Stanford @ Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -3.5
O/U Total: 53
Weather: 88 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Stanford:
Avoid the quarterbacks. There is no announced starter at this point between Jack West and Tanner McKee, and while the passing numbers have increased for the Cardinal (256 YPG over last three yrs), I’m not confident either player can hit those marks. Stanford had just seven passing TDs last season, and will likely be without their top WR this week in Michael Wilson who is nursing a foot injury. Not a recipe for success through the air. That’s not to say there isn’t talent at receiver where 6-foot-4 Brycen Tremayne and Elijah Higgins will be the top options. Tremayne closed last season on a high note with four catches in the last two weeks, and should fill the vacated role outside that Simi Fehoko occupied.
The days of Austin Hooper and Colby Parkinson appear long gone for Stanford with tight ends combining for just 13 receptions. If there is a reemergence of the tight end in the passing attack, former 4-star Benjamin Yurosek looks to be the guy. At 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, Yurosek was known for his pass-catching abilities coming out of high school, and looks to be the primary option here with backups Tucker Fisk playing defense and Lukas Ungar nursing an injury. $3k longshot.
Similar to last year, this offense will begin and end with running back Austin Jones who averaged 91 yards per game on the ground and accumulated nine touchdowns in six games. If you strive for rostering running backs in your lineups with volume, Jones is your guy, averaging nearly 25 touches a game between carries/receptions. Coaches made notion this offseason to them possibly splitting up the workload between Jones and backups Nathaniel Peat / E.J. Smith, but I don’t see it this week for what should be a competitive matchup.
Projected defensive SP+ puts Kansas State at 76th nationally and get back just 62 percent of their returning production on that side of the ball so Jones could eat here.
Kansas State:
Which Deuce Vaughn are we getting this week? There is a reason we preferred Vaughn for Bestball formats vs. redraft – four instances of 24 fantasy points or more AND four instances of single-digit fantasy performances. Risky proposition here as Kansas State brings back both Joe Ervin and Jacardia Wright who missed last season, and this is a system that’s averaged just 141 carries per year over the last three. Kansas State brings back all five offensive linemen, but faces a 3-man front from Stanford which has apparently given the Wildcats struggles over the years. Vaughn gives us the added bonus of his receiving talent out of the backfield, but it’s a risky proposition given his boom/bust potential.
Skylar Thompson is back in the saddle at QB after missing most of last season due to injury, and was off to a hot start with six touchdowns in two games. Priced down too at $6,600 for a dual-threat where the QB has averaged 11 carries a game over the last five seasons. Stanford is projected at 92nd in defensive SP+ and Thompson gets most of his weapons back from a year ago. While I like Thompson some this week, we steer clear of the receivers with just one 20+ point performance from anyone last season. Malik Knowles is a good player and should be the WR1 in 2021, but there are better options in pass-happier schemes in the $5k range. Chabastin Taylor, who led the Wildcats in targets in 2020, isn’t listed as a starter on the DC.
Briley Moore was a breakout last year at tight end with 22 receptions and three touchdowns, but our projected starter, Daniel Imatorbhebhe, was listed in an OR situation. There isn’t enough of a history of production here to consider a TE.
Tulane @ Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -31.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Weather: 88 degrees / 1% rain / 14 mph winds
Tulane:
With just two touchdowns in their implied total, facing a Top 15 SP+ defense on the road, and the interrupted practice plans due to Hurricane Ida, this really isn’t the week to invest in Tulane. Stud sophomore Michael Pratt is cheap enough at $6,300 and runs enough to keep him in the mix, but not the direction I’m going. With a new offensive coordinator in Chip Long, we should see Pratt throw the ball more this season, and if he maintains his 12-carry per game average, he’ll be rosterable down the road in a more favorable matchup.
We had a surprise at running back with Cameron Carroll being listed as the starter on the depth chart over Tyjae Spears, but both will see plenty of reps throughout the season. Both Long and head coach Willie Fritz have an extensive history of using multiple running backs within their systems, but this isn’t the week with a negative game script + Oklahoma’s Top 10 rush defense from a year ago. Again, lets look at Tulane later on in the year here with four offensive linemen back from a group that was 13th nationally in line yards created. If choosing one, Carroll gets the easy nod given his pricing and listing on the depth chart.
Duece Watts and Jha’Quan Jackson are both back and should dominate the target share once again. The two combined for 14 of the team’s 21 touchdowns through the air, and will benefit from an offensive scheme that will throw it likely 5-7 more times per game on average. Jackson also serves as the team’s primary punt return and did have a rushing touchdown so his versatility could lead to additional fantasy production. Tight end usage is inconsequential.
