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Florida State vs. Clemson
Point-Spread: FSU -2
O/U Total: 55
Implied Score: FSU 28.5 – Clem 26.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 7% rain / 7 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($6,700) Have a feeling this will be a better football game to watch as opposed to from a fantasy perspective with the game total already dropping a point since Sunday open. When that’s the case, we’ll avoid game stacking here and just select individual pieces from this game with top-tier talent. With Jordan Travis’ skyrocketed pricing, we’ll side with Coleman here who stepped up big time in the last big matchup FSU played this season with three TDs against LSU. Game script played a major part, but Florida Atlantic’s Lajohntay Wester had a ton of success against this Clemson D last week with 12 receptions and 100+ receiving yards.
Fade – RB Lawrance Toafili ($5,400) Toafili gets decent usage in the passing game, sitting fourth on the team with eight targets, but that’s the extent of his value in a big matchup like this. Not rostering a guy that averages eight touches a game at this pricing. Toafili has just two red-zone carries on 17 attempts.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,600) Best game of the season last week for the South Carolina transfer with 76 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Always the off chance that we see Bell get a red-zone carry like we did in the LSU matchup too. The trio of Coleman, Bell and WR2 Johnny Wilson ($6,600) are combining for 60% of the target share after three weeks, so you’re unlikely to be investing in any FSU receivers/tight ends outside this group.
Pivot Play – RB Trey Benson ($6,800) The FSU passing game has been as advertised with the additions of Coleman and Bell to the lineup, but for the Seminoles to truly reach their title aspirations in 2023, I think they have to get their stud RB1 going in the backfield. Benson was the nation’s leader in tackles avoided last season. He’s only avoided six tackles through three games. With the schedule ramping up, do we see FSU making a more concerted effort to get Benson the football in space? Clemson allowed a combined 30 fantasy points to Duke running backs in Week 1.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,400) I just think the pricing is too high here for Travis in a game that probably doesn’t end up in a shootout, if Vegas has pegged this correctly. Unlikely to find a winning lineup if rostering both Travis and a Bo Nix at $9.6k, and if you’re spending up for one of those two, it’ll be the Oregon QB. Decent 25.4-point projection so a high floor, but probably won’t surpass value at his pricing.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($5,700) Hopefully no repercussions from the heated debated between Shipley vs. RB coach CJ Spiller video that made the Twitter (X) rounds last week as the Clemson RB1 was pulled out of the game after being stopped near the goal-line. I would imagine Shipley is frustrated by his usage in the red-zone, giving way to backup Phil Mafah ($4,900) around the goal-line. Mafah has nine red-zone carries vs. just seven for Shipley. Me thinks he finds the end-zone this week to put this minor controversy to bed. Florida State has been leaky against the run so far, allowing four running backs to hit double-digit fantasy points already.
Fade – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,400) Very disappointing start for Briningstool coming out of the gates this season with just seven receptions on 11 targets. Garrett Riley hasn’t featured the tight end position much at his previous stops, but there was 50+ vacated targets at the position with Davis Allen graduating, and Briningstool is a massive target at 6-foot-6. Still holding out hope they find more ways to get him the football. Third among Clemson pass-catchers in targets and routes run.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Brown ($4,500) Breakout performance from Brown last week with two receiving touchdowns against Florida Atlantic. Trouble is that he plays in the slot along with Antonio Williams ($5,200), but Riley has indicated he’s going to continue to find ways for the two to play together at the same time. Remember TCU last season with Taye Barber and Derius Davis. Same dynamic here.
