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Oklahoma vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -5.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Tex 33 – OU 27.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,900) Initially was thinking that I’d be fading Gabriel, and probably still will, but his 29.8-point projection is very intriguing, particularly as a low-owned option that he’ll be on Saturday. OU is top two in every advanced passing metric this season and game script should favor Gabriel throwing the ball as a near-touchdown underdog. With how OU spreads the ball around to its pass-catchers, don’t feel the need to stack Gabriel with any Sooner receiver either. The Longhorns are allowing just 11.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s so far.
Fade – RBs. Don’t care who’s available and who isn’t, nor do I care about the prices. The RB rotations have been a mess all season, and we don’t know the status of the team’s best running back. Texas is allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing backfields and are No. 3 in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Nic Anderson ($4,800) We have seen separation in Big 12 play among the OU receivers, not rotating 7-8 guys in and out of the lineup like they did in the non-con. But instead of a top three like I’d initially thought, it looks to be four as 4-star freshman Nic Anderson has forced his way into the conversation. Five receiving touchdowns in the last three games, seeing the most playing time he has all season last week against Iowa State.
Pivot Play – WR Andrel Anthony ($6,100) Folks will be down on Anthony after being targeted just once last week vs. Iowa State. But if there is a difference maker at receiver that boosts OU the most to a potential victory, it’ll be Anthony. Zero relevance to Saturday, but his Michigan performance in a major rivalry game against MSU on the road will always stick in my head. Bright lights brings out the best in Anthony?
Best of the Rest – WR Jalil Farooq ($6,300) Like the trajectory here for Farooq with 23 of his 27 targets coming in the last three games. That’s what happens with the condensed rotation for OU receivers. Just not sure there is slate-breaking potential here vs. Andrel Anthony. If you stack OU receivers, its imperative in having multiple Texas options on the other side of your lineup.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes ($5,900) Remember that foot injury Barnes suffered in the offseason? Doesn’t appear to be fully healthy still, with HC Brent Venables calling it “a funky thing.” Have not seen a status update as of Friday as to his availability.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,300) Worthy has found the end-zone in both meetings with the Sooners in his college career, including his best performance in a Longhorns uniform with 9-261-2 as a freshman in 2021. The OU secondary is playing at an elite level, ranking 11th in pass D success rate, but have allowed six different receivers to hit double-digit fantasy points against them already.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,700) Only argument I can make for Whittington here is he’ll see increased usage over the middle of the field with a less-than-100 percent Ja’Tavion Sanders and the Sooners’ defense playing two-high safeties to account for Worthy and Mitchell. Less than 20 yards receiving in each of the last three games. Whittington needs volume to be a productive fantasy option and he’s unlikely to get it with all the weapons Texas has.
Bargain Bin – Keilan Robinson ($3,300) A friend of a friend that is a huge Texas fan relayed to me that he expects Keilan Robinson to be a factor on Saturday. Why is not exactly known to me. But the former Alabama transfer did play a critical role in last year’s Red River Rivalry with 60 total yards and a touchdown.
Pivot Play – WR Adonai Mitchell ($5,400) Season-highs last week for Mitchell with 10-141-1 on 13 targets in the win over Kansas. An ailing Ja’Tavion Sanders opens up the possibility for more usage with all of the Texas receivers, particularly if he plays a decoy role only.
Best of the Rest – RB Jonathon Brooks ($6,700) Was a debate for me to choose either Worthy or Brooks as the top play for the Longhorns. Just think this could be tough sledding for Brooks to find running room against a stout OU front that is allowing just 7.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s so far and are 23rd in rush D success rate. Brooks has been arguably the best back in the entire country the last few weeks so wouldn’t shock me to see him hit the century mark again, but this’ll be the toughest test to date. QB Quinn Ewers ($8,600) scored 31 fantasy points at Alabama, so he’s capable against any defense. I’ll probably have low exposure here, though, against a defense that is allowing just 12.2 FPPG.
Injury Notes – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,900) A little bit of he said, she said here. According to the Texas 247 beat writer, Sanders has not participated or been limited in practice all week. Message boarders are saying they know the Sanders family and that someone said he’ll play. Sarkisian says Sanders is ready to roll. 95% chance Sanders is suited up and will play Saturday. How effective he’ll be is anyone’s guess.
