Syracuse vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -18.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: FSU 37 – Syr 18.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($6,100) This is a below average ACC run defense for the Seminoles that ranks 100th in EPA per rush play and allows the 33rd most fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs. We saw what Will Shipley was able to do against this FSU defense in the passing game with four receptions for 38 yards and a score. Allen offers a similar floor because of his usage in the passing game, with at least three receptions in each of the last four games.
Fade – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,600) This offense is trending in the wrong direction, coming to a halt against UNC last week, managing just seven points against a bad defense. One of the lowest implied team totals on the slate on the road against the Florida State pass rush does not give off good vibes for Shrader and this offense this week. Maybe a bounce back after last week’s low point of the season? FWIW, dual-threat quarterbacks have given FSU some trouble this season – Thomas Castellanos scored 30+ fantasy points in his matchup, while ran for 80 yards on 14 carries last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Dan Villari ($3,600) Last week was a pass-heavy game script for Syracuse, down by multiple touchdowns most of the day, but for the second straight game we did see heavy involvement (for his standards) from Villari in the passing game. Minimal yardage but converted on all four of his targets. Extreme long shot play as Florida State has not allowed a tight end to score more than eight fantasy points against them.
Pivot Play – WR Damien Alford ($5,300) Worst performance of the season for Alford who saw his snaps cut in half after a bad drop against UNC. Interview with the media made it seem like Alford is ready to atone for the mistake this week and the 6-foot-6 receiver has big-play potential with a 15.7 YPC average and 14.3 aDOT. The top three Syracuse receivers of Alford, Umari Hatcher and Donovan Brown are separated by just five targets so there is really no priority of which to roster between amongst the trio.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Nobody outside of those mentioned above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($6,900) Assuming what I believe to be true, Johnny Wilson doesn’t play this week, meaning Coleman will be the solidified WR1 on Saturday. Jordan Travis is too expensive here for a 23-point projection and I’m not sure Trey Benson can be trusted week-to-week despite his 200-yard outburst. Coleman can’t be trusted either, has he’s now had a pair of weeks this season with 25 receiving yards or less, but should get a bump in value if Wilson sits.
Fade – See injury section below.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,200) Bell was very limited last week against Virginia Tech, having not practiced much over the course of the week and was limited to minimal offensive snaps during the game. One of FSU’s beat writers tweeted this week that Bell made his presence felt in practices with several receptions. Have to figure he’ll be a bigger part of the game plan Saturday if Wilson sits.
Pivot Play – RB Trey Benson ($7,200) Was last week the turning point for Benson? 200 yards and two touchdowns was quite the performance, but how replicable is it given that the yardage came on just 11 rushing attempts. Syracuse is far better at defending the run as well, allowing just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 21st in rush D success rate. Benson will be very low owned at his pricing, but game script does work in his favor with FSU being a heavy favorite.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,000) Contemplated putting Travis in the fade portion of the column because of his pricing. A 23-point projection at $9k on this slate doesn’t warrant rostering Travis but can’t outright fade a Heisman contender. The Orange had limited every QB faced to under 20 fantasy points until last week’s disaster, allowing a 40-point performance to Drake Maye. Possibly down one of Travis’ top targets doesn’t help his cause either.
Injury Notes – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,400) We currently have Wilson in the projections, but the 6-foot-6 junior was not really mentioned in any practice reports this week after not playing in the second half vs. Virginia Tech. I’d side with caution here and fade Wilson unless we get a confirmed update of him playing and 100% healthy. Probably don’t need Wilson this week as a near three-touchdown favorite.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -4.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: Cin 23.5 – ISU 19
Weather: 65 degrees / 28% rain / 11 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylin Noel ($5,100) Noel is more of a priority, if you want to call him that, on DK versus FD because of the PPR scoring settings. The junior slot receiver has hit double-digit targets in three of the last four games, though his production is limited as Noel averages just 9.2 yards per catch with an aDOT of just 7.3. His pace isn’t “that” far off from Xavier Hutchinson’s a year ago in terms of volume, but everything is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage which caps his upside.
Fade – RB Cartevious Norton ($4,500) We have Norton projected as the third-highest Iowa State running back for Saturday. I think he might be RB2 still, but this is now a rotation that includes at least three running backs getting touches. While the Cyclones have rushed for at least 150 yards as a team in each of the last two games, they’re facing a strong Cincinnati run defense that is allowing just 14.8 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden Higgins ($4,300) There is no Sauce Gardner in this Cincinnati secondary anymore that is susceptible to giving up chunk plays in the passing game. The Bearcats are allowing the 24th most fantasy points in the country to opposing receivers with four different wideouts scoring 18 or more fantasy points against them. Three of those WRs come from Miami (Ohio), BYU and Pittsburgh. Not exactly teams that air it out each week. Higgins is second on the team in targets (32) and receptions (17), with a team-high three touchdowns.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($5,300) I can’t in good conscience advise playing Rocco Becht, but this Cincy secondary is average at best, allowing 22.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s in 2023. Becht has now thrown a touchdown pass in each of his first six starts to his career, and the offensive line is giving him time to throw, having allowed just three sacks this season. You’ll need a cheap option to pair with either Michael Penix or Bo Nix.
