New Mexico State vs. UTEP
Point-Spread: NMSU -3
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: NMSU 25 – UTEP 23
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($9,300) There is an eight-point difference between Pavia and the next closest quarterback on this slate in our projections, meaning he’s as close to a DFS lock as you can get. 23 or more fantasy points in each of the last four games. The Miners are better against the pass than the run, but Pavia can beat you with his arm and legs. UTEP is allowing just 13.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, but the best QB they’ve faced outside of Jayden de Laura is Zion Webb who managed just 8.8 fantasy points against this defense.
Fade – RB Jamoni Jones ($4,600) You look at the numbers and start to wonder why some of these players get the playing time that they do. Three-way split in the NMSU backfield with no Aggie running back seeing more than nine carries in a game since Week 3. Jones will see between 4-7 carries on Wednesday as he normally does but hasn’t averaged more than four yards a carry in five weeks with less than 20 rushing yards in that span.
Bargain Bin – WR Kordell David ($3,300) New Mexico State’s leading receiver a year ago has struggled mightily in 2023 with just 60 receiving yards in seven games and a 31.6% catch rate. Was targeted a season-high seven times last week against Sam Houston State while playing 50 of 73 offensive snaps, but you wonder how many more opportunities he’ll get in the starting lineup after dropping two more passes.
Pivot Play – WR Trent Hudson ($5,800) or WR Jonathan Brady ($5,700) Probably wouldn’t stack the two together, but with the way Diego Pavia is throwing the ball of late, it’s not the worst strategy. Team leaders in targets with 38% of the team’s receiving yards and over half of NMSU’s receiving touchdowns. Big-play potential with both, averaging over 18 yards per catch, and a 17.4 and 12.1 aDOT, respectively. UTEP is allowing the 18th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs among teams playing this week.
Best of the Rest – RB Star Thomas ($6,000) Double-digit fantasy points for Thomas in three of the last four games, facing a UTEP defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points in the country to running backs. I’d be fine with one of Thomas or backup RB Monte Watkins ($4,800) in every lineup, even paired with Pavia. QB Eli Stowers ($6,100) isn’t a realistic option in the flex, but should be noted that he’s transitioned to wide receiver as the Aggies are searching for more playmakers at the position. 10 targets in the last two games, with more receiving yards already than Kordell David has for the entire season.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – WR Kelly Akharaiyi ($6,200) The senior receiver finally delivered last week with all the targets he receives, catching eight passes for 223 yards and two scores against FIU. I’d say this was more fool’s gold than the norm, but Akharaiyi is averaging 7.1 targets per game and has seen fewer than six targets in just one game in 2023. The issue is drops (5) as the new WR1 has just a 48% catch rate. NMSU is allowing 18.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.
Fade – WRs Beyond the Top 3. The combination of Akharaiyi, WR Jeremiah Ballard ($4,900) and slot receiver Marcus Bellon ($4,800) combined for 16 of the 18 targets last week vs. FIU. Same scenario in Week 5 against Louisiana Tech where the trio combined for 92% of the targets that went to UTEP pass-catchers. Running backs and tight ends are not featured in this passing game.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not play anyone under $4.8k on the Miners.
Pivot Play – QB Cade McConnell ($5,500) Impressive first career start for McConnell, completing over 70% of his passes for 262 yards and two scores. New Mexico State’s secondary can be leaky at times, allowing 22.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks – not much better than the FIU defense McConnell dominated last week – and rank 104th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Kelly Akharaiyi ($6,200) The senior receiver finally delivered last week with all the targets he receives, catching eight passes for 223 yards and two scores against FIU. I’d say this was more fool’s gold than the norm, but Akharaiyi is averaging 7.1 targets per game and has seen fewer than six targets in just one game in 2023. The issue is drops (5) as the new WR1 has just a 48% catch rate. NMSU is allowing 18.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season. Split backfield with RB Terrance Burgess Jr. ($5,900) and RB Deion Hankins ($5,400), but the former has been the more productive of the two backs. For that reason, along with Hankins being so touchdown-dependent for fantasy points because he’s not utilized at all in the passing game, is why I’d favor Burgess. Hankins is the GPP play.
