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Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State
Point-Spread: App St -6
O/U Total: 61
Implied Score: App St 33.5 – CC 27.5
Weather: 53 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Sam Pinckney ($5,500) and/or Jared Brown ($5,700) Will never understand the DK algorithm and how it decides that the two Coastal receivers should be cheaper than Quinton Lane. Regardless, you need to have at least one, if not both in your lineup today with the top-heavy target share as the duo accounts for over 50% and four of the team’s seven receiving TDs.
Fade – WR Jameson Tucker ($4,600) Full disclosure, haven’t watched much at all of Coastal this season outside of the opener against UCLA, so I don’t know much about Jameson Tucker aside from that he caught a touchdown against Georgia State in Week 4, before running just six routes last time out against Georgia Southern. Tyson Mobley ($4,100) is the starter over Tucker when healthy.
Bargain Bin – See above on Mobley. Serviceable WR3 that caught 40 passes on 55 targets for five touchdowns a year ago.
Pivot Play – RB Braydon Bennett ($5,500) We mentioned above there is a solidified top three options at RB for the slate. If you swap out Jackson (or any of them for that matter), Bennett is next man up after rushing for 114 yards on 15 attempts in the loss to Georgia Southern. Matchup is favorable against an Appalachian State defense that is surprisingly atrocious against the run, allowing 24 FPPG and ranks 130th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – QB Grayson McCall ($6,000) Season has transpired about the way I expected at least with the uninspiring hire of former NC State OC Tim Beck who was on the verge of getting fired with the Wolfpack. That rant aside, McCall is still an option at this pricing as he’s a dual-threat option with two top-tier G5 receivers to throw to. Numbers are undoubtedly down, though, ranking 76th in pass play success rate and having surpassed 20 fantasy points just once in five games. App State ranks far better defending the pass – allowing 17.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 14th in EPA/ per pass play defensively.
Injury Notes – RB Reese White ($5,100) and CJ Beasley ($4,200) Both are questionable for Tuesday with head coach Tim Beck deeming Beasley a true game-time decision. Last week’s performance should have solidified Bennett’s spot atop the depth chart in my eyes, but we’ve seen this be a 3-way split under the previous regime and with the new staff with Beck. Bennett’s value obviously skyrockets if neither player is available.
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nate Noel ($6,500) Will be the highest owned player on the slate, and should have the highest salary on DK. Coastal is allowing 18.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and rank in the bottom third nationally in all rush defense advanced metrics. We questioned in the offseason whether Nate Noel could handle 20 carries a game in 2023 at his 190-pound stature and he’s telling all the doubters to keep their mouths shut after his performances in the first five games. Noel now leads the country (!!!) at 24.6 rush attempts per game.
Fade – Backup RBs. See underlined portion above.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Stroman ($3,500) I still stand by my stance that Stroman is the most physically gifted WR on Appalachian State, even if the numbers don’t really prove that. Just fourth on the team in targets but averages 17.2 YPC and a 21-yard aDOT. Big-play ability.
Pivot Play – WR Christan Horn ($5,900) DFS players will likely look to save costs if rostering an App State receiver, looking specifically at WR Kaeden Robinson ($4,700) who converted on all 10 of his targets last week for 112 yards and a touchdown. Horn had an exceptional game in his own right, hitting 124 yards with two scores in the win over ULM. Horn is just third on the team in targets (23) but is second in routes run and tied for the team lead in touchdowns. App State’s defense is that bad this season to where you could roster multiple Mountaineer receivers.
Best of the Rest – QB Joey Aguilar ($7,500) We’ll just have to do our double checks in pregame to assure that Aguilar is the starter with Ryan Burger back at practice. At least two passing touchdowns in all but one game this season for Aguilar, facing a Coastal secondary that allows 18.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. I think he’ll see low ownership among the QB options. WR Dashaun Davis ($5,100) is second on the team in targets (25) but a distant third among receivers in routes run. TE Eli Wilson ($3,200) is tied for second on the team in touchdowns (2) and third in routes run. Just one tight end this season has scored more than four fantasy points against the Chants.
Injury Notes – QB Ryan Burger ($7,600) Burger returned to practice this week but would be a shocker if he got the start on Tuesday. Burger was the favorite coming out of fall camp until the injuries set in. I think in a week when Appalachian State plays next we’ll have more questions as to who will be under center. Not today.
Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee
Point-Spread: MTSU -3
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: MTSU 33 – LT 27.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) –
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