Middle Tennessee @ Connecticut
Point-Spread: MTSU -15.5
O/U Total: 56
Weather: 60 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
Has there been a game on any CFB slate this season that’s been less interesting than this one? Chase Cunningham’s five touchdown performance against Charlotte after taking over the full-time starting duties was clearly an outlier because he hasn’t played well the last two games. You shouldn’t be completing under 55 percent of your passes when all you’re doing is dinking and dunking the football within 10 yards of the LOS. Opposing QBs are only averaging 24.8 FPPG against UConn this season, but that’s due in part to starters not playing a full 60 minutes against the Huskies where three of the first four losses this year were by 30 points or more. Connecticut has shown improvement over the last month, falling by two to both Wyoming and Vanderbilt, and allowing just four passing TDs in that span. I won’t be prioritizing Cunningham in any lineups, but there’s a few reasons that make him slightly appealing. (1) Middle Tennessee can’t run the ball AT ALL. (2) 35 implied point total. If we are getting five TDs, good chance majority are coming via the pass. (3) Albeit the favorite, MTSU struggles out of the gate, trailing after the first quarter in all four losses this season. Another slow start on the road could mean a higher volume for Cunningham.
I’ll give Chaton Mobley a mention here considering UConn is the 116th ranked rush defense in the country, and the senior running back did rush for over 100 yards in the win against Marshall two weeks ago. MTSU ran for 209 yards that day as a team which accounted for 40 percent of their entire rushing totals for the season, and have failed to rush for more than 100 yards in four of the six games played. UConn is 129th in TOP this season where the defense is on the field around 35 minutes per game. Maybe works in favor of Mobley?
The Raiders use seven different receivers extensively in the offense, seeing between 35 to 65 percent of the snap share on the season. Listed starters on the game-week depth chart are Jarrin Pierce, Jimmy Marshall, Jaylin Lane and CJ Windham, but would only consider Pierce/Marshall are true viable options. Lane has just three targets in the last two games, giving way to more playing time for DJ England-Chisolm. Windham did tie a season-high six targets against Liberty in Week 6 but was invisible the two weeks prior. Slot receiver Yusuf Ali is Cunningham’s safety value around the LOS, with an aDOT of just 6.4, and has at least three receptions in the last three games played. Order of preference is Pierce->Marshall->Ali->Windham->Lane->Chisolm.
Connecticut
We can skip right on over UConn quarterbacks. Middle Tennessee is tied for third in the country in turnovers forced this season and Steven Krajewski is very much prone to throwing interceptions. Sophomore Nate Carter has taken over the Huskies’ backfield over Kevin Mensah, averaging 18 carries per game over the last month, but was limited to under three yards a carry last week against Yale. Middle Tennessee ranks 97th in the country against the run, are just 63rd in Rush Play Success Rate defensively and No. 2 in Stuff Rate. Carter’s ability coming out of the backfield as a pass-catcher is what differentiates him over Mensah, with 11 receptions on 18 targets. The Huskies’ trio are starting receivers in Keelan Marion, Kevens Clercius and Aaron Turner dominated the snap counts against Yale, on the field 85 percent of the time, and accounted for 16 of the 17 targets that went to UConn receivers. That’s reflective of the last three games Connecticut has played. Marion has found the end-zone in each of the last three weeks and one of the highest aDOTs on the team at 16.6. Starting TE Jay Rose is still not listed on the depth chart, means another FR in Brandon Niemenski will get the nod Friday. Had a season-high 4-53-0 on six targets vs. Yale.
Memphis @ UCF
Point-Spread: Mem -1.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Weather: 77 degrees / 12% rain / 6 mph winds
Memphis:
Seth Henigan wasn’t needed last week against Navy, completing just eight passes on 12 attempts, but still managed to throw for 215 yards and two scores against Navy. I want to say we’ll see Henigan get closer to his season average of 32.4 att/g against UCF with the line sitting at -1.5 in favor of the Tigers, but teams have been gashing the Knights left, right and up the gut on the ground of late. Remember those first few weeks when UCF was the No. 1 rated run defense? They’re now 95th in the country, allowing over 300 yards rushing in two of the last three games with nine touchdowns coming via the ground. The fumbling issues have subsided the past two games for running back Brandon Thomas who topped 15 carries the last two weeks with three rushing scores. We saw Marquavius Weaver and Kylan Watkins in the mix against Navy, but in competitive contests, we’ve seen Thomas dominate the volume in the Memphis backfield. Thomas’ 18 carries vs. Tulsa in Week 6 with no other RB topping five attempts is reflective of what we’ve seen this year from the Tigers’ backfield. UCF is now allowing 20.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the season and are 97th in Rush Play Success Rate.