Best of the Rest – RB Eli Sanders ($4,400) Not the matchup to play an Iowa State running back against a rush defense that is allowing just 8.3 FPPG to RB1s and 17th in rush D success rate. Sanders has assumed the RB1 job, though, for the Cyclones, and has played reasonably well by averaging nearly 5.0 YPC this season. He’s a starter and he’s cheap.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Emory Jones ($7,300) Do I ever feel confident rostering Emory Jones? No, never. But from a point per dollar standpoint, he might be the cheapest pairing option to go with Bo Nix or Michael Penix with a 24.5-point projection. This is an above average Iowa State secondary, allowing just 18.8 FPPG to quarterbacks, but we’re not interested in Jones’ arm. 100+ rushing yards for Jones in two of the last three games.
Fade – RB Myles Montgomery ($4,300) I believe the 12 carries from Myles Montgomery was just a product of the situation against BYU two weeks ago, facing a very poor Cougars’ rush defense. RB Corey Kiner ($5,200) is still dominating the volume share in the Cincy backfield (38.9%). There’s a chance Ryan Montgomery could also be back for this Saturday which would cut into Myles’ workload. As for the matchup with Iowa State, the Cyclones are 77th in fantasy points allowed to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – TE Chamon Metayer ($4,000) Metayer has always been a physical specimen, but the production never matched the appearance. It has started to the last two games with over 50 yards receiving against BYU and Oklahoma, finding the end-zone twice against the Cougars.
Pivot Play – WR Xzavier Henderson ($6,500) We have a higher projection for WR Braden Smith ($4,200) this week, but make no mistake that Henderson is the team’s top option at the position, leading the Bearcats in targets (42), receptions (29), yards (408) and routes run. Only reason we have Smith over Henderson is because of the 3-1 touchdown difference in favor of Smith.
Best of the Rest – WR Dee Wiggins ($4,300) Very little rotation at receiver for the Bearcats as the trio of Wiggins, Smith and Henderson have all played 67% or more of the offensive snaps this season. Next closest is Aaron Turner at just 20%.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -20.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Ala 33.5 – Ark 13
Weather: 70 degrees / 2% rain / 13 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,100) I’ll likely be fading Arkansas entirely given the Razorbacks have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate, but that just means they’ll be throwing a bunch as a 20-point underdog. Armstong has been, far and away, Arkansas’ best receiver this season with a team high 35 receptions on 43 targets – more than double the amount of catches of the next closest receiver.
Fade – RB Raheim Sanders ($5,700) Sounds like Rocket will be the closest to 100% that he’s been in quite some time and would technically be the ultimate pivot play of the slate, but we just can’t get there against this Alabama defense. The Tide are 11th in rush D success rate and allowing just 10.2 FPPG to RB1s.
Bargain Bin – TE Ty Washington ($4,300) In just his second game this season, Washington set career-highs against Ole Miss with seven receptions for 90 yards and two scores. I know Arkansas had freshman phenom Luke Hasz, but last week’s performance makes you wonder why Washington hadn’t played more this season. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos frequently utilizes the tight end position as seen with Washington/Hasz and Maryland this past season with CJ Dippre and Corey Dyches.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,700) Jefferson is going for some records on Saturday. Two passing touchdowns would put him tied atop the school’s all-time leaderboard. 318 passing yards would put Jefferson fifth all-time on the school’s career passing yards list. Jefferson will have his work cut out for him against a Tide secondary that is 5th in pass D success rate and allowing just 14.1 FPPG. The Razorback offense simply hasn’t performed up to expectations, and on the road at Tuscaloosa is not the place to correct those issues.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaac TeSlaa ($4,300) Second on the team in targets (31) but has seemingly hit a wall with just two receptions in the last two games. Playing time hasn’t fluctuated for TeSlaa, he’s just not converting on his opportunities. Former Bowling Green transfer WR Tyrone Broden ($3,600) saw a season-high 43 offensive snaps against Ole Miss with four targets. Arkansas might be trying to find new options in the passing game outside of Andrew Armstrong.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($8,400) Milroe is likely to see very low ownership as DFS players look to pair one of Michael Penix / Bo Nix with a sub $7k option. From a fantasy standpoint, Milroe has been solid the last two weeks, scoring 26 and 24 fantasy points against two good defenses. And last week’s 26-point performance occurred with negative points on the ground. Whether that was caused solely by Texas A&M’s defensive front or Milroe’s rumored hamstring issue, I’m not entirely sure. Arkansas is allowing 16.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s, playing well in recent weeks, allowing just 14 fantasy points last Saturday to Jaxson Dart.
Fade – WR JaCorey Brooks ($4,900) I think we can safely say that Brooks will enter the transfer portal at the conclusion of this season. Just one offensive snap against Texas A&M last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Benson ($4,300) The production wasn’t there last week, but it was season-highs for Benson last week in routes run and offensive snaps vs. A&M. Could this be a sign of the JUCO transfer being more comfortable in Alabama’s offensive system? Benson has fully secured the outside starting spot it would appear opposite Burton.
Pivot Play – WR Jermaine Burton ($6,800) After experimenting with the WR rotations in the month of September, it appears as though the Tide have narrowed it down to four wideouts, one of which being Burton who had a season-high 9-197-2 on 12 targets in the win over A&M. I’m personally hesitant to jump all the way in here on Burton and the Bama receivers, but good to see that the three all played 68% or more of the offensive snaps last week. The Arkansas secondary has been playing much better the last two weeks but did allow both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. to score 30+ fantasy points apiece. The Razorbacks are 81st in pass D explosiveness which we know is the strong suit of Burton and this passing game.
