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Northern Illinois vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: BC -9.5
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: BC 31 – NIU 21.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($4,600) Nice to have Northern Illinois’ top playmaker back in the starting lineup after missing all of last season with a knee injury. The staff did take it slow with Rudolph throughout fall camp, but is listed as a starting receiver and returner, which is promising for his health outlook for Week 1. Led NIU in receiving back in 2021 with 51 catches and seven touchdowns, and all wideouts benefit from getting their starting quarterback healthy again. Modest defensive metrics for the BC pass defense last season, ranking 51st in explosiveness and 72nd in success rate, all the while losing their top CB to the portal.
Fade – RB Gavin Williams ($4,300) The Iowa transfer will provide needed depth to the NIU backfield, but this is Antario Brown’s ($5,100) in 2023. The spring camp MVP looks to rebound from an inconsistent 2022 where he landed in a rotation among three different options at the position. Doesn’t seem to be the case entering this season, and the Huskies return four starters along the offensive line – though the group did disappoint compared to expectations.
Bargain Bin – WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($3,000) I think this is a misprice by DraftKings with NIU’s likely No. 2 receiver at min salary. Despite being a reserve for most of 2022, Rutkiewicz wound up leading the Huskies in touchdowns (6) with a 67% target conversion rate. Should Rudolph not be at 100% (we think he is, but never know for sure), Rutkiewicz could see increased usage.
Pivot Play – QB Rocky Lombardi ($7,400) The former Michigan State transfer is back under center for the Huskies after missing most of last season due to injury. Lombardi has had success against P5 opponents since arriving in DeKalb, throwing two touchdowns in an upset victory on the road against Georgia Tech in 2021. Last year, Lombardi started 7-of-7 against Vanderbilt before giving way due to injury. This is one of the better WR groups NIU has boasted in some time and game script likely plays in his favor.
Best of the Rest – WR Davis Patterson ($3,000) A 6-foot-4 FCS transfer, Patterson lands an outside starting job opposite Trayvon Rudolph. Sat out most of last year to injury, Patterson did post 629 receiving yards and five touchdowns, averaging 16.1 YPC in 2021 at Notre Dame College. To re-emphasize, NIU really likes their wide receiver group this year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($6,100) Expecting Zay Flowers-like numbers from the UCF transfer this year would be optimistic, but O’Keefe will essentially be inserted in the exact same role in the slot that produced 124 targets in 2022. Not the highest projection at just 13.2 fantasy points, but you know what you’re getting from veteran with 184 career receptions in a defined role.
Fade – RB Pat Garwo ($6,000) At some point this BC running game has to improve, right? One of the worst offensive lines in the country from a metrics standpoint does return 94% of their offensive snaps from a season ago. Good or bad news? We’ll see right out of the gates against a very suspect NIU defense that graded out very poorly in 2022. Low floor, limited upside play here as BC also has increased depth at the RB spot with Kye Robichaux coming over from Western Kentucky and sophomore Alex Broome ($5,100) who the staff likes quite a bit.
Bargain Bin – TE George Takacs ($3,500) Another player whose season was cut short due to injury, Takacs was averaging 4.6 targets per game before being lost for the year. New associate head coach of the offense, Rob Chudzinski, was a TE position coach at previous stops, so we could see Takacs featured if Chud has a big say on the play-calling.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Griffin ($5,300) The 6-foot-3 sophomore was outstanding down the stretch last season with 13 receptions and three scores in the last five games. While most anticipate O’Keefe being the leading target-getter for the Eagles, new faces in new places can lead to changes. Are we certain it’s not Griffin as WR1 here? Talent is there.
Best of the Rest – QB Emmett Morehead ($7,600) Should the run game issues persist, BC could have an upgrade at the quarterback position in Emmett Morehead who did play well down the stretch last season, completing 60% of his passes in three of the last four games. We’ll take out the Notre Dame performance from the equation as the weather was blustery that night. We’ve spoken on the surplus of weapons that Morehead has at his disposal. NIU’s deficiencies on defense in 2022 were against the pass, ranking 132nd in explosiveness allowed and 96th in success rate.
