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Wisconsin vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Wisc -6
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Wisc 32 – Wazzu 26
Weather: 81 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($6,900) 141 rushing yards against a MAC opponent is expected from Allen. Seven receptions on seven targets is not. The one noted difference between the previous Wisconsin regime and new OC Phil Longo did come into play against Buffalo, though. Longo’s preference on a split backfield has been a thing at all of his previous stops and that continue Saturday with a 17-13 split between Allen and backup Chez Mellusi. 20 carries per game for the Wisconsin RB1 is a thing of the past, but 20 touches might not be with Allen’s active hands in the passing game.
Fade – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,200) I was out when Mordecai threw five interceptions in the Wisconsin spring game. Last week’s performance against Buffalo did nothing to squash those concerns, throwing for just 189 yards and two touchdowns. Turnovers clearly remain an issue still, and after one week, Wisconsin ranks 100th in pass success rate and 106th in EPA (Expected Points Added).
Bargain Bin – WR Bryson Green ($4,700) The Oklahoma State transfer was tied for the team lead in targets (5) among wideouts. Still a lot of sorting out to do here, though, as to who the preferred options are in the Wisconsin passing game or will it be spread out most of the year?
Pivot Play – WR Will Pauling ($5,100) Really healthy projection for Pauling here despite a mediocre Week 1, hauling in five catches for 55 yards. The intrigue here is past production of slot receivers in Phil Longo’s passing scheme. Five of the last six years the slot receiver finished No. 1 in fantasy points for the respective team under Longo, with three 100-target seasons.
Best of the Rest – WR Chimere Dike ($5,300) Just one target for Dike last week despite running the most routes of any Wisconsin receiver. Did result in a touchdown, though, and his 20.0 aDOT (average depth of target) was highest on the team. Given our hesitancy with trusting Mordecai, we’d probably suggest just one Wisconsin receiver in a lineup and not stacking multiple. Which one is truly the best option is a guessing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – WR Lincoln Victor ($4,700) We figured Victor would be among the top three pass-catching options for Wazzu this season, but 11 receptions on 14 targets vs. Colorado State was not on our bingo card. Slot receivers in Ben Arbuckle’s offensive system have proven to be very profitable from a fantasy standpoint (Malachi Corley).
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($5,800) I remember this matchup last year and us advising to fade Watson against his former team. We downplayed the revenge factor facing his former team and were burned as Watson had over 60 yards of total offense and two touchdowns. Wisconsin did allow over 130 rushing yards last week to Buffalo, but we’re back to fading Watson again in this matchup. Take out the 73 rushing yards from Washington State QBs and the running backs combined for all of 44 yards on the ground. Watson missed most of fall camp due to injury so there is probably a lot of rust there.
Bargain Bin – DT Sheffield ($3,000) Sigh. One of our favorite players this offseason and projected breakout performers of the 2023 season put up a dud with three receptions on four targets. Sheffield was injured for a portion of fall camp, so we’re wondering if that played a role in his limited production. Victor played 79% of the offensive snaps last week, while Sheffield only played 47%. At this pricing though, you can absolutely guarantee we’ll be mixing Sheffield into our lineups. He’s the fastest player on the team.
Pivot Play – WR Josh Kelly ($5,300) Victor wasn’t the only Washington State receiver to surprise last week, as the former Fresno State transfer posted 97 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. While it was debated who was the top slot receiver this offseason between Victor and Sheffield, there was no questioning who was the preferred outside receiver on the roster. High floor / high ceiling combination with many of the Wazzu wideouts.
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Ward ($8,200) So far, so good for Ward assimilating to the new offensive system under Ben Arbuckle. 76% completion rate for 451 yards and four total scores against Colorado State. Even in a blowout, the passing volume looked very similar to Western Kentucky last year under Arbuckle, attempting 49 passes. I’d expect 40+ on Saturday. UNLV transfer Kyle Williams ($5,400) finished third in routes run and targets last week, finding the end-zone once. True freshman WR Carlos Hernandez ($3,400) made his way up the depth chart despite a crowded room and has overtaken several veterans. Converted on all five of his targets. Given the rates at which Washington State throws the football, stacking multiple WRs (with or without Ward) is an definite option.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. San Diego State
Point-Spread: UCLA -14
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UCLA 31 – SDSU 17
Weather: 82 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – WR J Michael Sturdivant ($6,900) Divided at the CFFSite on how the running back projections should shake out, so let’s focus our attention on the solidified WR1 for the Bruins in Sturdivant. Team-high nine targets against Coastal Carolina with 136 receiving yards and a score. No other UCLA receiver was targeted more than three times. Through two weeks, San Diego State is allowing 20.3 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – QBs. Chip Kelly offering no clues as to who will start on Saturday, as well as stating that all three quarterbacks will play against SDSU. Two is probably more reasonable than all three playing, but guessing incorrectly on the starting QB will sink your roster immediately. Though we have a very good hunch that it will be the 5-star freshman getting the starting nod given what he displayed last weekend.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Would not consider anyone under $4.5k.
Pivot Play – RB Carson Steele ($6,700) Folks will be scared off by the potential backfield split with Steele and TJ Harden. Our fearless leader Joe is 100% convinced that this is/will be Carson Steele’s job at some point, as his 19.1 projection indicates. Here are the advantages for the Ball State transfer through one game. 38-23 snap count advantage and more usage in the passing game with four targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Logan Loya ($5,100) Loya ran the most routes of any wideout vs. Coastal Carolina, but the production was minimal with three targets. WR2 only averages around 40 targets per season in this run-based scheme so we’re avoiding anyone outside of Sturdivant. Loya, Kyle Ford and Kam Brown are all P5 transfer castoffs that have minimal production on their resume.
Injury Notes – n/a. On a closing note, I did find it funny that the UCLA beat writer predicted the final score of this contest to be 17-6. Not even remotely close to the Vegas implied total, but maybe we’re fools for analyzing this potentially low-scoring affair.