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Kent State vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -36.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UCF 47.5 – Kent St 11
Weather: 83 degrees / 34% rain / 11 mph winds
Kent State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jack Coulson ($3,400) Going through the motions here because we’re realistically not selecting anyone from a team with an implied total of just 11 points. Coulson, was a surprise starter on the initial depth chart, ahead of sophomore Trell Harris who flashed at times last season. Just one reception a year ago in five games. Again, to re-emphasize, we’re not rostering any Kent State players this week.
Fade – QB Matt Alaimo ($8,700) Zero exposure at this pricing in your lineups. Alaimo is a former 3-star recruit and Purdue transfer who won the starting job but will be playing on a Kent State team that is in a full-fledged rebuild. The Flashes have just 17% returning production from last year’s team with at least 15 players seeking new destinations in the offseason.
Bargain Bin – RB Gavin Garcia ($3,000) Former Minnesota transfer Ky Thomas would have been the starter here, but it appears he’s not been granted a waiver yet by the NCAA – similar to UNC WR Tez Walker. With Thomas out of the picture, Garcia gets the starting nod. Kent State returns just two starters along the offensive line and won’t have a positive game script for rushing yards.
Pivot Play – Rostering any Kent State player.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke Floriea ($3,900) and Treymon Echols ($3,000) Just three combined catches between these two listed starters in 2022. With no established pecking order here because of the lack of experience, probably not worth any risk of exposure, but they’re cheap at least.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($5,200) Last year’s leading rusher Isaiah Bowser departs, and in steps RJ Harvey into a starting role that has been very profitable over the years under head coach Gus Malzahn. There was talk of improved depth in the UCF backfield this offseason, and some questioned if Harvey would be THE guy in 2023. Depth chart doesn’t have any ORs, so we’re assuming this is his job. RB1 under Malzahn has averaged 16 FPPG over the last nine seasons.
Fade – WR Corey Gammage ($5,100) One of the more disappointing transfer landing spots of the offseason. Gammage went from the Marshall WR1, to the Purdue WR1, and now lands as the UCF WR4. Fine for a high-volume passing offense, but UCF threw the ball just 42% of the time last season.
Bargain Bin – RB Johnny Richardson ($3,300) We looked at DeMarkcus Bowman’s salary here first thinking he would be cheaper than Richardson, but this cost is much lower than we expected. The 5-foot-7 senior is never going to be a workhorse, but has a career 6.8 YPC average and is a dynamo in the passing game. With over a 30-point spread, expect to see rotation in what appears to be a deep UCF backfield.
Pivot Play – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($10,600) Endless options at the RB position in this slate make it feasible to spend up for JRP. And if last year was any indication during blowout situations, we probably should attempt to have some exposure even at this pricing. In UCF’s three wins of at least 30+ points last year, JRP combined for 15 total touchdowns, including seven in a victory over Temple.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Of those 15 touchdowns we mentioned above from JRP, nine were of the passing variety, so someone is going to valuable here, if not two of the options. The issue is that UCF improved their depth greatly in the offseason, adding Trent Whittemore (Florida) and the aforementioned Corey Gammage. This is not a high-volume passing offense and last year’s leading target-getter accounted for just 21% target share. Sprinkle some in of Javon Baker, Kobe Hudson and Xavier Townsend in your lineups, but probably wouldn’t advise rostering two receivers in the same one.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rhode Island vs. Georgia State
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 80 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($7,400) Finished 18th last season in fantasy points scored among CFB quarterbacks, a lot of which is due to his dual-threat ability, averaging double-digit carries per game. What makes Grainger intriguing here are the losses the Georgia State roster took over the offseason. Three starting linemen and top two running backs all graduate, and the Panthers rank 121st in rushing defensive production percentage. Should Rhode Island keep this competitive, which could happen given the losses on defense, Grainger sets up nicely here.
Fade – Multiple Georgia State WRs Someone will pop among the Georgia State receivers, but the likelihood two players do in the same lineup is not high. The Panthers ranked 6th nationally in rush play percentage a year ago (63.4%).
Bargain Bin – WR Robert Lewis ($4,000) Lewis was not great last season for Georgia State, leading the team in drops and less than 50% target conversion rate. But this program has been successful over the years with developing strong WR1 play (Jamari Thrash, Sam Pinckney, Penny Hart). Lewis was listed atop the depth chart and the best bet to be the WR1.
Pivot Play – RB KZ Adams ($4,000) We’ll start by saying that Marcus Carroll ($4,500) is the clear-cut RB1 for Georgia State, but Adams is a very intriguing player. Will never garner a heavy workload at his size, but has been the spring game darling the last two seasons, rushing for 152 yards and four touchdowns back in April. Explosive player. We’ve seen a split backfield the last few seasons under HC Shawn Elliott where the RB2 has hit 20% volume share each of the last three years. 10+ touches is within the range of outcomes for Adams.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Cyais Credle ($3,900) Credle finished second in routes run and targets last season (46) in 11 games. Looking at just 5.1 targets per game from the WR2 in this system, and no certainty that is Credle with so much turnover in the receiver room for Georgia State. If looking to pair with Grainger, we’d just look to the safe bet in Lewis.
Injury Notes – n/a
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