Oklahoma:
To spend up for Spencer Rattler or not? Leaning towards yes here, as there really aren’t many great punt plays at the position, and Rattler is someone where I don’t think you have to pair him with any receiver with the targets so spread out. Looking back the last few seasons, Oklahoma has stepped on the gas against inferior opponents with Jalen Hurts putting up 259 yards and three touchdowns in 2019, and Rattler tossing four TDs last year against South Dakota. I think Tulane is a formidable enough opponent where we see Rattler play well into the third quarter, and the implied total of 50 is more than enough. I’m more inclined to do this on DK than FD with some of the added games to their Main Slate.
Eric Gray and Kennedy Brooks will handle the backfield duties for the Sooners and this will all but likely be a split workload. Likelihood is that both find the end-zone on Saturday, so is it worth it to spend down on Brooks who is $1k cheaper? Good news is six scholarship running backs from last year’s team are no longer on it, so nobody else enters the equation here until the 4th quarter. Questions remain along the offensive line replacing multiple starters.
At receiver, while injuries are unfortunate, we also have some clarity with Theo Wease expected to be out multiple weeks with a foot injury. That leaves former 5-star Jadon Haselwood manning one outside spot, and an OR situation opposite him with Arkansas transfer Mike Woods battling freshman standout Mario Williams who is min salary on BOTH sites. Lincoln Riley has shown his willingness to play his best players, regardless if their first year on campus or not as we saw with Marvin Mims a year ago, and Williams has been making plays since back in the spring. We get caught up sometimes in being cute with $3k plays, but Williams will see plenty of time on Saturday. As for Mims, while not overly expensive at $7,700 on DK, I don’t feel the need to pair him with Rattler given his inconsistent snap counts last year. Mims and Deuce Vaughn are mirror images of each other in terms of fantasy production…slate breaker or bust, no in-between.
Tight end Austin Stogner was on pace to challenge Wease for the team lead in targets with 38 in just eight games, but injuries held him out the last two games of the regular season. Productive tight end, but limited upside, having not scored more than 16 fantasy points in any week. I’d rather spend down and roster Super Mario instead.
Western Michigan @ Michigan
Point-Spread: Mich -17
O/U Total: 67
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Western Michigan:
I’ll be totally honest – even as a fan, I don’t have a clue what to expect from the Michigan defense Saturday. They were atrocious last year, but hired a new DC and implementing a new 3-4. Could go either way honestly. We are getting three touchdowns somewhere from this Western Michigan offense, though, and have a pretty good idea where it will come from.
Of the receivers, I prefer Jaylen Hall over Skyy Moore personally. Not just because of salary, but because I think it’s a great pivot where most will focus on Moore with his higher target totals. Hall is perfectly suited to fill D’Wayne Eskridge’s role as the team’s deep threat, averaging nearly 27 yards per catch and an aDOT of 24. Starting CB Vincent Gray struggled mightily last year in one-on-one coverage defending the deep ball vs. outside receivers – remember what Michigan State’s Ricky White did to him? WR3 is up for grabs here, but I believe Tennessee-Chattanooga transfer Bryce Nunnelly will fill the outside role opposite Hall. He had over 150 receptions in two years there. Tight ends are no longer a part of this offense.
WMU brings back four starters along the offensive line and they were outstanding last year during MAC play, ranking 25th nationally in line yards created. Michigan does have some questions along the offensive front, but have generally succeeded in the past vs. G5 opponents. I’m fading La’Darius Jefferson and that WMU backfield which could be a RBBC with Sean Tyler and Jaxson Kincaide back.
Kaleb Eleby as a second quarterback will be tempting. With our options on this slate for DK, I’m mostly looking to spend up at quarterback and find deals elsewhere, but if WMU is to score on Saturday, it will be via Eleby and his receivers against Michigan’s questionable secondary. I don’t think he’s completely off the table here
Michigan:
Surprised by the 42 implied total for Michigan this week, but just reading up on their opponent a bit more, I think WMU could have their struggles on defense not only on Saturday, but throughout the year. Problem is we aren’t getting any discounts with Michigan players despite their lack of production last season.
Expect a three-man committee at running back with Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum handling the duties, and 5-star FR Donovan Edwards getting some run late as well. While I still believe Haskins will lead the way Saturday, Corum has been a standout all offseason, transforming his body by packing on weight and will see a significant amount of playing time Saturday. Limited upside given this is a full-fledged RBBC, but Corum should undoubtedly surpass his $3,600 salary in production. There is also a growing confidence around the program that the offensive line will be better than anticipated.