Best of the Rest – RB Jase McClellan ($6,300) Similar to Milroe, McClellan will likely see lower ownership as DFS players try to make room in their lineups for Washington / Oregon options. The Tide should have the advantage in the trenches Saturday, though Arkansas is no pushover, ranking 35th in rush D success rate. Four running backs this season have scored 14 or more fantasy points against the Razorbacks. WR Isaiah Bond ($5,700) is a strong pivot to those looking at Burton, as the sophomore slot receiver leads the team in targets (25) and receptions (19).
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: UGA -31.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UGA 44 – Vandy 12
Weather: 65 degrees / 6% rain / 11 mph winds
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – TE Brock Bowers ($7,400) Playing the hypothetical game now that Bowers is in the Heisman conversation, however unrealistic it might be as a tight end. That’s now three-straight 100-yard receiving performances, playing a horrendous Vanderbilt secondary with the bye week forthcoming. Nice opportunity to pad some stats to keep Bowers in the running. How much of that is actually part of the game plan for Georgia and Kirby Smart, we have no idea. But fun to speculate.
Fade – WR Dominic Lovett ($5,800) Fading UGA receivers is usually a profitable exercise, particularly in blowout situations. With Ladd McConkey back in the lineup, we’ve seen WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($5,100) shift to the slot more at times during games the last two weeks, which has resulted in a small dip in production for Lovett.
Bargain Bin – RB Andrew Paul ($3,400) 10 carries in the last two weeks for the former 4-star recruit. Figure we see Paul for at least a quarter if Georgia is up four touchdowns as Vegas anticipates. Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards are finally both healthy, and the staff wants to keep them that way for more important games on the horizon.
Pivot Play – WR Ladd McConkey ($5,900) McConkey was targeted just once against Kentucky, playing 19 of 62 offensive snaps as the game was out of hand in the first quarter. With Georgia’s bye week coming up, the UGA beat writer projected we see McConkey on the field more this Saturday against a soft secondary to gain confidence for the stretch run.
Best of the Rest – QB Carson Beck ($8,700) 24.6-point projection at $8.7k keeps Beck in the conversation here, facing a Vanderbilt secondary that ranks 12th in the SEC in yards allowed per game and 31st in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks. The unknown of if Georgia grounds and pounds their way to victory is the primary hesitancy with Beck.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
No thanks to Vandy running backs and whomever starts at quarterback. The only realistic option here is WR Will Sheppard ($6,000) who has caught a touchdown in five of seven games this season, now leading the Dores with 26% of the target share. WR Quincy Skinner Jr. ($4,400) played 80% of the offensive snaps last week against Florida, catching four passes on seven targets for minimal yardage. WR Jayden McGowan ($5,100) hasn’t been effective since the first month of the season and is now splitting reps in the slot.
Indiana vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -33.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UM 40 – IU 6
Weather: 52 degrees / 90% rain / 20 mph winds
Indiana:
I’ve been writing up DFS for 5-6 years now and not sure I remember there being a lower implied team total on a Main Slate…or any slate for that matter. HC Tom Allen made a change at offensive coordinator over the bye week, promoting former NIU head coach Rod Carey to play-caller, but I’m not expecting the results to be much different. This is a talent deficit issue for the Hoosiers, and the head coach is to blame for that. We don’t have an Indiana player projected at over 10 fantasy points this week, facing the best defense in the country.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Blake Corum ($8,400) Cold, windy, and rainy you say? That’s Blake Corum weather.
Fade – n/a. I might lean towards QB J.J. McCarthy ($8,100) as the fade here given the weather conditions and likely blowout scenario where having the Michigan QB1 could sink your lineup if the first few touchdowns are from running backs. From a pricing and projection perspective at 24.7 fantasy points at $8.1k, he’s still in play, but I’m personally looking elsewhere at the QB position on the slate.
Bargain Bin – RB Kalel Mullings ($3,800) I kind of tuned out the Michigan / Minnesota game last week as the outcome had been decided after the first offensive play. But if memory serves, I don’t believe we saw RB Donovan Edwards ($4,900) until the second quarter. One Michigan beat writer asked publicly on “X” (still weird) if Edwards is in the doghouse. Don’t believe that is the case, but moreso the confidence this staff has in Mullings who now has over 40 yards in three straight games. Being a 33-point favorite, I can see favoring either running back over Corum to save salary. My prediction would be that all three find the end-zone on Saturday.
Pivot Play – WR Cornelius Johnson ($5,000) We’ve spoken at length on previous slate writeups about the top-heavy target share for the Wolverines. If they’re throwing it’s usually in one of three directions between Johnson, Roman Wilson and Colston Loveland. Johnson received one of the game balls last week after bouncing back following a brutal drive-ending drop, finishing with 86 yards on four targets.
Best of the Rest – TE AJ Barner ($3,200) Homecoming game for Barner facing his old school. Seen a small uptick in targets in the last three weeks with seven of his eight receptions this season coming in that span. This is the type of coaching staff that will look to get Barner a touchdown on Saturday facing his former team.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: OSU -19.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: OSU 36 – Purd 16.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 61% rain / 10 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($7,000) I think this should be a TreVeyon day in cold, wet, windy temperatures after he sat out last week due to injury. Probably more of a GPP play as well because playing guys the game after returning from injury can always be a dicey endeavor. Purdue is 85th in rush D success rate, allowing 17.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, while Henderson was rolling prior to the injury with five rushing touchdowns in the previous three games.