LSU vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: LSU -5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: LSU 35 – Mizzou 30
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,100) and/or Malik Nabers ($6,500) Unsure why DK priced two of the best receivers in the country so cheap. Must have one in your lineup or stack both together – both viable options here against a Missouri defense that ranks 72nd in pass D success rate and allowing a combined 44.6 FPPG to opposing WR groups. LSU is also depleted at receiver behind Thomas/Nabers as both Chris Hilton and Aaron Anderson will not play on Saturday. Assuming Missouri keeps this game within striking distance, Nabers and Thomas will play the entire game.
Fade – RB John Emery ($4,400) The LSU backfield rotation from last year has evaporated. Logan Diggs played 58 of the 76 offensive snaps against Ole Miss last week and backup running backs have combined for just eight rushing attempts of the last two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,500) We have not seen the sophomore jump that was expected from Taylor in 2023, though a lot of that has to do with the excellence of Nabers and Thomas. That said, we’ve seen a small uptick in production since returning from a Week 3 injury, now targeted five times in each of the last two games. Missouri allowed 24.2 fantasy points earlier in the year to Ben Sinnott.
Pivot Play – WR Kyren Lacy ($5,200) Limited depth at the wide receiver position as we noted above, so expect Lacy to play at least 3/4s of the game on Saturday. Was targeted four times against Ole Miss, notching 51 yards and a touchdown. Would imagine less than 2% ownership for Lacy in most contests.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Daniels ($9,000) Very average Missouri secondary facing one of the best quarterbacks in college football. We mentioned Mizzou’s pass D success rate above. The Tigers are allowing 23 FPPG to opposing QB1s with four different QBs hitting 20 fantasy points or more against them. That list includes Seth Henigan, Nick Vatttiato, Will Howard and Ken Seals – none of which are in the stratosphere of Daniels. RB Logan Diggs ($6,200) is getting the large majority of playing time in the LSU backfield the last few weeks. With the way the passing game is clicking, Diggs will have numerous scoring opportunities. That said, Missouri ranks No. 6 nationally in rush D success rate.
Injury Notes – WR Chris Hilton ($4,800) Downgraded to doubtful per Brian Kelly.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($6,900) No brainer. I don’t think you’d get much of an argument if stating that Burden has been the best receiver in college football in 2023. And now gets an LSU secondary that is 108th in pass D success rate and allowing 24 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – RB Nathaniel Peat ($5,600) Just too high a price for a backup running back, though Peat has forced his way into a backfield rotation that is now a 60-40 split.
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($4,800) The former 4-star recruit and Ohio State transfer is starting to live up to his recruiting profile, now with 50+ receiving yards in each of the last three games. Not sure what changed since the start of the year, but 14 of Cooper’s 15 targets have come in that stretch despite his playing time not fluctuating when compared to the first two games.
Pivot Play – QB Brady Cook ($7,400) Our fearless leader Joe was high on Brady Cook in the preseason, which was the correct call, but not for reasons that we expected. The QB1 was limited earlier in the year due to injury and seems to have affected his ability to run, now with just 66 rushing yards on 29 attempts. Hasn’t mattered as far as his fantasy output, now with multiple 30-point performances in the last three games. Strength of schedule for Missouri in the first five games could be the counterargument against Cook this week, but we noted the LSU defensive metrics above.
Best of the Rest – RB Cody Schrader ($6,900) Schrader’s prop line has dropped since the open, but have to imagine that’s more to do with Peat’s inclusion in the backfield rotation rather than the matchup. Because the matchup with LSU is favorable for the Mizzou RB1. 15.9 FPPG allowed to opposing starting running backs and are 115th in rush D success rate. We have not seen the RBs featured as much in the passing game this year, but Schrader is capable. WR Theo Wease ($5,500) was routinely a fade for us at Oklahoma, but that is no longer the case as a competent side kick to Burden. 26 of his 35 targets this season have come in the last three weeks. This is a top-heavy target share where Burden, Wease and Cooper combine for 74%. Tight ends and running backs aren’t involved much in the passing game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Maryland vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -19.5
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: OSU 38 – MD 19
Weather: 53 degrees / 16% rain / 11 mph winds
Maryland:
Top Play(s) –
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