To view Week 7 Player Projections, click here.
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT -1.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: TT 28.5 – K-St 27
Weather: Dome
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,700) Looking for a bounce back performance from Will Howard this week after he played his worst game of the season against Oklahoma State, tossing three interceptions in the loss. Really strong 27-point projection for this pricing, facing a below average Texas Tech secondary that allows the 27th most fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks. Howard also has a rushing touchdown in all but one game this season.
Fade – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,000) The former Iowa transfer has seen an uptick in playing time the last two weeks since coming back from injury, but still appears to be the 4th or 5th option in the Kansas State passing game. Played less than 50% of snaps against Oklahoma State last week, splitting time with WR RJ Garcia ($5,000) If that split continues, both essentially are nullified from the conversation.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Jackson ($4,600) Jackson took advantage while both RJ Garcia and Keagan Johnson missed time due to injury, and has seemingly secured a starting job, playing 84% of the offensive snaps last week vs. Oklahoma State.
Pivot Play – TE Ben Sinnott $5,400) Second on the team in targets (35) and routes run this season, facing a Texas Tech defense that is allowing the 18th most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends. And that was against Wyoming, West Virginia, and Houston – teams that don’t frequently target the tight end position in the passing game. Sinnott will be the best tight end Tech has faced all season.
Best of the Rest – I watched that entire game last week against Oklahoma State and my biggest takeaway was that there is no longer a competition for who is the RB1 for the Wildcats – this is DJ Giddens’ ($6,500) job moving forward. 59-16 advantage in offensive snaps played in favor of Giddens, though Ward did look like his explosive self when he did touch the football with 59 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts. WR Phillip Brooks ($6,900) should see low ownership at his pricing and like him as a GPP play as the team leader in targets (38) and receptions (27). Tech has allowed four receivers to score 19 fantasy points or more against them this season, three of which have come in B12 play.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($6,300) We’ll stick with Brooks here as the top play, but we still believe there is going to come a time when Tech will revert back to their Air Raid tendencies under OC Zach Kittley. If there was a time that would occur, Saturday night might be it as Kansas State has been very strong defending the run, ranking 4th in rush D success rate and allowing just 15 FPPG to RB1s. Brooks might’ve actually been a fade too had it not been for us watching Ollie Gordon rush for 136 yards against this same defense. If Gordon can do that, Brooks and this Tech ground game is fully capable.
Fade – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,900) Our projected WR1 for Tech coming into the year has been a complete non-factor since the Tahj Brooks takeover. Specifically, the last two weeks with just 11 receiving yards on a combined five targets. I would say that it’s solely attributed to Tech running the football effectively, but the number of snaps and routes run for Bradley have also declined over that two-game span. This seems like a product of whom Behren Morton is most comfortable throwing to.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($3,700) Not sure if this will be a permanent thing, but Eakin has seen a meteoric rise in playing time over the last three weeks and caught a TD pass against Baylor last Saturday. The 6-foot-2 redshirt freshman played 77% of the offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($6,300) At some point, B12 defenses are going to smarten up and load the box to stop Tahj Brooks and this running game. The good news for Tech is they have a legitimate quarterback to defeat defenses that employ such a strategy. Morton was outstanding last week against Baylor, completing 73% of his passes with four combined touchdowns in the win. I’d go as far as saying that Morton is so cheap here that you can stack both he and Brooks together in a lineup as well. K-State is only allowing 18.3 FPPG to QB1s this season, but don’t grade out well against the pass, ranking 66th in success rate and 93rd in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Myles Price ($4,900) The Price has been Right the last two weeks with the senior slot receiver catching a combined 15 passes on 18 targets in Big 12 play. Price’s connection with Morton is evident, and we’ve harped on the role the slot receiver plays in the Air Raid offense under Kittley (Malachi Corley, Jerreth Sterns).
Injury Notes – n/a
Arizona vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Wazzu -7.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Wazzu 32.5 – AZ 25
Weather: 66 degrees / 2% rain / 8 mph winds
Arizona:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacob Cowing ($7,000) I remember in the preseason, and I was guilty of this too, but everyone was jumping on sophomore Tet McMillan in CFF drafts because of the immense upside. Well, the senior receiver Jacob Cowing continues to pace the Arizona receivers, leading the team in nearly every receiving category after hauling in three touchdown last Saturday against USC. Washington State is allowing the 31st most fantasy points in the country to opposing WR groups.
Fade –
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.