To view Week 7 Player Projections, click here.
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.
Syracuse vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -18.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: FSU 37 – Syr 18.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($6,100) This is a below average ACC run defense for the Seminoles that ranks 100th in EPA per rush play and allows the 33rd most fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs. We saw what Will Shipley was able to do against this FSU defense in the passing game with four receptions for 38 yards and a score. Allen offers a similar floor because of his usage in the passing game, with at least three receptions in each of the last four games.
Fade – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,600) This offense is trending in the wrong direction, coming to a halt against UNC last week, managing just seven points against a bad defense. One of the lowest implied team totals on the slate on the road against the Florida State pass rush does not give off good vibes for Shrader and this offense this week. Maybe a bounce back after last week’s low point of the season? FWIW, dual-threat quarterbacks have given FSU some trouble this season – Thomas Castellanos scored 30+ fantasy points in his matchup, while ran for 80 yards on 14 carries last week.
Bargain Bin – TE Dan Villari ($3,600) Last week was a pass-heavy game script for Syracuse, down by multiple touchdowns most of the day, but for the second straight game we did see heavy involvement (for his standards) from Villari in the passing game. Minimal yardage but converted on all four of his targets. Extreme long shot play as Florida State has not allowed a tight end to score more than eight fantasy points against them.
Pivot Play – WR Damien Alford ($5,300) Worst performance of the season for Alford who saw his snaps cut in half after a bad drop against UNC. Interview with the media made it seem like Alford is ready to atone for the mistake this week and the 6-foot-6 receiver has big-play potential with a 15.7 YPC average and 14.3 aDOT. The top three Syracuse receivers of Alford, Umari Hatcher and Donovan Brown are separated by just five targets so there is really no priority of which to roster between amongst the trio.
Best of the Rest – n/a. Nobody outside of those mentioned above.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($6,900) Assuming what I believe to be true, Johnny Wilson doesn’t play this week, meaning Coleman will be the solidified WR1 on Saturday. Jordan Travis is too expensive here for a 23-point projection and I’m not sure Trey Benson can be trusted week-to-week despite his 200-yard outburst. Coleman can’t be trusted either, has he’s now had a pair of weeks this season with 25 receiving yards or less, but should get a bump in value if Wilson sits.
Fade – See injury section below.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,200) Bell was very limited last week against Virginia Tech, having not practiced much over the course of the week and was limited to minimal offensive snaps during the game. One of FSU’s beat writers tweeted this week that Bell made his presence felt in practices with several receptions. Have to figure he’ll be a bigger part of the game plan Saturday if Wilson sits.
Pivot Play – RB Trey Benson ($7,200) Was last week the turning point for Benson? 200 yards and two touchdowns was quite the performance, but how replicable is it given that the yardage came on just 11 rushing attempts. Syracuse is far better at defending the run as well, allowing just 12.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s and 21st in rush D success rate. Benson will be very low owned at his pricing, but game script does work in his favor with FSU being a heavy favorite.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,000) Contemplated putting Travis in the fade portion of the column because of his pricing. A 23-point projection at $9k on this slate doesn’t warrant rostering Travis but can’t outright fade a Heisman contender. The Orange had limited every QB faced to under 20 fantasy points until last week’s disaster, allowing a 40-point performance to Drake Maye. Possibly down one of Travis’ top targets doesn’t help his cause either.
Injury Notes – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,400) We currently have Wilson in the projections, but the 6-foot-6 junior was not really mentioned in any practice reports this week after not playing in the second half vs. Virginia Tech. I’d side with caution here and fade Wilson unless we get a confirmed update of him playing and 100% healthy. Probably don’t need Wilson this week as a near three-touchdown favorite.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati
Point-Spread: Cin -4.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: Cin 23.5 – ISU 19
Weather: 65 degrees / 28% rain / 11 mph winds
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Jaylin Noel ($5,100) Noel is more of a priority, if you want to call him that, on DK versus FD because of the PPR scoring settings. The junior slot receiver has hit double-digit targets in three of the last four games, though his production is limited as Noel averages just 9.2 yards per catch with an aDOT of just 7.3. His pace isn’t “that” far off from Xavier Hutchinson’s a year ago in terms of volume, but everything is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage which caps his upside.
Fade – RB Cartevious Norton ($4,500) We have Norton projected as the third-highest Iowa State running back for Saturday. I think he might be RB2 still, but this is now a rotation that includes at least three running backs getting touches. While the Cyclones have rushed for at least 150 yards as a team in each of the last two games, they’re facing a strong Cincinnati run defense that is allowing just 14.8 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayden Higgins ($4,300) There is no Sauce Gardner in this Cincinnati secondary anymore that is susceptible to giving up chunk plays in the passing game. The Bearcats are allowing the 24th most fantasy points in the country to opposing receivers with four different wideouts scoring 18 or more fantasy points against them. Three of those WRs come from Miami (Ohio), BYU and Pittsburgh. Not exactly teams that air it out each week. Higgins is second on the team in targets (32) and receptions (17), with a team-high three touchdowns.
Pivot Play – QB Rocco Becht ($5,300) I can’t in good conscience advise playing Rocco Becht, but this Cincy secondary is average at best, allowing 22.2 FPPG to opposing QB1s in 2023. Becht has now thrown a touchdown pass in each of his first six starts to his career, and the offensive line is giving him time to throw, having allowed just three sacks this season. You’ll need a cheap option to pair with either Michael Penix or Bo Nix.
Best of the Rest – RB Eli Sanders ($4,400) Not the matchup to play an Iowa State running back against a rush defense that is allowing just 8.3 FPPG to RB1s and 17th in rush D success rate. Sanders has assumed the RB1 job, though, for the Cyclones, and has played reasonably well by averaging nearly 5.0 YPC this season. He’s a starter and he’s cheap.
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here.