Walker first. And for good reason. But you can make legitimate arguments for Nate McCollum, Kobe Paysour and J.J. Jones as well. Despite the Walker hoopla against Syracuse, McCollum still went for 135 yards on a team-high seven receptions. Paysour hit the century mark too, albeit on just three targets. Paysour also played the most offensive snaps of any UNC wideout against Syracuse. Jones is probably relegated to 4th or 5th option now in the passing game, but still managed to play 68% of the offensive snaps a week ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Tez Walker ($5,500) Nobody knew what to expect last week with regards to Walker’s playing time in his first action of the season. Eight targets was not expected by me, at least. Perfect opportunity for a major “F-U” to the NCAA on primetime television to spotlight Walker. Miami is 70th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs.
Injury Notes – n/a
USC vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -2.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: ND 31.5 – USC 29
Weather: 51 degrees / 78% rain / 18 mph winds
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Tahj Washington ($6,000) or WR Brenden Rice ($6,300) Shocking to say, but I think you can have a GPP winning lineup and not have exposure to USC. If you do, I’d say Washington or Rice is the way to go as Notre Dame has struggled to defend the more talented receivers they’ve faced this season. Jordan Moore, Emeka Egbuka and Jamari Thrash all had big days, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in their matchups with the Irish. 12 of USC’s 23 passing touchdowns this season have gone to either Washington or Rice who lead the team in targets, receptions and routes run.
Fade – WR Dorian Singer ($5,200) Arguably one of the biggest cautionary tales surrounding the transfer portal usage in this day and age. Maybe Singer is perfectly content winning lot games with a gorgeous, well-proportioned girlfriend in Southern California. But his production, and potentially his NFL Draft stock has taken a significant hit this season. After topping 1,100 yards with Arizona, Singer has yet to hit 50 receiving yards in a single game in 2023 and was shut out on four targets against Arizona. I’d say Singer is the fourth option at best in the USC passing game, and that’s generous.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyron Hudson ($3,300) Hudson is one of seven USC receivers that will see the field getting rotational reps and did find the end-zone against Arizona. Don’t anticipate more than 2-3 targets, though.
Pivot Play – RB MarShawn Lloyd ($7,500) There was some concern coming out of the Arizona matchup because Lloyd wasn’t on the field during overtime. Nothing has been mentioned as far as Lloyd’s status for Saturday, so we’ll assume he’s g2g. Just do our double-checks in the pregame. As we saw last week, RBs can have success against this Irish defense with Jawhar Jordan scoring 30 fantasy points. Lloyd has taken over the USC backfield over Austin Jones with a near 4-1 advantage in rushing attempts over the last three games.
Best of the Rest – QB Caleb Williams ($10,700) Long ways until game time today as I sit here and write this DFS article. But I can hear the wind howling outside my room with rain coming down sideways. I live two hours from South Bend. Fiscally, I just don’t think it makes a ton of sense to play Caleb Williams tonight with USC’s lowest implied total of the season, facing a Notre Dame defense allowing just 12.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – WR Zachariah Branch ($5,100) Unlikely that we see the prized freshman take the field Saturday night after missing the last two games. HC Lincoln Riley stated Branch is still not a full participant in practice and is not able to do everything they’d like him too. USC has plenty of depth at receiver to withstand.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($7,900) Estime was just game-scripted out last week as Notre Dame was trailing Louisville from the jump. The Notre Dame RB1 has to be the focal point in Saturday’s matchup given the weather conditions, facing a USC defense that is allowing 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s and rank 102nd in rush D success rate and 114th in EPA per rush play defensively.
Fade – WR Tobias Merriweather ($4,000) Ya’ll know the drill by now. Wind sprints and drops are Merriweather’s specialty. Time to start distributing his reps to more productive players.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores ($3,600) Playing time has increased substantially the last few weeks for the true freshman, including last week when the Irish were at full strength with the WR corps. Seven targets in each of the last two games, though minimal production has come with it. Flores played 65% of snaps last week against Louisville.