Fade – RB Miyan Williams ($4,500) We hinted last week that Miyan Williams had fallen behind RB Chip Trayanum ($5,000) on the Ohio State running back depth chart and that was indeed the case with a 20-6 disparity in rushing attempts. Now added TreVeyon Henderson back into the fold and you may not see Williams on the field at all until the fourth quarter if this becomes a blowout.
Bargain Bin – WR Carnell Tate ($4,800) When asked this week about who would take Emeka Egubka’s place in the starting lineup should he not be able to play, WR coach Brian Hartline said “that’s secret.” The decision would ultimately be between the 5-star freshman Tate or WR Xavier Johnson ($4,600) with the lean towards the former whom Hartline said is ready for extended playing time if necessary. Tate was the first of the 5-star receivers to lose the black helmet stripe during spring camp and has seen the most playing time of the backup receivers, even scoring a touchdown in the Week 3 matchup with Western Kentucky.
Pivot Play – TE Cade Stover ($4,900) The senior tight end has been a major factor in all but one game this season – the blowout win over Youngstown State – with at least 50 yards receiving and is third on the team in touchdowns and receptions. Purdue allowed 20.7 fantasy points this past week to Iowa tight end Erick All.
Best of the Rest – QB Kyle McCord ($7,900) Probably not rolling with McCord here, likely down one of his best receivers, combined with the weather conditions. He needs to throw for 300 yards and three scores to hit value because of his lack of running ability, which we don’t see happening in this scenario. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,500) should obviously be peppered with targets on Saturday if Egbuka sits and would be a standalone play. WR Julian Fleming ($5,800) is what he is at this point – a mediocre former 5-star recruit that rarely impacts the game – fourth in targets (21) and zero touchdowns in 2023.
Injury Notes – WR Emeka Egbuka ($7,200) Officially questionable and a game-time decision but tea leaves point in the direction of Egbuka not being available. Sounds like this could potentially be a multi-week deal.
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – A Purdue WR. Someone will hit value here, it’s just a matter of which wideout? WR Deion Burks ($5,500) is the team leader in targets (48), yards (396), routes run and has 2/3s of the team’s receiving touchdowns this season, so he’d be the best bet of the group. WR TJ Sheffield ($4,700) had his best performance of the season last week in the loss to Iowa with 6-93-1 on 10 targets but had done very little up to that point. Another slot receiver in Malachi Corley – albeit a far better player – did score 23 fantasy points against the Buckeyes, which was the most by a receiver all season. WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($5,000) seems to have hit a wall with just over 100 yards receiving combined in the last three games.
Fade – QB Hudson Card ($5,300) QB is the position to spend up on for this week’s Main Slate, and I believe Card did not come out of last week’s game against Iowa healthy. We’re heavily on his rushing prop unders of just 5.5 rushing yards because of it. Ohio State is allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Garrett Miller ($4,100) The projected TE1 coming into the season had it not been for injury, Miller will re-assume his starting spot after it was announced that Max Klare would miss the remainder of the season due to injury. Double-digit fantasy points in each of the last two games, including a season-high 8 targets vs. Iowa last week.
Injury Notes – RB Tyrone Tracy ($5,300) We’ll need to remove Tracy from the site projections it appears as head coach Troy Walters stated this week that he’d be surprised if the converted WR plays this week. Slight increase in value for Devin Mockobee and Dylan Downing but face an Ohio State defense that has allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points in the country to running backs.
California vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -10.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Utah 27.5 – Cal 17
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
California:
The Golden Bears are projected to score at least two touchdowns according to Vegas so we cannot ignore completely, but we can absolutely condense the California player pool of options. QB1s are averaging just 13.8 FPPG against the Utes this season so we’re not starting a player in QB Fernando Mendoza ($6,100) that began the year as a third-stringer. RB Jaydn Ott ($8,200) is WAY too expensive for a running back facing a Utah defense that is 14th in success rate and has yet to allow an RB to score more than 13 fantasy points in a game.
Wide receiver is potentially where we could look if you’re intent on rostering a Cal player. Opponents know they cannot run on the Utes, so they typically take to the air with varying degrees of success. Five wideouts have scored 11 fantasy points or more vs. Utah, including last time out with Oregon State’s Silas Bolden going for 33 fantasy points. WR Jeremiah Hunter ($5,500) leads Cal in nearly every receiving category, accounting for 26% of the target share. 6-foot-4 sophomore Trond Grizzell ($4,700) has seen his playing time increase the last three games, averaging over 15 yards per reception. When healthy, Washington transfer WR Taj Davis ($4,300) has been very effective, particularly in the last two games with 14 of his 24 targets coming in that span. 6-foot-4 redshirt freshman TE Jack Endries ($4,000) is someone I’ll be keeping an eye on in the future as he spends just 30% of his snaps in-line blocking – not a lot for a tight end. 14 targets in the last three games alone.
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylon Glover ($5,500) Unfortunate that this game is in the second window because if you’re interested in rostering someone on the Utah side, you’ll have to be locked into your computer/phone and ready to pivot in an instance. The Utes were a M.A.S.H. unit but had a perfectly timed bye week to rest guys up. “Sounds” like Ja’Quinden Jackson may be able to start, but you know as well as I that we won’t get injury information out of Utah beat writers or Kyle Whittingham until 15 minutes before…if that.