I can’t get on board with Ronnie Bell at $7,000 after topping double-digit fantasy points just twice last season. At least four catches in every game, but he should be in the $5k range. If Corum has been the No. 1 standout of the offseason, junior Cornelius Johnson would be No. 2 among the skill positions, but even he is priced up to $6,700 on DK. For GPPs, I think you’ll see low ownership here, and these two should distance themselves as the top targets in the passing game.
Think Brian Griese when you look at Cade McNamara. Or the opposite of Joe Milton for a recent comparison. Won’t wow anyone with physical attributes but he’s accurate throwing the ball and makes his teammates better. $8,100 is just too pricey for a QB that doesn’t run at all, and an offense that should favor the run to start the year. I’ll pass.
Penn State @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wisc -5.5
O/U Total: 50
Weather: 66 degrees / 9% rain / 7 mph winds
Penn State:
I think this Penn State offense will be vastly improved from a year ago with new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, but I’m staying away in DFS this week against a Top 5 defense in Wisconsin. Start at running back where Noah Cain looks to be the clear-cut starter here, but there’s a ton of depth in the backfield with Baylor transfer John Lovett and Keyvone Lee. With quarterback Sean Clifford also dipping into the rushing distribution, I’m avoiding the Penn State backfield.
As for Clifford, he’s priced down this week compared to where he was a year ago at this time in the $7k range, and won’t have to deal with any quarterback rotation as he did a year ago with Will Levis. This scheme has never been shy about involving the QBs in the run game, averaging 124 carries and nine rushing TDs the last three seasons, so I do really like Clifford as a potential DFS option later in the year. This isn’t the matchup for him.
Passing attack will once again center around Jahan Dotson and slot receiver Parker Washington. Outside receivers have been the primaries in a Yurcich led offense which bodes well for his outlook in 2021, and Dotson was a slate-breaker a time or two last season. Wisconsin’s pass rush and press coverage were points of emphasis in the offseason, and the Badgers have now forced a turnover in 13-straight games. That doesn’t bode well for Clifford or this passing game. Again…like the Penn State offense, just not Saturday.
Wisconsin:
It’s been expected the last few weeks from reading up on Wisconsin that we should not expect a bell-cow in the backfield this season. Jalen Berger said as much recently speaking to the media that he expects him and Chez Mellusi to share the load this season. The warning signs regarding Berger’s build at 6-foot, 203 pounds, came true as some didn’t think he could handle a Jonathan Taylor-like load. Turns out that might wind up being the case. On the plus side, both Mellusi and Berger are expected to get more looks as pass-catchers which adds to their value. Odds would side with us looking at a 15-10 split in terms of rushing attempts between the two, unless Mellusi gets rolling against a Top 30 rush defense in Penn State. Spending $5k given the historical production of Wisconsin running backs might be worth it, regardless of the opponent.
Starting QB Graham Mertz was abysmal last from a fantasy standpoint outside of the opener vs. Illinois. Penn State’s defense is far better. Wisconsin will have their full complement of pass-catchers on Saturday with tight end Jake Ferguson healthy, and both Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor returning after missing much of last season. As much as it’s indicated the Badgers will throw it more in 2021, this is still a run-based scheme that will top 550 combined carries on the year. No interest in the Wisconsin passing game.
Fresno State @ Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -20.5
O/U Total: 64
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Fresno State:
We are expected to get around three touchdowns from Fresno State on Saturday, but a tall task against a defense that features a Top 5 NFL Draft pick in Kayvon Thibodeaux and a Top 25 projected defense. Jake Haener and the passing game should benefit, though, from two Oregon starters being suspended in the secondary with DJ James and Jamal Hill expected to be out. Is that enough to sway me into starting Haener? I’m still leaning towards spending up at QB on DK so probably not here, and would only do so if I’m looking to stack the Fresno passing game.
As for who to target there, Jalen Cropper is the obvious name and this will be the cheapest he is all season at $6,100. Six different receivers saw 25+ snaps last week against UConn with Cropper only seeing five total targets but that had a lot to do with the game situation. Against Oregon, I think that will get pared down to four with Josh Kelly, Ty Jones and Keric Wheatfall part of the primary grouping. Tight end Raymond Pauwels Jr. had three targets and a touchdown, but early indications are that the tight ends will be kept at the LOS to help with the Oregon pass rush.