Injury Notes – QB Gavin Hardison ($6,900) Listed as questionable, but I’d consider it more doubtful as the last update provided was Hardison watching practice, not suited up, with a sleeve on his arm. WR Tyrin Smith ($5,500) was not seen at practice either, and is a strong redshirt candidate, likely in hopes of hitting the transfer portal again this offseason.
Florida International vs. Sam Houston State
Point-Spread: SHSt -5.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: SHSt 23.5 – FIU 18
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida International:
Top Play(s) – WR Kris Mitchell ($7,400) 70 receiving yards in each of the last six games for Mitchell who has 20 more receptions than the next closest FIU player. Of the pricy options on the slate, Mitchell is probably the one that you can get by without having in your lineups because you’ll prioritize a QB like Diego Pavia, but he’s the clear WR1 on the slate.
Fade – WRs Not Named Kris Mitchell. Just five times in 21 combined games between Jalen Bracey, Dean Patterson and Eric Rivers have they hit double-digit fantasy points. Not sure I’d have confidence in any of them with a dinged-up quarterback.
Bargain Bin – TE Josiah Miamen ($3,600) Touted the former Iowa transfer at the beginning of the season because of FIU’s lack of weapons at wide receiver, and this coaching staff’s prior usage of the tight end position. Hasn’t panned out, but a small uptick of late with 71% of his receiving yards coming in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Kejon Owens ($5,300) Owens has been the better back of the two between him and Shomari Lawrence, averaging eight yards a carry in the last two games. Sam Houston is allowing just 23.1 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, so not necessary to have either player in a lineup but would favor the younger / more explosive option of the two backs.
Best of the Rest – QB Keyone Jenkins ($6,200) The rushing usage for Jenkins is intriguing with a rushing touchdown in each of the last four games, but that’s also led to the freshman quarterback taking an absolute beating. Jenkins is reportedly good to go for tonight but has been knocked out of the game the past two weeks. This is another soft matchup opportunity for Jenkins, facing a Sam Houston defense allowing the 19th most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks, but I’m not confident Jenkins will play the entirety of the game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Sam Houston State:
Top Play(s) – WR Noah Smith ($6,400) Smith has become a target hog with double-digit targets in each of the last three games following the season-long injury to Ife Adeyi. From a pricing and production standpoint, Smith is the top WR play on the slate by a longshot, especially on DK in a PPR scoring format. FIU is allowing 22.1 FPPG to WR1s this season.
Fade – RBs. We’ll cover off on Sam Houston’s best RB option in the injury portion of the writeup, but the ambiguity surrounding the injuries at this position have me wanting to avoid the headache and fade entirely. FIU has actually been a stout run defense for CUSA standards, allowing just 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 44th in rush D success rate. Sam Houston State is now 26th nationally in pass play percentage with the improved play at the QB position + the injuries at RB.
Bargain Bin – WR Simeon Evans ($3,700) Won’t pretend to know anything about Evans, but he was targeted seven times last week with five receptions. If SHSt can’t run the football effectively again, expect another 40 passing attempts from this offense.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Phillips ($5,100) The increased passing volume has not just benefited Noah Smith, but also a developing sophomore in Malik Phillips who has over 200 receiving yards combined over the last two weeks. 19 of his 28 targets have come in that span. Played a season-high 63 of 70 offensive snaps against New Mexico State last week. WR Al’Vonte Woodard ($5,000) is a former 4-star recruit and Texas transfer that has also seen a production spike of late with 17 of his 19 targets coming in the last two games. GPP play only.
Best of the Rest – QB Keegan Shoemaker ($6,600) Shoemaker is likely to be my superflex option paired with his WR1 in Noah Smith and Diego Pavia at QB. I’ll build my lineups around that trio. As mentioned above, Sam Houston State is throwing the ball a ton the last three weeks, averaging over 40 attempts per. I’m not opposed to a Sam Houston State triple stack either with Shoemaker, Smith, and Malik Phillips. FIU is giving up 22.2 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – RB John Gentry ($4,700) Head coach KC Keeler stated this week that they’re hopeful to get former Utah State transfer John Gentry back in the lineup, but then followed that up by saying he may not be a “full-time player.”
