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Clemson vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Clem -6.5
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: Clem 30 – Syra 23
Weather: Dome
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Will Shipley ($5,900) The touchdown equity for Shipley remains a frustration, with just one rushing score compared to three for backup Phil Mafah. His touch counts last week against Florida State, though, were promising with a 19-10 advantage in rushing attempts, and a chunk of Mafah’s carries came when Shipley was forced off the field with a stinger. The Syracuse front ranks similarly to the opponent, allowing just 11.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 15th in rush D success rate. Not a must-have in your lineups, but Shipley’s increased usage last week is promising.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($4,700) The former 5-star has the stat lines of a walk-on through the first month of the season with just seven receptions on 11 targets. I’ll give Randall a slight boost in that he played 68 of 82 offensive snaps last week in Clemson’s most competitive game of the season. But he seems to be the fourth option at best in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Brown ($4,800) Antonio Williams might want to get back sooner rather than later because the freshman is pushing for that starting slot receiver job if he hasn’t won it outright already. Biggest difference for me between the two is Brown is now averaging 16.5 YPC in the last two weeks where Williams didn’t even his 11 YPC in 2022. Different system, sure, but Brown is a clear difference maker. Value obviously downgraded slightly if Williams is available Saturday.
Pivot Play – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,600) Briningstool hasn’t been the fantasy difference maker at the tight end position we expected in the preseason, but he now has three receptions in each of the last three contests. Syracuse has allowed multiple tight ends this season – Max Klare and Austin Hence – to top 11 fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,500) Notable improvements each week from Klubnik, though plenty of learning on the job, such as not checking into a wide receiver screen on 4th-and-1 instead of QB sneaking up the middle. 23.4-point projection keeps Klubnik in the conversation, but a tough matchup against a Syracuse secondary that is allowing just 11.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Injury Notes – WR Antonio Williams ($5,500) Maybe there is a Clemson fan page that knows more about this situation, but as it stands now, Williams looks to be doubtful with an ankle injury. Dabo Swinney stated this week that Williams is doing everything he can to play and living in the weight room, but no official update outside of that.
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($5,700) Rolling with Allen over Shrader here given the surplus of quarterbacks on the slate to spend up or down on. The Clemson defense is 29th in rush D success rate, allowing just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. What aides Allen’s value is his abilities in the passing game, now with 11 receptions on 12 targets in the last three games. Sean Tucker was featured heavily in the passing game a year ago in this matchup with five receptions and a touchdown as Syracuse ditched the run game mostly.
Fade – RB Juwaun Price ($4,700) Running room will be tough to come by for LeQuint Allen on Saturday, so we won’t even consider his backup. Allen dominates the volume share among Syracuse running backs at 54%.
Bargain Bin – WR Donovan Brown ($4,800) Increased usage from the wide receivers for the Cuse this season with Oronde Gadsden out for the season with injury. The redshirt freshman has arguably been Syracuse’s most consistent receiver since the onset of the season with at least 50 yards receiving in all four games. Tied for the team lead with 17 receptions and the most routes run of any wideout.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,400) Looking back to last season’s matchup, Shrader threw for just 170 yards and a touchdown, but accounted for 21 of the team’s 27 total carries in that game. Does Syracuse take a similar approach against this stingy Clemson front? The Tigers are allowing 18.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s, so not necessarily dominant defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Damien Alford ($5,800) Alford leads the team with 25 targets and his production has skyrocketed in the last two games with 18 of those targets coming in that span. Over 200 receiving yards in the last two weeks. WR Umari Hatcher ($5,200) is a close third in routes run for the Orange, but his production has fallen off since Week 2. Did find the end-zone against Army last week on five targets. Notable that while his production took a dip, his playing time has remained consistent. He’s on the field a lot.
