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Notre Dame vs. NC State
Point-Spread: ND -8
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: ND 29 – NC St 21
Weather: 81 degrees / 41% rain / 5 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($7,500) We’ve seen Notre Dame spread the wealth a bit among the running backs in the first two weeks with Estime, Gi’Bran Payne, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price all getting involved. Still, when looking at the overall numbers, Estime dominates the backfield market share at 47%. That share will grow in a more competitive matchup with the Wolfpack.
Fade – WR Tobias Merriweather ($4,900) I think we’ll be seeing a change in the starting lineup here sooner or later. Merriweather is tied for the team lead in routes run for the Irish, but minimal production with that time spent on the field. Just two receptions on five targets. Pure speculation, but we’re getting to the point in the year where the Irish staff will give those opportunities to someone else.
Bargain Bin – TE Mitchell Evans ($4,100) No, Evans is not Michael Mayer, but he’s tied for the team lead in routes run this season and has converted on four of his five targets.
Pivot Play – WR Jayden Thomas ($6,400) Incredible efficiency from Thomas through two games as the Notre Dame WR1, converting on all eight of his targets on the year with a touchdown. Now that the cupcakes are out of the way on the ND schedule, we’ll see Thomas playing the entirety of the contest as Sam Hartman’s most trusted receiving option in the passing game. I would say Thomas is the only ND pass catcher I’ll roster in my DFS lineups.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($8,600) HC Dave Doeren and the defensive scheme have given Hartman fits over the years at Wake Forest. A 1-2 record, completing just 55% of his passes with six interceptions. Was that a Hartman issue or just NC State having a defensive schematic advantage over the Slow-mesh RPO system of Wake Forest? NC State’s secondary is one of the better groups in the ACC.
Injury Notes – RB Devyn Ford ($3,100) Ford has already been ruled out this week.
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($9,200) I’ll preface by saying I believe our projection is a tad on the high side after watching last week’s game against UConn. It is very evident that Armstrong and his receivers need more reps together as the group seemed out of sync. The wideouts also combined for four drops, three of which were very catchable, so there is room for significant improvement. But who else are you going to in this scenario for a team that cannot run the football (outside of Armstrong) and no proven playmaker at receiver?
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($6,400) Easiest single fade you’ll see on this slate. Houston did dominate the touch share in the NC State backfield against UConn but wasn’t overly impressive with his opportunities. Houston also gave way to both Armstrong and backup Delbert Mimms once the Wolfpack reached the red zone.
Bargain Bin – WR Bradley Rozner ($3,500) Not a totally unexpected result from Rozner despite our CFF rankings having the Rice transfer inside out Top 50. Remember that Rozner just arrived on campus back in the summer and will need some time to acclimate. Rozner was just sixth among NC State receivers in routes run last week and did have an ugly drop. We’re anticipating his reps increasing steadily as the weeks go along and he comprehends the scheme.
Pivot Play – WR KC Concepcion ($4,900) The true freshman didn’t come through as a min-priced play last week, recording just four receptions on five targets for minimal yardage. In the game preview, the NC State beat writer inquired again with his sources about which wide receiver will this passing game can rely on this week and moving forward. The answer continues to be Concepcion.
Best of the Rest – WR Keyon Lesane ($4,600) We saw a ton of rotation with the NC State receivers last week, with the coaching staff trying desperately to uncover who will be an actual difference maker among the group. Lesane played 66% of the snaps last week – the most of any NC State receiver. Our preference among NC State wideouts for this matchup against ND is the following: (1) None (2) Concepcion (3) Rozner (4) Lesane.
Injury Notes – n/a
James Madison vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: JMU -6.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: JMU 23.5 – UVA 17
Weather: 79 degrees / 59% rain / 3 mph winds
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan McCloud ($5,000) McCloud came on in relief of an ineffective Alonza Barnett and looked exponentially better with 144 yards and two touchdowns. A 23-point projection at $5k feels like an insta-start and I will certainly sprinkle McCloud in some GPP lineups. This is a veteran QB with P5 experience that can run with over 400 rushing yards in his college career. Would caution that this is not the same JMU team as last year with Todd Centeio. Just 45% of James Madison’s offensive production from a year ago is back. Wouldn’t go overboard here.
Fade – RB Latrele Palmer ($4,000) James Madison is priced down to a point that everyone it’s tough to suggest fading anyone here. Would lean Palmer if forced to choose as he’s the clear RB2 behind Kaelon Black.
Bargain Bin – WR Pheonix Sproles ($4,100) We do have some cheaper JMU receivers at higher projections, but Sproles was on the field more than any of them last week, running the second most routes behind Reggie Brown. Not advising anyone outside of Brown until we get a firm grasp of the target distribution, but Sproles would be my bet to assume the WR2 for now.
Pivot Play – WR Reggie Brown ($4,500) Brown was a top 50 fantasy receiver for us coming into the season and early returns indicate he’s likely the WR1 here with 77 yards and a score on five targets. JMU is developing a reputation for wide receiver production with three 1,000-yard seasons from the WR1 in the last four years.
Best of the Rest – RB Kaelon Black ($4,200) Explosive start for JMU’s new RB1, averaging over 10 yards per carry in the win over Bucknell. Too early to tell for me any advantages between the JMU offensive line and Virginia defensive front, but we do know UVA was absolutely gashed last week by the Tennessee run game for nearly 300 yards and five rushing scores.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($4,700) It’s really a bummer that Fields isn’t on a better team, because the 6-foot-4 junior is an incredibly talented player that really played well against Tennessee’s secondary last week. Now Fields will be playing with a backup QB but is still worth considering at this minimal price. 36% of Virginia’s target share last week was directed at Fields.
Fade – RBs Virginia will trot four of them out there weekly, and probably will look similar to the box score against Tennessee every single time. James Madison was a top 5 rush defense a year ago, and the Dukes are off to a good start again in 2023, ranking 8th in rush success rate through one week.
Bargain Bin – RB Kobe Pace ($3,100) With that said above, the former Clemson transfer looked good in the second half of last week’s blowout, finishing with 39 yards on seven attempts (5.6 YPC). Cheap enough for a lineup filler if you’re desperate.
Pivot Play – WR Malik Washington ($4,300) Usage is good, but minimal production last week from the Northwestern transfer. Between Washington and Fields, the WR duo combined for 69% of the target share. That’s the good news. Bad news is Washington’s four receptions went nowhere. 7.3 YPC and an aDOT of just 2.3 yards. If you’re playing a UVA receiver in a lineup, just choose one please.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Would not consider anyone on the UVA side that we didn’t mention here.
Injury Notes – QB Tony Muskett ($5,200) Muskett was hit by a Tennessee defender and landed on the ground awkwardly with what is being described as a shoulder injury. Status is being deemed as ‘uncertain’ but we’re assuming he will not play Saturday. QB Anthony Colandrea ($4,700) will likely start in his place, and this was a legitimate quarterback competition according to the beat writers. Based on his high school stat sheet, it does appear he has some mobility, rushing for over 1,000 rushing yards his last two seasons as a starter.