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Arkansas vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Ark -3.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Ark 33 – Aub 29.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB KJ Jefferson ($6,300) Jefferson was sensational against BYU the last time we saw him, throwing for 367 yards and five touchdowns. Though as you read in the Friday DFS writeup, succeeding against the BYU defense in 2022 is not all that impressive a feat. Jefferson is going to pop in optimizers this week because of his salary and should be healthier coming off the bye week after dealing with a concussion earlier in the year. Does that mean we see his typical 15-17 attempt workload on the ground?
Fade – WR Warren Thompson ($4,400) Probably an obvious answer to all, but Thompson is now the 5th or 6th option in the Arkansas passing game as he’s lost his starting spot to Ketron Jackson ($3,700). He’s out-snapped Thompson in each of the last four games.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Suppose it would be Ketron Jackson who we mentioned above. 14 of his 20 targets have come in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Raheim Sanders ($6,900) Probably the strongest pivot of the slate considering most will be on Jefferson this week and won’t look to pair both in the same lineup. Auburn is far worse at defending the run, ranking 105th in rush play success rate and allow the 14th most FPPG (20.5) to opposing RB1s in the country.
Best of the Rest – WR Matt Landers ($4,800) Career day for Landers against BYU with 99 yards and three scores on 10 targets – easily his season-high. As we stated above, Auburn’s strength is in its secondary, allowing just 12.0 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season. WR Jadon Haselwood ($5,800) leads the team in receptions (31) and targets (41) but has scored double-digit fantasy points just four times this year. He is what he is at this point in his career.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – QB Robby Ashford ($5,200) Say hello to the punt play of the week in DFS. Running quarterback at $5.2k on a team that is projected to score four touchdowns will always pop in projections/optimizers. I think my only concern here is the wheels falling off for Auburn as a team with a head coach on the verge of being fired and multiple players entering the portal this week. Ashford can’t throw worth a damn, completing just 47.9% of his passes for the year, but we’re investing in his running ability. And QBs have fared well this season against the Razorbacks, averaging 27.5 FPPG.
Fade – Any and all Auburn WRs. See Robby Ashford’s passing numbers.
Bargain Bin – RB Jarquez Hunter ($4,200) Biggest question I need to uncover between now (Thursday) and Saturday morning is how the Auburn offense looks against Arkansas. Meaning…are we getting 38 pass attempts from Robby Ashford as he did vs. LSU and Georgia. Or can Auburn have enough success on the ground like they did against Ole Miss to where, even in a negative game script, the Tigers will still run the football 38 times as a team. For the season, the Razorbacks are 114th defensively in rush play success rate, so you’d think Auburn can go for 200+ on the ground as they did against Ole Miss. If that’s the case, do we see double-digit carries again from Hunter? Or did I just type a whole paragraph on a backup for nothing?
Pivot Play – RB Tank Bigsby ($5,400) Same argument here as we had for Rocket Sanders above. Everyone is going to be on the quarterbacks in this matchup. Don’t ignore Bigsby here facing a terrible Arkansas rush defense that is allowing 22.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the season – the sixth worst mark in the country.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: Tx Tech -2.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Tx Tech 31.5 – Bay 29
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – RB Richard Reese ($5,900) The star freshman now ranks second among all first-year players in the country with nine rushing touchdowns and rushing yards (643). Career-high 31 attempts for 186 yards in the win over Kansas last week and benefitted from the best performance of the year from the Baylor offensive line. Tech is a middle of the road run defense, ranking 58th in rush play success rate and allowing over 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Baylor’s OL is 17th in stuff rate and 23rd in line yards so they should be able to control the LOS.
Fade – WRs. If you want to play musical chairs as to which Baylor receiver pops off this week, be my guest. No wideout has more than 14% of the total target share.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Sims ($4,400) The most consistent of the Baylor pass-catchers, posting 30 receiving yards or more in all but one game this season, and the team leader in targets (32). Very low upside here.
Pivot Play – WR Gavin Holmes ($5,100) Yes, I know what I said about the Baylor receivers. But if we’re playing the potential slate-breaking game, you might consider spending up just a bit for someone like Holmes who does have a 200-yard game on his resume this season, than go with the safe play in Ben Sims. Most extensive playing time of the year the last two weeks for Holmes with 50% of his targets this season coming in that span. You also run the risk of a goose egg as he’s posted 20 yards or less in half the games played in 2022.
Best of the Rest – QB Blake Shapen ($6,400) 18-point projection probably won’t get it done for us in what should be a high-scoring slate. Only way you play Shapen in my opinion is in a game stack with Behren Morton where you’re projecting this game to shoot out. Baylor is Top 40 nationally in pace, facing the No. 1 team in pace, so there is a non-zero chance that occurs? Tech is 18th in pass play success rate and allowing 24.9 FPPG to opposing QBs.
Injury Notes – WR Monaray Baldwin ($7,100) Only played 18 snaps vs. Kansas last week before leaving the game due to injury. HC Dave Aranda said that they won’t know until Thursday about his status, essentially meaning we won’t know until this afternoon. RB Craig Williams sounds like he is probable. Taye McWilliams is still a week or two out from returning. Neither will be much of a factor even when they do return to the field.
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Behren Morton ($6,800) Block out the nonsense and obvious coach-speak from the staff. Absolutely idiotic decision by the coaching staff if they were to purposefully play Tyler Shough this week. Morton is the guy now and moving forward that you build a program around. Shough is an injury-prone senior that is not part of the future. Morton struggling against Baylor…different story. But I don’t see that happening either as their secondary has been torched all year long, allowing 23.9 FPPG to opposing QBs and 77th in pass play success rate.
Fade – RBs. You know where the rushing props this week stand for both SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks? Around 40 yards for each. The two weeks prior to last it was Thompson getting the bulk of the work. Last week it was Brooks. No rhyme or reason to how the backfield shakes out here with the staff always reverting to the “hot hand” approach. Baylor is No. 2 in the Big 12 in yards allowed on the ground and 18th in rush play success rate. Easy fade for this slate.
Bargain Bin – WR Nehemiah Martinez ($3,000) Price’s return to the lineup impacts Martinez more than it would White, in my opinion (more on that below). If Price is out again, Martinez deserves heavy consideration, coming off a season-high 6-52-0 on seven targets vs. West Virginia.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier White ($4,600) Doesn’t matter to me if Myles Price is back in the lineup or not. Inside receivers combined for 16 receptions on 19 targets last week. Remember last year with OC Zach Kittley at Western Kentucky. Malachi Corley was the WR2 in the slot and still caught 75 passes as a freshman. Not to mention White has been more effective than Price was when in the lineup. I’d start White confidently again this week.
Best of the Rest – Outside receivers. I think we’re at the point where we have to accept that Tech doesn’t have “a guy” on the outside like Kittley had a year ago with Mitchell Tinsley. Jerand Bradley ($4,700), Loic Fouonji ($3,700) and Trey Cleveland ($4,800) all played 50% or more of the offensive snaps last week, and J.J. Sparkman ($3,800) is back on the depth chart which could muddy the waters further.
Injury Notes – WR Myles Price ($5,600) Price is back on the depth chart and probable to play, but no confirmation as of Saturday morning.
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