Wake Forest @ North Carolina
Point-Spread: UNC -2.5
O/U Total: 77
Weather: 50 degrees / 23% rain / 14 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Here we go with another expected shootout as the 76.5 total implies. Does this matchup live up to the DFS hype or crash and burn our game stack lineups like Ole Miss / Tennessee and Ole Miss / Bama did to us earlier in the year? If this is anything like last season’s matchup between these two teams, we are in for a show as there was over 1,300 (!!!) yards of total offense. Sam Hartman has obvious upside here with the 32-point fantasy projection this week, but worth $10k to roster him as the highest-priced player on the slate? His rushing stats the last month have led to that pricing with five rushing scores in that time period, and Hartman has been near-perfect throwing the ball the last two weeks with eight touchdowns, zero interceptions and over 70 percent completion rate. UNC is middle of the pack in the ACC in pass defense, but is allowing 29.2 FPPG this season to opposing QBs and the Heels have given up three 40+ point performances. Granted, two of those were to Jordan Travis and Jeff Sims who just gashed UNC with their legs. Hartman is a good athlete but not at that level, so we’ll need to likely see the 500+ passing yards similar to what Brennan Armstrong did a few weeks back.
I mentioned this strategy last week with Hartman and it worked out by playing the quarterback, but not pairing him with any receivers. Would I go back to this strategy again? I think I’d want either A.T. Perry or Jaquarii Roberson paired alongside Hartman this week, but these two essentially split targets each week which suppresses their value ever-so slightly. Two other options to look at in the Wake Forest passing game are Taylor Morin or Ke’Shawn Williams who are much more attainable at $3,800 and $4,200, respectively. Morin is on the field a ton, sometimes playing more snaps than either Perry or Roberson, but his production hasn’t been there with under 25 yards receiving in the last three games. Of course, you could always get the 122-yard outburst he had against Louisville in Week 5 because of how explosive this offense is. Still think he’s playing out of position as an outside receiver. For those that play CFF, I’ve mentioned Williams as a top-end dynasty add as he’ll take over the slot receiver position next year when Roberson is in the NFL. I’m tempted to play him this week as a pivot to Morin as Williams has found the end-zone the last two weeks, but I don’t see him getting more playing time in what should be a competitive contest.
Prices make the WF running game enticing, particularly in game stacks, but this is a three-man rotation between Christian Beal-Smith, Christian Turner and Justice Ellison with no distinct leader. And with Hartman now vulturing touchdowns in the red-zone, our interest decreases even more. Against Syracuse in Week 6, there was some separation with CBS seeing 17 attempts vs. just five for both Turner / Ellison, so if you’re leaning one direction, it would be him.
North Carolina:
Unlike Wake Forest, we know exactly where the production is coming from on the North Carolina side. Sam Howell is the highest-projected player on the slate for us, and its much to do with that rushing upside that this UNC staff is finally letting him showcase this season. Howell now has four 100-yard rushing performances this year, and 200 rushing yards in the last two games alone. Double-digit carries every single week this season so no reason he shouldn’t hit that number again. Guess it makes sense since UNC really doesn’t have a RB2 this season like they did last year, so Howell is scooping up those carries. The Wake secondary does a good job at limiting big plays, 43rd in Pass Play Explosiveness defensively, and are limiting opposing QBs to just 59 percent completion rate, but the Deacs are also 109th in Pass Play EPA and 125th in Defensive Success rate vs. the Pass. Howell should have a day here.
Josh Downs is obviously 1A both for North Carolina and receivers on this slate. Do we have interest elsewhere is the big question for me. We saw Antoine Green have a big of a breakout last week against North Carolina with 5-83-1 on six targets. The spot opposite Green on the outside is now vacated with Emery Simmons deciding to enter the transfer portal this late in the year. 6-foot-2 sophomore Justin Olson started opposite Green last week, but had just two catches for 25 yards. Min priced at $3k and is a former 3-star recruit, but it’s not like Simmons’ spot was putting up numbers prior to the transfer – just 11 receptions. Basically, a mystery both ways as to possible outcomes if wanting to roster Olson, but he will be on the field quite a bit as UNC really doesn’t rotate in any other receivers besides the top three.
Will Ty Chandler be the forgotten man on Saturday with so much focus on the quarterbacks? Healthy projection this week for him at 19.3 fantasy points and this should be a major advantage for the UNC run game based on the advanced metrics where the Heels are 7th in Rush Play Success Rate and 9th in Line Yards, taking on a WF defense that is 114th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively, 105th in Rush Play Explosiveness and 120th in Defensive Line Yards. Chandler isn’t getting as many targets in the passing game as we thought prior to the year, with just eight receptions total in eight games, and backup D.J. Jones is really starting to cut into his workload with around 10 attempts per game over the last three weeks.
SMU @ Memphis
Point-Spread: SMU -4.5
O/U Total: 70.5
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
SMU:
Tanner Mordecai feels like the player I’ll be targeting the most this week on DK with his pricing at just $9k and a projection that’s higher than some quarterbacks priced above him. I’d say that I could employ a similar strategy to last week with Hartman in that I don’t feel the need to pair the QB – WRs in a game-stack but each of the wideouts are also priced down with Danny Gray sitting highest at $6,200. Simply put, you could make the argument for Gray, Rashee Rice or Reggie Roberson Jr. this week and I couldn’t debate you. All solid plays that will see between 6-10 targets every game – we just don’t know exactly who will be the primary beneficiary that given week. Hence, I still don’t mind the strategy of just rolling Mordecai naked either. Tight end Grant Calcaterra is the cheapest of the group at $4k and does have 10 catches on 16 targets in the last two weeks. Memphis is allowing just 1.0 FPPG to opposing tight ends this year, though, which is one of the best marks in the country.