Fade – Utah pass-catchers. This changes slightly if Cam Rising plays. Nate Johnson completed just 17 passes in the last two games combined and we don’t have a receiver projected over seven fantasy points this week.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Yassmin ($3,800) The coaching staff singled out Yassmin as someone they needed better play from, and he responded with 59 yards and a touchdown on four targets vs. Oregon State. Three tight ends have scored 12 fantasy points or more against Cal this season, including Jack Velling who hit 25 fantasy points vs. the Bears.
Pivot Play – QB Nate Johnson ($7,500) Another “we’ll see” if Cam Rising is a go or not for Saturday. If not, Johnson should get another start against a Cal defense that allows 21.6 FPPG to quarterbacks. It’s been a struggle the last two games for Johnson, even getting pulled against Oregon State, but Cal is nowhere near the level of an Oregon State or UCLA defensively.
Best of the Rest – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,600) Jackson is the team’s RB1 when healthy but hasn’t been 100% since the opening week against Florida. For College Fantasy, we would never recommend starting Jackson unless full clearance that he’s healthy. For DFS, particularly GPPs, that might be a risk worth taking. Cal is allowing just 14.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. How much good did the bye week do for Jackson is what I’m watching for Saturday.
Injury Notes – Utah is the Georgia of the Pacific. Laundry list of injuries that we don’t have enough time in the day to research. And would be a fruitless endeavor as it is with the lack of information coming out of Salt Lake. TBD on Jackson, Rising, Brant Kuithe and a host of others on both sides of the ball.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: KU -3
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: KU 29.5 – OSU 26.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 17 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – RB Devin Neal ($6,700) Would venture to say that Oklahoma State’s rush defense is slightly below average for B12 standards, ranking 11th in the conference in yards per game, 87th in EPA per play and allowing 17.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Only downside to Neal right now is the 50-50 ish split right now with backup Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,800) the previous two games, but tough to judge as both contests were blowouts. The 3-point spread doesn’t suggest we’ll see that Saturday. In games decided by 11 points or less this season, Neal is averaging 16 attempts per.
Fade – All KU pass-catchers. Yea, we’re cheating here, but with Jalon Daniels out of the lineup, there’s been no reason given to have any exposure to Jayhawk receivers or tight ends. Kansas has nine passing touchdowns this season, caught by seven different players. They spread the ball around, when they infrequently throw the football.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($3,900) If being forced to roster a KU pass-catcher, I’ll side with the senior tight end who is second on the team in routes run and has 10 receptions in the last four games. Oklahoma State allowed over 13 fantasy points last week to Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott.
Pivot Play – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,800) Kansas is now sixth nationally in rush play percentage (63.4%) and that number has gone up with Jason Bean at QB. This coaching staff loves Hishaw too, so while we advocate Neal above because of the tight spread in this matchup, 10+ touches for Hishaw is the expectation.
Best of the Rest – QB Jason Bean ($7,000) Recall last season when Bean came in for an injured Jalon Daniels and there was just little to no noticeable drop-off? Yeaaaa…that hasn’t been the case in 2023, completing just 50% of his passes the last two games with just 21 fantasy points combined. Middle of the road Oklahoma State secondary, ranking 55th in pass D success rate and allowing just 18.4 FPPG. Bean isn’t eliminated from contention because of how good a runner he is at the QB position, but also not someone that needs to be prioritized because of how frequently KU runs the football.
Injury Notes – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,800) Daniels has missed the last two games due to re-occurring back issues and is considered doubtful to play this week. I’d call him officially out already with the bye week upcoming.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($6,200) It was strange the way Mike Gundy would speak about Ollie Gordon in the offseason, almost as if he didn’t like his sophomore running back. Well, he does now after rushing for 250 yards combined in the last two games, one of which against the No. 1 rush defense in the B12 in Kansas State. The Jayhawks are much further down the list, ranked ninth in the conference, allowing 17.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. With the injuries at receiver and average play from the QB position, this staff smartened up and decided its best path to success is to lean on the sophomore RB.
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($7,000) Free life advice. Never start Alan Bowman on a DFS Main Slate. That’s a quick way to a painful death.
Bargain Bin – WR Rashod Owens ($3,500) Owens got the starting nod in place of the injured De’Zhaun Stribling last week (Out for the season) and capitalized on his opportunity with 5-75-0 on seven receptions. All three starting receivers played at least 79% of the offensive snaps last week, meaning very little rotation at the position. All three Oklahoma State receivers, to varying degrees, are in play.
Pivot Play – WR Jaden Bray ($4,900) If DFS players roster an Oklahoma State receiver, they’re very likely to cut costs and ride with Owens. I can’t disagree, but Jaden Bray now becomes the firm WR1 for Oklahoma State (he already was the WR1) with Stribling now OFY. Saw a team-high eight targets in the win over K-State last Friday.
Best of the Rest – WR Brennan Presley ($5,900) Don’t think it is fiscally responsible to roster Presley over Bray or Owens, not just because of pricing, but also the long-standing history of WR1s being outside receivers in the Mike Gundy offense. I’d prioritize Bray or Owens here but will say that it was notable on the telecast last week that the coaching staff mentioned getting Presley more involved in the offense. That did come to fruition as Presley was targeted seven times.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon vs. Washington
Point-Spread: UW -3
O/U Total: 66.5
Implied Score: UW 35 – Ore 32
Weather: 60 degrees / 60% rain / 6 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Bucky Irving ($7,500) Irving seemingly plays his best when the lights are the brightest. 149 yards and two scores in last year’s bowl victory over North Carolina. In this same matchup with the Huskies, Irving rushed for 146 yards on 20 carries while adding another 35 yards on five receptions. That was the most carries Irving has had in a game since joining the Ducks. Will this coaching staff lean on Irving again Saturday? Washington is a middle of the road rush defense statistically.
