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Virginia vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -20.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: UL 35.5 – UVA 15
Weather: 58 degrees / 39% rain / 9 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Washington ($7,300) The numbers speak for themselves as Malik Washington has arguably been the single most consistent receiver in all of college fantasy. The former Northwestern transfer trails only FAU’s LaJohntay Wester and LSU’s Malik Nabers for total fantasy points scored by a wideout this season, averaging 24.4 FPPG with 100+ receiving yards in seven of nine games played. Matchup is brutal against Louisville on the road as we’ve seen over the last month and a half, but Washington’s consistency makes him tough to fade.
Fade – QBs. Interesting stat about the Louisville pass defense. On the road, the Cardinals allow 231 passing yards per game and a 134.5 QB rating. At home, those numbers drop significantly to 168.8 passing yards per game and a 99.6 QB rating. Sounds as though UVA will turn the keys back over to Anthony Colandrea after Tony Muskett was knocked out of the game last week and is considered day to day. Bad matchup and we don’t know who the QB will be.
Bargain Bin – WR JR Wilson ($4,300) We’ve hammered home the point about the top-heavy target share for Virginia this season with Washington and WR Malachi Fields ($6,500) at 68%. And while that stat still holds true, we’ve seen a subtle change lately with UVA featuring 11 personnel – one RB, one TE and three WRs. Wilson has been the beneficiary the last two games, particularly last week against Georgia Tech, playing 71 of the 74 offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Kobe Pace ($4,200) Virginia won’t be able to run on Louisville, so Pace won’t offer much as a runner. That said, the former Clemson transfer is third in targets (17), receptions (14) and second in receiving touchdowns (3). A secondary pivot strategy is to stack Malik Washington and Malachi Fields together (without the UVA starting QB) because of the aforementioned target share. There are major uncertainties at the WR position for the other three teams on this slate.
Best of the Rest – RB Perris Jones ($4,900) Another fade spot. UVA uses three of them, neither of which have been very productive running the football. In total, Louisville allows just 19.2 FPPG to opposing backfields. Split that potentially three ways is not a GPP winning option. Similar to the passing numbers, Louisville is better defensively at home, allowing 25 fewer yards per game on the ground vs. on the road. Pace gets some consideration as he’s the better pass-catcher of the two at a cheaper price. Jones has just six targets on the year.
Injury Notes – RB Mike Hollins ($4,000) Hollins is questionable with a neck injury but was listed on the team’s depth chart this week.
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,100) We’ll see what we can uncover headed into Thursday as Jordan is listed as probable with the lingering hamstring issue. Should this game get out of hand, we could see something similar to last week against Virginia Tech as Jordan started but played just 22 of 47 offensive snaps in the victory. Matchup is obviously very strong as UVA is allowing the 10th most fantasy points to running backs in college football and are 125th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,400) Playing time continues to diminish for AHB as the season goes along and was not targeted a single time last week against Virginia Tech. Kevin Coleman and Jadon Thompson both saw playing time in the slot last week, running more routes than Huggins-Bruce.
Bargain Bin – WR Jadon Thompson ($4,200) Thompson gets the starting nod if Jamari Thrash is out. The former Cincinnati transfer led Louisville last week in routes run with 49 yards and a touchdown. Thrash plays and Thompson is removed from our player pool.
Pivot Play – RB Isaac Guerendo ($6,000) Swing and a miss thinking Maurice Turner would be the second man up behind Jordan, as it was the former Wisconsin transfer who wound up rushing for 146 yards and three scores. Multiple avenues you can go with this, and it is tough to know which is best as it stands on Wednesday writing this. Stack Jordan and Guerendo, thinking this plays out like last week. Or if the Vegas line moves in favor of UVA, perhaps just stick with Jordan in thinking he gets a full workload if this game ends up being competitive.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Plummer ($8,800) I bet the under at 220.5 passing yards for Plummer this week, so I’m currently assuming this plays out like the Virginia Tech matchup with the Louisville QB1 threw just 12 passes. UVA allows 21 FPPG this season to opposing quarterbacks and are 62nd in pass D success rate. So, this is a good matchup, just a matter of how much Plummer is needed, and potentially playing without his best playmaker at WR. Not doing a deep dive on snap counts and routes run for the remaining Louisville receivers, but the target share is so dispersed amongst the group outside of Jamari Thrash that I’d look to the more expensive options of WR Chris Bell ($4,900) or WR Kevin Coleman ($4,500) who has taken AHB’s starting spot in the slot. Bell is the most physically gifted WR on the team, not named Jamari Thrash.
Injury Notes – WR Jamari Thrash ($7,200) Thrash is the unlikelier of the two superstars to play on Thursday, dealing with a wrist injury. Did not get a chance to watch the game, but don’t believe Thrash was even suited up for the contest with Virginia Tech, as I saw him an a pregame video helping his fellow receivers in warmup drills in street clothes.
Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana
Point-Spread: ULL -10.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: ULL 31.5 – USM 21
Weather: 72 degrees / 13% rain / 7 mph winds
Southern Miss:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 11 Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.