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Mississippi State vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -21
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Bama 41 – MSU 19.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Most likely a full team fade here. What started as a promising campaign for receivers like Caleb Ducking ($5,800) and Rara Thomas ($5,700) has turned into the nightmare scenario where Mike Leach will rotate 7-8 receivers, essentially nullifying their value. That’s been the case as no MSU wideout has more than 15% target share. RB Dillon Johnson ($5,500) has been confirmed OUT, so it’ll be mostly RB Jo’Quavious Marks ($5,000). Only a potential option in DK in the full-point PPR format. 21 of his 33 targets have come in the last two games. Alabama is outscoring Mississippi State 90-9 since Mike Leach’s arrival so I don’t have a ton of confidence QB Will Rogers ($7,600) and this offense can buck the trend against an angry Alabama defense. Rogers threw for 300 yards against the Tide a year ago, but also tossed three INTs with zero scores.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,800) I’ll be very curious to see if Gibbs is a test case for other superstar college football players in the future. Sporadic usage in the non-conference and then exploding in conference play with the type of workload we expected in the preseason. 20+ touches in each of the last three games, facing a Mississippi State defense that is a shell of what they’ve been in year’s past, ranking ninth in the SEC in yards allowed on the ground and 104th in success rate. Gibbs is close to lock territory.
Fade – WR Traeshon Holden ($6,700) As we kind of suspected earlier in the regular season, the Alabama WR corps is finally starting to take firm shape as we near towards the latter portion of the year. Holden played just 12 snaps against Tennessee as we’re seeing some of the young pups get more work in the slot.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Harrell ($3,900) General rule is that I need to see at least one game of evidence before investing in playing a guy in CFF. DFS, particularly GPP, is much different because of our goal to differentiate from the crowd. So, I can understand possibly playing Harrell this week. He’s been practicing for two weeks now with no limitations and seem close to playing. Could this be the week? He would fill the Burton role.
Pivot Play – QB Bryce Young ($9,100) GPP-play only as there are cheaper options at our disposal in the slate, and the matchup isn’t great as MSU is 24th in pass play success rate and giving up only 20.8 FPPG to opposing QBs. Still, that Tennessee game reinforced just how much of a wizard Young is with the football as he set season-highs with 52 attempts, 35 completions and 455 passing yards. Don’t think we see that volume as a three-touchdown favorite.
Best of the Rest – WR JaCorey Brooks ($5,800) The sophomore has ascended to the top of the depth chart, scoring four touchdowns in the last four games, and leading all Tide receivers in snaps vs. Tennessee. Not the strongest crop of WRs to choose from in this slate so Brooks is definitely in play. JoJo Earle ($4,300) had just one target but played a season-high 34 offensive snaps. WR Kobe Prentice ($5,900) is intriguing and did have a season-high 10 targets against Tennessee. The freshman only averaged 3.8 targets per game prior to that, so feels a bit like an outlier in a game Alabama was trailing.
Injury Notes – WR Jermaine Burton ($6,100) Non-injury related but I’d be surprised if Burton played the entire game or played at all against MSU after striking a female fan following the Tennessee matchup. Not that Burton has been productive enough to even warrant spending up to $6,100. This feels like the most we’ve talked about him all season.
Boise State vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: AF -2.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: AF 25 – BSU 22.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 13 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB George Holani ($7,100) Holani’s numbers have skyrocketed since instituting Taylen Green as the starting QB, averaging over eight yards a carry with three total touchdowns in the last two games. Average run defense for Air Force this year, ranking 45th in rush play success rate and allowing 14.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Still, its been a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy following the Hank Bachmeier transfer, as Boise State is running the ball 71% of the time over that span.
Fade – WR Stefan Cobbs ($7,500) This one pains me as a Stefan Cobbs truther in the preseason. The quarterback situation and offensive scheme just did not pan out, rendering Cobbs and the rest of the Boise State receivers useless. We don’t have a single Boise State receiver projected at over nine fantasy points so this is an easy fade.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($6,100) Any quarterback who can get you 100 yards on the ground is always in play, which Green has done twice already this season, while winning both of his starts. Not in love with the matchup against an Air Force defense that is giving up 15.4 FPPG to opposing QBs on the year and will undoubtedly be a game with minimal posessions given how much both teams run the football. Though, if Cooper Legas can score 34 fantasy points against Air Force, Green has the skill to do the same.
Best of the Rest – RB Ashton Jeanty ($4,500) George Holani isn’t the only one getting in on the action with true FR and future stud Ashton Jeanty seeing double-digit carries in four of the last five games. GPP play here coming off a season-high 19 rushing attempts as most players likely won’t roster Boise State’s “backup.”
Injury Notes – n/a
Air Force:
We’re taking the Wisconsin DFS approach here of FB Brad Roberts ($7,000) or bust. This is a dominant Boise State defense. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs in 2022. Boise State has also allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing QB1s this season at just 13.5 FPPG. Only Chance Nolan in the opener score more than 14 fantasy points against this secondary.
To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.