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Virginia Tech vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -13.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: NC St 26.5 – Va Tech 13
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Kaleb Smith ($4,800) Without looking at prices, I would’ve sided here with one of the Virginia Tech running backs. But as a two-touchdown dog, you figure the Hokies will need to throw it. Smith continues to lead the team with 42 targets on the year, 30 of which have come in the last month. Is Smith a must-play here? Absolutely not (more on that below).
Fade – QB Grant Wells ($6,200) Very slim chance here that Wells will be one of the two quarterbacks we select for our lineups Thursday. The Wolfpack are giving up 23.5 FPPG on the year to opposing QBs but are 9th nationally in pass play success rate. NC State is also third in the nation in interceptions this season, which does not bode well for a QB like Wells who has been extremely turnover-prone the last year and a half.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,000) Just about that time of the year when you start seeing some of the bad teams around college football get some underclassmen more playing time. 6-foot-4 freshman TE Dae’Quan Wright has been one of those options of the Hokies, now with 17 targets in the last three games. We know OC Tyler Bowen likes to involve his tight ends in the passing game where Nick Gallo ($3,700) and his 35 targets ranks second on the team.
Pivot Play – RB Malachi Thomas ($7,200) Tough sell to spend up for Thomas here against a defense that is stout against the run and its strength are the linebackers. Allowing just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But the Wolfpack have been leaky of late, allowing over 200+ to Florida State and 179 yards on the ground to Syracuse, falling to 67th in rush play success rate defensively. Do I believe Virginia Tech will have much success on the ground on Thursday? Not really, but Thomas is getting double-digit carries since his return to the field and is one of the Hokies’ two best offensive players. Thomas did get seven targets two weeks ago vs. Miami in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – Da’Wain Lofton ($3,900) The sophomore is a top two receiver for the Hokies behind Smith, and has been targeted more of late with 17 of his 30 targets coming in the last three games.
Injury Notes – WR Stephen Gosnell ($3,600) HC Brent Pry said this week that Gosnell is probable with a head injury. He was suited up vs. Miami but did not play.
North Carolina State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Houston ($5,400) Even if Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ends up playing, NC State will rotate its running backs, so we know 10+ carries are a near certainty for Houston on Thursday. The junior RB is also featured some in the passing game – tied for four on the team with 21 targets. Virginia Tech is allowing 18.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2022 and 70th in rush play success rate.
Fade – QBs. This was a bottom-tier passing offense even when Devin Leary was healthy. Jack Chambers ($6,000) is an FCS transfer that is undersized, turnover-prone and could split time with freshman MJ Morris ($5,200) – a 4-star recruit that is deemed the future of the program. Any risk of a potential split means I’m out. The Hokies have actually been ok on the backend too, allowing just 21.3 FPPG to opposing QBs and 12th in pass play success rate. Chambers is going to end up being a popular play because of his running ability, but I don’t like reading about a potential split here and will go against the grain.
Bargain Bin – WR Keyon Lesane ($3,400) The 5-foot-11 sophomore is now second on the team in targets with 30 – 21 of which have come in the last month alone – and is second on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Thayer Thomas ($6,000) Thomas is still the clear WR1 for the Wolfpack, leading the team with 27 receptions on 44 targets. Accounts for just 19% of the target share and 12 different players have caught at least one touchdown for NC State this season. Not sure it’s worth it to spend up for Thomas with all of the uncertainty at QB.
Best of the Rest – WR Darryl Jones ($4,100) His status is directly impacted by Devin Carter’s health. The Maryland transfer played 64 of 71 offensive snaps against Syracuse in Week 6, but I believe he’s downgraded to second-string if Carter is back and healthy.
Injury Notes – RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ($4,700) Stay tuned to the Discord on Thursday evening for status updates on Demie Sumo. Didn’t play against Syracuse two weeks ago but had the bye week to heal up. Haven’t located a status on him as of Wednesday morning but do expect him to play. He’s NC State’s most talented player on offense. WR Devin Carter ($5,500) did not play against Florida State. TE Trent Pennix ($3,000) has not played since Week 1, but some mention of a possible return.
Louisiana vs. Southern Mississippi
Point-Spread: S-Miss -1.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: S-Miss 22 – UL 20.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – QB Ben Wooldridge ($7,300) Why again didn’t Louisiana start this guy at the beginning of the season? 321 total yards and five touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State last week, giving Wooldridge 68 fantasy points scored in the last two games since taking over the starting job full-time. Tough matchup against Southern Miss where the Golden Eagles are allowing just 21.5 FPPG to opposing QBs and 30th in pass play success rate, but we’ll dive in below as to why he’s the easy top play for UL.
Fade – RB Chris Smith ($5,800) HC Michael Desormeaux said that Chris Smith will play on Thursday, and he is the RB1 when healthy. But this backfield is messier than when Billy Napier was around as Smith accounts for only 22% of the market share with four different running backs getting between 35-55 carries in 2022. Don’t see Louisiana gaining much traction on the ground against a USM defense that is allowing just 14.3 FPPG to opposing RBs and 23rd in success rate.
To gain access to all of theCFFsite’s exclusive DFS content, as well as Weekly Player Projections, click here to see membership options for the 2022 season.
If you are a Heisman Member of theCFFsite, click here to view full article.