Fade – WR Kris Hutson ($4,200) Oregon’s third leading receiver from 2023 came back from injury in Week 3, but simply has not seen the field much over the last three games. Not sure if he’s fully healthy or not, but from a bird’s eye view, he’s been surpassed on the depth chart by better players.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,900) Cheapest realistic option for the Ducks, catching four passes in each of the last two games. In Washington’s last Pac-12 matchup, they allowed 11.1 fantasy points to Arizona tight end Tanner McLachlan.
Pivot Play – RB Jordan James ($5,800) While Bucky Irving is one of the best backs in the country, he can’t handle a 20-carry per game workload at 195 pounds. With Noah Whittington out for the season, former 4-star Jordan James has taken on a heavier workload and may have surpassed Whittington this season even if the injury had not occurred. Seven rushing touchdowns for James to lead the team, though he’s only averaging seven touches per game, so if Oregon isn’t moving the football effectively (rare), James isn’t as valuable. If you want an Oregon stack, but can’t fit Bucky in with Nix and Franklin, James is a cheaper option to do that.
Best of the Rest – QB Bo Nix ($10,000) For this price, I’d want to see a projection for Nix north of 32 fantasy points. And at just a 26.7-point projection, I’d say limit the exposure here in GPPs. The Washington secondary is actually grading out better than expected this season, ranked 44th in EPA per pass play and allowing just 14.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Best quarterback faced this season was Boise State’s Taylen Green or Arizona’s Noah Fifita, so that stat is a bit misleading too.
WR Troy Franklin ($8,100) projects very well here for a standalone play or stack option with Nix. 20 more targets this season than the next closest Duck receiver with 7 of the team’s 17 receiving touchdowns. WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($5,000) is third on the team in targets (21) but leads Oregon wideouts in routes run, so he’s on the field a lot. WR Traeshon ($4,600) has seen his production go up in recent weeks with three touchdowns in the last three games, but should be noted each of those contests were blowouts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington:
Top Play(s) – QB Michael Penix ($10,200) If selecting one of the two quarterbacks to have in my lineup, it’s probably Penix here with the higher projection and his full complement of receivers (hopefully) at his disposal. While Nix is the far better runner of the two with more ways to score, he could also be limited for fantasy production because of how good Oregon is on the ground with Irving/James. Not exactly the case for Penix and a Washington offense that is 9th nationally in pass play percentage.
Fade – WR Germie Bernard ($4,600) IF we get word that one of the Washington receivers is not able to play or less than 100%, Bernard shoots up the board as one of the top plays on the slate. The former Michigan State transfer is going to be one of the best fantasy receivers in the country in 2024. That said, at full health, he’s the fourth or fifth option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($4,000) Season-long numbers for the Ducks defending tight ends look good but have allowed both Texas Tech’s Mason Tharp and Colorado’s Michael Harrison to score 11 or more fantasy points in their matchups. Fifth on the team in targets (14) but just as many touchdown receptions as Ja’Lynn Polk and Rome Odunze this season.
Pivot Play – RB Dillon Johnson ($5,800) Probably the easiest route to getting exposure to the Washington offense because of pricing, which may make Johnson a popular play for Saturday in a high-scoring matchup where Washington is favored. Of the two teams, Oregon does have the better run defense, ranking 41st in rush D success rate and allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields in the country. I do like to provide these stats for context, but should also be noted that Oregon faced Hawaii, Colorado, and Stanford this season which are near the bottom nationally in rushing, so the numbers are skewed in Oregon’s favor.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Rome Odunze did leave the Arizona matchup in the second half due to injury but was spotted at practice this week by a Washington 247 staff writer. Neither Odunze nor Jalen McMillan was made available to the media this week, so make of that what you will. Ja’Lynn Polk has been outstanding when both Odunze/McMillan are on the field or not, with three 100-yard performances in five games. The world is your oyster here in stacking two together, mixing and matching, or having just one Washington receiver in your lineup. There must be one, though, at minimum.
Injury Notes – Just be wary of the Washington receivers and do your double-checks pregame to make sure they play.
Texas A&M vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -3.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UT 29.5 – A&M 26
Weather: 73 degrees / 30% rain / 17 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Ainias Smith ($4,900) Smith is trending upwards, due in part that he’s the only fully healthy starting A&M receiver, now with 70 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games with a team high 39 targets. Tennessee does possess a strong secondary, allowing just one receiver this season to score more than 13 fantasy points. But Smith is, by far, the most trustworthy of the Aggie options at a very reasonable price point.
Fade – RB Amari Daniels ($5,000) Same argument as last week. This is RB Le’Veon Moss’ ($5,300) job now. Minimal yardage for Moss against Alabama with 49 yards and a touchdown, but his 16-7 carry advantage over Daniels/Reuben Owens has been the norm now for the last three games. Tennessee is a middle of the road rush defense, ranking 6th in the SEC in yards allowed per game and 36th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Johnson ($3,800) The brotherly connection is definitely a thing as the sophomore tight end now has two receiving touchdowns in the last three games, including a season-high six targets vs. Alabama. Tennessee did allow 12 fantasy points to South Carolina TE Trey Knox last time out.
