Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison
Point-Spread: JMU -9.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: JMU 36 – CC 26.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Ethan Vasko ($7,100) This is a committee backfield and the leading wide receiver for Coastal has just 18% of the target share so having a wide receiver or running back from the Chants isn’t a necessity. Vasko is the centerpiece of the CCU offense with over 1,200 total yards of offense and almost 50% of the team’s total touchdowns. James Madison’s strength on defense is against the pass, allowing just 13.4 FPPG to quarterbacks, but haven’t faced the stiffest of competition this season. Against Jacolby Criswell – similar talent level to Vasko – scored 28 fantasy points in his matchup with JMU.
Fade – RB Simeon Price ($4,600) Not sure why Coastal keeps trotting out Simeon Price over Braydon Bennett and Christian Washington. The Miss St. transfer is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry in three games while every other Coastal running back on the roster essentially is averaging over five yards per attempt.
Bargain Bin – WR Cameron Wright ($3,400) We’ll have to check why Wright only played 38% of snaps last week vs. Old Dominion because that was a season-low despite 148 receiving yards with a touchdown in the win. The 6-foot-4 Memphis transfer is second on the team in targets (21) and routes run.
Pivot Play – RB Braydon Bennett ($5,000) over Christian Washington ($4,100) Washington holds the edge in most statistical categories over Bennett, but a lot of which due to playing in two more games. In the two games that Bennett was fully healthy, though, he was on the field about 10% more than Washington. This is a 3-way split backfield against a solid run defense, so no need to have any CCU running back in a lineup, but that could end up being a slight edge.
Best of the Rest – WR Jameson Tucker ($5,100) Third on the team lead with 15 targets and first in routes run. Five receivers have scored more than 13 fantasy points vs. James Madison this season, and average around 25% above their seasonal PPG when facing the Dukes. WR Tray Taylor ($4,400) is tied with Wright for the team lead in targets (21) but played just 44% of the snaps vs. Old Dominion. Not sure why both Senika McKie and Malick Meiga were on the field more last Saturday. This could be a week for either TE Cane Berrong ($3,300) or Kendall Karr ($3,500) to have a big week. Berrong was targeted four times last week with a touchdown. JMU has allowed three tight ends already to score 15 or more fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes –
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – QB Alonza Barnett III ($9,200) No. 1 QB on the slate and for good reason, now with 140 fantasy points scored over the last three games. The only clunker that Barnett had this season was scoring just 7 fantasy points in a game vs. Gardner-Webb where the entire JMU offense was sleepwalking. Coastal actually ranks 22nd in pass D success rate, but just allowed 32 fantasy points last week to a QB making his first-career start.
Fade – WR Taji Hudson ($4,700) and WR Brionne Penny ($4,500) Penny has seen his playing time decrease with every passing week, playing just two snaps last week vs. ULM. Hudson was fourth among wide receivers last week, on the field just 20% of the time and was not targeted once.
Bargain Bin – TE Taylor Thompson ($3,500) Thompson should be at least $1k more with the production he’s had this season, ranked second on the team in targets (25), tied for first in receptions (17) and fourth in routes run. Uptick in production the last two games with a combined 16 targets in that span. WR Yamir Knight ($3,000) is also inexplicably mispriced at min salary, with 17 targets over the last three weeks, and third on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – RB George Pettaway ($5,900) Juicy matchup for the North Carolina transfer who got the bulk of the carries last week vs. ULM, rushing for 62 yards on 13 attempts. Coastal has allowed five running backs to score over 14 fantasy points against them and are 121st in rush D success rate and 11th out of 14 Sun Belt teams in yards allowed on the ground.
Best of the Rest – WR Omarion Dollison ($4,900) or WR Cam Ross ($5,000) Dollison, Ross and Yamir Knight are the priorities at wide receiver. Five wide receivers have scored at least 16 fantasy points this season vs. CCU and are scoring around 26% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Chants.
Injury Notes – RB Ayo Adeyi ($5,500) No official game week depth chart from JMU as of Monday writing this. The North Texas transfer did not play last week and was not listed, so we should have a good indication of his status once that is released.
Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech
Point-Spread: LT -4.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: LT 27.5 – MTSU 23
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Omari Kelly ($5,400) Kelly has the most slate-breaking ability of any wide receiver playing on Thursday, with 26 targets combined over the last three games, including a 54-point fantasy performance against Western Kentucky in Week 3. Just one receiver has scored over 15 fantasy points against the Louisiana Tech defense which is legit.
Fade – RBs. Split backfield between Terry Wilkins and Jaiden Credle, and we don’t officially know the status of Frank Peasant who did not play in Week 5 vs. Memphis. Louisiana Tech is allowing just a combined 23 FPPG to opposing backfields and rank 15th in rush D success rate. Middle Tennessee ‘should’ struggle to run the ball.
Bargain Bin – WR Myles Butler ($3,000) Third on the team in receiving yards and routes run, playing over 65% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – TE Holden Willis ($6,600) Willis is what we in fantasy circles like to call a TEITO, meaning “Tight End in Title Only” dubbed by the infamous CFB Prop King Eric Froton. Willis is second in targets, (32), receptions (21) and routes run, playing 50% of his snaps in the slot and only 36% inline as a conventional tight end.