Pivot Play – TE Mitchell Evans ($5,400) Evans has arguably been Notre Dame’s best player the last three weeks with 70 or more receptions in each game. USC’s defense has struggled mightily to defend the position, allowing four different Pac-12 tight ends to score 11 or more fantasy points against them.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($8,500) We’re seeing the effects of a pedestrian wide receiver group for Hartman as his numbers have taken a massive step back the last three games since the cupcake non-conference schedule in September. Should be a get-right opportunity against a Trojan defense allowing 23 FPPG to quarterbacks, but USC has been better than expected defending the pass, ranking 43rd in success rate. They have better athletes at defensive back than the ND receivers. This should be a ground and pound game for the Irish with a rested Audric Estime. WR Chris Tyree ($4,100) and Jayden Thomas ($5,000) are rotational pieces in multi-entry lineups if looking to stack the ND passing game a bit. As said above, though, this is a below-average wide receiver room so there is no need to pair Hartman with anyone outside of maybe Mitchell Evans.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -3
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Duke 23.5 – NC St 20.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 21% rain / 5 mph winds
NC State:
Top Play(s) – WR KC Concepcion ($6,600) The true freshman has arguably been one of the better receivers in the entire country, with multiple 100-yard receiving performances and four touchdowns in the last three weeks. Concepcion is dominating the NC State target share (27%) with a quarter of the team’s entire receiving production. Would not go heavy on exposure, though, as Duke is allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs.
Fade – WR Keyon Lesane ($4,500) If they posted his player prop at five receiving yards, I still would bet the under. Think of Lesane as NC State’s version of Tobias Merriweather.
Bargain Bin – WR Terrell Timmons Jr. ($3,700) Timmons was a preseason darling that the NC State beat writers hyped up as a potential difference maker as a sophomore. Hasn’t transpired, but we’re seeing a slight uptick in production with 122 receiving yards in the last two games. Sometimes it takes a bit for young players to get acclimated to a new offensive system, and maybe we’re seeing that with Timmons.
Pivot Play – TE Trent Pennix ($4,200) There were high hopes for Pennix from some coming into the season as OC Robert Anae has found success with moveable chess pieces at tight end in the past. Pennix was an afterthought until last week’s 99-yard, two-touchdown outburst against Marshall. Be wary, though, because Pennix failed to hit 20 receiving yards in any of the previous five games until last Saturday. Duke allowed 19 fantasy points earlier in the year to ND tight end Mitchell Evans.
Best of the Rest – QB MJ Morris ($6,800) Morris stepped up in relief of Brennan Armstrong, leading the Wolfpack to 48 points against Marshall with 265 passing yards and four touchdowns. Provided nothing on the ground and tossed three interceptions which limited his fantasy output. Not the matchup to start Morris against a Duke secondary that is allowing just 11.3 FPPG and 12th in pass D success rate. RB Delbert Mimms III ($5,400) has now found the end-zone in all but one game this season, with a season-high 65 yards on 15 carries last week against Marshall. He has an 11-3 red zone rushing attempt advantage over starting RB Michael Allen ($5,200).
Injury Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Waters ($6,400) With Duke still being a favorite on Saturday, despite the likely chance that the Blue Devils will be without their starting quarterback, we’ll side with Waters as the top play. Certainly not the greatest of individual matchups as NC State allows just 14.9 FPPG to RB1s and Waters is one of three Duke running backs that will receive carries on Saturday. But the senior back has managed to find the end-zone in all five games this season.
Fade – RB Jaylen Coleman ($3,300) Maybe the Duke staff held Coleman out with the forthcoming bye week, but he was supposed to be available against Notre Dame in Week 5 yet didn’t see a single snap. Duke football information is not readily available, so it is tough to risk even considering Coleman in this spot.
Bargain Bin – TE Nicky Dalmolin ($3,300) NC State has struggled to defend the middle of the field vs. play action, specifically tight ends, allowing 10.7 FPPG. Dalmolin has been targeted three times in four out of five games played.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Moore ($5,500) or Jalon Calhoun ($5,800) Would limit exposure here with Duke likely playing with a backup QB, but the Blue Devils have a top-heavy target share like many teams on this slate. Moore / Calhoun have accounted for all four receiving touchdowns for the Blue Devils this season and 58% of the target share. It’s a matter of if the QB1 can get them the football consistently. Would not stack them together in a lineup.