Fresno State is reportedly still trying to figure out their starting offensive line combination, and with Oregon’s strength being the defensive front, I don’t have a ton of confidence Ronnie Rivers can give us a big game. I’d rather start a Deuce Vaughn or Brian Robinson at RB and save a few bucks.
Oregon:
Think what you want about Anthony Brown and his perceived talent, but I trust Joe Moorhead and his work with dual-threat quarterbacks. On average, 149 carries per season from a Moorhead QB1, around 12.4 rushing attempts per game, and we saw late last year how this staff was willing to give Brown looks in the red-zone running the football. Name him ‘Player X’ instead of Anthony Brown. Would you start Player X at QB if expecting 14 carries from him in a game where his team is expected to score 42 points? Yes, would be your answer on most occasions. Not saying Brown is a lock, but you get my point.
C.J. Verdell and Travis Dye should dominate the rushing volume this year with no clear-cut RB3 behind them. Verdell is appealing at $6k with Oregon bringing back all five starters that ranked 37th in line yards created, but the staff has an infatuation for Dye for some reason unbeknownst to me. Being 100 percent healthy at $6k, this might be the best time all year to roster Verdell.
Avoiding the WRs entirely outside of $3k bargain bin option Troy Franklin who was listed as a starter on the team depth chart as a true freshman. No Oregon receiver had more than two receiving touchdowns last season and leading wideout Jaylon Redd had just 22 percent of the target share. Spencer Webb at $3,400 might be the most intriguing here outside of Franklin as a 6-foot-6 weapon in the middle of the field. Webb missed much of last year, but tight ends combined for six receiving TDs so they’re often used in the passing attack.
Alabama @ Miami
Point-Spread: Ala -19.5
O/U Total: 61
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Alabama:
Did I learn my lesson from last year to fade John Metchie III who did nothing but disappoint in a secondary role to DeVonta Smith? Metchie III is the likely alpha of the group for 2021, but I’m only playing him in a game stack with Bryce Young considering his pricing as the highest receiver on the slate. If looking to save some dollars, I’m siding with another Alabama wideout as one of my favorite plays of the weekend in Jameson Williams. Buzz has been palpable regarding the Ohio State transfer ever since the summer, and fits the perfect role as a deep-threat opposite Metchie with his 4.3 speed. The Hurricanes did add a Georgia transfer at cornerback, but this will be mostly the same group in the secondary that allowed opposing QBs to complete 63 percent of their throws last year with 20 touchdowns allowed in 11 games.
OR situation in the slot with Slade Bolden sharing the spot with prized FR JoJo Earle who is considered to potentially be the next Jaylen Waddle for the Tide. Both are reasonably priced on DK to where you could consider multiple Alabama receivers in a stack with Young. Hard fade on tight end Jahleel Billingsley with him being in Nick Saban’s doghouse at the moment. $3k punt play Cameron Latu has been a star of the last two spring games for Alabama, and new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has a length history of utilizing the position in his scheme. Worthy of consideration.
Our projections this week call for Desmond Ridder over Bryce Young, but is $300 worth the spend up to the Cincinnati QB when its less than a point difference? Sounds as though the expectation is for Miami to look towards stopping the run in order to force the first-year starting QB a new-“ish” collection of receivers beat them through the air. That bodes well for Young if that ends up being the case against a susceptible secondary as we just mentioned. Young is also a dynamic athlete who rushed for 1,000 total yards in his high school career so he can threaten a defense in multiple ways.
I expect to see four running backs get carries between Brian Robinson, Jase McClellan, Roydell Williams and Trey Sanders. How you select these RBs is dependent on how you see this game playing out. Najee Harris rushed for just one touchdown on 20 combined carries against Louisville and Duke in season-opening blowout victories between 2018-19. Should it be a rout, I’m not sure Robinson can hit his salary. On the other hand, Miami’s run defense remains a major question mark heading into 2021 after allowing 174 yards per game last season.
Miami:
Bad matchup for all around here with the Hurricanes as Alabama has a dominant front seven and experience secondary, and will be one of the top two defenses nationally along with Clemson. I’m avoiding the backfield at all costs here with a likely split between Cam’Ron Harris, Donald Chaney Jr. and Jaylan Knighton. Chaney Jr. was the hot name in the spring, but hasn’t been 100 percent in fall camp, keeping him behind Harris on the depth chart.
