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Washington vs. Stanford
Point-Spread: UW -26.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UW 43.5 – Stan 17
Weather: 68 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Rome Odunze ($8,700) and / or Ja’Lynn Polk ($6,800) No surprise that this duo has dominated the target share in the games which Jalen McMillan has missed. 43 combined targets the last two weeks. We need to have one in our lineups is my opinion, and no qualms about which one you choose. Stacking would be an option if we knew McMillan was out or less than 100% – none of which we know for sure. We want Washington exposure for obvious reasons with an implied total of six touchdowns.
Fade – Backup RBs. Since Week 5, backup Washington running backs have combined for seven rushing attempts. Dillon Johnson has 44 in that same span. We’re not seeing the same split we had a year ago with Cameron Davis and Wayne Taulapapa. This is Johnson’s backfield.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($4,000) Shocker – Stanford can’t defend opposing tight ends either. 9.1 FPPG allowed with three different Pac-12 tight ends already having scored more than 10 fantasy points against the Cardinal this season.
Pivot Play – RB Dillon Johnson ($6,800) There isn’t a facet of the Stanford defense that is good at anything. Atrocious against the pass, and almost as bad defending the run, ranking 126th in rush D success rate. Interesting then that the Cardinal are only allowing 14.6 FPPG to RB1s this season and holding a few running backs to under their seasonal averages. Probably because teams are having an aerial assault on this secondary and not even bothering with the run. Just six yards on eight carries against Arizona State for Johnson last week – obviously bad – but still garnering over 50% of the rush volume share. No other Washington RB is challenging Johnson for carries.
Best of the Rest – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($10,700) This is very similar to the main slate and Caleb Williams. Penix is our second highest projected quarterback of the entire weekend in college fantasy, facing a Stanford defense that is allowing the most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks. But there is a 1.5-point difference between Penix Jr. and Drake Maye yet are worlds apart with their salaries. Fiscally, probably doesn’t make a ton of sense to have Penix Jr. unless you’re stacking the Washington passing offense. WR Giles Jackson ($5,300) is probably too expensive for a fourth string WR, though if we catch wind that McMillan is out, Jackson could be a late pivot. 11 targets in the last two games.
Injury Notes – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,900) McMillan will suit up and play on Saturday night after missing the last three games. How much is anyone’s guess. Would imagine he’ll have lower ownership because most have the same hesitation that I have about the unknown. General rule for me is always wait a game to start a player coming back from injury, but that strategy doesn’t always apply to DFS, looking to gain an edge.
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Eli Ayomanor ($5,900) I thought Ayomanor’s performance against Colorado would be a one-off and that his numbers would taper off vs. a more formidable defense in UCLA. That was only partially correct. Ayomanor didn’t find the end-zone, but posted 8-86-0 on 12 targets, giving him 30 over the last two games. Talented player from what I’ve watched and seems the move back to Ashton Daniels at QB has really boosted his productivity. Very much in play this week as a run-back option with Washington in a game stack or solo with a 17-point projection at just $5.9k.
Fade – RBs. Stanford’s running game is nonexistent. RB E.J. Smith ($4,300) has been one of the biggest busts in college fantasy football this season. Not that we thought he’d be a 1,000-yard running back, but this is a system previously at Sacramento State that threw the ball 76 times in a season to its RB1. We know Smith is an adept pass-catcher out of the backfield, but just 11 targets in seven games played. Avoid.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,900) Roush, a talented 6-foot-5 sophomore, played all 68 offensive snaps last week in the absence of Ben Yurosek, catching four passes on five targets. Like we mentioned above with E.J. Smith, this is an offensive system under HC Troy Taylor that utilized the tight end position heavily at Sacramento State the last three seasons.
Pivot Play – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($4,200) All of a sudden the Stanford passing game has come alive in the last two games under Ashton Daniels. Not sure where the light switch came on, but the receiver production has been a pleasant surprise. Namely Ayomanor, but the 4-star freshman got into the action last week with 8-75-1 on 11 targets. Game script will be the same again this week as double-digit underdogs, it’s a matter of how much success Daniels has throwing the football. On that note…
Best of the Rest – QB Ashton Daniels ($6,800) We’re not starting Daniels, but can he play well enough to support the talented collection of Stanford pass-catchers. 60% completion rate for Daniels the last two weeks, and you have to love the passing volume with 45 attempts in each game. Just two quarterbacks have scored over 15 fantasy points against the Huskies this season, so this is a good pass defense, but Washington is also 74th in pass D success rate. Not a dominant group.
