theCFFsite • WEEK 9
Weekly Lineup AI-ntelligence Report
A weekly lineup decision guide combining Joe’s independent rankings, theCFFsite weekly projections, and other selective data points. The goal is to uncover players whose weekly outlook deserves a closer look when comparing rankings and projections.
SLEEPER
DEEP SLEEPER
CAUTION
RANK vs. PROJ.
How to read it: Real year-to-date production, recent usage, opponent quality, FBS/FCS splits and current role/news are considered alongside Joe’s rankings and theCFFsite projections. Players from Tuesday’s Delaware–Western Kentucky and Sam Houston–Missouri State games are excluded. No player inside Joe’s Top 30 is labeled a Sleeper.
QUARTERBACK AI-NTEL
SLEEPER
SLEEPER
Craig has thrown for 2,066 yards with 11 touchdowns through seven games and is coming off 372 passing yards plus a rushing score against West Virginia. The Week 9 model projects 310 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns and 23.40 fantasy points.
Joe’s Take: I have Craig at QB34, but I think the volume gives him a real chance to finish higher. He has topped 290 passing yards in four of his last five games, and I like the model leaning into that passing volume against Kansas. He is not a rushing-floor quarterback, so I still need the touchdowns, but he fits the Sleeper range for me.
Owen Eshelman
Washington State • @ San Diego State
SLEEPER
Eshelman has piled up 40-plus pass attempts and 38 combined rushing attempts over his last two games. San Diego State has been one of the weaker scoring defenses in the country, while the Week 9 projection gives Eshelman 231 passing yards, 56 rushing yards and 1.7 total touchdowns.
Joe’s Take: The usage is what has my attention. Even after the poor fantasy result against Boise State, Washington State continued to use Eshelman as both a high-volume passer and runner. This is a much better matchup, and I think his dual-threat workload gives him a better ceiling than my QB35 ranking suggests.
DEEP SLEEPER
Rickie Collins
Kennesaw State • @ Middle Tennessee
DEEP SLEEPER
Collins has 1,426 passing yards and 295 rushing yards with nine total touchdowns through seven games. Before last week’s difficult outing against Liberty, he had posted back-to-back games with at least 260 passing yards and a rushing touchdown.
Joe’s Take: I am willing to go back to Collins in deeper leagues because the rushing usage keeps his floor alive even when the passing game is uneven. Last week was ugly, but I do not want one poor outing to erase the dual-threat production he showed in the two games before it. He is a volatile Deep Sleeper, not a safe starter.
Mason McKenzie
Boston College • @ Duke
DEEP SLEEPER
McKenzie leads Boston College with 614 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns and is coming off a career-high 170 rushing yards with two scores at Georgia Tech. The concern is Duke, which has been one of the tougher quarterback matchups on the schedule.
Joe’s Take: The matchup is why I have McKenzie all the way down at QB58, but his rushing workload keeps him in the Deep Sleeper conversation. A quarterback carrying the ball at this rate can create fantasy points without a big passing day. I would only use him if I need upside, because Duke can absolutely cap the passing side of this profile.
CAUTION
Arch Manning
Texas • Mississippi State
CAUTION
Manning has 1,510 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions through seven games. He scored twice on the ground last week against Ole Miss, but the Week 9 model projects only 222 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns and limited rushing production.
Joe’s Take: I do not trust Arch right now, and if I had my choice, I would not want to start him. But with the abundance of bye weeks and a matchup with Mississippi State, he remains an option I have to consider. I still view him as a volatile QB2, and I would be much more comfortable using him because of necessity than because I expect a breakout.
Maddux Madsen
Boise State • Texas State
CAUTION
Madsen has 1,445 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, but Boise State continues to lean heavily on Dylan Riley and the run game. Texas State has allowed 285.1 passing yards per game, yet the Week 9 model still lands Madsen at just QB72.
Joe’s Take: The matchup is much better than the projection suggests, so I am not calling this a bench recommendation. My concern is volume. Boise State has been able to win without asking Madsen to carry the offense, and that can leave him with an efficient real-football line that does not translate into a strong fantasy finish.
RANK vs. PROJ.
Aidan Chiles
Northwestern • @ Oregon
RANK vs. PROJ.
Chiles has completed 71.3% of his passes for 1,617 yards, 12 touchdowns and only one interception, while adding nine rushing scores. He has rushed for a touchdown in seven straight games, and the model is 31 spots more aggressive than my ranking.