D’Eriq King is back and fully healthy from all accounts after suffering a knee injury in the bowl game, even adding some speed and cutting some weight according to teammates. That is hopefully the case because King ran the ball eight or more times on 11 different occasions last season, and he may need them facing arguably the best pair of pass rushers in the country. Where Alabama’s secondary was inexperienced in 2020, that’s not the case this year as each projected starter logged at least 290 snaps.
If there is a place where King can attack, it’s the second outside spot opposite Josh Jobe where Bama will have a first-year starter. That’s potentially a matchup for Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo or breakout candidate Keyshawn Smith could exploit. Smith is min salary and the likely man matched up with Jalyn Armour-Davis. Mike Harley is the WR1 as is usually the case in OC Rhett Lashlee’s system after tallying seven TDs in the last seven games. Positive game-script likely forthcoming for Harley and he was the far-and-away team leader in targets last year with 84 (next closest was 56). TE Will Mallory is a future NFL Draft pick and produced double-digit fantasy points every time he filled in for the injured Brevin Jordan. $3,600 on DraftKings is pretty enticing for a scheme that features tight ends extensively.
Miami (Ohio) @ Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -22.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 2% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami (Ohio):
Once again, in the essence of time, not going to do a deep dive into Miami (Ohio) as information is difficult to come by with no team beat writer, and a low game total of 14. Rumors of a possible QB battle with Brett Gabbert being pushed by A.J. Mayer make this situation avoidable at all costs. I can’t for the life of me locate a RedHawks depth chart so I’m unsure how the RB room will shake out. Conventional wisdom would indicate Jaylon Bester and Ty Shelton are back in the saddle after missing last season due to injury. The duo combined for over 1,300 rushing yards in 2019, with Bester notching 14 rushing scores. That’s bound to come down in 2021, and this was the 13th best run defense in the country in Cincinnati. Jack Sorenson is the only WR of major importance here, but is realistically priced out for us at $7,300. Only other viable option in the passing game would be former Penn State transfer Mac Hippenhammer. Not a lot of interest with the RedHawks on Saturday.
Cincinnati:
I’ve maintained the same stance all offseason that we are about to see a Michael Warren-like season from Jerome Ford and anticipate 200+ carries is a lock. No more Gerrid Doaks around so the rotation that pissed us all off last year should be gone. Backup Charles McClelland is a better third-down option as a pass-catcher and shouldn’t threaten the RB1 for carries like we saw a year ago. Miami (Ohio) does bring back 86 percent of their returning defensive production from a group that led the MAC in run defense, but this will be a different animal.
Which Desmond Ridder do we see with Cincinnati being a three-touchdown favorite? With Ford dominating the backfield touches, I still thing we see some regression from Ridder’s 12 rushing touchdowns last season which were an outlier of sorts for this system. Head coach Luke Fickell said the team has adopted the phrase “Let It Fly” to play with no hesitation. Apparently, the staff has been working towards stretching the field more via the pass this summer, and Miami (Ohio) did struggle defending the pass. Because of his salary, I’d say Ridder is a GPP option only.
Primary receivers remain the same with Alec Pierce, Michael Young and star tight end Josh Whyle. Slot receiver will be shared between Tyler Scott and Tre Tucker. Whyle is my favorite of the bunch given his salary ($4,600) and held the team lead in TDs. Pierce is the potential slate-breaker of the group with an 18.5 YPC average and aDOT of 15.1 but has had trouble staying healthy, and can’t rationalize spending up to his salary.
Marshall @ Navy
Point-Spread: Marsh -2.5
O/U Total: 47
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Marshall
Indications all offseason were that this would be a committee approach to start between Rasheen Ali, Sheldon Evans and Knowledge McDaniel, but this looks like a spot where we need to strongly consider Ali at just $3,300. Marshall returns three starters along the offensive line that ranked 12th in the country in line yards and a PFF grade of 87.7. Ali was the leading rusher in the Marshall spring game with 64 yards and a TD, and while he is listed as an OR on the depth chart, his name is on the top line. Indicates he may get the start? While I tend to be concerned with a new coaching staff, the offensive coordinator under Doc Holliday remained in place so there should be some continuity.
My website partner Joe DiSalvo continues to believe that the turnover at running back will lead to increased passing attempts this season from QB Grant Wells. Don’t think there is any chance we see the 41 pass attempts per that we saw at Sam Houston State in 2017 from OC Tim Cramsey, but more than the 27 attempts per last season from Wells isn’t a stretch with most of the top pass-catchers all returning. Projected game total doesn’t suggest we will see a performance from Wells that is worthy of being in our lineups and you always risk the threat of not seeing your player on the field much against Navy’s triple-option offense.