Injury Notes – WR Isaiah Jones ($5,300) Was not dressed in warmups last week and we currently have a zero projection for him. Unsure of his status but is part of the four-man WR rotation when healthy. This is likely the reason for Alford’s outburst the last two games, so Jones playing would impact his value.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: A&M -6
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: A&M 30 – Ark 24
Weather: Dome
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Evan Stewart ($7,200) The concern here is only if Stewart has the same WR-QB connection with Max Johnson that he does with Conner Weigman who is now out for the season. Stewart had a season-low three receptions on three targets last week against Auburn, though the game didn’t dictate a ton of passing with Auburn being so inept offensively. Still managed to find the end-zone and is the team leader in every receiving category.
Fade – WR Ainias Smith ($5,200) Roll of the dice here in fading Smith as he’s been an integral part of the passing attack the last two games, specifically, with over 200 receiving yards on 18 targets. The issue is that all of that production came without WR/TE hybrid Noah Thomas ($5,600) in the lineup due to injury. Jimbo Fisher stated that Thomas is good to go for Saturday’s matchup, convoluting the possible target share among the secondary receivers.
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Johnson ($3,800) Brotherly bonds are inseparable. And the QB-TE duo is one of actual blood brothers. Was on display last week with Johnson nabbing a 30-yard receiving TD.
Pivot Play – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,400) Fisher said Moss’ 15 carries last week were a product of the sophomore running back finally being 100% healthy. Hard to imagine that Amari Daniels ($5,400) goes by the waste side as he’s been performing well as the starter up to this point, averaging over six yards per attempt, but there was a massive disparity in rushing attempts between the two last week. Something to monitor moving forward.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Johnson ($8,200) Johnson played well in relief of Conner Weigman last week, completing 7-of-11 passes for 123 yards and two scores. The Razorbacks are only allowing 17.9 FPPG to opposing QBs this season but haven’t gone through a gauntlet of top-tier QBs. Arkansas is just 82nd in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,200) The Arkansas receiving corps was a complete unknown entering 2023 having to replace five of their top six pass catchers. The Razorbacks appear to have a legitimate WR1 now in Armstrong who has hit 70 receiving yards in three of the first four games this season. The former Division III transfer is a massive target at 6-foot-4, leading the team in targets (29), receptions (24) and his aDOT (average depth of target) is second on the team at 12.4 yards. Game environment sets up nicely as well for Armstrong, playing in a dome environment at Jerry World and with Arkansas entering a near-touchdown underdog.
Fade – RB AJ Green ($5,300) See below on injury notes.
Bargain Bin – WR Isaac TeSlaa ($4,500) Arkansas lacks considerable depth at the wide receiver position, resulting in a top-heavy target share between Armstrong and TeSlaa at 50%. If Arkansas is throwing the football, it is likely going in one of three directions between those two and the freshman tight end we’ll spotlight below. TeSlaa is averaging 13.4 YPC and a higher aDOT (13.3) than Armstrong.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,300) No surprise there was a small adjustment period with Jefferson and new offensive coordinator Dan Enos, which came to a head in the loss to BYU. Despite throwing a pair of interceptions and being sacked four times, Jefferson seemed to find a groove in the second half against LSU last week with a pair of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. The Texas A&M defense has been excellent against the pass this season, but against the one comparably offense in Miami back in Week 2, this secondary was shredded by Tyler Van Dyke.
Best of the Rest – TE Luke Hasz ($5,000) Ranks sixth among all tight ends in college football with a PFF receiving grade of 88.5 after his performance last week against LSU, now with three receiving touchdowns in the last two games. Lack of depth at receiver also contributed to Hasz mini breakout of late.
Injury Notes – RB Raheim Sanders ($5,600) We don’t have an official designation for Rocket Sanders entering Saturday’s contest, but the senior running back has participated in practice for three-straight days which is all but assuring he’ll play vs. A&M. While AJ Green has been putting up respectable numbers as the de facto starter, Sanders will retain his RB1 status. As for the matchup, I’d steer clear as A&M is allowing just 8.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and we don’t know for certain Rocket will get his normal 20 touches a game.
Florida vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -1.5
O/U Total: 44
Implied Score: UK 23 – Fla 21
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) –
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