Joe’s Take: This is one of the biggest disagreements on my board. I have Chiles at QB63 because going into Autzen is a major step up in difficulty, but the rushing touchdown streak makes it hard to dismiss the model. If Northwestern keeps this game competitive, Chiles has a realistic path to beating my ranking by a wide margin.
Jackson Gutierrez
Navy • Notre Dame
RANK vs. PROJ.
Gutierrez has rushed for 872 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games, including 599 rushing yards and eight touchdowns over his last three. Notre Dame brings one of the nation’s best defenses, but the projection still gives him 90 rushing yards and a rushing score.
Joe’s Take: My ranking reflects the opponent more than the player. Notre Dame is elite against the run, which is exactly where Gutierrez creates most of his fantasy value. The model is more willing to trust the workload. I see the path to 20-plus points, but I also think this is the week where his enormous rushing volume gets its toughest test.
RUNNING BACK AI-NTEL
SLEEPER
Davion Gause
NC State • California
SLEEPER
Gause has 248 rushing yards and 199 receiving yards through seven games, but his role has expanded while Duke Scott works back from injury. He handled 15 carries last week against Stanford and added five receptions for 51 yards. One factor suppressing his touchdown production has been QB Will Wilson, who has scored eight rushing touchdowns this season and continues to be used near the goal line. California has allowed 1,526 rushing yards, 5.21 yards per carry and 20 rushing touchdowns this season.
Joe’s Take: If it were not for Will Wilson’s presence around the goal line—and his eight rushing touchdowns this season—I would have Gause ranked much higher. The touchdown opportunities have been harder to come by, but I like the yardage potential here, especially with his involvement as a receiver. Against this Cal defense, I also think he has the ability to break one and turn a solid yardage day into a much bigger fantasy result. There is an emotional element I like as well: NC State is playing its first game after Dave Doeren’s firing, and I can see this team trying to rally together under interim coach Todd Goebbel. That combination makes Gause an attractive Sleeper for me this week.
Damon Ferguson Jr.
Pittsburgh • Georgia Tech
SLEEPER
Ferguson leads Pitt with 477 rushing yards and has produced 579 yards from scrimmage with five touchdowns through eight games. He got banged up last week at Miami, and Pat Narduzzi has indicated that he expects Ferguson to be available against Georgia Tech. The Week 9 model still projects 15.05 fantasy points in a favorable matchup.
Joe’s Take: I have Ferguson outside my Top 40 because he got banged up last week, and while the reports are that he should be good to play, I do not fully trust Pat Narduzzi when it comes to injury updates. If Ferguson is truly healthy, I like the matchup and his all-purpose role enough to see Top-30 upside. The risk is whether he is actually as close to 100% as the public comments suggest.
DEEP SLEEPER
Aidan Laughery
Illinois • @ Maryland
DEEP SLEEPER
Laughery has now topped 100 rushing yards against both Ohio State and Oregon, including 123 yards and a touchdown last week against the Ducks. Maryland has struggled against the run, creating one of the better spots on Illinois’ remaining schedule.
Joe’s Take: I am buying the recent trend. Illinois still mixes in other backs, which is why I have Laughery at RB46, but he has earned more work with back-to-back productive performances against strong opponents. If that carries into a much friendlier matchup, he can finish well above my ranking.
AJ Newberry
Oregon State • @ Fresno State
DEEP SLEEPER
Newberry leads Oregon State with 431 rushing yards and three touchdowns and has also shown real receiving upside. The Week 9 model projects 70 rushing yards, 3.5 receptions and 32 receiving yards, pushing him 23 spots above my ranking.
Joe’s Take: I like Newberry more in PPR formats because the receiving work gives him another way to get there. I still have him at RB47 because Oregon State has multiple fantasy options, but the model is clearly expecting a larger all-purpose role. He is the kind of Deep Sleeper who does not need 20 carries to beat my ranking.
CAUTION
Lucky Sutton
San Diego State • Washington State
CAUTION
Sutton has 358 rushing yards and five touchdowns in five games, but San Diego State continues to divide work among Sutton, Javion Kinnard and Josiah Lucas. Washington State is a favorable running back matchup, yet the model projects Sutton outside the Top 40.
Joe’s Take: I still have Sutton in my Top 10 because I like the matchup and his touchdown role, but this backfield split makes me nervous. There is enough opportunity for more than one San Diego State back to produce, but there is also a real chance Sutton does not get the volume normally associated with an RB9 ranking. Proceed with caution, not avoidance.
Jaylin Carter
Memphis • Army
CAUTION
Carter has 833 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. He has not scored in either of his last two games, however, and the Week 9 model projects 84 rushing yards and only 0.6 rushing touchdowns.
