To view Week 3 Player Projections,click here.
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here.
Florida State vs. Boston College
Point-Spread: FSU -26
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: FSU 37 – BC 11
Weather: 62 degrees / 49% rain / 26 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Trey Benson ($6,600) Some folks out there believe this is an RBBC, yet Benson is still commanding 43% of the backfield market share, so I question their analysis on that. After a quiet Week 1 performance, Benson rebounded with three rushing TDs vs. Southern Miss. I’m expecting another solid week against a Boston College defense that is allowing 43.3 FPPG to opposing backfields through two games and are 99th in rush play success rate.
Fade – WR Winston Wright ($5,800) Simply too expensive here. The Seminoles’ coaching staff is giving a lot of looks to some of the younger receivers early in the year, all of whom have been on the field equally as much and at a discounted price. Florida State is also featuring two-tight end sets with Jaheim Bell and Kyle Morlock more than running 3- or 4-wide at receiver which takes Wright off the field.
Bargain Bin – WR Darion Williamson ($3,800) After barely playing vs. LSU, Williamson ran the second most routes among FSU receivers against Southern Miss, converting on his two targets with a touchdown. Was this a result of Johnny Wilson’s poor showing or a sign of things to come? As we mentioned with Wright, we’re spending down on FSU receivers not names Johnny Wilson or Keon Coleman in a potential blowout situation.
Pivot Play – WR Johnny Wilson ($7,200) Rough outing Wilson against Southern Miss with zero catches on five targets. Didn’t watch this game and wasn’t credited with any drops on Pro Football Focus but sounds like Wilson had opportunities that he simply didn’t make last week. Practice reports suggest Wilson made up for that early in the week. Tough to fathom spending up to this price when Keon Coleman ($6,300) is $900 cheaper, but that just means lower ownership numbers. So far, the top two FSU receivers are dominating the target share at 50%.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,700) There’s another QB option we’ll mention later in this writeup that makes Travis’ pricing here attainable. And at a projection of 28 points, its more than reasonable to roster the senior QB. Boston College is allowing just 12.3 FPPG to QB1s through two games, but have faced Rocky Lombardi and an FCS quarterback, so take that number with a grain of salt. This implied team total for Florida State probably isn’t high enough to roster both Travis and Benson together so have to choose one.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($5,700) Considering Castellanos is the only BC player we have projected to score double-digit fantasy points; this was an easy selection. Reality is we’re not rostering anyone here with the low implied team total, particularly a quarterback, though Castellanos does have the one redeeming quality from a fantasy QB in that he can run – over 3,600 rushing yards in his high school career.
Fade – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($5,400) The only appeal here is that O’Keefe does get targets out of the slot which is more beneficial in DK’s full-point PPR format, as opposed to FD. But his utilization won’t generate a ton of fantasy value unless those targets increase exponentially, as O’Keefe is averaging just 7.1 YPC with a 2.4 aDOT. He would need at least five receptions probably to reach value.
Bargain Bin – WR Lewis Bond ($3,700) Appears as though Bond has taken over one of the outside starting receiver positions opposite Joseph Griffin and has been one of the few bright spots for BC with nine receptions on a team-high 14 targets.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Griffin ($5,100) To reiterate, we’re not playing anyone on the BC side. But the talented 6-foot-4 sophomore does lead all receivers in routes run for the Eagles and, unlike O’Keefe, doesn’t need a ton of targets to reach value. Averaged over 13 YPC last season. Just not in sync right now with the current crop of BC quarterbacks apparently with just eight targets.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not considering anyone not listed in this section.
Injury Notes – RB Pat Garwo ($5,600) was seen in a walking boot after just two carries last week. HC Jeff Hafley provided zero clarity. Wouldn’t consider Garwo if even healthy. RB Alex Broome ($5,000) did not play at all last week. Should neither player be available, Western Kentucky transfer Kye Robichaux ($4,700) would get the nod after rushing for 94 yards on 19 attempts last week. Advanced numbers are showing the BC run game to be performing far better than last year…so far. Difficulty of opponents the first two weeks must be taken into account.
Louisville vs. Indiana
Point-Spread: UL -10
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UL 30 – IU 20
Weather: 71 degrees / 3% rain / 3 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($5,300) DK apparently doesn’t know how to properly list Jeff Brohm WR1s. Take advantage this week as Thrash is arguably the top play on the slate given his pricing + projection. Unsurprisingly, the Georgia State transfer is dominating the target share (24%) – a number we expect to rise considerably with the competitive matchups ahead – and has three of the team’s five receiving touchdowns. FWIW, the Indiana secondary is playing well through two games, allowing just 11.8 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Marvin Harrison Jr. was nearly invisible in the Week 1 matchup, though much of that was due to poor QB play.
Fade – Isaac Guerendo ($4,600) Solid performance last week from the Wisconsin transplant, rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown, while adding four receptions in the passing game. The issue is Maurice Turner is coming back from injury and was considered the RB2 behind Jawhar Jordan pre-injury.
Bargain Bin – WR Jimmy Calloway ($4,100) Second on the team in both targets and routes run this season as he’s locked up the starting job opposite Thrash over sophomore Chris Bell. Just an eight-point projection, but if the secondary shades over to double Thrash, the former Tennessee transfer should benefit.
Pivot Play – RB Jawhar Jordan ($5,500) The overall numbers through two weeks are that Indiana has been far better against the run than the pass, ranking 75th in rush D success rate and 16.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Limited opportunities for Jordan with just seven carries in each of the first two games, and that might not change much with Turner back in the lineup as stated above, but his explosiveness is undeniable. Averaging 16 yards per carry.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Plummer ($6,600) Cheap enough to consider, and Plummer should throw the ball 30+ times this week in a relatively competitive matchup. We only have a 20-point projection here given the strength of the Indiana secondary (so far) so we don’t advise going overboard in rostering him in multiple lineups. WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,800) was in a heated battle for the starting slot with Kevin Coleman but seems to have separated himself ever so slightly from a playing time perspective. Wonder if that changes in the coming weeks as Coleman has been the more productive player. Since the passing game hasn’t taken flight just yet this season under Brohm, I’d heavily lean towards just one Louisville receiver in your lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylin Lucas ($4,700) Lucas won’t ever be a bell-cow with his stature at 170 pounds but is undoubtedly the team’s top playmaker on offense (with Camper not healthy). He showed that last week with over 100 total yards on just 14 touches. His versatility as a runner/receiver/returner is what brings value.
Fade – QB Tayven Jackson ($7,100) Jackson priced higher than Plummer is an interesting choice this week, despite the former Tennessee transfer being named the full-time starter moving forward, winning the competition with Brendan Sorsby. Did some good things against Indiana State in limited time, completing over 80% of his throws but we only have a 15-point projection here. I’d only consider if you truly think this IU/Louisville game could shoot out (it won’t). In terms of success rate against the pass, Louisville somehow ranks No. 1 in the country. We usually need three weeks of evidence before taking these advanced metrics to heart.
Bargain Bin –
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.