Pivot Play – WR Beaux Collins ($4,900) Team leader in routes run and second in targets with 18. Drops continue to plague Collins, but he’s on the field a ton and capable of a big play, averaging 15.2 yards per catch. This is not a game stack situation in my opinion, so would not roster more than one Clemson pass-catcher in a lineup. WR1s are averaging 16.5 FPPG against the Seminoles so far, with four different receivers hitting double-digit fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,300) Far from perfect, but you see improvements with each week from Klubnik and the passing game. Seven touchdowns in the last two weeks, and really forced the football downfield a bit more last week against FAU with an 8.8 average depth of target. You wonder if Clemson/Riley will get Klub on the move a bit more on Saturday as dual-threats have given the FSU defense some trouble so far with Jayden Daniels and Thomas Castellanos combined for 55 fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech vs. Marshall
Point-Spread: Mar -4.5
O/U Total: 41
Implied Score: Mar 23 – VT 19
Weather: 69 degrees / 8% rain / 8 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($5,800) How much can Drones get done through the air is the question here, because we know he’s an exceptional athlete. Hence why we have a 24-point projection here after he rushed for 74 yards on 22 attempts last week against a good Rutgers defense. The Herd have only played two games thus far – one against an FCS team and then two weeks ago vs. an inept offense in East Carolina. That said, Marshall allowed 132 yards on five rushing attempts to Mason Garcia. Albany QB1 Reese Poffenbarger rushed for 87 yards on four carries. Could be opportunities for Drones on the ground.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($4,600) Seems as though the only way Thomas will be relevant this season is if Bhayshul Tuten ($5,200) suffers an injury as he’s holding a 2-1 advantage on rushing attempts. Realistically both players are a fade as neither is averaging more than three yards per carry on the season. Va Tech is 121st in rush success rate, and the offensive line has played poorly, ranking 124th in line yards and 113th in stuff rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,000) Wright is only an option if you have the perfect lineup and need a min priced filler. With the depleted receiving corps, the athletic sophomore tight end has caught four passes in each of the last two games, targeted 12 times in that span.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,000) We’ll have to double check this one in the pregame, but sounds as though Lane will play on Saturday as he was practicing this week. The Middle Tennessee transfer was very good in the first two weeks, finding the end-zone in each game with a combined 13 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Da’Quan Felton ($4,900) Season-high six receptions on 10 targets for the 6-foot-5 Norfolk State transfer who will take Ali Jennings spot as the top outside receiver in his absence. The issue this week is that Marshall has one of the best G5 corners to defend him in Micah Abraham. Could be a difficult matchup. The other cornerbacks on the roster do not grade out as well, which could set up a favorable matchup for someone like Lane inside in the slot.
Injury Notes – QB Grant Wells ($5,800) Coaching staff said there is a chance Wells could play on Saturday but feels unlikely at this point. I think this staff was ready to turn the job over to Drones regardless. WR Ali Jennings ($6,200) is officially doubtful with a foot injury, but he’s expected to miss multiple weeks. Don’t expect him to play.
Marshall:
Top Play(s) – RB Rasheen Ali ($6,000) Stating the obvious that Ali is Marshall’s top play on offense. The question is if he’s a top play for this slate. We know the volume Marshall RB1s get. We saw it two years ago with Ali, and then just this past season with Khalan Laborn. They get fed the rock repeatedly. Still early to take the advanced data as bible, but the Hokies do not grade out well defending the run, ranking 121st in rush D success rate and giving up 22.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. 21.5-point projection puts Ali in play here, but not a lock.
Fade – QB Cam Fancher ($5,500) Fancher is a dual-threat that will be an option on a 3- or 4-game DFS slate. Not a 14 gamer. His 8.2-yard average depth of targets is tied for the lowest among G5 quarterbacks. Marshall does not trust Fancher to push the ball downfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Cade Conley ($3,700) OC Clint Trickett is a former tight ends coach and has featured the position during his tenure at Marshall, most notably Xavier Gaines in 2021. Conley, a Central Michigan transfer, leads the team with nine receptions and tied for a team-high in targets (10).
Pivot Play – Marshall WRs. The Herd are 30th nationally in rush play percentage (56%) and just two passing touchdowns in two games. If you were risky enough to roster a Marshall receiver in your lineup, I would suggest just one at a maximum. Kentucky transfer DeMarcus Harris ($4,000), Caleb McMillan ($3,900) and Charles Montgomery ($4,300) comprise the starting trio.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Realistically would not consider anyone outside of Rasheen Ali here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: OU -14
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: OU 36 – Cin 22
Weather: 73 degrees / 1% rain / 9 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s)–
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