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Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee
Point-Spread: MTSU -3.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: MTSU 27.5 – JSU 24
Weather: 72 degrees / 4% rain / 7 mph winds
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – QB Logan Smothers ($7,100) Should be the player you have the highest exposure to on the slate. 27 or more fantasy points scored in three of the last four games played after snatching the starting QB job away from last year’s starter Zion Webb. The former Nebraska transfer is a perfect fit in Rich Rodriguez’ offensive system which heavily emphasizes the quarterback position in the run game. Middle Tennessee is allowing 31.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks – second most in the entire country.
Fade – RB Anwar Lewis ($4,700) Was projected to be the team’s opening day starter after rushing for 846 yards and eight scores last season, but injuries kept Lewis out of the first four games this season. Looks as though the coaching staff is easing Lewis back with four carries last week against Sam Houston State. Unfortunately, injuries lead to opportunity for others and while we believe we’ll see an uptick in usage moving forward from Lewis, he’s likely not earning that RB1 job back anytime soon.
Bargain Bin – WR Perry Carter ($4,000) Team leader in targets (20) who has steadily seen his playing time increase over the last three games. Carter has been more effective of late than fellow slot receiver Sterling Galban ($4,900), despite the latter still being listed as the starter.
Pivot Play – WR Quinton Lane ($5,500) Team leader in receptions (12) with a 12.7 YPC average and 13.3 aDOT, tops on the team among wide receivers. Not surprisingly for a team so bad at defending the pass, Middle Tennessee is allowing over 21 fantasy points to opposing WR1s this season. Lane will see very low ownership in GPPs. You’ll need a touchdown, though, to pay off this salary as Jacksonville State is not a high-volume passing offense, throwing the football just 37% of the time – 125th nationally.
Best of the Rest – RB Malik Jackson ($6,900) Feel free to pair up Smothers and Jackson in the same lineup with how much Jacksonville State prefers to keep the ball on the ground. Jackson accounted for 65% of the rushing attempts that have gone to Jacksonville State running backs in the last two weeks. Increased usage in the passing game as well with 13 targets in the last three games. TE Sean Brown ($4,500) caught a touchdown last week vs. Sam Houston State. Minimal targets this season but Middle Tennessee is allowing the 10th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends.
Injury Notes – n/a
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Metcalf ($6,000) Turns out Metcalf is who we thought DJ England-Chisolm would be this season. MTSU has had a ton of success over the years with the small, shifty slot receivers, and Metcalf fits the same mold at 5-foot-9, 167 pounds. 25 targets in the last two games alone.
Fade – RBs. We’re getting a split backfield between NIU transfer Jaiden Credle and Frank Peasant, facing the best rush defense in Conference USA, allowing just 2.63 YPC and are ranked No. 1 in defensive rush play success rate in the country. That’s due in part to facing five opponents who rank bottom third nationally in rushing, but still impressive, nonetheless. MTSU fits into the category as well, ranking 115th in rush play success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any MTSU players under $5k.
Pivot Play – QB Nicholas Vattiato ($6,900) I thought I’d be coming here to write about Vattiato and potential game script with MTSU as underdogs. To my surprise, the Blue Raiders are actually favored on Wednesday. I’m assuming that is just because they’re at home, because Jacksonville State has had the better season, has the QB advantage and a MAJOR advantage on defense. So despite the Vegas line, I believe game script will force Vattiato to throw the ball 30+ times this week
Best of the Rest – WR Holden Willis ($5,600) 18 of Willis’ 22 targets have come in the last two weeks. Listed as a WR, the 218-pound former South Florida transfer really functions as a TE-hybrid coming out of the slot that has surpassed Jeremy Tate on the depth chart with his recent play. WR Justin Olson ($5,400) is a North Carolina transfer that has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, seeing a season-high eight targets vs. Western Kentucky. MTSU generally rotates 5-6 receivers on a consistent basis, but the trio of Olson, Willis and Metcalf have easily been the most productive of the group.
Injury Notes – n/a
Sam Houston State vs. Liberty
Point-Spread: Lib -18.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Lib 32 – SHSU 13.5
Weather: 72 degrees / 4% rain / 1 mph winds
Sam Houston State:
Top Play(s) – RB John Gentry ($5,200) Offensive explosion last week for SHSU, who entered the Jacksonville State matchup having scored just one offensive touchdown in four games. The Bearkats quadrupled that number against what had been one of the better defenses in Conference USA in the Gamecocks. Liberty isn’t far behind Jacksonville State in conference defensive rankings, allowing nearly double the yards per carry on the ground in 2023. A tad inflated given Liberty has faced a far more difficult schedule but should be a decent matchup for former Utah State transfer John Gentry who racked up 35 touches in last week’s loss. Added bonus with his usage in the passing game with 10 targets in the last two weeks. Liberty is allowing just 10.5 FPPG this season to RB1s.
Fade – QB Keegan Shoemaker ($5,200) On the verge of being replaced by Gunner Gunnell, Shoemaker had his best performance of the season with 290 passing yards and two scores last week. Maybe he’s turned a corner this season, but we still project him a distant fourth among the four QB options on the slate. Liberty is allowing just 14.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 40th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Phillips ($3,700) Appears as though Phillips has taken Adeyi’s spot in the starting lineup as he played the second most offensive snaps of any wide receiver against Jacksonville State and was targeted a season-high four times.
Pivot Play – WR Noah Smith ($4,700) Smith is the guy in the SHSU passing game now that fellow receiver Ife Adeyi is out for the season due to injury. That was on display last week as Smith had a season-high 10 receptions on 12 targets. The only other healthy player on the roster with double-digit targets this season is RB John Gentry.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Would not roster anyone outside the four players listed above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Liberty:
Top Play(s) –
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