Injury Notes – TE Ben Yurosek ($4,500) Only update I’ve seen via Twitter from October 17th is that this will be a week-to-week situation with Yurosek who did not play a single snap against UCLA last week. Easy fade as Yurosek is in the E.J. Smith category of CFF Busts in 2023.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Point-Spread: Tenn -3.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: Tenn 27.5 – UK 24
Weather: 67 degrees / 28% rain / 5 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Squirrel White ($5,800) The White – Joe Milton connection we saw in the bowl game last season against Clemson is finally taking shape. Two 100-yard performances in the last three games for White, with last week being a definite hit on our part noting that slot receivers (particularly from Tennessee) have fared well against Alabama nickel backs. The four highest scoring wideouts vs. Kentucky this season have actually all been outside receivers, but White has been far and away the most consistent of the Vols’ options in 2023.
Fade – RB Dylan Sampson ($5,200) We keep picking on Sampson in these writeups, but he’s simply priced too highly for a RB3. Last two games in competitive matchups he’s combined to score just 10 fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – WR Chas Nimrod ($3,200) Honestly, I hate these types of plays that potentially show up in optimal lineups, yet rarely produce. Nimrod is only being listed here because he’s on the field a lot. That’s it. 49 of 81 snaps played last week against Alabama but failed to receive a single target. I’d probably lean slightly towards WR Kaleb Webb ($3,300) who played 17 fewer offensive snaps than Nimrod but was targeted four times against the Tide. Or better yet, roster neither player.
Pivot Play – QB Joe Milton ($7,500) That first half against Alabama was as good as we’ve seen Milton look since that bowl game last year. Confident and accurate, while taking it to the Tide defense with his legs as well, running over defenders. The Vols will need that version of Milton again vs. this Kentucky defense which has excelled defending the run. Against the pass, not so much, ranking 80th in EPA per pass play and 125th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,400) I don’t mind mixing Wright in because of his sheer talent, but this isn’t a great matchup. Three-way backfield for Tennessee facing the 23rd ranked run defense in the country that allows just 12.4 FPPG to RB1s this season. Wright has found the end-zone just once in seven games. WR Ramel Keyton ($4,900) might be one of the more infuriating players in college football as he works himself open several times during games with his infinite number of offensive snaps, but continually has stone hands, dropping passes left and right. Low-owned option that will play 90% of the game. Same goes for WR Dont’e Thornton ($3,900) who might be one of the most physically gifted receivers in the country, yet just ran five routes against the Tide and was essentially benched for dropping a pass in the red-zone. One of the Tennessee beat writers predicted that TE McCallan Castles ($3,200) would find the end-zone for the second straight week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($6,600) Silly me going to the primary Kentucky sports website looking for football news when it is late October and exhibition games are happening in college basketball. We know Davis is Kentucky’s top fantasy option but how is the matchup? The Vols are only allowing 14.9 FPPG to running backs this season and are 13th in rush D success rate. Not great, but what else is Kentucky going to do offensively, throw the football? 15 or more carries in every SEC game this season for Davis so we know the volume will be there.
Fade – QB Devin Leary ($6,200) About as easy as it gets from choosing a fade option. Leary hasn’t cleared 128 passing yards in each of the last three games with his one lone performance over 200 yards against SEC competition coming against one of the worst secondaries in the conference in Vanderbilt. Tennessee is MUCH better than Vanderbilt, ranking 36th in pass D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Dane Key ($4,800) Lowest will go on a Kentucky player is Key at $4.8k as he’s first on the team in routes run, second in targets (35) and third in receptions (17). Those that have read these DFS articles this season know the drill by now with Kentucky receivers – unpredictable and rarely hit value.
Pivot Play – WR Barion Brown ($5,200) Team leader in targets (47) and receptions (23), with also the highest aDOT at 16.5. All good until you look at drops and the sophomore leads the team with five and a 48.9% catch rate. I don’t mind mixing in a Kentucky receiver here as the player prop lines have not moved as dramatically as one would think given the recent production from the Kentucky passing game. Obviously, do not stack Wildcats’ receivers together in a lineup. Perhaps the bye week helped cure some of the Kentucky passing game woes.
Best of the Rest – WR Tayvion Robinson ($5,000) Kentucky’s starting slot receiver has gone under 25 receiving yards in each of the last four games and ran a season-low 15 routes against Missouri last week. Seems like he might’ve been in the doghouse after dropping two passes the week prior against Georgia. Kentucky’s opponent this week, Tennessee, is fifth nationally in pass D success rate and seventh overall in yards allowed through the air.
Injury Notes – n/a
Air Force vs. Colorado State
Point-Spread: AF -13.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: AF 30 – CSU 16.5
Weather: 25 degrees / 90% rain / 9 mph winds
Air Force:
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