Injury Notes – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,000)
Virginia vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -28
O/U Total: 58
Implied Score: UT 43 – UVA 15
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Virginia:
We were expecting regression with the Virginia offense last season given the coaching changes but taking a nosedive off a cliff without the bungee cord was not on our list of possible outcomes. UVA scored just 17 PPG – half as many points as they scored the year prior. The Cavs combined for just seven touchdown passes in 10 games, and what made matters worse was that they led the country in drops (35). To add insult to injury, Virginia running backs combined to score the fewest fantasy points in the country. HC Tony Elliott’s reputation as an offensive mind is diminishing with each passing season, and there is no confidence here that OC Des Kitchings can formulate a CFF-relevant offense based on his past history.
As for playable options on Saturday, the list is slim. We’re avoiding both the quarterback position and the impending mess of a committee in the UVA backfield. The Cavs do have two talented receiving options, though, in a game they’ll need to throw to keep pace with UT. WR Malachi Fields ($4,800) is a very talented receiver that’s been overshadowed the last few seasons by Keytaon Thompson and Dontayvion Wicks. Similar build at 6-foot-3, and the clear-cut No. 1 option for UVA with over 200 vacated targets no longer on the roster. Northwestern transfer Malik Washington ($4,200) is also reasonably priced with a positive game script who brings over 120 career receptions to a room that desperately needs experience.
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – QB Joe Milton ($8,700) Running back is going to be a full-blown committee as it typically is under HC Josh Heupel. And the tea leaves are indicating receiver might be a joint effort as well with four capable starters at the position. So we’ll settle for the conductor of the offense in Joe Milton who left a lasting impression with his three-touchdown performance in the bowl game vs. Clemson. He’s got his detractors, having lost a starting job twice in his college career, but he’s by far the safest bet on the UT offense for Week 1. Heupel’s last five starting quarterbacks have averaged over 29 FPPG.
Fade – Tight Ends. The position isn’t featured much under Heupel, but will even less so be the case in 2023 given the depth at WR, with playing more 4-wide sets in the cards. At its peak, the TE1 only averages 3.1 targets per game in this system, and the Vols lose its starter from last year.
Bargain Bin – WR Ramel Keyton ($4,100) Ole reliable. The 5th-year senior was disrespected by CFF players in the offseason, drafting the other three UT receivers well ahead of the established veteran. Well, Keyton secured a starting spot outside, and has performed well when given the opportunity, including 76 yards and a TD in the bowl game. The slot receiver (White/Thornton) is typically the most valuable in the Heupel passing scheme, but UT also averages 33 pass attempts per game, so plenty to go around.
Pivot Play – WR Dont’e Thornton ($4,300) Hype grew louder for Thornton as the offseason went along with plenty of praise from the staff. Not an exact replica of last year’s starter Jalin Hyatt, as Thornton is a few inches taller, but the size/speed combination is perfectly suited in the UT offense that loves to stretch defenses vertically. The risk here is that Thornton is likely to share the slot position with WR Squirrel White ($5,500) but some would argue the Oregon transfer is the most talented on the team. I think there could be some leverage here playing Thornton over White, as folks will look at last year’s box score against Clemson.
Best of the Rest – RBs. All three top running backs (Small, Wright, Sampson) are in the middling price range that we’ll probably just avoid altogether. The passing game gets the headlines, but this is one of the more balanced offenses in the country, rushing for 40 TDs a year ago. The problem is RBBC where Jabari Small and Jaylen Wright accounted for 30% / 28% of the volume share, respectively. Add in a talented option like Dylan Sampson or potentially 4-star Cameron Seldon and this is a full-blown time share.
Injury Notes – n/a