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Kansas State vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -4.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Tex 27 – K-St 22.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 2% rain / 6 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($6,300) Struggled with this one in coming up with a top play for Kansas State as their strengths on offense are Texas’ strengths on the defensive side. Giddens gets the slight nod for me here as he’s been sensational the last two weeks with 56 fantasy points scored against TCU and Houston. Tough matchup against the No. 1 ranked run defense in the B12, but Giddens’ versatility keeps him in play. Third on the team in targets and receptions. Texas is allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs, so if you want to fade the K-State backfield entirely, I don’t have an issue with that either.
Fade – QBs. I thought that maybe we’d only see Will Howard this week after Avery Johnson had a costly fumble against Houston last week. But the Kansas State preview for this game mentions that Kansas State will look to feature both quarterbacks again. I can’t rationally start a quarterback in Howard that we know will be off the field for a series or three.
Bargain Bin – WR Jayce Brown ($3,900) My apologies for not mentioning the true freshman in last week’s writeup as he’s been an integral part of the K-State offense the last two weeks now, playing over 55% of the team’s offensive snaps and targeted nine times. Against Houston last week, the telecast brought up Brown’s names at multiple points as a player that K-State believes will help them down the stretch with the injuries they’ve dealt with at wideout. Three rushing attempts too as Brown was featured on a few end-arounds to utilize his speed.
Pivot Play – TE Ben Sinnott ($4,900) Quiet few weeks for Sinnott who has not been 100% healthy, as evidenced by his two targets in two games. Just one tight end this season has scored more than seven fantasy points against the Longhorns, so there’s really nothing here to suggest starting Sinnott. But this is a massive game with conference title implications and Sinnott is one of the team’s best players. That’s my argument here. The Kansas State beat writer also highlighted Sinnott as a player to watch for Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Phillip Brooks ($4,900) Team leader in every single receiving category, coming off his best performance of the year with 83 yards and a touchdown on five targets. WR1s are averaging 15.3 FPPG against the Longhorns this season and are 9th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($7,800) Is there any doubt that Texas will lean on its best player Saturday? Just a matter of how effective Brooks will be against a good Kansas State defense that is 18th in rush D success rate and giving up just 14.2 FPPG to RB1s. That said, the Wildcats have allowed over four yards per carry in each of the last five games so not impenetrable. Like what we stated with Giddens above, Brooks’ usage in the passing game of late is intriguing with 17 of his 22 receptions coming in the last three weeks.
Fade – QB Maalik Murphy ($6,300) Not impressed last week with Murphy who had multiple turnovers against BYU, and now faces a Kansas State defense that has been swarming opponents of late. 33rd in pass D success rate, allowing just 13.7 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. Are we absolutely certain that we won’t see Arch Manning on Saturday?
Bargain Bin – TE Gunnar Helm ($4,100) This play is in conjunction with the Injury Notes below. Look at the last time Ja’Tavion Sanders was limited in a game. Helm had a season’s best 4-67-1 on four targets. The pricing is unfortunate here because his season-long production dictates that Helm should be $3.1k and not $4.1k.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Whittington ($4,900) In the same vein as Helm above, Whittington took a lot of Ja’Tavion Sanders’ route concepts against Oklahoma in that matchup where he was limited and resulted in season highs with 10 receptions on 10 targets.
Best of the Rest – WRs Xavier Worthy ($6,700) and Adonai Mitchell ($6,400) If Quinn Ewers was playing, we’d have more interest. The duo was targeted 15 times with two receiving touchdowns in a blowout situation, so that bodes well for potential success in a more competitive matchup. Two receivers have also scored 30 fantasy points against the Wildcats this season. Worthy was targeted 11 times against BYU, but three drops ruined his stat-line.
Injury Notes – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,700) According to the Texas beat writer, Sanders re-aggravated his ankle injury in practice and is questionable for Saturday. Last time his ankle was injured was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry where Sanders caught just one pass on two targets and was mostly used as a decoy.
