North Texas vs. Charlotte
- Point-Spread: UNT -26.5
- O/U Total: 60.5
- Implied Score: UNT 43.5 – Char 17
- Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
North Texas:
Top Play(s) – QB Drew Mestemaker ($8,500) All lineup builds start and end with Mestemaker. There isn’t one trustworthy QB option on any other team on the slate. Mestemaker has thrown six passing touchdowns in the last two games, facing a team that is allowing over 28 FPPG to quarterbacks. Mestemaker has gotten it done on the ground as well with three rushing scores in the last three weeks.
Fade – WR Simeon Evans ($4,200) I’d be curious to see the injury report here if Evans is listed on Friday, because he did not see a single snap against UTSA last week. He’s either injured or out of the rotation. Zero snaps when North Texas was already down a few receivers last week is concerning.
Bargain Bin – WR Cameron Dorner ($4,400) Dorner is the preferred option of the outside receivers after catching five passes in each of the last two games. WR Landon Sides ($5,400) played 60% of the snaps against UTSA last week and didn’t record a single target.
Pivot Play – RB Makenzie McGill II ($5,700) or RB Kiefer Sibley ($5,000) This “should” be a relatively comfortable victory for the Mean Green on Friday being near four-touchdown favorites. That means potentially less Caleb Hawkins and more involvement from the backups who combined for 103 rushing yards and a touchdown in the blowout of UTSA.
Best of the Rest – RB Caleb Hawkins ($8,000) Hawkins isn’t UNT’s top play because of the limited QB options on the slate, whereas you can probably find 2-3 other viable plays outside of Hawkins, even with his backup who we listed above. Charlotte has done a decent job at limiting explosive runs this season, but the 49ers are 133rd nationally in rush D success rate and dead last in the AAC in yards allowed on the ground. WR Wyatt Young ($6,000) has emerged as the team’s best WR in the last few weeks, scoring 59 combined fantasy points, including three touchdowns last week. Coleman being back potentially would diminish his value, as both play in the slot…so that’s something to watch for.
Injury Notes – WR Miles Coleman (questionable)
Charlotte:
We don’t have a single player on Charlotte projected to score more than 10 points as this is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, ranked 129th in scoring (17.1 PPG) and 122nd in total offense (314.3 YPG). Remove the Charlotte QBs and RBs from your queue, they’re not even in the conversation as playable. WR Javen Nichols ($4,600) has been the most consistent of the Charlotte receivers, leading the team in targets (47), receptions (34) and routes run. WR Sean Brown ($3,400) and WR Miles Burris ($3,800) played most of the contest last week against Temple. If WR E. Jai Mason ($4,500) is available, he jumped near the top of the list with a team-high four touchdowns but is currently questionable. Mason playing, means Sean Brown would go back to the bench as WR4.
California vs. Virginia Tech
- Point-Spread: VT -4.5
- O/U Total: 50.5
- Implied Score: VT 27.5 – Cal 23
- Weather: 49 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendrick Raphael ($6,200) Productive week again for the NC State transfer with 81 yards and a touchdown against North Carolina. The volume distribution is what we like most here with Raphael with 18+ rushing attempts in his last two starts. Backup LJ Johnson has had just six combined carries in those two games. The Hokies ranked 15th among 17 teams in the ACC in yards allowed on the ground, are 106th in stuff rate and 96th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Jordan King ($3,000) There’s quite a bit of separation between the top two receivers and then King as the third option, but he’s become the established WR3 for the Bears with 10 of his 14 catches coming in the last three games. King has played over 67% of the offensive snaps in the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Jaron Sagapolutele ($7,400) For as bad as Virginia Tech is against the run, the Hokies are worse against the pass, ranked 127th in success rate and 106th in explosive plays allowed. We’ve seen JKS hit a bit of a freshman wall in the last month, throwing more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4), so this is far from a priority play.
Best of the Rest – WR Jacob de Jesus ($6,200) JDJ is probably the highest owned WR on the slate, and for good reason, particularly on DraftKings with full-point PPR scoring. The UNLV transfer is coming off a career outing with 12 receptions on 17 targets against North Carolina for 106 yards and a score. JDJ has now caught at least six passes in five of the last six games. WR Trond Grizzell ($4,300) was shut out of the stat column against UNC last week, but is second in targets (41), third in receptions (24) and first on the team in routes run. Virginia Tech will give up explosives in the passing game, which Grizzell could take advantage of with a 15.8 aDOT and 16.7 YPC average.
Injury Notes – RB LJ Johnson (out)
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($7,800) Regardless of your thoughts on Drones the passer, we have a dual threat quarterback on a slate without many legitimate quarterback options. Drones has 78 designed rushing attempts this season which is second among QBs in the ACC behind only Haynes King, and the Hokies are leaning more on his legs with Philip Montgomery at the helm.