Best of the Rest – QB Henry Belin ($6,600) Why is Duke’s backup QB priced ahead of Tyler Van Dyke and Behren Morton? We have one piece of evidence this season with Belin, and it was a good showing against Lafayette, completing all eight of his passes for 118 yards and a TD. He is a capable runner looking at his high school stats, rushing for 537 yards and 11 touchdowns. I’d just be more interested if he was $5.6k instead.
Injury Notes – QB Riley Leonard ($7,200) College basketball practices have begun around the country and Duke football now has a loss on the resume, so the program goes back into obscurity in Durham. Leonard is a big enough name that we’ll hear before game time whether Leonard plays or not, but the prevailing consensus is that he’ll be unavailable.
UCLA vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: OSU -3.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: OSU 29 – UCLA 25.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 70% rain / 5 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB Carson Steele ($5,800) Started to see some separation last week in the UCLA backfield with Steele getting a 30-11 rushing attempt advantage over TJ Harden. Was that part of the Chip Kelly plan once Harden hit his four-game limit to assure he wouldn’t consider a transfer, knowing he was now second fiddle to Steele? Oregon State is a good rush defense, but not impenetrable. 102nd in rush D success rate, 67th in EPA per rush play defensively, and allowing 14 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB TJ Harden ($4,700) See above.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($4,100) 110 of Ryan’s 137 receiving yards for the season have come in the last two weeks. Oregon State has struggled to defend the position, allowing the 16th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – WR Logan Loya ($5,400) Coming into the year, I believe that the only UCLA receiver worth mentioning was WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($5,300). Seems like the Cal transfer is now the Robin to Loya’s Batman as the shifty slot receiver has been targeted nine times in each of the last two games. Outside of the Washington State game, the Beavers have limited opposing WRs to under 15 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Dante Moore ($5,900) If Fernando Mendoza can score 19 fantasy points on this defense, surely a 5-star freshman can as well. Oregon State is a slightly above average Pac-12 pass defense, ranking 48th in EPA per play and 89th in pass D success rate. At this pricing, we just need 20 points out of Moore and we’re in great shape.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon State:
Top Play(s) – QB Damien Martinez ($6,900) Heavily considering a full-team fade here despite Vegas expecting four touchdowns from the Beavers tonight. Against this UCLA defense, I think we see the Beavers lean on the running game and Oregon State’s experienced offensive line. Despite splitting carries at times with Deshaun Fenwick, the volume has been consistent with 15 or more attempts in five of the six games played. Why am I also considering a full-team fade? UCLA is allowing the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs in the country.
Fade – RB Deshaun Fenwick ($5,600) Double-digit carries in three of the last four games for Fenwick, but I simply cannot trust is volume on a week-to-week basis. Against a similarly dominant rush D in Utah, Fenwick managed just one yard on six rushing attempts. Could also win you a GPP if he gets three rushing TDs like he did previously against Washington State – and that was with a healthy Damien Martinez.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Velling ($4,300) Four or more targets for Velling in five of six games played this season, coming off a career-best three touchdowns against California. UCLA has yet to allow a tight end to score nine or more fantasy points against them.
Pivot Play – WR Silas Bolden ($5,700) or Anthony Gould ($5,700) Combined 43% target share between the two starting receivers with a third of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Would not stack the two in a lineup together. Combined FPPG average for WRs corps facing the Bruins this season is just 30.4. You need one of these receivers to hit that number Saturday to probably win a GPP.
Best of the Rest – QB DJ Uiagalelei ($8,200) I know DJU is coming off arguably his best performance of his entire collegiate career against California last week, but this UCLA defense has been dominant in P12 play, allowing just 31 points combined to Washington State and Utah. The Bruins defense most rivals conference foe Utah where DJU posted just 13 fantasy points. I think Oregon State leans on its bread and butter in this matchup which is the running game. The Bruins are allowing the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in the country.
Injury Notes – n/a
