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Notre Dame vs. Duke
Point-Spread: ND -5.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: ND 29 – Duke 23.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($7,900) The usage was frustrating last week with backups Jeremiyah Love and Gi’Bran Payne combining for 14 carries and the latter finding the end-zone. Estime ran well, though, averaging 5.0 yards per carry against a good Ohio State defensive front. The Irish should hold the advantage in the trenches where Duke is allowing 20.9 FPPG to opposing backfields and rank 115th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Jadarian Price ($4,800) Price has seemingly been relegated to fourth-string duties now behind Estime, Payne, and Love with just three carries in each of the last two weeks. Still averaging a healthy six yards per attempt but expect ND to lean on their star running back in a crucial matchup on Saturday evening.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,700) Flores Jr. should get the starting nod opposite Tobias Merriweather ($4,400) should Jayden Thomas miss the game. Ran the third most routes among Irish receivers last week, catching a touchdown on four targets. He was far more effective than Merriweather who had just one lone target.
Pivot Play – TE Mitchell Evans ($4,800) Best performance of the season last week for Evans, converting on all seven of his targets for 75 yards, including a sick one-handed catch against the Buckeyes. Have to imagine Hartman looking towards his trusted tight end more often on Saturday with multiple receivers out with injury. No tight end has scored more than five fantasy points in a game vs. Duke this season, fwiw.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam Hartman (8,900) Hartman had a lot of success against Duke during his time at Wake Forest, completing 64% of his throws for 749 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception. This is a better secondary than he faced in either contest, ranking 11th in pass D success rate and giving up 11.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Add in ND will likely be down two wide receivers.
Injury Notes – WR Jayden Thomas ($5,600) Notre Dame spreads the ball around enough for us to remove Thomas from consideration this week. Marcus Freeman calls Thomas “questionable to doubtful.” WR Deion Colzie ($4,000) will not play either.
Duke:
Top Play(s) – QB Riley Leonard ($6,900) Ah, we’ve hit that time of year where the front page of the Duke sports section is a picture of Jon Scheyer, the men’s basketball coach, despite having an undefeated football team heading into its biggest matchup of the season. As we saw last Saturday night, this is one of the better secondaries in the country for the Irish, ranking just below Duke at No. 12 in pass D success rate. Luckily for Leonard, he doesn’t need just his arm to rack up fantasy production.
Fade – RB Jordan Waters ($5,900) Waters has been awesome this season, finding the end-zone in every contest, and two or more rushing TDs in each of the last two games. The problem is Jaylen Coleman is back healthy, making this a three-headed backfield that also shares carries with Leonard. Opposing backfields are only averaging a combined 19.3 FPPG against the Irish this season. That average split four ways potentially spells trouble.
Bargain Bin – WR Sahmir Hagans ($3,400) A distant third among the Duke receivers, but the good news is there is no fourth option. Centralized target share for the Blue Devils, with Hagans now third on the team with 12 targets this season.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,700) In general, this is a very strong Irish secondary, but the outside corners are the team’s strength. The weak link would be at nickel corner who would matchup with Calhoun in the slot. Should not come as a surprise then that Emeka Egbuka, who played 76% of his reps last week inside, was the featured option with seven receptions on 10 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Jordan Moore ($5,300) Related to the Calhoun conversation above, Moore is likely to be matched up with Benjamin Morrison, Notre Dame’s top cornerback who limited Marvin Harrison Jr. to just 3-32-0 on seven targets. Calhoun is the preferred option if choosing a Duke receiver. TE Nicky Dalmolin ($3,600) now has three receptions in each of the last two games. Ohio State’s Cade Stover was targeted 10 times last week.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: UT -12
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: UT 37 – SC 25
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
South Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Legette ($6,100) Simply too cheap for the nation’s leader in receiving yards. This is an average SEC secondary, ranking 67th in pass D success rate – it’ll just be a matter of if South Carolina gives Spencer Rattler enough time in the pocket to get the ball out to his WR1. The Gamecocks are dead last in the SEC in sacks allowed this season.
Fade – RB Dakereon Joyner ($5,600) Joyner is a tremendous asset and leader to any college football program, but he is NOT a bellcow running back. That was proven after averaging just 2.6 yards per carry through four games. Was relegated to just 22 of 70 offensive snaps last week in the win over Mississippi State.
Bargain Bin – WR O’Mega Blake ($3,500) I really hope this play does not come to fruition because I’ve hammered the under on his 42.5-yard receiving prop. That said, Blake has seen a lot of on-field work the last two weeks, playing over 75% of the offensive snaps. Minimal production, but he’s on the field in a pass-first offense.
Pivot Play – RB Mario Anderson ($4,400) Taking a wait and see approach here with Anderson who stepped in last week to rush for 88 yards and a touchdown in the win over MSU. Best rushing performance of the season, by far, for a Gamecocks running back, but it took 26 carries (3.4 YPC) to get it done. South Carolina is still bottom third nationally in rushing, facing a Tennessee defense that is 13th in rush D success rate. Anderson should see the most carries of any SC running back, but cannot guarantee it’ll be all that effective.
Best of the Rest – QB Spencer Rattler ($7,300) The Vols are allowing just 11.3 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Really strong number. The QBs they’ve faced? Graham Mertz, Eddie Lee Marburger, Tony Muskett and whoever plays quarterback for Austin Peay. South Carolina is 28th in pass play percentage this season and are a double-digit road underdog. Rattler will be chuckin’ it.
Injury Notes – WR Ahmarean Brown ($5,300) After missing the last two games, Brown has reportedly practiced all week and will be available. Was targeted 11 times in the first two weeks and should start ahead of Eddie Lewis in the slot.
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) –
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