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Kansas vs. Baylor
Point-Spread: Baylor -9.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Baylor 34 – KU 24.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 23 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jason Bean ($7,300) This game total has dropped about four points already throughout the week, with Baylor now a 9.5-point favorite (was 8.5 on Monday). That makes me wary in rostering any KU players this week. Baylor’s D is weakest in the secondary where almost every team they’ve faced this season has been able to throw on them. 86th in pass play success rate and 23.5 FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s.
Fade – WR Luke Grimm ($6,500) Another player like Steven Anderson (Tulsa) that I simply don’t understand why their salary is always this high? Solid player, leads the team in targets (38) and receptions (26) but has not scored more than 20 fantasy points all year long. Just 23% target share. Absolutely makes sense to bargain hunt if rostering a KU receiver.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($3,700) Apparently Jason Bean likes throwing to tight ends more than Jalon Daniels did. Nine of Fairchild’s 13 receptions this season have come in the last two games with three touchdowns. Baylor has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the country, though the Big 12 isn’t exactly known for its superior tight end play.
Pivot Play – RB Devin Neal ($5,300) Baylor is third in the Big 12 in rush defense and 12th in rush play success rate but were absolutely gashed on the ground last week against West Virginia for over 200 yards and three scores. Opposing RB1s are averaging 18.7 FPPG against the Bears and Kansas has the offensive line that can hold up in the trenches with Baylor. I know Kansas loves their depth, but I wish we saw Neal get more than 10.8 attempts per game because he’s averaging close to seven yards a pop. If there weren’t a surplus of RB options on the slate, I’d like Neal a bit more this week.
Best of the Rest – WR Lawrence Arnold ($5,500) Arnold scored twice last weekend against Oklahoma and leads the team in routes run in 2022. 13 targets in the last two games. WR Quentin Skinner ($4,400) presents great height at 6-foot-5 and is a staff favorite. Followed up his two-touchdown performance against TCU with a dud against the Sooners. Averages just 3.2 targets per game.
Injury Notes – QB Jalon Daniels The Kansas QB1 is not practicing right now according to Lance Leipold, so we don’t expect to see him this week. Early November was the anticipated return date.
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($5,900) With the surplus of RBs on the slate, someone like Reese I think can go under the radar despite a terrific matchup. KU was gashed left and right last week by Oklahoma on the ground for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns. The Jayhawks are 113th in rush play success rate defensively and allowing 18.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s, now facing one of the better O-lines in the conference. We saw Qualan Jones dip into the carry distribution a bit last week, but no reason to think Reese is not the RB1 right now.
Fade – QB Blake Shapen ($6,900) HC Dave Aranda said on his weekly radio show that Shapen is back at practice this week and has looked good since suffering the concussion against WVU. While a positive development for the Baylor offense, we don’t need to mess around a roster him at this price where guys like Jaxson Dart, Behren Morton and others are cheaper with higher projections.
Bargain Bin – RB Qualan Jones ($3,000) We can dismiss it, but Jones did get 10 carries last week for 41 yards and a touchdown. As a near double-digit favorite, with potentially a less-than-100 percent quarterback, Baylor may lean on the ground game Saturday. Jones is projected at over 10 fantasy points this week.
Pivot Play – WR Gavin Holmes ($4,900) Anyone that goes for 210 yards on seven receptions the prior week deserves consideration. And it’s not a total outlier in that Holmes has scored a TD in three of his last four games. The 210 yards is absolutely an outlier, and would not expect a repeat performance from a WR that averages 3.6 targets per game for the season.
Best of the Rest – WR Monaray Baldwin ($7,500) Baldwin is the cautionary tale that we could see playout with Holmes this week. The sophomore wideout followed up his 174-yard, two touchdown performance against Oklahoma State with 2-42-0 vs. West Virginia. Baylor does not have wide receiver with more than 13% target share on the year. Ben Sims ($4,600) is the team leader in that category (28) but he was usurped by Drake Dabney ($3,700) last week who posted five catches on seven targets. Probably best to just not invest in the Baylor passing game.
Injury Notes – RB Craig Williams Aranda said that Sqwirl is likely out again this week.
Syracuse vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -13.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Clem 31.5 – Syr 18
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($6,100) Let the overthinking commence! Bad matchup against a top-tier defense and a low implied team total. But we also have a very reasonable price and one of the best dual-threats in the country. Probably wouldn’t be in my cash game lineup, but for multi-entry GPP, I feel like we must consider Shrader in this spot simply because of cost. It’s not like the Clemson D has shut down opposing QBs. Hell, Jordan Travis scored 37 Fpts on em’ last week, and are allowing 26.2 FPPG on the year.
Fade – Anyone outside the Big 3. Against NC State, Shrader and Sean Tucker got every single carry in the running game. And hybrid receiver Orondre Gadsden had 141 of the team’s 210 receiving yards. No player outside of that trio is projected at more than seven fantasy points this week.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Sean Tucker ($6,900) Strength of the Clemson defense is on the line, wreaking havoc in opposing backfields. The Tigers are 21st in rush play success rate, have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to opposing RB1s in the country and are fifth overall in yards allowed on the ground. Tucker gets it done in multiple ways – 24 receptions on 31 targets – but this is not the week we play him in DFS.
Best of the Rest – WR Orondre Gadsden ($6,300) Take out Sean Tucker’s 31 targets and Gadsden would account for over 30% of the team share among the remaining Syracuse pass-catchers. The sophomore hybrid has emerged as the team’s top playmaker, essentially playing the Keytaon Thompson role on Robert Anae’s offense as Gadsden runs 76.6% of his routes from the slot at 6-foot-5. Has five of the team’s 12 receiving touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($6,800) Syracuse is No. 1 in the ACC in yards allowed per game and scoring, so the Clemson offense has its work cut out for them this week. Of the defensive components, Syracuse is probably more vulnerable against the run, ranking 35th in success rate. Still top-third range in the country and are giving up just 13.3 FPPG to opposing RBs. So Shipley is absolutely not a must-play this week, but game script works in his favor here and he’s seen his usage rates at a receiver increase in the last month.
Fade – WR Joe Ngata ($4,900) Still technically the starter, but now Adam Randall is full on his heels for the starting job having played 23 or more offensive snaps in each of the last two games. Meanwhile, Ngata’s snap counts and routes run each game are trending in the wrong direction the last three weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Davis Allen ($3,700) 16 of Davis’ 22 targets and all three of his receiving touchdowns have come in the last four games. Syracuse did struggle to cover Purdue’s Payne Durham earlier in the year, allowing 29 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – WR Antonio Williams ($5,300) Sits third on the team in targets (28) but leads all WRs with an 85.7% conversion rate. The starting slot receiver logs over 40 offensive snaps per game, 93% of which come in the slot, and is second on the team in yards per route run (2.24). Much of his action is coming around the LOS with a 8.6 aDOT and only averages four targets a game, so not a priority play, but the freshman is looking like a future star.
Best of the Rest – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,400) DJU has been excellent this season, but I’m not comfortable with him here in this spot. Syracuse is No. 1 in the ACC in pass defense, 4th in the country in pass play success rate and giving up just 16.6 FPPG to opposing QBs. WR Beaux Collins played 43 of 68 offensive snaps against Florida State but logged just one target and gave way to EJ Williams for a third of the game.
Injury Notes – n/a
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