Last year’s leading receiver is back in Corey Gammage who had 35-409-4 on a team-high 56 targets. Presents some matchup problems at 6-foot-4. Talik Keaton (17-175-1) and tight end Xavier Gaines (28-404-4) would be my secondary options if looking to pair Wells with a pass-catcher.
Navy:
If we had one Navy quarterback, I’d absolutely consider them this week. Alas, we still have a raging battle between Xavier Arline and Tai Lavatai. Strong chance we see both guys get playing time, rendering them ineffective unless someone shows out. If somehow we get indication that it will be one QB for the entirety of the game, 20+ carries is a mortal lock and they immediately enter the conversation as a startable player.
Chance Warren is the team’s top slot-back, but the position in this scheme only gets about three touches per game. The team’s starting B-back, Isaac Ruoss, would be our secondary option aside from QB where the seven-year average is 140-801-8. $4,300 is relatively cheap, but not low enough to warrant much consideration against the No. 2 total defense in the country last season in Marshall that brings eight starters back.
Receivers…nope.
Indiana @ Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -4
O/U Total: 46
Weather: 74 degrees / 4% rain / 8 mph winds
Indiana:
We will get the easy one out of the way first – Stephen Carr is not a viable option at $6,400 against what could be the best defense in the Big Ten in 2021. The Hoosiers finished 114th in rushing last season, averaging just 3.13 YPC, and this could wind up as a split backfield between Carr and Tim Baldwin. Remove him from the player pool.
All four starters are back in the Iowa secondary that finished 34th in pass defense last season, allowing just nine touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Tough task for Michael Penix Jr. who will be 100 percent healthy following the ACL injury last season. Just not a slate I’m targeting him with an implied total of 22 and facing a hostile road environment in Iowa City.
At receiver, the focus will be on WR1 Ty Fryfogle, and for good reason, but don’t discount slot receiver D.J. Matthews who transferred in from Florida State. Just $3,600, Matthews will start in the slot where 100 targets have become the norm over the last several seasons. Great value play for a PPR format like DraftKings. TE1 Peyton Hendershot is back as the third option in the passing game, accounting for 23 receptions and four TDs on 35 targets.
Iowa:
No thanks to Spencer Petras who topped 20 fantasy points just once in eight games. His 30 passing attempts per game were right on par with what we’ve seen from Iowa QBs the last four years, but managed just a 57 percent completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt. I do think he can support the production of at least one pass-catcher this season, most notably receiver Tyrone Tracy who is marginally priced at $5,000. Multiple Iowa beat writers have said Tracy can challenge for 60 receptions this season. True FR Keagan Johnson is an extreme long-shot at $3k, but impressive of a first-year player to make the starting lineup. TE1 Sam LaPorta is the only other realistic pass-catcher to roster outside Tracy, finishing first on the team in receptions and targets.
Running back Tyler Goodson is always in play as one of the best backs in the country, though this is a tough matchup vs. an Indiana defense that finished 34th nationally against the run and brings back 85 percent of their production from last year. Goodson averaged 20 carries per game over the last five weeks and there is no clear-cut RB2 behind him so I’d suspect he gets close to that per-week volume in 2021 as well. Some turnover on the offensive line with just two starters back so the Hawkeyes might take a step back this year.
West Virginia @ Maryland
Point-Spread: WV -2.5
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
West Virginia:
More of the same in 2021 for the West Virginia offense meaning the Leddie Brown show once again. Not always effective as a team, averaging just 3.7 YPC on the season, but Brown was not at fault as he topped five yards a pop with nine rushing touchdowns. Best part of rostering Leddie – 23 touches per game last season and at least 18 rushing attempts in all but two games. Little clarity with the RB2 should me Leddie gets a similar workload in 2021 and will face a Maryland defense that allowed over 230 total rush yards in all but one of their five games.
Last season’s numbers indicate Maryland was very good at defending the pass, holding opposing QBs to a 56 percent completion rated and just six TDs in five games, good for 25th in the country. Sophomore cornerback Tarheeb Still led the country with 2.0 passes defended per game. Doesn’t bode well for QB Jarret Doege who topped 23 fantasy points just once last season. Crazy to realize that when Doege averaged 37 passing attempts per game which was good for 8th in the country. Negative rushing yards will do that to a quarterback.