Calvin Austin III remains a lock in fantasy lineups, leading the country in receiving yards and has topped the century mark in five of seven games played. Will be interesting to see if the staff draws up any more running plays for Austin as he had a 69-yard TD run on a reverse against Navy – his first rushing attempt of the season. Tight end Sean Dykes didn’t play much last week and was targeted just one time, but found the end-zone for the third straight game. UCF has struggled containing tight ends this season in the passing game, allowing 10.5 FPPG on the year. Those two account for 511 percent of the target share and 13 of the 16 receiving touchdowns for the Tigers this year, so really don’t need to look elsewhere in the passing game. WR2 Javon Ivory sits third on the team in targets (29). WR3 Eddie Lewis had his best game since arriving at Memphis with three receptions for 92 yards and a TD. 11 of his 17 targets this season have come in the last two games as the coaching staff is seeking more options in the passing game aside from Austin/Dykes.
UCF:
This Memphis secondary is no good, and have allowed some monster performances this season – 38+ fantasy points to both James Blackman and D’Wan Mathis – neither of which are better than average quarterbacks. On the year, Memphis is 96th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate and giving up 28 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Problem is Mikey Keene has not shown the ability yet to take advantage of suspect defenses, completing just 61 percent of his passes with three touchdowns in three starts since taking over for Dillon Gabriel. Projected under 15 fantasy points this week as he does not provide anything on the ground with -5 rushing yards. Backup Joey Gatewood comes in on rushing downs in the Wildcat, further decreasing Keene’s value. Doesn’t sound as though WR1 Jaylon Robinson has a chance at returning any time soon, so we’re looking at primarily Ryan O’Keefe and Brandon Johnson at receiver, who account for 46 percent of the target share for the season. WR3 Amari Johnson has filled in during Robinson’s absence and does have nine receptions on 10 targets in the previous two weeks. Nate Craig-Myers continues to see a heavy dosage of snaps on the field (58-of-69 snaps against Cincinnati) but much like his collegiate career, has been mostly invisible. He’ll almost certainly find the end-zone this week now that I said that.
Isaiah Bowser returned last week vs. Cincy, but split snaps/carries with Johnny Richardson. Gus Malzahn mentioned this week that Bowser is at around 80 percent health and getting better each day. No way of us knowing what’s true or being embellished, so I’d proceed with caution here if thinking that Bowser will get a full workload like he saw at the beginning of the season. Richardson continues to be a weapon coming out of the backfield with at least 30 yards receiving in the last three games. Memphis is allowing 34 FPPG to opposing backfields this season and are 75th in Rush Play Success Rate.
Colorado State @ Utah State
Point-Spread: CSU -3.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Weather: 54 degrees / 2% rain / 9 mph winds
Colorado State:
Todd Centeio has performed well the last two games, completing 83 percent of his throws with 269 total yards against a solid San Jose State defense in Week 6, followed by over 320 total yards of offense in a blowout win over New Mexico last Saturday. Currently have Centeio projected at 20.4 fantasy points for Friday which would be more than any total he’s hit in the last four games, but this is a Utah State defense he should find success against, allowing 440 yards per contest. The Aggies are only allowing 19.9 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season, but Centeio’s running ability provides added value as he’s averaging 11 att/g. TBD on which options will be available to Centeio in the passing game with Dante Wright still dealing with a nagging injury. Saw just one snap vs. San Jose State, and despite Steve Addazio saying Wright will be more involved against New Mexico, the star receiver didn’t see the field at all. Probably more precaution with the game being a blowout. In Wright’s absence, Ty McClulloch as stepped up as the go-to receiver with four targets in the last three games and has provided a field-stretching element that the Rams previously lacked. Had a 60-yard TD vs. San Jose State and a 41-yard reception against New Mexico. We currently don’t have a receiver projected at more than six points this week so would tread very lightly there in terms of exposure.
TE1 Trey McBride continues to be a target hog for the Rams, accounting for a whopping 39 percent of the team share and at least six receptions in every game this season. David Bailey was also dealing with injuries leading up to last week, but saw a heavy workload with 58 yards and two scores on 21 carries. Saturday’s matchup will be a test of weaknesses as Colorado State is 113th in Rush Play Success Rate and 81st in Line Yards, taking on the worst run defense in the MWC, with the Aggies allowing over 206 yards per game on the ground. Our 22.6 fantasy point projection feels really high to me, but Bailey has seen 15 or more carries in every game he’s been healthy for.