Fade – TE Benji Gosnell ($3,300) Gosnell has not caught a pass in his last two games played and failed to record more than 25 receiving yards in any game this season. Adding insult to injury, we saw sophomore TE Ja’Ricous Hairston ($3,200) catch two touchdown passes on as many targets in the loss to Georgia Tech.
Bargain Bin – WR Takye Heath ($3,600) We’ll be very cautious in rostering any Va Tech receiver as the Cal secondary is legitimately good, ranking 22nd in success rate and 39th at limiting explosive pass plays. Combine that with one of the worst passing attacks in the ACC and that’s not a recipe for DFS success by having much exposure to Hokie pass-catchers. Heath has been effective the last two games with 81 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Pivot Play – RB Terion Stewart ($5,400) or RB Marcellous Hawkins ($5,200) Expect Virginia Tech to keep the ball on the ground A LOT on Friday. The Hokies threw the ball just 21 times against Georgia Tech and they were trailing that game by multiple touchdowns. Stewart has been excellent when healthy, averaging almost eight yards a carry. He’s just never healthy, dating back to his Bowling Green days. Cal is giving up around 30 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season.
Injury Notes – RB Braydon Bennett (out)
Boise State vs. Nevada
- Point-Spread: BSU -21
- O/U Total: 51
- Implied Score: BSU 36 – Nev 15
- Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Riley ($6,800) The decision for this slate comes down to whether you want to roster Riley or Kendrick Raphael, because it’s tough to get to all three running backs (Caleb Hawkins included) with the top two QBs as well. You’d essentially have to punt two WR spots in that scenario with all three RBs in the lineup. Nevada doesn’t defend the run well, allowing 156 YPC on the ground (somehow better than Boise State), and rank 123rd in rush D success rate, so we do prefer Riley to Raphael if choosing between the two.
Fade – RB Malik Sherrod ($5,100) This could turn into a blowout where all three running backs for Boise State hit value, but Sherrod is the biggest risk of the three. His volume has declined significantly since the start of the season, with the coaching staff realizing that he’s simply a gadget player that’s best used on special teams and 3rd downs. He’s been a non-factor as a runner the last three weeks.
Bargain Bin – WR Cameron Bates ($3,200) Bates will step into a starting role with Ben Ford now out for the season due to injury. His most extended action this season came last week against UNLV, playing over 60% of the offensive snaps, and converted on all three of his targets for 54 yards.
Pivot Play – TE Matt Lauter ($4,900) Lauter has been one of the biggest busts in college fantasy football this season relative to their preseason positional ranking. Nevada has not defended the tight end position well this season, particularly of late, allowing 56 yards to New Mexico’s Dorian Thomas and 7-67-0 to Fresno State’s Richie Anderson.
Best of the Rest – QB Maddux Madsen ($8,100) We strongly lean towards Mestemaker and Drones as the two quarterbacks to start over Madsen as Boise State likely doesn’t need to take to the air much against the Wolfpack. Nevada has been strong at suppressing big plays in the passing game, ranked 5th in the country in pass D explosiveness and only allowing 17 FPPG to quarterbacks. RB Sire Gaines ($5,900) is an option in lineups that are built around Boise State dominating time of possession with the run game as a double-digit favorite.
Injury Notes – WR Ben Ford (out)
Nevada:
Somehow, Charlotte was not the worst offense on this slate because Nevada has them beat. 128th in total offense, averaging just 302 YPG. 130th in offense success rate. 134th in points per opportunity. And 133rd in scoring at just 16.6 FPPG. We’re out on any quarterback on a team with those kinds of numbers, though freshman QB Carter Jones ($6,600) looks like he may have a bright future.
Nevada’s run game has hit a wall, averaging less than two yards a carry in each of the last two games. Statistically, those two run defenses are better than Boise State’s so maybe RB Caleb Ramseur ($5,600) could provide value, as he ran for two touchdowns last week despite averaging 2.8 YPC. WR Dakota Thomas ($3,700) and WR Marshaun Brown ($3,400) were heavily targeted last week against New Mexico, with a combined 15 receptions on 17 targets. Maybe there’s a newfound connection between those two and the new starting quarterback. TE Jett Carpenter ($3,300) leads the team in routes run and has been useful at times with 70+ receiving yards in two games.
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Drew Mestemaker, North Texas
- RB Caleb Hawkins, North Texas
- RB Dylan Riley, Boise State
- QB Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Caleb Hawkins, North Texas
- RB Kendrick Raphael, California
- QB Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech
- QB Drew Mestemaker, North Texas