Best of the Rest – QB Nicholas Vattiato ($6,700) Vattiato hasn’t lived up to expectations with just five touchdowns and four interceptions in five games. Potential for him to hit value as MTSU is a surprising 4.5-point underdog with a pass-happy game script, but this isn’t the defense to try and “get right” on. Louisiana Tech is giving up just 14.1 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and 15th nationally in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – RB Frank Peasant ($5,300) Questionable with an undisclosed injury. Peasant is not listed on the two-deep so we’ll assume he’s out.
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Tru Edwards ($5,200) We here at the CFFSite like fantasy points being scored, obviously, so forgive me if I haven’t paid any attention to Louisiana Tech this season as the Bulldogs have yet to score 25 points in a game so far this season. HC Sonny Cumbie, an offensive-minded coach, has already given up play-calling duties, and another losing season likely results in a change at the top. We’ll lean Edwards here as La Tech’s top play as he leads the team in every receiving category.
Fade – QB Evan Bullock ($6,000) When the best thing you can say about a quarterback is that he hasn’t turned the ball over, that’s not someone we’re interested in for DFS purposes. The La Tech QB situation ranks lower than Cade McConnell, as the competition between Bullock and Jack Turner seems to be ongoing still.
Bargain Bin – TE Eli Finley ($3,100) Finley is second on the team in routes run, with nine receptions on 11 targets. Only an option because of how poorly MTSU has defended the tight end position, allowing 16.4 FPPG. Five different tight ends have scored at least seven fantasy points vs. the Blue Raiders, with Duke’s Nicky Dalmolin posting 100+ yards and two scores in his matchup.
Pivot Play – RB Donerio Davenport ($4,000) Tough to rationalize playing a running back in a three-way backfield on a team that ranks 129th nationally in yards per game on the ground. But the Middle Tennessee run defense is that bad, allowing 41 FPPG to opposing backfields and 122nd in rush D success rate. Davenport feels like the RB1 right now ahead of Marquis Crosby and Omiri Wiggins.
Best of the Rest – WR Marlion Jackson ($3,000) Strange pricing for a receiver that is second on the team in targets, coming off a season-high 63% of snaps played vs. FIU in Week 5.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTEP vs. Western Kentucky
Point-Spread: WKU -19.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: WKU 39 – UTEP 19.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – WR Kam Thomas ($5,600) Team leader in targets (44), receptions (31) and routes run. UTEP is 17th nationally in pass play percentage with three good options at receiver, so at least one should be in your lineups.
Fade – RB Jevon Jackson ($5,400) Jackson potentially lost his job last week vs. Sam Houston State, tallying just a season-low four carries. Freshman RB Ezell Jolly ($4,200) made his season debut with 76 yards on 17 attempts, with head coach Scotty Walden saying this week that it was “the most progress” he’s seen from the run game and the offensive line this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Trey Goodman ($3,200) Too cheap for a player that averages five targets per game. UTEP does not rotate at receiver, even if Jaden Smith doesn’t play as we saw last week.
Pivot Play – QB Cade McConnell ($5,800) Not rushing to add McConnell to my DFS lineups for Thursday, but the WKU pass defense is really bad. 115th in pass D success rate, allowing 31 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. If you’re playing McConnell, you’d preferably want two wide receivers and some WKU players in hopes of a shootout.
Best of the Rest – WR Kenny Odom ($6,000) Second on the team in targets (29) but a team-high three receiving touchdowns, hence why he’s priced as such. Two highest scoring receivers to face Western Kentucky have both played on the outside where Odom is 86% of the time. Middle Tennessee’s Omari Kelly and Alabama’s Ryan Williams combined to score 78 points against this secondary.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Smith ($4,500) Smith is still listed on the game-week depth chart, but did not play a single snap last week.
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Elijah Young ($6,400) Just as we saw last week against Sam Houston State, the Miners are giving up a boatload of points to opposing running backs this season, ranked 112th nationally in rush D success rate. Already three running backs have scored over 28 fantasy points vs. UTEP this season. Unlike year’s past, we’re not seeing much of a rotation in the WKU backfield. The former Missouri transfer is also an adept pass-catcher, ranking second on the team with 24 targets.
Fade – RB LT Sanders ($4,800) Unsure as to why Sanders did not play vs. Boston College, but there is a 63-15 rushing attempt gap between he and Elijah Young. Sanders is only an option if you’re stacking WKU in hopes of a Hilltopper blowout.
Bargain Bin – TE River Helms ($3,400) Helms is fourth on the team in targets (23) and second in routes run behind only Kisean Johnson. Tight ends are only averaging 4.9 FPPG against UTEP this season but haven’t been many teams on their schedule that utilize the position.
Pivot Play – WR Dalvin Smith ($5,300) Smith’s box score numbers don’t jump off the page, but the senior wideout played 94% of the offensive snaps against Boston College in Week 5, catching three passes on four targets. Smith was only on the field about 35% of the time in the first four games.
Best of the Rest – QB Caden Veltkamp ($7,900) We’ll say this about Veltkamp – I don’t think you can have him and Elijah Young together in a lineup. Either WKU will run all over the Miners like previous teams have done so far, or this becomes a shootout. For as bad defensively as UTEP is, they haven’t allowed a QB to score more than 20 fantasy points all year. Obviously, because they’re so bad defending the run. WR Kisean Johnson ($6,900) Undisputed WR1 for the Hilltoppers leading the team in every receiving category, with four touchdowns in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