Pivot Play – WR Evan Stewart ($7,100) Feel like I caught a break last week betting under on Evan Stewart’s player prop after the Texas A&M beat writer tweeted out that the sophomore receiver had not been doing much in pregame warmups. While whatever injury Stewart has is hampering his production, he still managed to play 59 of 64 offensive snaps last week against Bama. We’ll stay tuned this week to see what the Aggie beat writers are saying about Stewart in pregame.
Best of the Rest – WR Moose Muhammad III ($4,700) It appears as though WR Noah Thomas ($4,800) is still not 100% all the way back from his injury against Miami in Week 2 as the sophomore receiver split snaps with Muhammad against the Tide. Thomas failed to see a target in his time on the field, with Muhammad nabbing two receptions on just three targets. I’d focus my attention on Smith or Stewart if looking for an A&M receiver. QB Max Johnson ($6,500) is cheap enough to where we can consider him, but don’t love the matchup against this Tennessee secondary allowing just 11.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylen Wright ($6,400) I’ll preface this by saying I’m really not interested in any Tennessee player for this slate despite the Vols projecting to score four touchdowns on Saturday. Joe Milton is priced too highly for a QB with a projection of just 20 fantasy points, facing an elite secondary. The Vols will have their triumvirate of running backs available so could see a division of carries. And the WR room is messy now that Bru McCoy is out for the season. Wright gets the nod for me as the best rusher on the team that is favored and at home. A&M is only allowing 8 fantasy points to opposing RBs – again, speaking to my point that I don’t feel the need to roster any UT players in my lineups.
Fade – RB Dylan Sampson ($5,800) I’m going to disagree right now with our projection that has Sampson as the second-highest projected Tennessee RB. Much of his production this season has come in garbage time when the Vols are leading. With a tight spread, I’d suspect Tennessee to lean on their vets in Wright and Small.
Bargain Bin – WR Kaleb Webb ($3,700) The former 4-star recruit will likely get the starting nod in place of Bru McCoy who will miss the remainder of the season. Webb came on in relief against South Carolina, playing 30 of 74 offensive snaps, though wasn’t targeted a single time. Webb did score a touchdown on five targets in the blowout win over UTSA.
Pivot Play – WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. ($4,300) Has been a bust to this point compared to the hype the former Oregon transfer received in the offseason. But a spot opens up in the starting lineup with Bru McCoy out for the season. HC Josh Heupel has been coy about how the WR rotation will shake out with McCoy no longer around, but Thornton has inside/outside versatility at 6-foot-4. Webb likely gets the start as alluded to above, but maybe we get a surprise with Thornton not sharing time with Squirrel White in the slot. Notable that last season, with Cedric Tillman and McCoy injury, that Heupel did move Hyatt outside against Vanderbilt. Maybe we see the same with Thornton.
Best of the Rest – WR Squirrel White ($6,000) I think this will be a gameday decision to make if we get word that Thornton is working with the outside receivers in pregame. If that is not the case, our interest decreases in Squirrel. But we saw against South Carolina what White is capable of when he has the slot receiver role all to himself, finishing with nine receptions on nine targets with a TD – easily his best game of the season. WR Ramel Keyton ($6,000) has found the end-zone three times in the last four games, and I’d suspect we see Milton lean on his veterans following the Bru injury. This was an elite A&M secondary statistically but have been burned by speedy outside receivers this year as both Jermaine Burton and Jacolby George have hit the 30-point fantasy mark against the Aggies. Just a 20-point projection for QB Joe Milton ($8,800) facing an A&M defense that has allowed just two quarterbacks to score more than 10 fantasy points against them. More a product of the schedule than having an elite defense, but still top third in the country.
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -13.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: MD 32.5 – Illini 18.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 84% rain / 9 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Williams ($5,500) There may not be a player with a higher fantasy floor than Williams who has hit double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, leading the Illini with 38 receptions and 29% of the team’s target share. Amazing he still has not found the end-zone yet this season. Maryland is allowing the 34th most fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs, with two of the three highest scoring wideouts against the Terps this season have been slot receivers like Williams.
Fade – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,200) Altmyer will pop as a potential option in some optimals because of his pricing, but what has he done in the last two weeks to warrant any consideration with 28 combined fantasy points against two middling B1G opponents. Now goes on the road against a defense that hadn’t allowed a QB to score more than 14 fantasy points in a game until last week with Kyle McCord.
Bargain Bin – RB Kaden Feagin ($4,500) The 4-star true freshman is likely to make his first career start on Saturday with Reggie Love on the shelf and RB2 Josh McCray now out for the season. The question becomes if Feagin can have success against the Maryland front, because we all saw the abject disaster that the Illini running game was last week against Nebraska. Maryland is only allowing 11.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s so I’d limit exposure to Feagin, but I’m expecting 15+ touches for the true freshman on Saturday. Worth $4.5k?
Pivot Play – WR Casey Washington ($4,000) Second on the team in routes run and third in targets (26), seeing a season-high seven targets last week against Nebraska. His 0.92 yards per route run displays that he’s the weak link of the starting WR trio for the Illini, but is on the field a bunch, and should have a positive game script as a two-TD underdog.
