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SE Missouri vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 96 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
SE Missouri:
We covered FCS on the weekly slates. Not playing anyone here on a 9-gamer.
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($5,500) There was excitement for RB Treshaun Ward’s ($6,000) arrival from Florida State, thinking he would fill the shoes of K-State legend Deuce Vaughn. As Lee Corso would say, NOT SO FAST. Preseason magazines (not always 100% accurate) all had the sophomore Giddens as the projected starter. There haven’t been any reports on the K-State side to dispute this notion either. The 200+ pound sophomore has looked very good in limited appearances, averaging over six yards a carry on 98 touches. Here’s what we do know. The Wildcats should be very good running the football in 2023, with or without Vaughn, as they return all five starting OL from a year ago. Head coach Chris Klieman has utilized a committee in the past, so expecting a good dosage of both RBs.
Fade – WR RJ Garcia ($5,500) I do think there’s a chance we see some success with the passing game (see below), but Garcia is the perceived WR3 in an offense. Now last season’s WR3 garnered 19% target share – the highest ever mark for a WR3 under Klieman. The WR3 averaged just 7.2 FPPG. Point per dollar isn’t worth it here.
Bargain Bin – TE Ben Sinnott ($3,800) Sinnott’s value took off once Will Howard was inserted as the starting quarterback last season. Four touchdowns in the last five games, including a season-high eight targets in the bowl game vs. Alabama. People who aren’t in tune will see “FB” on the Kansas State depth chart and think he’s a non-factor.
Pivot Play – QB Will Howard ($9,100) Would’ve absolutely considered Howard more here had he been a slightly more attainable pricing. Do think it’s notable that offensive coordinator and former K-State legend Collin Klein did up the pace and passing volume once Howard took over as QB1, averaging 28 pass attempts per game (23 with Adrian Martinez). And while he didn’t show it last year, Howard is more than capable as a runner, rushing for 364 yards and four scores as a freshman in 2021.
Best of the Rest – WR Keagan Johnson ($5,900) While returnee Phillip Brooks ($6,700) is back after finishing second last season in targets (73), I would strongly lean towards the Iowa transfer here as he moves to a functioning passing offense. Brooks was relatively disappointing in 2022, leading the team in drops (5). Johnson should fill the Malik Knowles role as the team’s big play threat after averaging 19.6 YPC as a freshman.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -20.5
O/U Total: 52
Implied Score: PSU 36 – WVU 16.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($4,700) I’m very conflicted here. The argument for Donaldson: (1) He’s West Virginia’s best offensive weapon. (2) The Mountaineers bring back all five starting offensive linemen. (3) When Neal Brown calls plays on offense, which he will be this season, he FEEDS his RB1 and nobody else. You’re looking at 200+ carries in a season and over 16 FPPG. Donaldson clearly displayed last year, when healthy, he’s capable of such feats. But when the pricing is too good to be true, it usually is. FWIW – his rushing props began in the 40s and aren’t much higher as of Friday.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,300) We hit on this above. When Neal Brown calls plays, his tendencies show that he leans on one running back. 50% volume share is a gift from the heavens with fantasy running backs, and that’s happen with three different running backs under Brown, dating back to his time at Troy. No need to concern yourself with anyone else.
Bargain Bin – n/a. The only player we’re considering under $5k is Donaldson.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Greene ($5,700) I’ll start by saying I’m most likely fading all WVU players this week. But a dual-threat QB at this pricing is tempting with a 17-point projection and in each of his starts last season, Greene reached paydirt with a rushing touchdown. This Penn State secondary was one of the best in the country, though, in 2022, ranking 9th in success rate against the pass and 4th in total EPA.
Best of the Rest – WR Devin Carter ($5,300) Was mostly a non-factor during his time at NC State, but there’s a reason West Virginia sought after Carter in the offseason. Fits the size requirements for a red-zone threat at 6-foot-3 and id actually play well down the stretch last season with 40% of his targets coming in the last three games. Carter showed out against UNC with 130 yards and a TD in the finale. A career 16.1 YPC.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RBs. Tough to choose which RB to roster. Here’s the research we did in the offseason. The slightest of edges to Kaytron Allen for overall rushing attempts (167-155), red-zone carries (30-23) and receiving targets (24-17) in the same number of games played. Singleton was the game-breaker of the two, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt with 12 rushes of 20 yards or more. In terms of advanced metrics, Singleton was also superior. 4.58 yards per attempt after contact. 59.9% breakaway rate, compared to just 25.7% for Allen. Both players were very productive as freshmen, so it’s difficult to envision a scenario where one snags most of the volume. Just three times last year did either Singleton or Allen hit 20 rushing attempts in a game.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($4,900) Some thought the former Kent State transfer would wind up as Penn State’s new WR1. That still may come to fruition at some point, but Cephas arrived in the summer and might actually be on the third string with some of the developments of the younger Nittany Lion receivers. Maybe Cephas will be an option later in the year but fade for now.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyler Warren ($3,400) I would assume most CFB fans are split on their opinions of media personality Josh Pate. But I distinctly remember a show of his where he covered the Nittany Lions offense and called out tight end Tyler Warren as a potential difference maker for 2023. He’ll split reps with starter Theo Johnson, but there are 38 vacated targets available with Brenton Strange graduating. With some question marks at receiver, the tight ends could be safety blankets for Drew Allar.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($6,500) While we don’t have interest in Allar, we don’t believe anyone will be playing KLS this week at this cost and a moderate 13-point projection. Murmurs out of camp, though, suggest that Lambert-Smith has established himself as the WR1, despite Penn State going out and acquiring multiple receivers in the portal this offseason. I do like that KLS ended last year on a high note with a touchdown in each of the final two games, including 100 yards in the bowl game vs. a very good Utah defense.
Best of the Rest – QB Drew Allar ($8,900) Someone needs to explain to me why Allar is priced as high as he is, yet we have bargains on a Donovan Smith or Frank Harris? First-year starter and a non-runner with a questionable receiving room. I’m still maintaining my stance that 2023 Penn State will replicate the Michigan 2022 offense. High-end offensive line play to protect a first year starting QB, and heavily lean on your horses on the ground.
Injury Notes – n/a