Joe’s Take: The season-long production keeps Carter in my Top 20, but the projection is telling me to lower expectations this week. I still trust the workload, yet his recent fantasy results have become more touchdown-dependent. I would start him where needed, but I am not treating him as an automatic ceiling play.
RANK vs. PROJ.
DeJuan Williams
Maryland • Illinois
RANK vs. PROJ.
Williams remains Maryland’s starting back and is heavily involved in the passing game. He caught four passes for 41 yards and a touchdown last week, while the Week 9 model projects 72 rushing yards, three catches and 17.10 fantasy points.
Joe’s Take: This is the largest RB ranking gap in the report. I have Williams at RB68 because the rushing production has not been consistent enough for me, but the model is clearly valuing his receiving role and touchdown opportunity. In PPR formats, I understand the RB17 projection much more than I do in standard scoring.
Makhi Frazier
Ole Miss • Auburn
RANK vs. PROJ.
Lacy being out gives Frazier a real opportunity, but I do not see this as a clean one-back situation. JT Lindsey is the biggest concern for me, with Shekai Mills-Knight and others also capable of taking touches. Even with that uncertainty, I am confident enough in Frazier because Auburn has been vulnerable on the ground lately. I still believe he can produce RB2 numbers without needing every backfield touch.
Joe’s Take: Frazier has 301 rushing yards this season, and Kewan Lacy is ruled out with a dislocated shoulder. The opportunity increases, but Ole Miss still has other backs available, with JT Lindsey in particular looming as the biggest barrier to a true workhorse role. Auburn has allowed 174.7 rushing yards per game, 4.72 yards per carry and six rushing touchdowns over three October games.
WIDE RECEIVER AI-NTEL
SLEEPER
Griffin Wilde
Northwestern • @ Oregon
RANK vs. PROJ.
Wilde has 39 receptions for 615 yards and four touchdowns through seven games and is coming off a season-high nine catches for 133 yards and a touchdown against Rutgers. The Week 9 model projects 6.5 receptions for 75 yards and 0.6 touchdowns, placing him 13 spots above my ranking despite the difficult trip to Oregon.
Joe’s Take: I have Wilde at WR51 because I respect the road matchup at Oregon, but the volume makes the WR38 projection reasonable. He has 25 catches for 370 yards over four October games and is coming off his best performance of the season. I am not moving him all the way into my Top 40, but I understand why the projection is more aggressive than I am.
Anthony Evans III
Mississippi State • @ Texas
DEEP SLEEPER
Evans remains one of Mississippi State’s primary volume targets, but two factors are driving my low Week 9 ranking: starting QB Kamario Taylor is out for the remainder of the season, and the Bulldogs travel to Texas. Even with those concerns, the Week 9 model still projects Evans for seven catches, 71 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Joe’s Take: The two biggest reasons I have Evans down at WR65 are Kamario Taylor being out for the year and the road matchup at Texas. That does not mean I am completely out on Evans. His target volume still gives him value in PPR formats, and if he turns that volume into one touchdown, I think he has a very realistic path to finishing inside the Top 30 this week.
DEEP SLEEPER
DEEP SLEEPER
Derry has 34 receptions for 358 yards and three touchdowns, with all three scores coming in his last three games. Over that stretch he has produced 24 catches for 239 yards, and he caught the first overtime touchdown in UCF’s upset of BYU.
Joe’s Take: Derry’s role has changed enough that I am willing to treat him as a Deep Sleeper. He has become much more involved in conference play, and Keyone Jenkins is playing his best football of the season. At WR49, I see enough target volume and red-zone involvement to chase the upside.
Calvin Russell III
Syracuse • SMU
DEEP SLEEPER
Russell has 16 receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns in only three games of meaningful action. Syracuse has steadily increased the five-star freshman’s role, and the Week 9 model projects 5.5 catches for 70 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
Joe’s Take: This is more about role growth than a huge rankings gap. Russell is starting to look like a legitimate second option next to Umari Hatcher, and I want to get ahead of that before the ranking catches up. There is still volatility with a young receiver, but the target ceiling is climbing.
CAUTION
KJ Duff
Rutgers • Michigan
CAUTION
Duff has been elite with 45 receptions for 774 yards and nine touchdowns, but Michigan has allowed only 149.3 passing yards per game. The Week 9 model projects five catches for 71 yards and 0.8 touchdowns, dropping him outside the Top 35.