Best of the Rest – WR Pat Bryant ($5,100) After a brutal drop against Purdue, the Illini coaching staff dialed up the exact same play against Nebraska and Bryant atoned for his mistake with a 46-yard touchdown, giving him two scores in the last two weeks. Notable for me that Bryant’s snap counts did drop slightly as he shared time with promising freshman WR Ashton Hollins ($3,000). When you only managed a touchdown against Nebraska and are 2-4 on the season, expect to see more freshmen involvement for the struggling offense.
Injury Notes – RB Reggie Love ($4,900) Bret Bielema did not sound optimistic regarding Love’s status for Saturday, stating they’re “not ruling him out, but might need a little bit of time.”
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($8,200) Targets are dispersed evenly among 4-5 Maryland pass-catchers and who knows which RB will be the coaching staff’s preferred choice for the given week, so the top play for the Terps will usually be the orchestrator of the offense in Baby Tua. 24.7-point projection at $8.2k is perfectly reasonable for a Main Slate QB option. The matchup with the Illini secondary is fine, as Illinois allows 20 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 86th in pass D success rate. Tagovailoa won’t win you a GPP unless this game shoots out (unlikely) but he won’t sink your lineup either.
Fade – WR Tyrese Chambers ($4,000) Maryland’s top three at receiver has been solidified in the first six weeks of the season, and the former FIU transfer is not part of the top group. Chambers played just 19 snaps vs. Ohio State, seeing just two targets.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($3,900) Fourth on the team in routes run and targets (27) with an 85.2% catch rate. Both Penn State’s Tyler Warren and Purdue’s Garrett Miller scored 11 fantasy points or more in their matchups with the Illini.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($6,500) I’ve got a personal rule that I simply won’t roster Hemby in any lineup just because I’ve been burned too many times over the last few seasons, but this is as good a matchup as he’ll get the rest of the season. Illinois ranks dead last in the B1G in yards allowed per game on the ground and are giving up the 29th most fantasy points in the country to opposing RBs. But just as we saw last week, this staff displays zero consistency with its running back rotations and will simply ride the hot hand between Hemby and backup RB Antwain Littleton ($4,800).
Best of the Rest – WRs. Pick your poison between Tai Felton, Jeshaun Jones, or Kaden Prather, limiting to just one in your lineup and not multiple Terp receivers. Crazy how you look at the numbers and there’s truly minimal differences between the three to distinguish who is a better play over the other. Two of the three highest fantasy producing wideouts against Illinois have been slot receivers, so maybe prioritize Jones over the others as he plays 81.2% of his reps inside.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wis -10
O/U Total: 34.5
Implied Score: Wis 22 – Iowa 12
Weather: 51 degrees / 29% rain / 17 mph winds
Iowa:
Why are we subjected to this game on the Main slate? I’ll look at the bright side in that this saves a boatload of time for research purposes. We’re only focused on two Iowa options in RB Kaleb Johnson ($5,500) and TE Erick All ($4,300) and need to determine how good of a play each might be. Strong performance in Johnson’s first game back from injury, rushing for 134 yards on 17 attempts vs. Purdue. Stingier test this week, on the road, against a Wisconsin defense that allows just 13.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and ranks ahead of the Boilermakers by nearly every rush defensive metric. Not impenetrable, though, as four running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Badgers, including two G5 runners and a converted WR (Tyrone Tracy). I’d have low exposure to Johnson but can’t rule him out at this price. All was one of two Iowa players to catch a pass last week against Purdue, while accounting for 50% of the team’s receptions.
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($8,300) Allen being Wisconsin’s top option is obvious, its just a matter of how good an option. As anticipated, we did see the backfield split we’ve seen from the Badgers all year long despite Chez Mellusi being out for the season, so don’t expect 30 touches on Saturday. Iowa ranks inside the top third nationally in most rush defense metrics and is allowing just 10.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. I’d say limit the exposure here if looking to roster Allen.
Fade – TE Hayden Rucci ($3,700) I’m invested in Rucci’s prop unders of 1.5 receptions and 14 receiving yards. That should tell you my interest level here. OC Phil Longo rarely incorporates tight ends in his offensive scheme.
Bargain Bin – WR Will Pauling ($4,600) Despite playing the fourth most snaps last week among Wisconsin receivers, Pauling accounted for a season-high eight receptions on 11 targets. We’ve spoken ad nauseum about slot receivers in Longo’s offense, but is this a sign of bigger things to come for Pauling in the second half of the year? I’ll say this – slot receivers have DOMINATED Iowa this season. Utah State’s Terrell Vaughn, Purdue’s TJ Sheffield and Iowa State’s Jaylin Noel combined for 62 fantasy points in their matchups with the Hawkeyes.
Pivot Play – RB Jackson Acker ($4,000) Acker performed well against Rutgers last week, rushing for 65 yards on 13 carries in his most extended action of his collegiate career to date. Most notable is that his workload was very reflective of what Chez Mellusi was getting earlier in the year prior to the injury…which is also reflective of RB2s in Longo’s system. Longshot play, but assuming Vegas is correct in that Wisconsin will be up double figures at some point Saturday, Acker could see double-digit touches.
Best of the Rest – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,500) Just no real interest here in Mordecai with the low game total, with a lack of possessions expected from two slow-paced teams, facing a pass D that is allowing just 13.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Injury Notes – n/a
