Georgia Tech @ Virginia
Point-Spread: UVA -6.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Jeff Sims and Jahmyr Gibbs popped for me when looking at the projections this week. Biggest cause for concern for me with Gibbs is the offensive line that has dealt with a number of injuries, and the results have been inconsistent as a result. 118th in Rush Play Success Rate and 88th in Line Yards. Maybe Gibbs doesn’t get things going on the ground, but can make up for it as a pass-catcher with 207 receiving yards in the last two games with nine targets in that span. Has had at least two receptions in every game this season. Virginia is dead last in the ACC at 188 YPG allowed on the ground, and giving up 20.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s. That also works in the favor of Sims who has four rushing TDs since being re-instituted as the starting quarterback. Still an enigma as a thrower, completing 63 percent of his passes with six TDs in the last three games, but still is turning the ball over at a high rate. UVA is a middle-of-the-road pass defense, allowing 26.1 FPPG to opposing QBs, and are 93rd in Pass Play Success Rate. Have forced just four interceptions this season which helps the cause for Sims. Kyric McGowan and Malachi Carter as the safest options at WR, tied for the team lead with 30 targets a pieice. McGowan sits atop the leaderboard with four receiving touchdowns. Aside from those two, we’ve seen a rotation of Nate McCollum, Kalani Norris and Adonicas Sanders, but the production/snap counts are far from consistent. Realistically, our focus is Sims, Gibbs, and a sprinkle of McGowan. That’s it.
Virginia:
Feel like we’ve had Virginia on a DFS slate so much that there isn’t much more I can add here that we don’t already know. Brennan Armstrong has attempted 100 more passes than the next closest ACC quarterback this season so we never worry about passing volume. Averaging six less rushing attempts this year compared to last due to lingering knee issues. Favorable matchup against a Georgia Tech pass defense that is 92nd in Pass Success Rate and allowing 27 FPPG to opposing QBs. Tech has been very good at stopping the run, so I do wonder if they’ll drop another defender into coverage as they don’t really have to worry about the UVA run game. The Hoos are 123rd in the country in rush attempts per game so we aren’t focused one bit at the UVA backfield. Nobody had more than five carries last week against Duke. Latest I’ve seen, everyone is healthy at receiver so expect to see your usual suspects in Billy Kemp, Dontayvian Wicks, Jelani Woods and football player Keytaon Thompson. That foursome combined for 35 of the 43 targets against the Blue Devils – and that was in a blowout situation. Ra’Shaun Henry was relegated to his backup role with just two targets. Tech is allowing 10.1 FPPG to opposing TE’s this season and Woods does have an enticing price point on FanDuel. All four are viable.
Ohio State @ Indiana
Point-Spread: OSU -21
O/U Total: 59.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 24% rain / 5 mph winds
Ohio State:
No hotter offense in the country than the Buckeyes who are now the highest-scoring team in the nation, scoring at least 40 points in five of six games and 50+ in the last three. After the results of the early games, should we be worried about a team going on the road, coming off a bye week, with a massive game the following week against Penn State. We are seeing plenty of examples today already of teams looking ahead. Beating the Indiana offense is a bit easier through the air as the Hoosiers are 61st in Pass Play Success Rate, allowing over 24 FPPG to opposing QBs. CJ Stroud has been on a tear since reclaiming his starting job, tossing five touchdowns in each of the last two games. I’m still a bit tentative because this Indiana defense held Bailey Zappe, Desmond Ridder and Payton Thorne well below their seasonal averages. The Hoosiers are also an above-average run defense, ranking 36th in Rush Play Success Rate, and held Kenneth Walker to just 3.65 YPC last week. Difference here being the elite Ohio State offensive line that is 3rd in Line Yards, 13th in Stuff Rate and 16th in Rush Play Success Rate. TreVeyon Henderson’s workload has been sporadic with three consecutive blowouts, and it sounds as though Miyan Williams could potentially be back this week. His return could result in a depressed ownership rate for Henderson. On the year, Indiana is allowing just 14.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Minimal difference in the projections for Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Olave has five TDs in the last three weeks. Wilson’s been equally productive with six TDs in six games, but is seeing a decline in his targets, averaging just five in the last three weeks. Seems to coincide with WR3 Jaxon Smith-Njigba who has had at least six targets in each game during that three-game span.
Indiana:
I wouldn’t get cute with Indiana players today aside from some of the pass-catchers. Since the Oregon loss, Ryan Day made a staff change that has led to improved results, allowing just 12.3 PPG over the last three games. The secondary play has captained the resurgence with nine interceptions. Looks like Jack Tuttle will get another start this week and is one of our lowest projected QB of the slate at just 12.7 fantasy points. Not surprising given his performance a week ago, throwing for just 188 yards and two interceptions on 52 attempts. Woof. In what should be a similar game script, that aids the Indiana pass-catchers, primarily Ty Fryfogle and Peyton Hendershot. With DJ Matthews out for the season, Fryfogle has moved back to the slot and has had three-straight games of double-digit targets, with at least eight targets in every game this season. Same goes for Hendershot who is inexpensive at $3,800 with 21 of his 24 receptions coming in the last four games. I wouldn’t go after any other Indiana receivers but just to cover our bases, Javon Swinton had six targets against the Spartans. Miles Marshall had a season high nine targets with 19 total in the last three games. I don’t have a ton of interest in Stephen Carr at running back against an Ohio State rush defense that is 10th in Run Play Success Rate. Hoosiers are 100th in Line Yards and the 12th ranked run offense in the Big Ten. The biggest proponent for Carr is that he will see ALL the carries in the Indiana backfield – we love volume – and had a season high nine targets last week which boosts his value if we think Indiana will have a similar game script.
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