Joe’s Take: I am not benching Duff simply because of the matchup—his season has been too good for that. But this is the toughest type of spot for a receiver who has been winning with explosive plays and touchdowns. I have him at WR25, and I would treat that as a ceiling-adjusted ranking rather than expecting another monster week.
Justin Bowick
Oklahoma State • @ Iowa State
CAUTION
Bowick has 34 receptions for 607 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 17.9 yards per catch. His Week 9 projection falls to 4.5 receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown, creating a 17-spot gap from my WR16 ranking.
Joe’s Take: Bowick has been excellent, but a lot of his fantasy ceiling has come from explosive plays and touchdowns. I still have him at WR16 because I trust Drew Mestemaker and this offense, but the model is warning that the weekly reception volume may not support that ranking if the big play does not hit.
RANK vs. PROJ.
Evan Stewart
Oregon • Northwestern
RANK vs. PROJ.
Stewart is now probable after missing the last two games and has 27 receptions for 352 yards and four touchdowns in five appearances. The updated theCFFsite projection calls for five catches, 78 yards and 0.7 touchdowns, which equals 14.50 fantasy points and moves him to WR35.
Joe’s Take: My WR45 ranking is intentionally cautious because Stewart is returning from both an injury absence and the off-field situation that cost him last week. The projection is treating him more like a normal starter again. If he is fully cleared and resumes his usual snap share, I can see him finishing closer to the WR35 projection than my WR45 ranking.
Isaiah Sategna III
Oklahoma • South Carolina
RANK vs. PROJ.
Sategna has 41 receptions for 578 yards and three touchdowns while adding 40 rushing yards. He leads Oklahoma in receiving, and the Week 9 model projects seven catches for 97 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Joe’s Take: The model is much more aggressive than my WR46 ranking, and I understand why. Sategna has been Oklahoma’s most dependable receiving option, and the projected seven-catch workload gives him a strong PPR floor. If Oklahoma gets the passing volume the model expects, he can easily finish inside the Top 30.
MORE SLEEPERS TO CONSIDER
Ten additional names with quick-hitting reasons to keep them on the Week 9 lineup radar.
Deuce BaileyCoastal Carolina • @ Georgia State
Joe QB38 • Projection QB33 • 22.46 FP
229 passing yards, 2.2 passing TDs and 33 rushing yards keep him in the QB2 streaming mix.
Nathan HayesNorth Dakota State • UTEP
Joe QB39 • Projection QB36 • 21.82 FP
The model gives him 1.8 passing TDs plus 35 rushing yards and 0.6 rushing TDs.
Isaac WilsonColorado • Kansas State
Joe QB43 • Projection QB41 • 21.46 FP
A dual-threat path remains with 244 projected passing yards and 31 rushing yards.
Jordan Marshall
Michigan • @ Rutgers
Joe RB38 • Projection RB54 • 13.10 FP
The projection is modest, but the matchup keeps him on my sleeper radar. Rutgers is allowing 199.1 rushing yards per game and 5.83 yards per carry, and Marshall has handled double-digit carries in every game he has played.
Ahmad MillerSyracuse • SMU
Joe RB31 • Projection RB32 • 14.90 FP
He is coming off 130 rushing yards on 33 carries and has scored four touchdowns over his last three games.
Jadan BaughFlorida • @ Georgia
Joe RB39 • Projection RB19 • 16.60 FP
The matchup is difficult, but the model still projects 84 rushing yards, two catches and a touchdown.
Kayden McGeeUNLV • Northern Illinois
Joe WR32 • Projection WR28 • 16.20 FP
The projection includes 80 receiving yards, 0.9 touchdowns and a little rushing usage.
Cataurus HicksPittsburgh • Georgia Tech
Joe WR36 • Projection WR34 • 14.70 FP
Five projected catches for 80 yards and 0.7 TDs gives him enough ceiling to use as a WR3/flex.
Trent MosleyUSC • Ohio State
Joe WR43 • Projection WR33 • 15.30 FP
Six projected catches for 75 yards and 0.8 touchdowns keep him relevant even in a difficult matchup.
Gavin FreemanBaylor • @ UCF
Joe WR48 • Projection WR42 • 13.90 FP
Seven projected catches for 80 yards give him a useful PPR path from well outside my Top 40.
How to read it: Real year-to-date production, recent usage, opponent quality, FBS/FCS splits and current role/news are considered alongside Joe’s rankings and theCFFsite projections. Players from Tuesday’s Delaware–Western Kentucky and Sam Houston–Missouri State games are excluded. No player inside Joe’s Top 30 is labeled a Sleeper.
