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Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: ND -6
O/U Total: 54
Implied Score: ND 30 – Lou 24
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($8,100) If there is a weakness to this Louisville defense, it would be the front seven defending the run as they’re 72nd in rush D success rate and have allowed four different running backs to hit double-digit fantasy points this season. Overall numbers aren’t bad against the run, allowing just 25 combined fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, but that number is aided from facing two of the worst rushing teams in the ACC already in NC State and Boston College. Estime and this offensive line is a different animal.
Fade – WR Tobias Merriweather ($4,200) I’m heavily invested in Merriweather’s under prop bet at 34.5 receiving yards, so I’m sure he’ll end up having a huge game on Saturday. The sophomore receiver does get a lot of cardio in each week, but rarely results in significant production. Team leader in routes run, yet is sixth in receptions and targets, and first in drops. With Notre Dame now healthy again at the wide receiver position, there’s no need to consider Merriweather here.
Bargain Bin – WR Rico Flores Jr. ($3,700) What I’m curious to see on Saturday is if Flores Jr. is relegated to a backup again now that Jayden Thomas ($5,400) is expected to start, or does the talented freshman take Merriweather’s spot in the starting lineup. Flores has a clear connection with Sam Hartman despite limited playing time with 17 of his 23 targets coming in the last three games alone – all of which were competitive matchups.
Pivot Play – TE Mitchell Evans ($5,300) I’ve seen folks jump on Evans’ under receiving prop this week with the return of Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse from injury. Certainly muddies the water with a surplus of Notre Dame pass catchers available, but Evans has been one of the top tight ends in the country the last two weeks with 13 receptions on 14 targets – now leading the team in both categories. No data to support how well Louisville does in facing opposing tight ends, because they haven’t faced a team yet on the schedule that utilizes the position.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($8,900) Adequate Louisville secondary, ranking 33rd in pass D success rate and 61st in Pro Football Focus coverage grades. Which group shows up on Saturday? The one that forced NC State to make a QB change? Or the one that allowed a combined 60 fantasy points to Thomas Castellanos and Haynes King? 20-point projection at $8.9k is probably closer to a fade than play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,000) Not a must-have in your lineup considering the opponent, but Thrash is the best player on a Louisville offense that will likely be playing from behind if the Vegas odds are correct (and they’ve been spot-on with the Irish this season). Thrash doesn’t have the high target share we’re used to seeing from a Jeff Brohm WR1 (23%) but has five of the team’s 12 receiving touchdowns and ranks inside the top 25 nationally among wideouts with a 20.2 YPC average. The concern is that this Irish defense is allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($7,800) Plummer ranks 7th for me of available QBs on this slate, playing an aggressive Irish defense that is 12th in pass D success rate and allows just 13.4 FPPG to opposing QB1s. We saw last week how Plummer performed when NC State ratcheted up the pressure. Expect the Irish to employ a similar strategy. This is a major step up in competition for Plummer as the combined record of Louisville’s first five opponents is just 11-13.
Bargain Bin – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,000) Second on the team in targets (16), and has proven capable already of having big-play potential with 110 yards and two touchdowns on just three targets in Week 4 vs. Boston College. Notre Dame’s best cornerback, Benjamin Morrison, will likely cover Thrash outside, so could be opportunities in the middle of the field to exploit as we saw a few weeks ago with Ohio State’s Emeka Egubka. The biggest issue is that Huggins-Bruce shares slot reps with FCS transfer WR Kevin Coleman ($3,700).
Pivot Play – RB Jawhar Jordan ($6,900) Still have a decent 16.2-point projection for Jordan this week, though touch sledding inside against a Notre Dame defense that is 35th in rush D success rate, allowing just 10.8 FPPG. The big-play potential of Jordan keeps him in play regardless of opponent, averaging 102 rushing yards per game and 40% of the team’s total rushing share. Three running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Irish in 2023.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Not considering anyone beyond the players highlighted above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
Point-Spread: Miss -11.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Miss 37 – Ark 25.5
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($5,800) The former Division III transfer has asserted himself as the clear WR1 for the Hogs, now with 29% of the team’s target share with 351 receiving yards and four touchdowns. His targets could increase now that prized freshman tight end Luke Hasz was lost for the year due to injury. Ole Miss is allowing 47.7 FPPG to opposing WR groups this season and over 21 fantasy points to WR1s. Should be a big game incoming for Armstrong if this Arkansas offense doesn’t get in its own way.
Fade – RB Rashod Dubinion ($5,000) The return of Rocket eliminates any backups from DFS contention. And would imagine that the reps for Sanders increase with each week since returning from injury.
Bargain Bin – TE Var’Keyes Gumms ($3,400) The former North Texas transfer saw his most extended action of the season last week, targeted just once against A&M. He’ll be thrust into a bigger role now with Hasz out with injury. This is a major risk in considering Gumms, but he was a Conference USA freshman first-teamer last year with North Texas, catching 34 passes with five touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WR Isaac TeSlaa ($4,400) The production hasn’t been there for TeSlaa with fewer than 35 receiving yards in each of the last three games. But his playing time has not diminished and there is an established top two in the pecking order with TeSlaa/Armstrong combining for 49% of the team’s target share. Must imagine everyone’s targets get a slight bump now too with Hasz out of the lineup.
Best of the Rest – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,300) Worst performance of the season last week, albeit against a very good A&M secondary, completing just nine passes for 132 yards with a pick-six. Thankfully for Jefferson, the Ole Miss secondary is not in the same vicinity as A&M, ranking 116th in pass D success rate and allowing over 26 FPPG to opposing QB1s. The 19-point projection we have for Jefferson feels low considering the opponent. RB Rocket Sanders ($5,500) had just 70 total yards of offense last week on 11 rushing attempts but was inches away from breaking multiple big runs against the Aggies. Arkansas is reportedly making wholesale changes again this week along the offensive line in hopes of improving the rushing woes. RB1s are averaging 19 FPPG against the Rebels.
Injury Notes – TE Luke Hasz ($5,000) Done for the year with a broken collarbone.
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) –
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