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Miss -3
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Miss 28 – A&M 25
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Ainias Smith ($5,100) This might be a lower-scoring affair with two good defenses so there isn’t much need to have exposure to this game, let alone game stack it. But there are pieces to pick and choose from, namely Smith who is just too cheap here given what he’s done the last month and a half. 70 or more receiving yards in five of the last six games.
Fade – WR Noah Thomas ($4,600) Thomas still isn’t fully recovered from the injury he suffered back in Week 2 against Miami, though he did play 44 of 72 snaps last time out against South Carolina. Thomas’ effectiveness simply hasn’t been the same since earlier in the season with just 87 receiving yards in the last five games, making him too much of a risk against a tough Ole Miss secondary.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any A&M players under $5k unless we get surprising injury news, which is not expected.
Pivot Play – WR Evan Stewart ($6,100) Seemed as though Stewart might challenge for WR1 in all of college fantasy after two weeks with 100 yards receiving in each of the first two games. Then injury set in. Stewart’s playing time hasn’t wavered, but his production has, with less than 60 yards receiving in each of the last five games. Was Week 9 a potential sign of a breakthrough? 11 targets against South Carolina.
Best of the Rest – QB Max Johnson ($6,000) Cheap enough to consider I suppose, but I’m just not a Max Johnson fan at all. The big issue here is Johnson’s offensive line that has not performed up to expectations as the Texas A&M QB has been pressured on nearly half of his throws since taking over as the starter. Ole Miss is second in sacks in the SEC. Doesn’t bode well for Johnson in an SEC road environment.
Injury Notes – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,100) Folks were MAD with Le’Veon Moss being held out against South Carolina due to a hamstring issue. Sounds as though the sophomore running back is good to go for Saturday, though. As for the matchup, SEC running backs have had success against Ole Miss with Jase McClellan, Logan Diggs and most recently Jarquez Hunter all scoring 19 fantasy points or more. Hamstring flare ups occur, though, and A&M could mix in both Amari Daniels and Reuben Owens who showed well last week.
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinshon Judkins ($6,900) Not the greatest of matchups for Judkins this week, but the pricing makes him a reasonable option. The Aggies are allowing just 9.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s and rank No. 2 in the country in rush D success rate. Judkins’ workload has ramped up here in the last month, averaging over 20 totes a game and has surpassed the century mark in three of the last four weeks.
Fade – WR Jordan Watkins ($5,500) The senior slot receiver played 84% of snaps last week against Vanderbilt, but his effectiveness the last two games simply has not been the same as Watkins has a broken hand and been playing with a cast. Fun story came out this week about Watkins being forced by Lane Kiffin to catch passes in the hotel lobby to prove he was still able to play with the cast.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($3,800) Cheapest realistic option on the Ole Miss side, but we’ve touted the former Memphis transfer in the last two weeks and hasn’t done much of anything. Just one tight end has scored double-digit fantasy points against the Aggies this season. Prieskorn is playing over 80% of the offensive snaps during games but has just four targets in the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Tre Harris ($6,200) or Dayton Wade ($5,400) Of the 29 pass attempts last week by Ole Miss, 23 went to the trio of Harris, Wade and Watkins. While this has been a sticky Texas A&M secondary, they’ve allowed some big performances to opposing receivers with Jermaine Burton going for nearly 40 fantasy points against them, as well as Miami’s Jacolby George who had 31 fantasy points. Four of the top six highest scoring receivers to face A&M this season have been outside receivers; of which Harris and Wade both are.
Best of the Rest – QB Jaxson Dart ($7,800) 23-point projection at $7.8k keeps Dart in play, but difficult matchup against an A&M defense that is allowing just 12.7 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Just two QBs have scored more than 12 fantasy points against the Aggies.
Injury Notes – WR Zakhari Franklin ($4,800) Franklin does have the injury tag on DK, but those that covered the game last week saw the UTSA transfer in full pads and was warming up yet didn’t play a snap. Hasn’t been effective enough on the field even when healthy to warrant consideration against this secondary.
Arkansas vs. Florida
Point-Spread: UF -3.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: UF 26.5 – Ark 23
Weather: 73 degrees / 3% rain / 13 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) –
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