84 percent of the team’s receiving production is back from last year, and no receiver had more than 16 percent of the target share. Winston Wright led the team in targets (63) and was extremely efficient with a 73 percent conversion rate. Exact opposite for Bryce Ford-Wheaton who converted just 48 percent of his targets, but was targeted at least four times in every game played. The intriguing name here is Sam James at $3,700 who, from all accounts, had a resurgence this offseason after suffering a case of the dropsies. This is a player with a 69-catch season on his resume, so he’s proven to be capable. Tight ends are a non-factor.
Maryland:
I’m intrigued by starting RB Tayon Fleet-Davis today as he steps into the RB1 role where Jake Funk had tremendous success last season, averaging 21 FPPG. Fleet-Davis is a talented player that’s been set back by injury/off-field issues, but is the clear-cut RB1 and an excellent receiver out of the backfield as well where Funk was also effective last season. West Virginia presents a tough challenge with one of the best defensive linemen in the country in Dante Sills, and a defense that ranked in the Top 25 against the run last season. Funk’s 17 touches per game last season were an anomaly for a running back in Mike Locksley’s system, but there isn’t an established RB2 here. I think TFD could get most of the backfield work, and I doubt his ownership is above 5 percent in larger GPPs.
Taulia Tagovailoa is back for his second year as the starter, and has an array of talented pass-catchers in Dontay Demus, Rakim Jarrett and Jeshaun Jones who can cause nightmares for opposing D-coordinators. Maryland also loves their depth with Brian Cobbs and Darryl Jones who will rotate in and out. This makes for a great Week 1 matchup against a West Virginia secondary that finished No. 1 in the nation in pass defense, allowing just 159 yards per game and three starters returning. The unpredictable nature of Tagovailoa facing this kind of defense makes him a GPP play only, and probably a spot I avoid him at cost.
Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State
Point-Spread: MSU -23
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Louisiana Tech:
Low total here (15) for a Louisiana Tech offense that has fallen off hard in recent years and will have brand new pieces at both quarterback and running back. Could be in for a rough day vs. a projected Top 30 defense in Mississippi State who shut down the run in 2020, allowing just 3.6 YPC.
The Bulldogs still like to pass it quite a bit, averaging 35.7 pass attempts per and do get an upgrade at quarterback in former West Virginia transfer Austin Kendall who began his career at Oklahoma. MSU did allow 263 yards per game last season through the air but that came against a rugged SEC schedule. I’d like to see something from Kendall and the La Tech offense before investing here. 106 vacated targets from last year, so we could see increased usage from guys like Smoke Harris, Isaiah Graham and Griffin Hebert who are all below $5k. Tre Harris was the surprise name listed on the top line of the depth chart and is min priced as he had just one target last year. I like the added value Smoke can provide as a runner where Tech used him on jet sweeps in the red-zone, but trips inside the 20 will probably be hard to come by today.
Running back should be a committee here with Appalachian State transfer Marcus Williams, Greg Garner and Vanderbilt transfer Keyon Henry-Brooks who was a surprise third-stringer on the initial depth chart. Tech’s offensive line was brutal last season and return just two starters. Miss State’s dominance in defending the run last year makes this a situation to avoid completely.
Mississippi State:
Everyone and their moms are going to be using the Mississippi State receivers this week with their absurdly-low pricing. I, for one, am not scared by the OR situation between Austin Williams and WR1 Jaden Walley. Senior vs. a sophomore. We know who the WR1 is and I think we will get some lower ownership for Walley as a result. I see where it makes sense to save, though, and target Williams who had at least three catches in every game last season. Washington State transfer Jamire Calvin mans the other slot receiver position, but I like some salary savings elsewhere, in particular California transfer Makai Polk who was arguably the team’s best receiver during fall camp. With a possible suspension looming for Malik Heath for his role in the Tulsa brawl in the bowl game, Polk should get peppered with targets on the outside and is dirt cheap at $3,900. Will monitor pregame if Heath is eligible this week or not, but with the Tulsa players getting suspended – which was announced pregame – good chance we see the same here. Leach will always rotate between 8-9 receivers so expect to see some of Lideatrick Grffin, Rufus Harvey and Caleb Ducking as well, but to a lesser extent.
As for who will be slinging the pill, we have another OR situation that we will do our due diligence pregame, but have all the confidence that it will be Will Rogers for the entirety. 295+ passing yards in three of his final four regular season games last year and at least 40 passing attempts in four of the final five weeks. Tech does return 90 percent of their defensive production from a year ago and held opponents to just 229 yards per game through the air.
