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Virginia vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -14.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: MD 32 – UVA 17.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($5,200) Just three UVA receivers have played more than 17 snaps this season, and that is reduced even smaller looking at the target share where Fields and fellow starter Malik Washington have combined for 30 of the 46 targets. Eight targets in each of the first two games for Fields who has been the most consistent of the bunch, and the team’s top red-zone threat at 6-foot-4.
Fade – RBs As of now, we don’t have a single UVA running back projected at more than 30 yards rushing for Friday. 3-4 backs will rotate in and out of the lineup, and the offensive line has been very poor to start the year, as they allowed 10 tackles for loss and four sacks against James Madison. Kobe Pace had a monster 75-yard touchdown reception that boosted his fantasy performance, but as a team, the Cavs rushed for 18 yards.
Bargain Bin – WR Demick Starling ($3,000) Zero receptions through two games for the sophomore, yet he’s been on the field for 63% of the team’s offensive snaps. I’m not considering anyone beyond the two top receivers for UVA, but if you’re a person that does 200 lineups, Starling can be in one.
Pivot Play – QB Anthony Colandrea ($5,200) TBD on whether Tony Muskett is back in the lineup this week, and we here at the CFFSite think they should slow-play the rehab process with how Colandrea played last week. Deemed a ‘gamer’ by the coaching staff, Colandrea combined for 377 total yards of offense and two touchdowns in the narrow loss to JMU, completing nearly 77% of his passes.
Best of the Rest – WR Malik Washington ($5,300) We mentioned the target funnel above between Washington and Fields. Despite Washington leading the team in receiving yards, I still like Fields as the better play between the two. 43% of Washington’s yardage came on just one play last week, and his aDOT of 8.4 doesn’t inspire many scoring opportunities unless UVA is consistently moving the ball down the field.
Injury Notes – QB Tony Muskett ($5,200) If and when Muskett is healthy, HC Tony Elliott has stated the job will be his, as you cannot lose a starting job to injury. Can envision a scenario where both quarterbacks play, diminishing the value for both.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – QB Taulia Tagovailoa ($9,600) The only reason Tagovailoa gets the top spot here over Hemby is the dearth of QB options on the slate. While the rush defense has been the primary issue for UVA, the secondary hasn’t been much better, allowing 24.5 FPPG through two games and 107th in success rate vs. the pass. Baby Tua will be looking for to have a much better outing than last week, throwing for two interceptions against Charlotte.
Fade – RB Colby McDonald ($5,200) McDonald had a breakout game against the 49ers with 73 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. The question is if McDonald remains as the RB2 for this matchup or relegated back to third string. Antwain Littleton was benched for a fumble inside the five-yard line, hence the emergence of McDonald last week.
Bargain Bin – WR Tai Felton ($4,900) Felton has played more offensive snaps than any Maryland skill position player outside of Tagovailoa and has run the most routes of any receiver on the roster.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($8,500) After we saw a near 50-50 split between Hemby and Antwain Littleton in Week 1, it was the redshirt sophomore carrying the load against Charlotte with 158 yards and a TD on 19 carries. Virginia has now given up the second most fantasy points to running backs in all of college football, just one spot behind North Texas, and are 131st in rush play success rate defensively. As long as Hemby gets the bulk of the work – not always a guarantee though – he should thrive in this matchup.
Best of the Rest – Maryland Pass Catchers – Pick your poison here because they’re all expensive and there is no established WR1 (yet) amongst the group. Four different pass-catchers – Dyches, Smith Jr., Prather and Jones – all have 11 targets or more on the year so this football is being spread around. Prather, the West Virginia transplant, had a strong performance against Charlotte with 80 yards and a touchdown. He should’ve had two TDs had a phantom penalty not called one back.
Injury Notes – WR Tyrese Chambers ($6,400) The FIU transfer missed last week, though not seeing a reason as to why (as of writing on Tuesday). Chambers isn’t in the top three at WR, so probably a fade regardless of if he plays.