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Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Point-Spread: Wis -6
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: Wis 30 – Purd 24
Weather: 77 degrees / 7% rain / 10 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($7,900) As maddening as it can be to see Allen give way to backup Chez Mellusi countless times during a game or head to the injury tent as has been the case a few times during his career, Allen will continue to be the centerpiece of the Wisconsin offense. Didn’t see it as much against Georgia Southern, but Allen’s increased usage in the passing game is what raises the floor of his value, still in the team lead with 16 targets. Notable this week as LeQuint Allen was awesome catching the ball out of the backfield last week against the Boilermakers with 6-62-0.
Fade – WR Chimere Dike ($5,400) Dike should see low ownership which is the most appealing aspect of him on the slate. First in routes run on the team but sits fifth in targets because the ball is being spread around to six different receivers on a consistent basis. I’ll go to a value option before I roster Dike. Would say the biggest fade decision is multiple Wisconsin receivers in your lineup – that’s a death knell.
Bargain Bin – WR CJ Williams ($3,000) The former 4-star USC transfer continues to get rotational work in the starting lineup, targeted seven times in three games. Production has been minimal.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($8,700) Mordecai fits perfectly in the Big Ten. Run of the mill game manager that can distribute the ball effectively but is not going to solely win the Badgers any game by himself. The Purdue secondary has struggled mightily, though, in the early part of the season, ranking 82nd in Pass D success rate and have given up the 11th most fantasy points in college football to opposing quarterbacks so far. If there is a B1G matchup that Mordecai can find success, it would be this one.
Best of the Rest – RB Chez Mellusi ($6,000) This is Phil Longo’s version of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter which he had back at North Carolina a few years ago. Double-digit carries for Mellusi is going to happen weekly, whether we like it or not. Purdue is 49th in rush D success rate and allowing 16.1 FPPG to RB1s – which Mellusi is not. Don’t think we are seeing a Josh Downs-like player from Wisconsin this season in the Phil Longo scheme. WR Will Pauling ($4,900) is on the field a bunch but sharing targets/snaps with veteran Skyler Bell ($3,500). Bell is the far better value at $1.4k cheaper and has been targeted five times in each of the first three games.
Injury Notes – Just monitor Braelon Allen’s status pregame as it was mentioned by Luke Fickell that the RB1 was banged up in practice a few weeks ago, and then went to the injury tent vs. Georgia Southern multiple times.
Purdue:
Top Play(s) – WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($5,000) Game got out of hand a bit so Purdue was forced to throw the ball a bit more than usual, but Yaseen led the team with 10 receptions on 14 targets and is second to only Burks in routes run this season. We’ll get into some of the notes below as to why we’re leaning with a Purdue receiver as opposed to their workhorse running back.
Fade – RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5,200) The former Iowa transfer is actually tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns this season (3) and has the highest YPA average among Purdue RBs. I wonder if we actually do see more from Tracy in the coming weeks. That said, Devin Mockobee dominates the backfield market share still at nearly 60%. Should be $4.2k.
Bargain Bin – TE Max Klare ($4,800) Lowest you should go among Purdue players on DK. Don’t know much about the redshirt freshman tight end still; that might need to change with the way Klare is performing with 13 receptions on 15 targets in the last two games alone. The previous staff under Jeff Brohm was known for utilizing the tight end position, not so much current OC Graham Harrell, so this is a bit of a surprise. Wisconsin allowed a TD last week to Georgia Southern tight end Jjay McAfee.
Pivot Play – Multiple Purdue pass-catchers. Purdue hasn’t really shown it can run the football effectively through three games, averaging just 3.4 YPC as a team and are 108th in rush play success rate. Offensive line appears to be the source of the issues, ranking 103rd in line yards and 125th in success rate. While the Badgers aren’t overwhelming on defense against the run, their front seven should hold the advantage in this matchup. Given Purdue as an Air Raid system already built in, combined with being a near touchdown underdog, this could set up like last week with the Boilermakers throwing the ball 40+ times. Purdue isn’t rotating at receiver, so rostering Yaseen, Klare, Deion Burks ($5,300) or TJ Sheffield ($5,100) is viable.
Best of the Rest – RB Devin Mockobee ($6,600) Writing this pre-projection release, but in comparison to Mockobee’s props, he’s listed at just 49.5 rushing yards for Friday. And it hasn’t moved up much, if at all. We already noted the struggles above on the Purdue offensive line. RB1s are averaging just 13.1 FPPG against the Badgers through three games. Because of Mockobee’s surefire workload of 18 touches a game, he’s a high floor low ceiling play.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: NC St -9.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: NC St 28.5 – UVA 19
Weather: 68 degrees / 7% rain / 12 mph winds