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Florida State vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: FSU -20.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: FSU 35.5 – WF 15.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Keon Coleman ($7,000) See injury portion below as to why Coleman is our top play for the Seminoles this weekend. There will be even more emphasis on getting Coleman the football should Johnny Wilson sit on Saturday, which does sound more precautionary than anything with FSU being a heavy favorite. WR1s are averaging 21.6 FPPG against WF this season.
Fade – RB Trey Benson ($6,800) As a member of the Trey Benson fan club, this is difficult to do so pray for me in these trying times. There’s a surplus of good RB options on the slate, and Benson simply hasn’t lived up to the hype outside of his 200-yard performance against Virginia Tech. I still maintain that for FSU to potentially win the title this season, they MUST get Benson and this running game on track. Not a full fade here but lower your exposure. Too many mouths to feed right now with Lawrance Toafili getting consistent work, and both Jordan Travis and Jaheim Bell getting touches around the goal-line.
Bargain Bin – TE Jaheim Bell ($4,200) If Wilson sits, Bell is the de facto WR2 as the team’s second pass-catching option behind Coleman. Heavy usage since coming back from injury with 12 receptions on 15 targets in the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Kentron Poitier ($3,200) Poitier ran the fifth most routes among FSU players in the win over Duke last week and was second to Coleman among Seminole receivers. He would start in place of Johnny Wilson should he sit.
Best of the Rest – QB Jordan Travis ($9,200) Debating as to which quarterback I prefer between Travis and/or Dillon Gabriel as my top spend-up option. Travis makes the most sense given the higher projection at lower cost, but potentially without one of his top options at receiver too. Wake Forest should really pose no challenge defensively as they’re a middle of the road pass defense, allowing 20 FPPG to opposing QBs and 60th in EPA per pass play.
Injury Notes – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,200) Have not found the exact quote from coaches or beat writers, but the indications I’ve seen are that Wilson is one of three Florida State receivers that could be out on Saturday, along with Destyn Hill ($3,800) and Hykeem Williams ($3,700). Wilson obviously being the most important of the group as the second-leading receiver.
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – RB Justice Ellison ($4,800) Expect Wake Forest to lean into the run game with their talented duo of Ellison and RB Demond Claiborne ($4,800) with the passing game in a state of flux. For as good a team as Florida State has been this season, the run defense is the concern on that side of the ball, ranked 89th in EPA per play and allowing 17 FPPG to RB1s. Ellison had a monster performance last year against the Seminoles with 114 yards and a TD.
Fade – QB Santino Marucci ($5,500) We gave HC Dave Clawson so much praise this offseason, believing that his system was plug and play, and that whoever would replace Sam Hartman at QB would keep the train moving. Wrong. We’re out on the entire Wake Forest passing game at this point.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Likely a full-team fade.
Pivot Play – WR Jahmal Banks ($6,300) Downgrades for all WF receivers if Marucci starts on Saturday, which looks to be the case. Banks has at least 50 yards receiving in all but two games this season, leading the team with 56 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR KeShawn Williams ($4,400) If selecting a Wake Forest receiver out of desperation, we’re going cheap with Williams who was the lone wideout to have a good connection with Marucci last week, converting on all six of his targets. His aDOTs have drop significantly over the last month, though, averaging under 5 yards per target.
Injury Notes – QB Mitch Griffis ($6,100) Griffis did return to practice this week, but one of the moderators at the Wake Forest 247Sports site maintained the opinion that Griffis would not play this week. Probably best not to diminish his confidence even further going against this vaunted Florida State pass rush.
Houston vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: K-St -17.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: K-St 38.5 – UH 21
Weather: 38 degrees / 38% rain / 10 mph winds
Houston:
Top Play(s) – QB Donovan Smith ($7,900) It’s not always pretty, but Smith continues to rack up the fantasy points, scoring 27 or more in each of the last three games. And last week was a similar scenario as a two-touchdown underdog facing a better defense in Texas. 40 or more passing attempts in three of the last four games as Houston is really struggling to run the football with any consistency.
Fade – RB Parker Jenkins ($5,000) Jenkins remains the team’s leading rusher but might’ve hit the freshman wall, now with fewer than 30 rushing yards in each of the last two games. To be fair to Jenkins, he’s only received 15 attempts in that span, but this isn’t the matchup to try and push through that wall. Kansas State ranks 16th in rush D success rate and 14th in EPA per rush play defensively. They’ve allowed 20 or more fantasy points to three Big 12 running backs so far, so they’re not a dominant front, but can’t trust Jenkins’ usage right now, particularly as a double-digit underdog.
Bargain Bin – WR Dalton Carnes ($3,500) We’ve seen an uptick in usage from the sophomore slot receiver over the last few weeks, nabbing a season-high 5-68-0 on six targets against Texas. Again, passing volume is resulting for more fantasy success from all of the passing game components.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,700) Matthew Golden and Sam Brown get the headlines, but Manjack is the most trustworthy receiver on the Houston roster, and he’s displayed that with a 73% catch rate and 50 or more receiving yards in all but one game this season. WR groups average around 43 fantasy points when facing the Wildcats’ secondary, 26th most among teams playing this weekend.
Best of the Rest – WR Matthew Golden ($6,500) or Sam Brown ($6,300) Would probably limit your lineups to just one Houston receiver as the targets are spread fairly evenly between Golden, Brown and Manjack. Brown leads the team in targets (59) and routes run, while Golden has a team-high six touchdowns. Tough to distinguish between the three who the best option is as their usage rates are identical, and Kansas State has allowed big fantasy performances to all shapes and sizes of receivers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,800) Very slight edge to Ward here was K-State’s top RB option as he’s garnered more carries and been on the field more in each of the last two games. When healthy, Ward has been as dynamic as anticipated, averaging over five yards a carry in all but one game this season. And might’ve remained the starter throughout the season had injuries not popped up. Kansas State, on paper, should have no problem running the football on Saturday facing a Houston defense that is allowing the 13th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
Fade – QBs. Unfortunately, this situation is unplayable at this point with both Will Howard and Avery Johnson getting extended playing time, likely for the foreseeable future. Potential wet conditions for Saturday give the Kansas State beat writer the impression that it will be majority Howard, but this could easily be a series-by-series situation. If Howard struggles, clearly Kansas State won’t be hesitant to pull the trigger.
Bargain Bin – n/a.
Pivot Play – RB DJ Giddens ($6,500) While Ward is preferred for salary costs, this remains a 55-45 split backfield with Giddens seeing double-digit touches every week. His usage in the passing game is particularly intriguing with a pair of games in mid-October with eight targets in each. Also had 75 receiving yards and a score against TCU last weekend. Will have far less ownership than Ward on Saturday and doesn’t have the injury concerns.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($6,000) Just two Kansas State players were targeted more than twice last week, one of which being Brooks who leads the team in every receiving category but touchdowns (Sinnott). Six receivers this season have scored 15 or more fantasy points in their matchup with Houston.
Injury Notes – TE Ben Sinnott ($5,200) OC Collin Klien says he expects Sinnott to play on Saturday after being banged up in the TCU matchup. Just one tight end has scored more than 7 fantasy points against Houston this season, and I’ll normally just fade any tight ends on the Main Slate above $5k that aren’t named Brock Bowers.
Oklahoma vs. Kansas
Point-Spread: OU -9.5
O/U Total: 65.5
Implied Score: OU 37.5 – KU 28
Weather: 40 degrees / 32% rain / 10 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) –
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