Don’t think we can reasonably consider Ulysses Bentley IV this week as he suffered yet another injury against Houston that was just totally avoidable. SMU clearly misses Bentley’s big-play ability, and Tre Siggers is nowhere near as talented, but the former North Texas transfer has been serviceable in his place, averaging around 17 FPPG with at least one score in the last four weeks. Expectation for me is that Siggers gets the majority of the work again on Saturday. That bodes well for his projection, and you can run on the Memphis defense that is 63rd in Rush Play Success Rate.
Memphis:
All about who the quarterback is here with starter Seth Henigan remaining a game-time decision due to injury that kept him out two weeks ago against UCF. 247 Memphis writers says according to that update from Ryan Silverfield indicates to him that “it doesn’t sound like he has a great chance of playing.” We’ll see. If Henigan is out, that brings us to Peter Parrish who did not impress when thrust into starting duty, throwing three interceptions in the loss to UCF. Silverfield did say that the offensive coaching staff will have a better plan in place this week for Parrish as they’ve now had two weeks to game plan for SMU, but we saw against the Knights how poor of a passer Parrish and if the Mustangs jump out to an early this, Memphis is cooked.
Should Parrish start, I think that realistically takes all of the skill-position players out of our player pool which is unfortunate because Memphis has one of the best groups among the G5 teams. Calvin Austin saw a boatload of targets (11) with Parrish in the game, but clearly didn’t test teams downfield with an aDOT of just 6.4. He’s completely out at his salary. Tight end Sean Dykes is the one you could make an argument for at $4,300 as he’s second on the team in targets (36) and receptions (28) with three touchdowns in the last four games. Henigan’s absence against UCF was infuriating to this Brandon Thomas owner as he essentially became just a puppet in the backfield with Parrish scrambling around left and right. This could go one of two ways. If somehow Memphis surprises us and gets an early lead, Thomas could be the focal point of the offense to bleed clock. If SMU jumps ahead as expect, Thomas will be nearly irrelevant. Huge risk, but the Vegas line hasn’t really moved much towards either Memphis or SMU despite the Henigan updates.
Ohio State @ Nebraska
Point-Spread: OSU -14.5
O/U Total: 67
Weather: 59 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Ohio State:
We’ve covered Ohio State so much this year that I’m not sure what else to say about the Buckeyes that’ll help you devise a lineup. I’ll mention this below that I kind of like the idea of stacking the Ohio State offense with Adrian Martinez as a potential run-back candidate with this game total sitting at 66 and the line movement swaying towards Nebraska. That means we probably be seeing the Ohio State offense for four quarters barring we get a few pick sixes from Martinez – totally plausible. C.J. Stroud is a good play as always, and probably under-owned as folks look to either the higher-priced QBs or the bargain bin. Fantasy points have been down the last two games, but the level of play continues to be sky-high. When looking to attack the Nebraska defense, through the air is the better strategy as they’re 81st in Pass Play Success Rate vs. 35th against the Run. Should those numbers deter you from TreVeyon Henderson? Absolutely not as arguably the best running back in the nation alongside Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson. Matchup proof and runs behind a dominant offensive line that is 11th in Line Yards. Both Michigan and Minnesota found plenty of success running against the Cornhuskers in recent weeks.
This was 100 percent my cause for concern in CFF prior to the season when it came to the Ohio State receivers. Yes, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave continue to be exceptional talents and very good options in college fantasy. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as a legitimate 1C receiver for the Buckeyes with at least six targets in the last five games. That’s reflected in our projections with the trio sitting between 14 and 18 fantasy points. And for that reason, I think you can get away with playing Stroud naked without pairing a receiver with him. Not to mention tight end Jeremy Ruckert has seen a slight uptick in production of late with 13 of his 19 receptions coming in the last four games. Maybe just a combo of Stroud / Henderson is the best route to go in for a piece of the Buckeye offense.
Nebraska:
Vegas line swinging slightly towards the Cornhuskers this week, so are we thinking Nebraska has a puncher’s chance in this matchup at home? Not if Adrian Martinez throws another four interceptions like he did against Purdue last week, and the fan-base is just about ready to turn the position over to someone else, if they aren’t there already. Implied total here of 25.75 Nebraska should be able to score some on Ohio State this week, and the best way to attack this Buckeye defense is through the air as they are 119th in Pass Play PPA and 85th in Success Rate. I think Martinez is a fine stand-alone candidate at $7k with a projection of 25.4, but also like the idea of game-stacking here with the Ohio State offense in GPPs with the hopes this results in a high-scoring affair. No need to play any of the Nebraska receivers. Samori Toure has six targets in each of the last two weeks, resulting in just three total catches as his production has really tapered off. Omar Manning had a season-high 75 yards and a TD on seven targets vs. Purdue but has not been a reliable option week-to-week. Tight end Austin Allen has been the most reliable of the bunch of late with 10 catches on 14 targets and two scores in the last three games.
I like Rahmir Johnson the player, and he’s cheap here at $5,400 for someone getting the majority of the carries in the Nebraska backfield. Johnson has also shown to be a capable pass-catcher with two receiving touchdowns in the last three games. That said, this is a terrible matchup for the Nebraska offensive line against one of the best defensive fronts in the country. Ohio State is allowing just 14.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and that number has dropped significantly since the start of the season after the coaching changes on defense. 7th in Rush Play Success Rate and 3rd in Defensive Line Yards. Could be a decent pivot as the focus for lineups will be on Adrian Martinez, but I won’t be rostering Johnson this week.
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