Utah State:
It was a poor effort from the Utah State running game last week against UNLV, averaging just 3.0 YPC as a team, with leading rusher Calvin Tyler Jr. accumulating just 54 yards on 18 attempts. We saw four different running backs with five or more carries for Utah State last week, but the former Oregon State transfer continues to dominate the volume share in the Aggies backfield (43%). Outside of that, not the best of matchups for Tyler against a Colorado State defense that is third in the MWC, allowing just 97 yards per game on the ground and just 9.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. In terms of run blocking, the Aggies offensive line can’t match up, ranking 107th in Line Yards and 109th in Stuff Rate. In pass pro, Utah State’s line can hold up, but will face a Rams front that sacked New Mexico State QBs six times last week, and Logan Bonner is not mobile. Colorado State is third in the MWC in pass defense, allowing 188 YPG through the air and are second nationally in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. For complete context, though, the list of QBs from Vanderbilt, Toledo, Iowa, New Mexico and others is not impressive so it makes sense as to why CSU ranks so highly in those categories. Still a difficult matchup for Bonner when you consider how the CSU defense is performing of late, both defending the pass and getting after the opposing QB. Of the 31 total team targets vs. UNLV, 16 went to Deven Thompkins which was the fifth time in six games that the WR1 saw double-digit targets this year. Of the remaining Utah State receivers, we do have Brandon Bowling projected at 14.0 fantasy points this week, but his production has fallen off the last three weeks – nine receptions on 20 total targets and zero scores. Saw a season-low 34 snaps against UNLV. Outside receivers Derek Wright and Justin McGriff are mainstays in the rotation, with Wright seeing 17 targets in the last two games alone.
Washington @ Arizona
Point-Spread: UW -18
O/U Total: 46.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Washington:
We’re only interested in Washington players because of the matchup against the worst scoring defense in the Pac-12. Allowing 25.5 fantasy points to Colorado QB Brendon Lewis, which Arizona did last week, should be cause for relegation to the Mountain West. The Wildcats are allowing 27.4 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but a lot of the production has come on the ground from the likes of Lewis, Jaren Hall, Anthony Brown, etc. Against the pass, Arizona is actually second in the Pac-12, allowing just 170 YPG through the air and are 38th in Pass Play Success Rate defensively. Not saying fade Dylan Morris here as our highest-projected Washington player this week, but it’s not as if he’s been lighting the world on fire either with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. Richard Newton did play four snaps last week as he returns from injury but did not see a single carry against UCLA. Sean McGrew led the way once again with 18 attempts vs. the Bruins, though predictably struggled against a top notch rush defense. Washington’s experienced offensive line has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season for the Huskies, ranking 78th in Line Yards. Wouldn’t discount Kamari Pleasant seeing more carries as his snap counts have increased the last two games, averaging over seven yards a carry in that span. With everyone healthy, we saw Washington at full strength with their pass-catchers as receivers Rome Odunze, Terrell Bynum and Jalen McMillan accounted for 18 of the 20 targets that went to Husky receivers against UCLA. Just 1.4 fantasy points separates the three in our projections. Cade Otton was back in the lineup on Saturday and is priced way down at $4k on DraftKings. Arizona has struggled containing tight ends at times this season, allowing a combined 39 fantasy points to Greg Dulcich and Daniel Bellinger.
Arizona:
Implied total of 14.25 means we are staying away from the Wildcats here for the most part. Will Plummer will get the nod at quarterback and is the only available scholarship option on the roster for Friday so he’ll see 100 percent of the snaps if healthy. Has already fumbled three times in minimal opportunities this season, but showed last year that he can move a bit with 139 rushing yards on 14 carries. We’re simply not starting a third-string QB against a Washington defense that is allowing just 19 FPPG to opposing QBs. The Arizona 247 beat writer stated that he expects freshman Jalen John to see more opportunities this week after rushing for 71 yards on 11 carries vs. Colorado. Drake Anderson is questionable, and Michael Wiley has been mostly ineffective this season, averaging just 3.2 YPC. He does provide some value in the passing game with seven receptions on eight targets in the last two weeks. Washington sits 10th in the Pac-12 against the run, and have allowed over 230 yards rushing in each of the last two games. Not rostering any Arizona back, but would take a shot on John here if choosing anyone. WR1 Stanley Berryhill is yet another target hog on this slate, accounting for over 30 percent of the team share, and has had at least five receptions in every game this season. Brian Casteel, Tayvian Cunningham, Jamarye Joiner and Boobie Curry are the other names of note, but not worth the risk in this matchup with a Huskies’ secondary that is 10th in Pass Play Success Rate and 6th in PFF coverage grades.