Snap counts were almost entirely even between Jo’Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson towards the end of the season, and we don’t roster these players for their rushing volume. Marks averaged 13 FPPG on DraftKings as he finished second on the team in targets (69) and first in receptions (62), but never accounted for more than 20 fantasy points because his snap counts were limited with the presence of Johnson. I’m out on these two in GPPs because of the limited upside.
Northern Iowa @ Iowa State
Point-Spread: IaSt -29.5
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Northern Iowa:
If a player from Northern Iowa is the slate-breaker, so be it. Must put our resources in the Main Slate towards FBS teams.
Iowa State:
Unfortunately, we don’t have an example from 2020 as to how head coach Matt Campbell prefers to rotate his players in/out during a blowout situation which this looks to be as a 30-point favorite. Last time they faced Northern Iowa, this was a three-point win for the Cyclones in triple overtime so that doesn’t help us either. Week 3 of 2019, Iowa State blew out Louisiana-Monroe by 52 points and no player had more than nine carries that day. Not always a perfect predictive measure, but I think that kind of evidence takes Breece Hall firmly out of the running as the highest priced running back of the slate. Backup Jirehl Brock, a former 4-star like Hall, had a great offseason from all accounts and should be able to pay off his $4,000 salary, but that’s not someone with a high amount of upside.
While Hall had a quiet performance that day vs. ULM, QB Brock Purdy was the star of the show with six total touchdowns! Iowa State’s passing attack was no good last year, seeing dips in nearly every category. Does Matt Campbell look to get some momentum in that area for what’s to come down the road? Purdy scored 20 or more fantasy points in 8-of-10 games last season so I believe he gives us a high floor at $7,900.
Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar should once again be the top pass-catchers in the offense, accounting for nearly 50 percent of the team’s receiving production in 2020. Don’t see a ton of GPP upside with either player despite the significant amount of market share, as the two combined for just one performance last season of 20 fantasy points or more. Tarique Milton ($4,100) and true freshman Jaylin Noel ($3,000) are extreme longshots.
Louisiana @ Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -8.5
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 93 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Louisiana:
Another team we will be investing heavily in down the road, just not sure how much exposure we want in Week 1. Chris Smith and Emani Bailey take over a backfield with 66 percent of the team’s rushing production gone from last year with the graduation of Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas. Smith will lead the way, but Napier has always gone with a committee approach where the RB2 has averaged 802 yards and seven touchdowns per season. Might not be applicable this week, but keep that in mind down the road. Still, at $3,900 with all five offensive linemen returning, Bailey is someone to keep in the potential player pool. Smith is relatively cheap as well at $5,700, though Texas’ strength on defense last season was stopping the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Not sure if that transitions into 2021 with a brand new staff.
Levi Lewis is a marginal quarterback that I’ll be fading most every week. According to PFF, Lewis only completed 56.3 percent of his passes that traveled 10-19 yards in the air, throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions on those throws; on throws 20 yards or more down the field, Lewis was a dismal 19-for-65 passing for 592 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. We are projected to get three touchdowns somewhere, but the talent on this offense resides at running back. At receiver, the Cajuns will use a bunch of them with no player accounting for more than 17 percent of the target share. Kyren Lacy and Jalen Williams were tied for the team lead in receiving TDs with four and should pace the group again, but UL will mix in Peter LeBlanc, Dontae Fleming, Errol Rogers Jr., and others on a consistent basis.
Texas:
What to do with Bijan Robinson, who has probably his lowest salary of the entire season this week at $7,400. The issue is not the UL defense that does bring back 10 starters, though they were mediocre last season against the run, finishing 88th nationally. Issue apparently is the heat where it appears it could get up to 98 degrees by this afternoon. According to the 247 beat writer, his source is telling him that Texas is “thankful there are three running backs in that room who can help.” That means work for Keilan Robinson and Roschon Johnson today as well, and we might not see 20 carries from Bijan. Thankfully, Robinson is good enough to pay off that salary even with limited touches, averaging eight yards a carry.
Everything I read points to Texas wanting to pound the rock this week vs. UL with the green quarterback situation between Hudson Card and Casey Thompson. Steve Sarkisian will give the nod to Card, but said Thompson could see PT as well. Taking on the No. 2 pass defense in the country from a year ago, I’m staying far away from this.
Even though I’m off the quarterbacks, I’m not totally out on WR Jordan Whittington or true FR Xavier Worthy at their pricing. Someone has to catch the football, and Whittington has been the projected WR1 for much of the offseason now. For him, its all about health. Joshua Moore at $6,000 on DK is a pass for me.